There is an increasing rise in the number of publications addressing social vulnerability, resilience, and adaptation (SVRA) aspects of natural hazards and climate change. Despite the abundance of research in this field, a systematic understanding of how these studies are theoretically grounded is lacking.

In this study, we conducted a systematic review of 4432 articles that address SVRA across a range of disciplinary fields (e.g. psychology, sociology, geography, mathematics) and natural hazards (e.g. floods, droughts, landslides, storm surges, wildfires, tsunamis, earthquakes, and volcano eruptions). We investigate the extent to which these studies explicate the frameworks, theoretical constructs or theories they rely on.

Our findings indicate that about 90% of the studies under consideration do not explicitly refer to a theoretical underpinning. Overall, theories focusing on individuals' SVRA were more frequent than those focusing on systems, society, groups, and networks. Furthermore, the uptake of theories varied according to the hazard investigated and field of knowledge, being more frequent in wildfire and flood studies and articles published in social science journals.

We argue that the abundance of empirical material in SVRA research that lacks explicit theoretical grounding is objectionable. As a result, SVRA research seems to spin in circles: researchers repeatedly conduct similar analyses in different geographical settings with inconsistent or incommensurable findings. Thus, we recommend making theoretical considerations salient to foster more transparent, comparable, and robust empirical research on SVRA.

How to cite: Madruga de Brito, M., Kuhlicke, C., Bartkowski, B., Botzen, W., Doğulu, C., Han, S., Hudson, P., Karanci, A. N., Klassert, C., Otto, D., Scolobig, A., Moreno Soares, T., and Rufat, S.: A systematic review of the use of theories in social vulnerability, resilience, and adaptation research, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-1308, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-1308, 2023.

With the loss of 180 lives, the 2021 flood was not only one of the most devastating natural disasters in Germany history, it can also be seen as another missed opportunity to use the reconstruction phase to rebuild more resilient and sustainable settlement structures. This paper presents first results of a study aiming at identify key contextual factors driving the reconstruction process. Therefore it relies on the concept of hydro-social territories. With this analytical framework we focus on social practice and narratives and how they interact with multiple human and non-human factors. By doing so, we attempt to move away from an external mechanistic perspective on reconstruction efforts towards an endemic perspective that is interested in social practices and the associated diversity of perspectives of different actors. The analysis is based on 30+ qualitative interviews conducted with representatives of the civil society, planning agency, municipalities as well as water management authorities. Based on the interviews we identify some of the key cultural, political, institutional and social contextual factors shaping how hydro-social territories are reconfigurated.

How to cite: Kuhlicke, C., Reckhaus, Z., Mariana, D. B., and Danny, O.: Reconfigurating hydro-social territories after the 2021 flood in Germany. Pathways towards resilience?, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-9134, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-9134, 2023.

Successful operationalisations for sustainable and resilient climate risk- (CRM), disaster risk- (DRM) and crisis management (CM) in general is not easy for affected disaster-damaged regions. In case, different regions are concurrently impacted, co-benefiting communication, assessment, planning and management, decision-making as well as benchmarking in kinds of well working solutions for similar needs or risks in each region are not effortless. If regions are not lying within same administrative coordination responsibility, the more complex coordination is getting. The chance for well adjusted planning, data and communication channels within a Transboundary Systems Provision (TSP) must be critically evaluated in case of aiming to strengthen sustainability and resilience. Especially in case of a combined, region-overarching (benchmarking) perspective and planning for a sustainable CRM, DRM and CM, the to be implemented topics of sustainability, land- and environmental systems thinking, and transformative science for enhancing an optimized land resilience are aggravating a fluent, transparent and on the ground processing way.
Catalyst of this research was the flood disaster in mid-July 2021 and simultaneously threatening COVID-19 pandemics in Ahr valley in the states of Rhineland-Palatinate and North Rhine-Westphalia, surrounding regions in Germany, and in Belgium. Topical entrance into this case study was a (short-termed) initiative field and action research about sustainable development, resilience and general planning combined land- and environmental systems processing, leading to constructive solution transferors against devastating natural hazards for CRM, DRM and post-catastrophic CM.
A by the author for Lusatia, implied Spree Forest Region, possibly for worldwide regions developed, applied innovative theoretical approach, and verbal-argumentative model was approved for operationalizing into the flood-destroyed Ahr Valley Region. Spatially determining different sustainable and resilient aspects through the regional planning level, landscape scale with the planning instrument of landscape units, and by the help of the operationally implanting „Climate Adaptive Land Use within Landscape Units and Drought and Water Management” (CA(LU)²WA) proactive landscape meta-model should guide into a chance for TSP.
The first results of the short-termed field research being based on past, long-termed theoretical combined applied research pillars show that the framework with its applied instrumentations such as the landscape units and the transboundary river basin areas is not only specialized on ideal „prototype region“ of Lusatia and inhabited Spree Forest. Instead, it is able to overbridge risks and needs parallelly in different, and diverse regions while being a transmitter to enable TSP, transformative research for more (land) resilience, sustainability and practice processes in the Ahr Valley and surrounding regions.
Gaining regional (land) resilience in the flood disaster-, COVID-19-impacted Ahr valley together with the further affected regions require greatest amounts of data availability and transferability and in the same time communication, courage, and hope. TSP and the CA(LU)²WA framework is coupled with innovative and well-known assessment methodologies to rebuild simultaneously several destroyed regions, reconstructing them together in a high-ranged, sustainable, resilient future-saving, capacity-building flagship way. This research supports processes around the four pillars in sustainable development and resilience transformations on regional level and landscape scale for buffering future climate change-, disaster-, crisis-related pressures.

How to cite: Reinstädtler, S.: Transboundary systems provision for sustainable and resilient climate risk-, disaster risk- and crisis management in the flood disaster-damaged Ahr Valley in Germany - Implementing Spree Forest and Lusatia Regions Land and Environmental Systems Model, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-17119, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-17119, 2023.

The narrow valley parts of the Ahr river are located in a low mountain region on the edge of the Volcanic Eifel. In July 2021, a flash flood formed, and energetic water masses with high flow velocities drove significant morphodynamic change and sediment displacements along the Ahr river. The riverbed and the banks experienced erosion, and floodplains showed slope erosion by surface runoff. In other locations, we observed floodplain sedimentation and riverbed infill. Large sediment lenses formed on floodplains, and gravel bank deposits, partly high in organic content, changed the local morphology of the Ahr river. Sorting of the grain size of deposited sediments from coarse to fine was observed providing clues to the complex flow conditions. The change of the river-course was overall limited due to the high urban development and man-made riverbank constraints by infrastructure. In this context, the prediction of future morphological changes in the Ahr river is essential for sustainable water resource management, especially in the context of reaching the goals set by the European Water Framework Directive (EU-WFD). If not properly accounted for, future maintenance and engineering measures affecting the river-course may not only be costly but also introduce new hazards. This study investigates morphological changes in different sections of the Ahr river as a result of the July 2021 mega-event at different spatial scales. Those changes were evaluated in a historic context to compare the observations to theoretical morphological developments of the river unaffected by anthropogenic development. The Lateral Mobility Index (LMI) is used to evaluate stream bed changes. In the upper reaches of the Ahr river, confining bedrock limits morphological riverbed changes as a natural geological boundary. Thus, most morphological changes in the Ahr river occurred in the lower reaches. The LMI caused by the mega-event in the 2.7 km long lower river reach up to the Rhine confluence is 1.2, which indicates severe changes in the river course. However, the LMI between the early 19^th century and the mid-19^th century is 2.2, which could result from an increase of confining anthropogenic boundaries within the last 200 years, which further caused reduced river structures and a reduced alluvial corridor. Anastomosis structures with a total channel width of up to 250 meters in the early 19^th century are non-existent anymore, and the total channel width was reduced to 20 meters on average before the flood event. Although the total channel widened up to 90 meters after the flood event, the structural diversity only slightly increased. Concluding, morphological changes by the flood event in mid-July 2021 did not generally develop towards near-natural river structure, likely resulting from the anthropogenic hard boundaries constraining flow. River engineering actions in the course of rehabilitation after the flood event need to be evaluated on different spatial scales to assess sustainable water resource management for the future.

How to cite: Wolf, S., Burghardt, L., Stark, N., Gardner, M., Lemnitzer, A., Müller, J., Klopries, E., and Schüttrumpf, H.: Historic changes in river course and morphodynamics of the Ahr river within geological and anthropogenic boundaries, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-2102, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-2102, 2023.

Extreme floods are increasing in times of climate change. Flood prevention must consistently take this into account, especially in densely populated areas. The flood event in 2021 in western Germany and also extreme floods in many other regions of the world have shown how necessary this is.

In the densely populated Emscher region with 2.7 million inhabitants, between Dortmund and Duisburg, this problem must be addressed just as urgently. By building efficient flood protection systems, the Emschergenossenschaft has enabled one of Germany's largest metropolitan regions to emerge. In accordance with legal requirements, the flood protection systems in the Emscher region are designed up to an HQ200. Nevertheless, extreme precipitation events can lead to extreme floods that exceed the capacity of the flood protection systems. Here, more far-reaching measures must be initiated, which are brought together in the program "Roadmap Crisis Flood". It was set up in March 2022 with an investment volume of around €500 million over 15 years. To strengthen flood resilience in a changing climate, five action areas have been identified:

1. The creation of additional retention areas requires a different approach to undeveloped land than in the past. This applies in particular to the realization of easements to enable the flooding of emergency polders. Also, more space must be made available for the river in order to be able to slow down the flood wave through larger floodplain areas.

2. An essential field of action is adaptation. This applies to flood protection facilities in order to avoid total failure during extreme events with major damage. Bridges must also be adapted in terms of their performance in order to make backwater effects as manageable as possible. Last but not least, the buildings of the Emschergenossenschaft must be protected against heavy rain and flood damage in accordance with the floodlabel.

3. The increase of heavy rainfall events is causing flood events with faster flood waves. For this reason, flood forecasting must be more highly resolved in its temporal and spatial discretization. The flood forecasts currently available for the Emscher will be extended to more tributaries. The gauging network will have to be expanded and made more flood-resilient for this purpose. A high frequency of forecasts must be available, especially for small catchments.

4. Flood risk management is joint tasks with distributed responsibilities. Here, functioning communication and cooperation are essential. In order to support this, relevant information on the flood situation is made available via a portal for public agencies and the population. This information must be understood and lead to adequate actions. Dealing with uncertainties of the flood forecast is of particular importance here.

5. The question arises whether the preparation for extreme events above the design limit can be handled sufficiently well with the legal framework available today. Ideas for improving further legal and political frameworks at federal and state level are discussed.

It is obvious that the deliberate handling of extreme events leads to actions that need to go beyond the existing FRM. These are presented for discussion.

How to cite: Johann, G., Pfister, A., and Teichgräber, B.: Dealing with extreme floods in densely populated areas, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-7826, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-7826, 2023.

Although DRR (disaster risk reduction) policies have been proved effective in some regions, policy implementation lacks a sufficient evidence-based evaluation process. This study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of DRR policies, including setting up early warning systems, constructing disaster shelters, and incentive mechanisms. By using the agent-based modeling (ABM) approach, a policy evaluation model was developed to integrate human individual differences during disaster events. The model was calibrated to simulate the DRR policy implementation in a debris flow event at Longchi town, China. The main findings are: 1) setting up an early warning system was the most effective measures and fundamental of community-based disaster risk management as the system had contributed to a 30.06% casualties reduction in the case of Longchi town; 2) individual perception on DRR policies was at large variance which influenced the policy effectiveness; 3) marginal benefits of policies to raise public willingness might decrease quickly. Therefore, individual perception and behaviors have a significant impact on the effectiveness of DRR. This study provided an evidence-based approach to the policy-makers to formulate the most cost-effective DRR policies.

How to cite: Lei, Y. and Wu, S.: Integrate human dynamics in disaster risk management: An agent-based approach to evaluate policy effectiveness, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-11182, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-11182, 2023.

Residents are increasingly expected to take adaptive actions to reduce risks and to strengthen resilience in the case of extreme events, like floods (e.g. Begg et al., 2017). In recent years, the focus of flood risk management (FRM) has shifted from structural, mainly government-led interventions, to more integrated approaches which stress the responsibility of households to protect themselves from flood damages (Kuhlicke et al., 2020). However, especially in the case of pluvial flooding, the uptake of measures at the household level is still low. To appraise the adaptive behaviour of households, research typically uses adaptive capacity as the main proxy (Grothmann & Reusswig, 2006; Mortreux et al. 2020). However, it is increasingly clear that high levels of adaptive capacity do not necessarily lead to high levels of private adaptation (Mortreux et al. 2020). A better theoretical and empirical understanding of the gap between adaptive capacity and action is therefore urgently needed.

This paper, therefore, addresses the following questions:

(1) What kinds of measures are (not) taken by what kind of households?

(2) What are the most decisive factors explaining why households become active to protect themselves?

(3) How are the taken measures related to the adaptive capacity of households?

Our study is based on a survey conducted in early 2022 with 1,615 households in a region in Upper Bavaria (Oberland region), Germany, which is heavily affected by increasing floods. Being one of the most affluent and dynamically growing regions in Germany, the adaptive capacity of households and communities is comparatively high. Yet, adaptation action remains at a rather low level. Therefore, the study region forms an excellent test case to investigate a possible “capacity-action gap”.

By means of descriptive statistics and regression analysis, different sets of private measures (building measures and insurance uptake) are linked to household profiles. Thereby, exposure, vulnerability, and different dimensions of the adaptive capacity of the household are taken into account. Our results indicate a “capacity-action-gap” (Schubert et al., forthcoming). In fact, variables such as property ownership, risk awareness and previous flood experience have far more explanatory power whereas classical adaptive capacity indicators such as education and income only serve as proxies for a few related variables (e.g., property ownership and coping capacity).

With these insights into households’ practices and perceptions, we want to contribute to a more nuanced and critical discussion on the trend of individualizing responsibilities in FRM. Thus, the question is how to achieve a resilient society in the coming years, if even those households which are endowed with sufficient resources cannot be expected to adapt out of their own free choice and on their own.

How to cite: Schubert, A., von Streit, A., and Garschagen, M.: Unravelling the „capacity-action-gap”: An exploration of the difficult role of adaptive capacity in explaining the uptake of private flood risk adaptation measures, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-15522, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-15522, 2023.

The main purpose of this study was to assess the level of knowledge, attitude, and practice (KAP) of flood-affected communities toward volunteerism. The study focused on a gender perspective to show the level of differences. The study followed a quantitative approach to collect, analyze, and present the data. A total of 410 samples were randomly selected for the study. A structured questionnaire with bivariate and multivariate indicators was used to collect data. Chi-square test, t-test, central tendency analysis, and variance analysis were performed to assess the differences between female and male responses. Results showed that there is a significant difference between female and male community members in terms of knowledge and attitude toward flood volunteerism. Female members were more aware of flood-related impacts (p<0.05) and were more knowledgeable of the importance of flood volunteers (p<0.05). On the other hand, male members were more interested to become flood volunteers (p<0.05) and had skills to share with others (p<0.001). The study didn’t find any significant differences in practices related to flood volunteerism between men and women. The study is conducted to show the importance of communities in flood risk management. A community with a higher level of knowledge, attitude, and practice toward flood volunteerism can be a great resource. The research indicated some policy-level implications which are implementable and attainable for ensuring a resilient country. 

How to cite: Chisty, M. A.: Knowledge, Attitude, and Practice Toward Flood Volunteerism in Bangladesh: A Gender-based Analysis with Policy Implications, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-213, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-213, 2023.

Cross-cutting industries such as tourism face many risks due to an increase of hazards as well as underlying socio-economic drivers. These developments have reinforced the necessity to build resilience and include risk-informed management in tourism. While these approaches have evolved as key concepts in research, development practice, and in the private sector, tourism destinations in the Global South often lack data, financial resources, or institutional capacities for analysing and managing risks and build resilience. The project ‘Destination Resilience’ examined how disaster resilience in tourism destinations in the Global South can be best analysed and strengthened. We developed a 5-step approach that supports the analysis and management of different risks in tourism destinations and involves a wide set of tourism actors from private and public sectors to enhance the overall resilience of their destinations. The 5-step approach consists of a variety of participatory methods including focus groups, gallery walks, workshop discussions and questionnaires and was implemented in Sri Lanka, the Dominican Republic, and Namibia. Following the 5-step approach, we analysed the tourism system, identified key risks for tourism in the given destinations (e.g., floods, landslides, hurricanes, and droughts) and explored options for action to build disaster resilience. Based on an evaluation workshop, content analysis and expert interviews, we explored and tested the approach in terms of its social functionality, technical applicability, and cultural transferability as well as its ability to improve risk awareness among tourism actors. Our findings indicate that addressing risks in tourism destinations is complex due to the systemic character and complex interplay of risks and the tourism industry. The findings also highlight the importance (a) to engage a wide range of stakeholders to overcome issues such as data availability or lack of feeling of responsibility; (b) to address tourism destinations as systems consisting of a wide set of actors; (c) to use common terminology across sectors and countries; and (d) to proactively address risk in tourism destinations. The described research activities have been implemented by DKKV and Futouris with support of the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH on behalf of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ).

How to cite: Eckert, E., Posch, E., and Thiebes, B.: Resilience analysis in tourism destinations: Reflections from a development cooperation project, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-15855, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-15855, 2023.

The coastal region is confronted with increasing risk due to multiple factors such as climate change, urbanization, and the concentration of infrastructure. Under climate change, coastal hazards such as hurricanes and floods are expected to increase in intensity and frequency. This project first presents a conceptual framework of assessing coastal resilience by linking hazards, social vulnerability, and risk decision making in the coastal setting. It then presents two studies conducted in two coastal cities from the United States to illustrate this framework. Houston in Texas is selected as the location for the first study. Houston has experienced a few devastating floods in recent history. It is thus imperative to assess flood risk in this city through a comprehensive approach by considering both flood susceptibility and social vulnerability. This study first assesses flood susceptibility by applying Random Forest (RF) algorithm on remotely sensed data. It then combines flood susceptibility with social vulnerability to generate a comprehensive assessment of flood risk in Houston. New Orleans in Louisiana is selected as the location for the second study. This study first proposes a framework to study urban disaster resilience by closing the gap between municipal hazard mitigation plans and residents’ risk perceptions. Through survey research and policy analysis, this study identifies a gap between the municipal approach to climate change mitigation and the concern and expectation of actions the residents hold regarding the future effects of climate change. The study ends with recommending municipal hazard mitigation plans to reconsider risks of climate change and providing small-scale incentives to coastal residents in order to maximize resilience toward coastal hazards in the future.

How to cite: Shao, W., Cass, E., and Dey, H.: Towards a comprehensive assessment of coastal resilience: research at the intersection of hazards, vulnerability and risk decision making, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-9074, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-9074, 2023.

The question of how to live in a rapidly urbanising, climate change impacted world with more frequent and intense heatwaves is more urgent than ever. While recent heatwaves have increased awareness of the immediacy and seriousness of the heatwave threat in some regions, significant questions remain about if and how better awareness will translate into effective resilience building actions that target the underlying drivers of heat risk. Many challenges remain in improving heatwave resilience including an absence of data and understanding about the direct and indirect linkages between heat impacts which have been problematic for the governance of anticipatory planning and action to mitigate risks.

This presentation outlines the key findings from our experience of adapting the approach of the Zurich Flood Resilience Alliance for measuring community flood resilience, to heatwaves. It is widely recognized that operationalising and measuring progress in building resilience is extremely challenging, yet measurement is critical for more accurate and nuanced tracking of key indicators to inform prioritisation, policy, and planning. Using examples of indicators – called ‘sources of resilience’ - from the heatwave framework we will illustrate the way in which we have responded to key themes, specifically the resilience of heatwave for critical urban systems; heatwave vulnerability and equity; and heatwave governance and capacity. It is hoped that this approach can help lead to more anticipatory and integrated heatwave responses that are community specific, and which can help enable transformational change. We also show how we have attempted to integrate climate change adaptation planning into the resilience measurement. The framework we present here is, to our knowledge, the only standardized and holistic, yet globally applicable, heatwave resilience measurement framework available.

How to cite: Rubenstein, N. and Keating, A.: Systems-based framework for measuing heatwave resilience, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-9564, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-9564, 2023.

The Flood Resilience Measurement for Communities (FRMC) framework and tool was developed with the aim to measure community level resilience to flooding in a reliable and useful way when “no general measurement framework for disaster resilience had been empirically verified yet.” (Winderl, 2014) Since its inception in 2013, the framework and tool has been implemented in more than 226 flood prone communities across the world and has been used as an evaluation metric to measure progress and helps to identify the possible areas for intervention. Discussing the results of the FRMC with the community can ideally empower them to take ownership of their flood resilience path by identifying goals and actions.

This study uses an inventory of more than 140 unique interventions implemented in the Flood Resilience Alliance communities to assess whether the FRMC was indeed informative in selecting and evaluating resilience-building interventions. We first conduct a ground truthing analysis of whether interventions correspond to each communities’ needs (lower grades of different sources of resilience). We further align and cross-check our empirical findings to field interview results. Second, we assess FRMC’s applicability to measure interventions using correlation analysis and applying scenario analysis to project flood resilience paths. Our study will contribute to developing resilience measurement frameworks that intentionally provide self-assessment information for decision-making.

How to cite: Hyun, J. H., Velev, S., Rubenstein, N., Richter, M., Lee, D. K., and Mechler, R.: Evaluation of resilience-building interventions according to resilience measurement frameworks: Empirical findings from the Flood Resilience Alliance communities, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-15176, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-15176, 2023.

Despite the ongoing challenge of the operationalization of the concept of resilience, it has become a significant global political agenda. However, the lack of integration among the sectors involved – academia, politicians, civil society, and local practitioners, has resulted in problems in the usefulness and efficacy in the operationalisation of the concept in the grassroots.  The lack of participation at the grassroots and the local practitioners’ level in developing indicators that has caused gaps in the definition, assessment, and operationalisation of the concept. The measurement of community resilience is considered a significant step towards reducing risk to disasters and increasing disaster preparedness and the capacity to adapt to various kinds of disaster. Assessment tools for resilience that were developed without the consideration of the insights, perspectives, knowledge, and experience of the stakeholders are in the danger of serving a different purpose which they were originally built for.

This paper introduces the Island Community Resilience to Disasters (ICRED) approach. An approach that is integrated, taking into account the different facets of a small island community’s resilience to disasters and aggregating the various indicators under the themes of small island disaster resilience. This approach is also multi-stakeholder, considering all the perspectives of the various stakeholders that play a role in the disaster resilience of a small island community – from the communities on ground, to the local decision-makers to the experts who work in the disaster risk management field.

How to cite: Talubo, J. P., Morse, S., and Saroj, D.: ICRED: A multi-stakeholder approach for assessing the resilience to disaster of small island communities, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-13586, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-13586, 2023.

The Lower Mekong Basin (LMB) is a subsidiary region of the Mekong River, with approximately 10 million people directly dependent on the river for livelihood and economic activities. However, communities in the region are increasingly exposed to multiple hazards that have significant direct and indirect impacts on their livelihoods. The Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research, Japan supported project aims to develop a multi-stakeholder Livelihood Security and Resilience Assessment (LiSeRA) framework by studying the dimensions and factors influencing livelihood security and resilience in communities living in the LMB region.

This paper studies the multi-hazard scenario and impacts in the LMB region, the interlinkages between livelihood and resilience, and proposes a localized assessment framework that can be used by stakeholders in decision-making process. Floods, droughts and tropical storms were identified as primary natural hazards, while a multi-hazard assessment highlighted a wide spatial variation in the hazard levels across the region. The proposed framework provides a tool to measure the multi-hazard livelihood security and resilience in LMB communities, and can be used by government authorities and development partners in planning and implementing mitigation and preparedness activities to manage and reduce the risk of hazards.

How to cite: Baskota, A., Pal, I., Dhungana, G., Udmale, P., Gadhawe, M., Doydee, P., Nguyen, T., and Seak, S.: Assessing Multi-Hazard Livelihood Security and Resilience of Lower Mekong Basin Communities, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-644, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-644, 2023.

Systems such as green roofs, constructed wetlands and green open spaces can play important roles in adapting to climate change. While it is generally accepted that these systems increase our resilience to heatwaves and floods, more research is necessary to identify context-appropriate indicators to monitor the short- and long-term benefits of nature-based solutions. This is particularly important in the context of informal settlements, areas characterised by a reduced access to infrastructure and resources, and often more vulnerable and exposed to environmental hazards. In order to assess the effects of nature-based solutions in informal settlements, we review and select indicators of resilience from the literature of ecosystem services and apply them to two case studies of climate resilience-building projects in Bangkok (Thailand) and in Honiara (Solomon Islands). The projects include community gardens, tree planting and riverine vegetation restoration initiatives. Based on interviews with the implementers, we interrogate how each project selected and implemented nature-based solutions and infer a series of indicators that can be used to measure the process of using nature-based solutions to strengthen resilience. We identify, for each of the cases, indicators that assess (i) the physical extent of nature-based solutions, (ii) the provision of resilience-related ecosystem services and (iii) the benefits of these services to the community. Based on the indicators, we propose a monitoring framework for each of the projects to evaluate if and how the interventions improved climate resilience in the long term. Drawing on the lessons from these two case studies, we stress the importance of monitoring and assessing the effects of nature-based solutions using context-appropriate indicators of ecosystem services and resilience. Furthermore, we highlight challenges for monitoring of community gardens and riparian revegetation initiatives, given that such systems often affect multiple social, economic and environmental aspects of resilience. These findings contribute to a growing body of knowledge of examples of how nature-based solutions can be assessed, monitored and modified to better respond to the effects of climate change in the Asia-Pacific region.

How to cite: Wolff, E. and Hamel, P.: Measuring the Effects of Nature-based Solutions for Climate Resilience in Informal Settlements in the Asia-Pacific, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-4594, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-4594, 2023.

The resilience of electric power system is critical to economic prosperity, as well as public health and safety. In the Northeastern United States, where severe weather events occur throughout the year, it is important to quantify the weather-induced power outages and understand the impact of climate change on power system resilience in the future. This study focuses on assessing the future resilience of the power grid for a service territory in the Northeastern United States, by developing a holistic framework that employs high-resolution climate data along with the power outage prediction models (OPMs). The OPMs are a group of machine-learning based models designed to predict the amount of power outages for different types of weather events. The climate data used in this study are based on selected General Circulation Model (GCM) products that follow two Representative Concentration Pathways (namely RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), which are statistically bias-corrected over an 18-km grid. The climate data are, then, used to identify and classify the possible weather-related outage events and quantify associated number of power outages by OPMs. The results aim to, i) quantify the severity and frequency of the occurrence of weather-induced power outages in the next 40 years (2020-2060); and ii) provide a basis for a comparison of the difference of power outages under the two RCP scenarios and the current climate conditions. This information can be useful for making decisions on power grid strengthening plans that accommodate potential future climate change impacts on the power grid resilience. 

How to cite: Zhang, X., Anagnostou, E., Emmanouil, S., Yang, F., and Cerrai, D.: Changes of Electric Distribution Network Storm Outages in Future Climate Scenarios: Evaluation for a Service Territory in Northeastern United States, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-9211, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-9211, 2023.

Tools for measuring the resilience of infrastructure systems are necessary for engineering the increase in the resilience of communities to natural hazards. Such tools can also inform early and effective disaster risk mitigation actions that lead to rapid post-disaster recovery of the built environment, providing the foundation for a swift restoration of economic and social activities in the affected communities. We present iRe-CoDeS, a framework that measures the resilience of infrastructure systems by dynamically simulating their post-disaster changes in the ability to supply resources to users as well as the change in users demands during the post-disaster recovery period. The iRe-CoDeS framework builds on top of well-established regional hazard and risk assessment tools and extends them by simulating the post-disaster recovery of the built environment and its interdependent infrastructure systems. The interdependencies among different systems are captured at the component level. Apart from providing resource supply, each component of an infrastructure system can have a demand for resources provided by other systems (e.g., a cellular tower providing communication services requires electric power). The iRe-CoDeS framework simulates the flow of resources among components at every time step of the recovery simulation and constrains the component’s ability to supply resources based on its demand fulfillment. Lack of Resilience (LoR) of an infrastructure system is used as its resilience metric: it represents the unmet demand of the community for a resource that the considered infrastructure system is providing. Such a resilience metric is particularly suited for assessing the impact of component interdependencies on community resilience and evaluating community resilience goals. The application of the iRe-CoDeS framework will be briefly illustrated in a case study that addresses the recovery of housing in North-East San Francisco after a hypothetical earthquake. Our recent work on applying the iRe-CoDeS framework for measuring and operationalizing seismic resilience in Switzerland will also be presented.

How to cite: Blagojević, N. and Stojadinović, B.: iRe-CoDeS: A framework for demand/supply-based resilience assessment of interdependent civil infrastructure systems, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-6443, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-6443, 2023.

The recent increase in the frequency of flood episodes in cities of sub-Saharan Africa reveals the extent to which these cities are ill-equipped and prepared to reduce, adapt, learn and transform from future risks. One of such cities is Lagos, the foremost manufacturing and port city in West Africa. In recent years, the city has experienced frequent unprecedented flood events with devastating direct and indirect impacts on health, social, economic, and financial systems, notably for the vulnerable. Previous efforts by the state government to manage flood impacts have been towards distributing relief materials and relocating flood victims to temporary shelters. The repercussions of frequent extreme flood events necessitate the city to refocus efforts on climate-resilient recovery and not just response. Climate-resilient recovery entails taking a step back, and systemically reviewing all hazards and impacts to be expected, drivers of vulnerability and how to recover in an inclusive, equitable and resilient manner. This study therefore aim to understand the recovery process after previous flood events to build resilient equitable futures in this low-lying city. A multi-methods approach, which includes in-depth interviews, grey materials, and policy document analysis, was adopted to assess the impacts of flood risks, recovery experiences, as well as conceptualize and identify recovery indicators and governance strategies in the study area. Of particular interest is the exploration of the extent to which the current existing institutions and policy frameworks have been a barrier or enabler for climate-resilient recovery and what we can learn from this about how institutions and policy frameworks can build resilience after extreme events. We argue that institutions and the associated policy frameworks and political will play an essential role in building holistic and comprehensive climate-resilient recovery to extreme weather events. These themes have been explored within the broader scope of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015 - 2030.

How to cite: Okunola, O. and Werners, S.: Recovery Pathways from Extreme Flood Events: Lessons and Experiences of Flooding in Lagos, Nigeria, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-15302, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-15302, 2023.

How to cite: Murdock, H., Heidenreich, A., Bubeck, P., and Thieken, A. H.: Analysing Emergency Response with an Online Survey of Local Residents following the July 2021 Flood Event in Western Germany, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-8809, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-8809, 2023.

Heavy flash floods in Germany, which occurred in the aftermath of intense and long-lasting rainfalls (up to 150-200 l/m² within 48 h; CEDIM, 2021) in July 2021, led to serious damage to people, buildings and infrastructure. According to CEDIM (2021), the flash-flood caused at least 170 fatalities and 820 injuries. It is expected that it will take several years for buildings and infrastructure to recover from this catastrophic event.

The Ahr valley on the border between North Rhine-Westphalia and Rhineland-Palatinate (Germany) was particularly affected by the flood and was therefore selected as study area for in-situ investigations. These were conducted approximately one month after the event (August 17-19, 2021), and served to systematically assess the flood-induced building damage in nine villages. Damage was recorded on the basis of photos, flood measurements and personal conversations with affected residents (Korswagen et al., 2022).

In the aftermath of the survey, the information collected was used for describing the flood-induced damage in detail and to assess the processes that led to the structural failures. As key-findings, three main processes were identified as significantly accountable for flood induced damage to buidings:

• Hydraulic loads: The survey revealed that the water that penetrated the interior of the building neutralized the hydrostatic pressure acting from the outside. Nevertheless, hydrodynamic forces were present, leading first to damage to the facade and then to structural failure. Further damage was caused by different water levels around the buildings, which led to structural stresses due to an uneven distribution of the load.
• Scour and bank erosion exposed and undermined building foundations. Shallow-founded buildings adjacent to the river banks were the most vulnerable. Buildings on the outside and inside of river bends in particular need further attention in this regard.
• Debris: The effects of water-borne debris played a significant role during the flood, not only due to direct impact damage, but also because debris accumulated and became entangled, forming debris-dams upstream of buildings. Accumulations at building openings resulted in increased impact areas and higher water-level gradients inside and outside of buildings, leading to significantly higher structural loads on buildings. In particular, it was noted that buildings located on the upstream part of the villages were more affected by debris accumulation.

Overall, the in-situ study highlights the importance of improving land use planning rules and guidelines, considering lessons learned from the July 2021 flash flood. Examples may include the need to reinforce buildings near river bends or in flood-prone areas with deep foundations, develop debris management plans that take into account the additional effects of debris during flash floods, and review, and if necessary, expand no-build zone regulations currently in place.

CEDIM (2021). Hochwasser Mitteleuropa, Juli 2021 (Deutschland). CEDIM Forensic Disaster Analysis (FDA) Group – Bericht 1 "Nordrhein-Westfalen & Rheinland-Pfalz". Karlsruher Institut für Technologie, Karlsruhe, Germany. DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000135730

Korswagen, P.A., Harish, S., Oetjen, J., Wüthrich, D. (2022). Post-flood field survey of the Ahr Valley (Germany): Building damages and hydraulic aspects. 4TU Research Data, Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands. DOI: 10.4233/uuid:3cafd772-facd-4e3a-8b1a-cee978562ff1

How to cite: Selvam, H., Oetjen, J., Wüthrich, D., Korswagen, P. A., and Schüttrumpf, H.: Evaluation of building damage during the July 2021 flash-flood in the Ahr Valley (Germany), EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-12828, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-12828, 2023.

The flood event in the Ahr valley in mid-July 2021 surpassed all previous events since the installation of gauging stations on the river (Szymczak et al. 2022) between 1952 and 1991 (Land NRW 2022; LfU 2013a, 2013b). The high-energy flash flood caused severe damage (Kahle et al. 2022; Schüttrumpf et al. 2022), and several gauging stations were either destroyed or malfunctioned (Berkler et al. 2022).

As a part of flood prevention efforts, the systematic evaluation of potential retention areas supports the development of recommended measures. Depending on the availability of land and the type of flood event, technical measures can provide different retention volumes. These systems are effective for floods with different annual frequencies. If the flood of mid-July 2021 is used as a benchmark and if retention potentials should be activated for events of HQ₁₀₀ or higher, then approximately 20-35 million cubic meters of retention space would need to be kept available according to initial estimates. Natural measures, such as floodplain restoration and adapted land use practices, can provide additional retention potential.

The Ahr valley is very steep, with narrow forelands shaped by past floods. These conditions limit the potential for technical retention measures such as large dams. Additionally, the largest tributary only accounts for around 12 % of the total catchment area, thus no obvious location for a single universal retention measure exists. Around 55 % of the Ahr catchment is covered by forest, while around 7 % is urban or sealed, and vineyards only make up 1 %. However, improvements in land use practices and retention measures should still be considered. In the Ahr valley, there are approximately 31 square kilometres (~3 % of the catchment) of areas with a surface slope below 10 degrees outside of urban and industrial areas where the feasibility of retention measures can be examined. Promising areas must be balanced with a multitude of conflicting interests, such as nature conservation, regional and urban planning, or the interests of land owners.

Berkler SB, Bettmann T, Böhm M, Thomas N, Gerlach N, Hengst A, Henrichs Y, Heppelmann T, Iber C, Johst M, Lehmann H, Stickel S, van der Heijden S, Wallisch S (2022) Bericht: Hochwasser im Juli 2021, Mainz.

Kahle M, Kempf M, Martin B, Glaser R (2022) Classifying the 2021 ‘Ahrtal’ flood event using hermeneutic interpretation, natural language processing, and instrumental data analyses. Environ. Res. Commun. 4:51002. https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ac6657

Land NRW (2022) ELWAS-WEB: dl-de/by-2-0 (www.govdata.de/dl-de/by-2-0).

LfU (2013a) Messdaten: Pegel Bad Bodendorf / Gewässer: Ahr. Messdaten: Pegel Bad Bodendorf / Gewässer

LfU (2013b) Messdaten: Pegel Müsch / Gewässer: Ahr

Schüttrumpf H, Brüll C, Klopries E-M, Lehmkuhl F, Wolf SS (2022) Das Hochwasser 2021 in Nordrhein-Westfalen und Rheinland-Pfalz : Beobachtungen und Erfahrungen. In: Wasserwirtschaft im Klimawandel": digitale 55. Essener Tagung für Wasserwirtschaft, Institut für Siedlungswasserwirtschaft der RWTH Aachen University

Szymczak S, Backendorf F, Bott F, Fricke K, Junghänel T, Walawender E (2022) Impacts of Heavy and Persistent Precipitation on Railroad Infrastructure in July 2021: A Case Study from the Ahr Valley, Rhineland-Palatinate, Germany. Atmosphere 13:1118. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13071118

How to cite: Wingen, M., Wolf, S., Kroll, M., Sauter, H., Klopries, E., Guse, B., and Schüttrumpf, H.: A systematic screening for potential retention areas in the Ahr valley , EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-16327, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-16327, 2023.

Strategies and evaluation criteria for retention areas in reconstruction processes – new perspectives and open research questions based on the case study Ahr Valley

In summer 2021 parts of Western Germany, especially North-Rhine Westphalia and Rhineland Palatinate was hit severely by devastating floods resulting from  the cyclone "Bernd" with almost stationary and high precipitation of 115 mm rain in 72 h (Kreienkamp et al. 2021). The resulting damage of the flood event was the highest since decades in Germany with a high number of damaged buildings and infrastructure and around 189 fatalities (DKKV 2022). The Ahr-Valley in the federal state of Rhineland-Palatinate was the most severely affected region.

After one and a half years, the region and affected municipalities are still in the process of reconstruction and facing enormous challenges. Anyway, in order to better cope with future events the responsible planning authorities strive to develop strategies for flood prevention and flood risk reduction. In this regard, the identification of areas for effective water-retention measures and the designation of open corridors for runoff with reduced damage potential plays a crucial role. Possible measures range from adaptations in land use and cultivation patterns or nature based solutions to technical retention systems. Due to this variety of possible measures, which can have different resource requirements and different legal or financial dependencies, a systematic evaluation of potential measures is necessary.

Against this background, this study aims at answering the questions on how to systematize and prioritize measures for potential water-retention areas and lowering flood damage potential while considering constraints and challenges during the reconstruction process after a major flood. In addition to common planning criteria, aspects of land allocation need to be taken into account and different levels of feasibility of a certain measure need to be considered. Therefore, we analyze and systematize the multitude of possible retention measures. Based on this research and on expert discussions with relevant actors in the Ahr-Valley we present and discuss a set of criteria for evaluation.

The results of this study can help to inform political decision makers and planning authorities for land use and urban planning and support decisions on allocation of areas. Furthermore, the paper discusses which measures and strategies should be prepared long before a flood disaster for successful preparedness and improvement of flood prevention.

References

DKKV (Hrsg.,2022): Die Flutkatastrophe im Juli 2021. Ein Jahr danach: Aufarbeitung und erste Lehren für die Zukunft.DKKV-Schriftenreihe Nr. 62, Bonn

Kreienkamp F, Philip SY, Tradowsky JS, Kew SF, Lorenz P, Arrighi J, Belleflamme A, Bettmann T, Caluwaerts S, Chan SC (2021) Rapid attribution of heavy rainfall events leading to the severe flooding in Western Europe during July 2021

How to cite: Sauter, H., Trüdinger, A., Birkmann, J., Wolf, S., and Wingen, M.: Strategies and evaluation criteria for retention areas in reconstruction processes – new perspectives and open research questions based on the case study Ahr Valley, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-15551, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-15551, 2023.

Heavy rainfall and flooding hit central Europe in July 2021 - with the Ahr Valley in Rhineland-Palatinate attaining sad notoriety. More than 130 people died there, and more than 9,000 buildings were damaged or even destroyed [1]. As part of the BMBF-funded KAHR project, we conducted a comprehensive household survey in the county of Ahrweiler in the aftermath of the flood disaster, in which 516 affected persons participated. One focus of this survey was on prevention and precautionary measures.

It is striking that the majority of respondents rated all prevention fields as (very) important, from private building precautions, technical and natural flood protection and planning precautions to early warning and precautions by the insurance industry. In an earlier survey by Weißer et al. on preparedness for heavy rain events, the pattern was much more mixed [2]. It is also interesting to note that in our study private building precautions are ranked lowest (mean value), whereas in the study by Weißer et al. they are considered most important. 

Various aspects play an important role when deciding to implement precautionary measures. Respondents rated existence/availability of information on the effectiveness of the measure (mv = 4.99) as most important, followed by existence/availability of counseling and assistance services (mv = 4.85). Low financial expenditure (mv = 4.46) and acceptance of the measure in the household (mv = 4.43) are also considered very important by many. Slightly less important, on the other hand, appear the feasibility of the measure without external help (mv = 3.97), the low time expenditure (mv = 3.92), the acceptance in the community (mv = 3.83) and the joint implementation with other neighbors (mv = 3.31) - nevertheless, almost 30%, e.g., perceive the latter reason as (very) important in the decision for or against a precautionary measure. Neither age nor gender nor household income have a major influence on the rating of importance. Only household income has a weak effect on the reason of joint implementation with other neighbors (the lower the income, the more important the reason), as does gender on the reasons of feasibility without external help, availability of information on effectiveness, and availability of counseling and assistance services (these aspects tend to be more important for female respondents).

Furthermore, 71.2% of respondents disagree (at all) with the statement that flood prevention is primarily a task of private households. Yet, according to the German Water Resources Act, sec. 5 para. 2, every person who may be affected by floods is obliged to take flood precautions within their means.

The findings from such a survey can help to strengthen resilience building in the reconstruction after such a devastating disaster as well as likewise in the pre-disaster phase.

References

1. Die Landesregierung Rheinland-Pfalz. Ein Jahr Wiederaufbau in Rheinland-Pfalz nach der Naturkatastrophe vom 14./15. Juli 2021, Mainz, 2022. Available online: https://wiederaufbau.rlp.de/fileadmin/wiederaufbau/2022/07-Juli/Ein-Jahr-Wiederaufbau-in-RLP.pdf (accessed on 6 December 2022).

2. Weißer, B.V.; Jamshed, A.; Birkmann, J.; McMillan, J.M. Building Resilience After Climate-Related Extreme Events: Lessons Learned from Extreme Precipitation in Schwäbisch Gmünd. J. of Extr. Even. 2020, 07, 2050010, doi:10.1142/S2345737620500104.

How to cite: Truedinger, A., Sauter, H., and Birkmann, J.: Perspective of flood-affected households on flood prevention: The case of the Ahr Valley after the July 2021 flood disaster, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-7552, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-7552, 2023.

The occurrence of a disaster can significantly affect the functionality of an urban system, by causing a series of direct and indirect impacts on different sectors and infrastructures. UNDRR, in its definition of ‘resilience’, stresses the significance of preserving and restoring the basic structures and functions of a system through risk management, to support it in recovering from the effects of a hazard in a timely and efficient manner. Indeed, after the occurrence of a disaster, a minimum set of structures and functions have to be in place to guarantee the system's adequate operation and allow the urban system to begin the recovery process.

This research develops and applies the concept of the ‘basic minimum urban system’ (BMUS), as the subset of physical assets of the urban system to be preserved in order to ensure continuing recovery efforts after a disaster. The BMUS must be determined in accordance with some defined criteria that indicate the relative socio-economic worth of the various assets and the significance of their contribution to the urban system's performance. When the urban system is exposed to multiple and potentially interacting (such as cascading, consecutive, compound, etc.) risks, the assets' contribution to the system's ability to deal with these complex multi-risk conditions needs to be considered and integrated into the BMUS determination. 

In light of this, the goal of this work is to establish a methodological framework that combines participatory planning techniques (such as Delphi, fuzzy cognitive mapping, etc.) with quantitative data (like GDP, demography, etc.) analysis to model the urban system and ultimately identify its most crucial components and their interdependencies as the BMUS. 

Since an urban area's characteristics and identity have a significant impact on the determination of its important physical assets, the relevance of a certain physical asset to be included in the BMUS may differ from one urban system to another. As a result, the final suggested approach must be able to provide a broad framework that takes into account the unique characteristics and requirements of the urban system and its inhabitants. In this study, incorporating local knowledge for recognizing and representing distinctive characteristics of the urban area in the analysis is accomplished through stakeholders' involvement through a participatory method.

As a result, several indicators are developed to assess the significance of urban system components in a multi-risk environment exposed to earthquakes and floods, with a focus on improving the urban system's ability to recover from disasters. These indicators are designed to evaluate the relative socio-economic importance of various buildings and urban forms. Indicators are generated in two complementary approaches: 1) participatory with involving stakeholders to illustrate the various interdependencies (physical, functional, etc.) among urban system functions and 2) analysis of quantitative physical and socio-economic data that characterize the urban system and its constituent parts at three different spatial scales (e.g., macro, meso, micro). 

The developed indicators are tentatively tested for the Sanremo municipality of the Liguria region (Italy). With the aim of increasing ex-post recoverability, decision-makers could use these indicators as a basis to optimize their ex-ante investment. 

How to cite: Mohammadi, S., Cattari, S., Pirlone, F., Boni, G., and De Angeli, S.: Ex-ante recognition of the basic minimum urban system to improve the ex-post recovery process , EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-11964, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-11964, 2023.

According to Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction [GAR, 2022], under current climate conditions, the world number of disasters per year will increase by 40% by 2030. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC, 2021] highlights that human-induced climate change is already affecting the frequency of extreme weather and climate events, such as floods, heat waves, droughts, and cyclones. For this reason, in the coming years, impacts caused by natural disasters will become central in economic, social, and ecological domains. In this interdisciplinary and dynamic context where compound events will no longer be extraordinary phenomena, it appears essential to understand and investigate how a close natural disaster can occur in altered and dynamic conditions dissimilar from the standard ones and how this can influence and modify the consequences of such natural disasters.

In this context, resilience is a key element. White¹ explored community resilience as the capability to anticipate risk, limit impact, and recover rapidly from a natural disaster. According to the latter definition, resilience might become a valuable parameter to analyse post-event restoration. Several researchers have focused on introducing quantitative metrics to assess resilience (Bruneau², Cimellaro³, and Reed⁴ ). The main priority is comparing quantitative resilience measures to obtain a first step towards analysing the recovery phase of a flood event.

In our context,  resilience is defined according to the residual functionality of infrastructure or community, where functionality only refers to physical damage and not to a possible failure or interruption of service facilities. Therefore, the post-event recovery stage strongly affects residual functionality and resilience. A quantitative evaluation relies on calculating characteristic metrics such as the area under the restoration curve. Damage ratio, interarrival time, and recovery curve shape are the core of sensitivity analysis. The aim is to investigate how the interaction between these factors influences and modifies the system's resilience. Including the post-disaster restoration phase, by introducing dynamic vulnerability, allows to improve risk assessment and to provide decision-makers with a complete overview of impacts induced by compound events.

[1] White, R. K., Edwards, W. C., Farrar, A., & Plodinec, M. J. (2015). A Practical Approach to Building Resilience in America’s Communities. American Behavioral Scientist, 59(2), 200-219.

[2] Bruneau, M.; Chang, S.E.; Eguchi, R.T.; Lee, G.C.; O’Rourke, T.D.; Reinhorn, A.M.; Shinozuka, M.; Tierney, K.; Wallace, W.A.; von Winterfeldti, D. A Framework to Quantitatively Assess and Enhance the Seismic Resilience of Communities. Earthq. Spectra 2003, 19, 733–752.

[3] Cimellaro G, Reinhorn A, Bruneau M. Framework for analytical quantification of disaster resilience. Eng Struct 2010;32:3639–49.

[4] Reed, D.A.; Kapur, K.C.; Christie, R.D. Methodology for Assessing the Resilience of Networked Infrastructure. IEEE Syst. J. 2009, 3, 174–180.

How to cite: Borre, A., Trasforini, E., Ghizzoni, T., and Ottonelli, D.: Sensitivity analysis of post-event recovery stage: a new dynamic approach, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-11498, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-11498, 2023.