ST1.12 | Observing and modelling coronal mass ejections from the Sun to the heliosphere
EDI
Observing and modelling coronal mass ejections from the Sun to the heliosphere
Convener: Erika Palmerio | Co-conveners: David Barnes, Emma Davies, Nishtha Sachdeva, Judit Szente, Manuela Temmer
Orals
| Wed, 17 Apr, 16:15–18:00 (CEST)
 
Room 0.51
Posters on site
| Attendance Wed, 17 Apr, 10:45–12:30 (CEST) | Display Wed, 17 Apr, 08:30–12:30
 
Hall X3
Posters virtual
| Attendance Wed, 17 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST) | Display Wed, 17 Apr, 08:30–18:00
 
vHall X3
Orals |
Wed, 16:15
Wed, 10:45
Wed, 14:00
Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) can be listed amongst the most extreme manifestations of the Sun’s dynamic activity and are prominent drivers of space weather disturbances at Earth as well as other solar system bodies. Over the past few decades, remote-sensing and in-situ measurements as well as analytical and MHD modelling efforts have led to remarkable advances in our understanding of CMEs, but many open questions still stand. These include, for example, the formation and eruption mechanism(s) of CMEs, the factors that dictate their early evolution in the solar corona, their detailed 3D configuration as they propagate through interplanetary space, the processes at play during CME interactions with the structured solar wind and/or other transients, and the presence of pre-eruptive properties that can determine CME geoeffectiveness. As we approach the maximum of Solar Cycle 25, it is important to reassess our current knowledge of solar eruptions and to identify promising avenues to further improve our capabilities to observe, analyse, model, and forecast CMEs.

This session solicits contributions that focus on advancing CME science over a wide range of aspects and approaches. Presentations that we welcome include studies that employ remote-sensing and/or in-situ observations, modelling efforts that focus on CME eruption and/or propagation in the corona and heliosphere, and mission concepts that have the potential to significantly advance CME fundamental research. Particular emphasis will be given to contributions that employ novel theories, measurements, and/or techniques.

Orals: Wed, 17 Apr | Room 0.51

16:15–16:20
16:20–16:30
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EGU24-12577
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solicited
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On-site presentation
Phillip Hess, Robin Colaninno, Angelos Vourlidas, Russell Howard, Guillermo Stenborg, and Shaheda Shaik

Much of our current understanding of the internal structure of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) has been based on either high-resolution, multi-wavelength imaging near the Sun or in-situ crossings of a CME, typically near 1 au. Previous remote sensing instruments, observing the corona and heliosphere from close to 1 au, were able to observe CMEs in Thomson scattered white light but were limited in detail that could be resolved by the constraints imposed by observing from such a large distance. As a result, a thorough understanding of the bulk shape and leading-edge propagation in the heliosphere has been developed, but many open questions about the interior of a CME as well as its overall impact on the corona still remain open. Heliospheric Imager data from the Wide Field Imager for Solar Probe (WISPR) on board the Parker Solar Probe and the Solar Orbiter Heliospheric Imager (SoloHI) on board Solar Orbiter have provided new high-resolution imaging by observing from within the inner heliosphere and corona.  The unprecedented resolution of these observations allows us to directly address these key physical questions relating to the internal structure, coherency and evolution of coronal mass ejections as they propagate away from the Sun. Utilizing data from both of these instruments, we will show examples of the complex interior structures present in the images and explain the physical implications of these observations.

How to cite: Hess, P., Colaninno, R., Vourlidas, A., Howard, R., Stenborg, G., and Shaik, S.: New Insights on the Interiors of Coronal Mass Ejections from the WISPR and SoloHI Heliospheric Imagers, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-12577, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-12577, 2024.

16:30–16:40
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EGU24-13471
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solicited
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On-site presentation
Nada Al-Haddad, Mitchell Berger, Wenyuan Yu, Florian Regnault, Noé Lugaz, Charles Farrugia, and Bin Zhuang

Multi-spacecraft measurements of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have made advancements in understanding their complex magnetic configurations and structures in interplanetary space. Analysis techniques for single-spacecraft measurements were initially adapted, however, they fall short in fully leveraging the potential of multi-spacecraft data. Recent efforts have aimed to rectify this limitation by developing specialized analysis methods tailored explicitly for multi-spacecraft measurements. These advancements allow for a more comprehensive understanding of CMEs' structures, propagation, and aging.

Moreover, the existing models and theories used to interpret CME data often rely on assumptions that might oversimplify the complexities of these phenomena. To address this, newer models and numerical simulations are being developed to test and validate these assumptions, ensuring a more accurate representation of CME properties. In addition, mathematical tools capable of deriving the intricate topological properties inherent in CME structures in IP space need to be developed.

One crucial aspect highlighted in this presentation is the necessity for dedicated multi-spacecraft missions specifically designed to capture the variation scales of magnetic structures within CMEs. This emphasizes the importance of optimal spacecraft formations that can provide optimal measurements, that allows for a better understanding of the magnetic configuration and internal structures of CMEs.

How to cite: Al-Haddad, N., Berger, M., Yu, W., Regnault, F., Lugaz, N., Farrugia, C., and Zhuang, B.: Coronal Magnetic Eruptions: Observations, Models, and Techniques , EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-13471, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-13471, 2024.

16:40–16:50
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EGU24-240
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ECS
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On-site presentation
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Prateek Mayank, Bhargav Vaidya, Wageesh Mishra, and Dibyendu Chakrabarty

Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are key to solar eruptions and geomagnetic storms, heavily influenced by their interaction with solar wind streams. Accurately predicting CME trajectories and impacts hinges on understanding how they evolve within ambient solar wind. Despite numerous qualitative studies, a detailed quantitative analysis of these interactions, crucial for predicting CME behavior, remains elusive, primarily due to the challenges in isolating CMEs from the solar wind.

In the initial segment of the presentation, I'll introduce a newly developed MHD model, SWASTi, offering fresh insights into CME-SW interaction through simulation. Developed on the PLUTO code framework, SWASTi integrates a modified WSA relation for setting initial solar wind conditions and features two CME modules: a basic non-magnetized cone CME and an advanced flux rope CME. I'll also discuss a passive scalar tracing approach, developed for isolating CME structures in the heliosphere and analyzing their interactions with stream interaction regions.

Following this, I'll delve into an in-depth analysis of CME interactions with variable ambient solar wind and the resulting effects on their evolution. Our approach involves two distinct setups: the 'real case', utilizing the standard SWASTi-CME flux rope model, and the 'synthetic case', a controlled scenario with uniform solar wind speed to examine CME behavior without SIR interference. The synthetic case, acting as a benchmark, allows us to measure the impact of solar wind variability on CME characteristics, contrasting it with findings from the real case.

To conclude, the presentation will highlight our research's key outcomes, encompassing both qualitative and quantitative dimensions. These include examining the deformation of the CME front, and the evolution of thermal, kinetic, and magnetic pressures. Additionally, I will discuss the dynamic nature and implications of the drag force exerted on CMEs. We observed that the volume of CME follows a non-fractal power-law expansion over time, eventually reaching a balanced state.

How to cite: Mayank, P., Vaidya, B., Mishra, W., and Chakrabarty, D.: Exploring CME - Solar Wind Interaction in Heliosphere using SWASTi framework, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-240, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-240, 2024.

16:50–17:00
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EGU24-5664
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Yu Xu, Hongpeng Lu, and Hui Tian

The propagation direction and true velocity of a solar coronal mass ejection, which are among the most decisive factors for its geo-effectiveness, are difficult to determine through single-perspective imaging observations. Here we show that Sun-as-a-star spectroscopic observations, together with imaging observations, could allow us to solve this problem. Using observations of the Extreme Ultraviolet Variability Experiment (EVE) onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), we found clear blueshifted secondary emission components in extreme-ultraviolet spectral lines during a solar eruption on 2021 October 28. From simultaneous imaging observations, we found that the secondary components are caused by a mass ejection from the flare site. We estimated the line-of-sight (LOS) velocity of the ejecta from both the double Gaussian fitting method and the red-blue asymmetry analysis. The results of both methods agree well with each other, giving an average LOS velocity of the plasma of ∼423 km s−1. From the 304 Å image series taken by the Extreme ultraviolet Imager onboard the Solar Terrestrial Relation Observatory-A (STEREO-A) spacecraft, we estimated the plane-of-sky velocity from the STEREO-A viewpoint to be around 587 km s−1. The full velocity of the bulk motion of the ejecta was then computed by combining the imaging and spectroscopic observations, which turns out to be around 596 km s−1 with an angle of 42.4 degrees to the west of the Sun–Earth line and 16.0 degrees south to the ecliptic plane.

Similar technics were applied to other eight events after systematically searching Sun-as-a-star spectra observed by the EVE/SDO from 2010 May to 2022 May. We identified eight CMEs associated with flares and filament eruptions by analyzing the blue-wing asymmetry of the O III 52.58 nm line profiles and estimated their full velocivites as well as propagation directions. We find a strong correlation between geomagnetic indices (Kp and Dst) and the angle between the CME propagation direction and the Sun–Earth line, suggesting that Sun-as-a-star spectroscopic observations at extreme-ultraviolet wavelengths can potentially help to improve the prediction accuracy of the geoeffectiveness of CMEs. Moreover, an analysis of synthesized long-exposure Sun-as-a-star spectra implies that it is possible to detect CMEs from other stars through blue-wing asymmetries or blueshifts of spectral lines.

How to cite: Xu, Y., Lu, H., and Tian, H.: Sun-as-a-star Spectroscopic Observations of the Line-of-sight Velocities of Solar Eruptions, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-5664, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-5664, 2024.

17:00–17:10
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EGU24-17104
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Justin Le Louëdec, Maike Bauer, Tanja Amerstorfer, and Jackie A. Davies

Observing and forecasting Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) is crucial due to the potentially strong geomagnetic storms generated and their impact on satellites and electrical devices. With its near-real-time availability, STEREO-HI beacon data is the perfect candidate for efficient forecasting of CMEs. However, previous work concluded that prediction based on beacon data could not achieve the same accuracy as with high-resolution science data due to data gaps and lower quality. We have introduced a new method to improve the resolution and quality of near-real-time beacon data by using advanced machine-learning techniques while maintaining consistency between consecutive frames. This method also allows us to forecast intermediary and subsequent frames using a data-driven model for CME propagation within HI images. The output generated by our model produces smoother and more detailed time-elongation plots (J-plots) that are used as input for the Ellipse Evolution model based on Heliospheric Imager observations (ELEvoHl). We have compared the data produced by our model with the science data and analysed its impact on CME forecasting and propagation.

How to cite: Le Louëdec, J., Bauer, M., Amerstorfer, T., and Davies, J. A.: Enhancing STEREO-HI data with machine learning for efficient CME forecasting, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-17104, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-17104, 2024.

17:10–17:20
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EGU24-8257
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Andreas Wagner, Slava Bourgeois, Emilia Kilpua, Ranadeep Sarkar, Daniel Price, Anshu Kumari, Jens Pomoell, Stefaan Poedts, Teresa Barata, Robertus Erdélyi, Orlando Oliveira, and Ricardo Gafeira

To improve our understanding of how space weather affects our near-Earth space environment, magnetic field modelling of solar eruptive structures is essential. In particular, modelling flux ropes in a time-dependent manner to investigate their destabilization in the low corona as well as their morphological evolution and propagation can yield important information about the eruption's impact at Earth. However, finding and tracking the magnetic field lines that pertain to the flux rope in simulation data is a non-trivial task. Therefore, we developed a methodology to extract and track flux ropes in a semi-automatic way, using a combination of some flux rope proxies (like the twist parameter) and mathematical morphology algorithms. This procedure is also wrapped into a graphical user interface (GUI) to increase the user-friendliness of the methodology. We subsequently apply this methodology to time-dependent magnetofrictional method (TMFM) simulations of active regions AR12473 and AR11176. For the former, we chose to simulate a time window which featured an eruption, while for the latter, we model the active region at a time where there was only mild activity. We then analyse the propagation of the flux ropes through the low corona. We find that the eruptive flux rope of AR12473 clearly shows significant changes in the propagation direction with deflection angles peaking at 60 degrees. The AR11176 flux rope appears to be more stable, but still features non-negligible deflections peaking at about 40 degrees.

How to cite: Wagner, A., Bourgeois, S., Kilpua, E., Sarkar, R., Price, D., Kumari, A., Pomoell, J., Poedts, S., Barata, T., Erdélyi, R., Oliveira, O., and Gafeira, R.: Identifying and Tracking Solar Flux Ropes in Simulation Data and Deflection Analysis of AR11176 and AR12473 Flux Ropes, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-8257, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-8257, 2024.

17:20–17:30
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EGU24-15438
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Martin Reiss, Damian Barrous-Dume, Ronald Caplan, Cooper Downs, Matthew Lesko, Jon Linker, Peter MacNeice, Leila Mays, Maksym Petrenko, Andres Reyes, Viacheslav Titov, Tibor Török, and Tina Tsui

NASA's Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) presents CORHEL-CME, our newest addition to the Runs-On-Request system in the solar and heliospheric modeling domain. CORHEL-CME, developed by Predictive Science Inc., is a highly automated and interactive MHD modeling framework designed to simulate multiple coronal mass ejections within a realistic coronal and heliospheric environment. It combines three key innovations:

1. Interactive design of CMEs using a GUI-based web interface

CORHEL-CME's user interface is designed for non-experts. It offers real-time diagnostics to assist with model settings, guides users through creating full physics-based CME simulations, and provides web-based visualization reports.

2. Modeling CMEs originating from complex active regions

CORHEL-CME includes a flux rope model called RBSL (Titov et al., 2018), allowing users to create pre-eruptive flux rope configurations above elongated and curved polarity inversion lines. This feature enables users to realistically simulate CMEs originating from complex active regions.

3. Efficient, full physics-based simulations of CMEs

Using the web interface, the users set up simulation runs, including a simplified (zero-beta) MHD model of multiple flux ropes, a quasi-steady-state coronal MHD background model, and a high-fidelity time-dependent CME simulation. All simulation runs are performed on AWS high-performance GPU servers maintained by the CCMC.

In this presentation, we will showcase the usage of CORHEL-CME via CCMC's Runs-On-Request system and show an example run based on an event from March 7th, 2012. The new framework is publicly accessible through the CCMC website.

How to cite: Reiss, M., Barrous-Dume, D., Caplan, R., Downs, C., Lesko, M., Linker, J., MacNeice, P., Mays, L., Petrenko, M., Reyes, A., Titov, V., Török, T., and Tsui, T.: The Next Era of CME Modeling at NASA's CCMC with CORHEL-CME, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-15438, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-15438, 2024.

17:30–17:40
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EGU24-1893
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Elizabeth Wraback, Enrico Landi, Ward Manchester, and Judit Szente

High-resolution EUV spectroscopy of the corona provides the most informative diagnostic tool for the early evolution of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) since it can directly measure many physical properties of CME plasma close to the Sun, which cannot be determined from coronagraphs and full-disk imagers. Hinode/EIS captured its full range of high-resolution EUV spectra of the April 9th, 2008 event, also known as the Cartwheel CME, during its initial acceleration period. Unique to this work, simulations of the Cartwheel CME with the Alfven Wave Solar atmosphere Model (AWSoM) and the Gibson-Low flux rope model, were performed to provide insight into the plasma structure and dynamics during the early evolution of this CME. We combined self-consistent non-equilibrium charge state calculations in the EUV spectral line synthesis for the first time, to account for the plasma departures from ionization equilibrium everywhere in the CME. Overall, the model is able to reproduce the dynamics of the CME, including the eruption of cold, dense prominence material. We discuss the thermodynamic evolution of CME’s plasma structure in the low solar corona, with particular attention given to the cold prominence material, and how the non-equilibrium charge states and EUV spectra evolve.

How to cite: Wraback, E., Landi, E., Manchester, W., and Szente, J.: The Cartwheel CME’s Evolution in the Low Solar Corona Simulated with Non-Equilibrium Charge States and Spectra for Comparison to High-Resolution EUV Spectroscopic Observations, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-1893, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-1893, 2024.

17:40–17:50
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EGU24-6047
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Karmen Martinić, Eleanna Asvestari, Mateja Dumbović, Manuela Temmer, and Bojan Vršnak

The dynamics of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in interplanetary space (IPS) are primarily determined by the interaction of the CME with the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and the surrounding solar wind (SW). CMEs are complex magnetized plasma structures in which the magnetic field spirals around a central axis, forming what is known as a flux rope (FR). This FR axis can be oriented at any angle with respect to the ecliptic. Throughout its journey, a CME will encounter  IMF and SW in IPS which is neither homogeneous nor isotropic. Consequently, CMEs with different orientations will encounter different ambient medium conditions. It is thus expected that the interaction of the CME with its surrounding environment will vary depending on the orientation of its FR axis, among other factors. This study aims to fill the gap in the understanding of the effect of inclination on CME propagation in the heliosphere. This is achieved by performing simulations with the EUropean Heliospheric FORecasting Information Asset (EUHFORIA) 3D magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model. This study focuses on two CMEs with nearly identical properties, differing only by their inclination, which are simulated using the spheromak CME implementation in the model. We show the effects of CME orientation on sheath evolution, MHD drag, and non-radial flows in radial, longitudinal, and latitudinal directions, by analyzing the model data from a swarm of 81 virtual spacecrafts scattered across the inner heliospheric domain of EUHFORIA. These results provide new insights into CME dynamics, the understanding of which is critical for improving space weather forecasting.

How to cite: Martinić, K., Asvestari, E., Dumbović, M., Temmer, M., and Vršnak, B.: Probing CME’s inclination effects with EUHFORIA, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-6047, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-6047, 2024.

17:50–18:00
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EGU24-8864
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Anwesha Maharana, Sergio Dasso, Sanchita Pal, Eleanna Asvestari, Luciano Rodriguez, Jasmina Magdalenic, Camilla Scolini, and Stefaan Poedts

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) undergo erosion, deflection, and deformation upon interaction with the solar wind structures and with other transients during their propagation in the solar corona and heliosphere. In this work, we focus on the process of the erosion of CMEs in the heliosphere, which impacts their magnetic flux content, and its effect on altering their geo-effectiveness. To quantify the erosion of CME magnetic flux and mass in various solar wind environments, we employ 3D magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations. 

To create a simulated solar wind background resembling a solar minimum period (for simplistic cases), we utilize the EUropean Heliosphere FORecasting Information Asset (EUHFORIA, Pomoell and Poedts, 2018) model. Through this background, we evolved a CME from 0.1 au to 2 au using a linear force-free spheromak model. We employ two distinct methods to assess erosion of magnetic flux and mass. 

First, the in-situ method, where the single point data at Earth or any other location is used to quantify the magnetic flux erosion. The orientation of the CME in the magnetic cloud frame of reference is determined through minimum variance analysis, and the accumulated axial and azimuthal flux is computed (Dasso et al, 2006). Imbalances in the flux profile serve as indicators of erosion. 

The second method relies on 3D simulation data, tracking the mass of the magnetic cloud in three dimensions based on criteria developed by Asvestari et al, 2022 for the spheromak model. With this method we can identify the 3D volume of the spheromak, assess its orientation, rotation, and magnetic properties in 3D in the local frame of reference of the spheromak structure. This technique provides us with the magnetic flux content of the spheromak and how it changes in space and time. 

Following a benchmarking process between the two erosion quantification methods, we conduct simulations to explore the sensitivity of CME erosion to variations in geometrical and magnetic field parameters. The study also investigates the influence of interactions with high-speed streams on erosion. Lastly, we apply an empirical Dst model (O’Brien and McPherron, 2000) to quantify geo-effectiveness and establish correlations with estimated erosion in all cases.

How to cite: Maharana, A., Dasso, S., Pal, S., Asvestari, E., Rodriguez, L., Magdalenic, J., Scolini, C., and Poedts, S.: On quantifying the impact of CME magnetic flux and mass erosion on geo-effectiveness , EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-8864, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-8864, 2024.

Posters on site: Wed, 17 Apr, 10:45–12:30 | Hall X3

Display time: Wed, 17 Apr, 08:30–Wed, 17 Apr, 12:30
X3.1
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EGU24-9858
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ECS
Emma Davies, Christian Möstl, Eva Weiler, and Robert Forsyth

Studies of ICMEs observed by multi-spacecraft over varying longitudinal and radial separations provide valuable insight into the general properties, expansion, and possible interaction with other features of the solar wind environment as the ICME propagates. Previous studies have suggested that ICMEs are not coherent structures, but may display locally apparent coherence due to similar initial conditions and quasi homogeneity of the solar wind background through which they propagate.

In this study, we use a tool to match distinct features observed in the magnetic field profiles measured at each spacecraft as a proxy for coherence, and investigate the types of ICME and scales over which this is possible using those listed in the HELIO4CAST lineup catalogue v2.0 (https://helioforecast.space/lineups). In addition, we use the timing and positions of these matched features to calculate the mean propagation velocities of these features between the spacecraft. We present example CME events comparing the calculated mean propagation velocity profiles to those measured in situ where plasma data is available, and investigate the relationship between local and global expansion.

How to cite: Davies, E., Möstl, C., Weiler, E., and Forsyth, R.: Investigating the coherency and expansion of ICMEs using multi-spacecraft observations, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-9858, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-9858, 2024.

X3.2
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EGU24-8788
Manuela Temmer, Mateja Dumbovic, Karmen Martinic, Greta M. Cappello, Akshay K. Remeshan, Daniel Milosic, Florian Koller, Jasa Calogovic, and Filip Matkovic

Solar cycle 25 might be close to its expected peak and related activity is at a high. In 2023 many complex events were observed remotely and measured in-situ. Some of them even caused aurorae in low latitudes, repeatedly confirming that the interaction between multiple CMEs, as well as CIRs, lead to extreme conditions in near-Earth space. We study a set of “homologous” events on the Sun, where several CMEs interacted and additionally interfered by a high-speed stream from a coronal hole. The two sets of events involve the same active regions and coronal hole but are separated by a full solar rotation. We point out the complexity for each set of events and aim to understand how the global magnetic field configuration leads to a general similarity in the activation of the CME source regions. The studied in-situ measurements are connected to the solar surface observations and interpreted by processes caused due to shock-magnetic obstacle interaction.

How to cite: Temmer, M., Dumbovic, M., Martinic, K., Cappello, G. M., Remeshan, A. K., Milosic, D., Koller, F., Calogovic, J., and Matkovic, F.: CME-CME-CIR interaction - comparison of "homologous" events from two different solar rotations , EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-8788, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-8788, 2024.

X3.3
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EGU24-2651
Tibor Torok, Mark G. Linton, James E. Leake, Zoran Mikic, Roberto Lionello, Viacheslav S. Titov, and Cooper Downs

Observations have shown a clear association of filament/prominence eruptions with the emergence of magnetic flux in or near filament channels. Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations have been employed to systematically study the conditions under which such eruptions occur. These simulations to date have modeled filament channels as two-dimensional (2D) flux ropes or 3D uniformly sheared arcades. Here we present MHD simulations of flux emergence into a more realistic configuration consisting of a bipolar active region containing a line-tied 3D flux rope. We use the coronal flux-rope model of Titov et al. (2014) as the initial condition and drive our simulations by imposing boundary conditions extracted from a flux-emergence simulation by Leake et al. (2013). We identify three mechanisms that determine the evolution of the system: (i) reconnection displacing foot points of field lines overlying the coronal flux rope, (ii) changes of the ambient field due to the intrusion of new flux at the boundary, and (iii) interaction of the (axial) electric currents in the pre-existing and newly emerging flux systems. The relative contributions and effects of these mechanisms depend on the properties of the pre-existing and emerging flux systems. Here we focus on the location and orientation of the emerging flux relative to the coronal flux rope. Varying these parameters, we investigate under which conditions an eruption of the latter is triggered.

How to cite: Torok, T., Linton, M. G., Leake, J. E., Mikic, Z., Lionello, R., Titov, V. S., and Downs, C.: Solar Eruptions Triggered by Flux Emergence Below or Near a Coronal Flux Rope, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-2651, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-2651, 2024.

X3.4
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EGU24-4425
Gabor Toth, Yang Chen, Xun Huan, Bart van der Holst, Aniket Jivani, Hongfan Chen, Nishtha Sachdeva, Zhenguang Huang, and Ward Manchester

Supported by the Space Weather with Quantified Uncertainty (SWQU) NSF program, we have been developing the Next Generation Space Weather Modeling Framework at the University of Michigan for three years. The main goal of the project is to provide useful probabilistic forecast of major space weather events about 24 hours before the geospace impact occurs. We are using the first-principles models in the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) in combination with uncertainty quantification and data assimilation. Using the advanced MaxPro experimental design and fully automated Python scripts, we have performed thousands of solar wind background and coronal mass ejection (CME) simulations with the solar corona, inner heliosphere and eruptive event generator based on the Gibson-Low fluxrope (EEGGL) models of the SWMF. Our CME initiation model is at the surface of the Sun, so the CME can interact with the background solar wind and the magnetic field of the erupting active region. Based on these simulations, we have performed the uncertainty quantification analysis using the Bayesian inversion formula and a newly defined distance metric adapted to solar simulations. One important finding is that the physically meaningful range of the background solar wind model parameters depends on the solar cycle. We have identified the three most important parameters that impact the background solar wind model and two more parameters (the strength and helicity of the magnetic field of the fluxrope) that impact the CME eruption model. The reduced dimensionality of the parameter space enables reducing the size of the ensemble. Data assimilation provides further opportunity to improve the predictions. We are using in-situ observations at L1 prior to the CME to constrain the background solar wind and coronal white-light image observations right after the eruption to find the optimal flux rope parameters. We find that the CME arrival time error is significantly reduced to less than 5 hours by the data assimilation based on three events. Using an ensemble of simulations also provides a likely range for the various quantities of interest, including arrival time, solar wind speed and density and the BZ component of the magnetic field. The main product of the project, the Michigan Sun-to-Earth Model with Quantified Uncertainty and Data Assimilation (MSTEM-QUDA) is available as an open-source distribution at https://github.com/MSTEM-QUDA

How to cite: Toth, G., Chen, Y., Huan, X., van der Holst, B., Jivani, A., Chen, H., Sachdeva, N., Huang, Z., and Manchester, W.: Sun-to-Earth CME Modeling with Data Assimilation and Uncertainty Quantification, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-4425, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-4425, 2024.

X3.5
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EGU24-4457
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Highlight
Lulu Zhao and Tamas Gombosi and the CLEAR Team

CLEAR will deliver capabilities for robust and quantifiable forecasts of the space radiation level of up to 24 hours, in support of aviation, satellites, and space exploration. Solar energetic particles (SEPs) can be accelerated over a wide range of energies extending up to GeVs. At relatively low energies (e.g., ~10 MeV), their flux intensity can exceed the background of galactic cosmic rays by several orders of magnitude. Protons of >100 MeV with elevated fluxes exceeding 1 proton flux unit are responsible for an increased astronaut exposure inside spacecraft shielding. Protons of >150MeV are very difficult to shield against as they can penetrate 20 gm cm (7.4 cm of Al, or 15.5 cm of water/human tissue). Furthermore, > 500 MeV protons can penetrate the atmosphere and pose radiation hazards to aviation. Besides protons, energetic heavy ions, e.g., Fe ions, can be of more severe radiation concerns. SEPs are hazardous not only to humans but also to electronics and other sensitive components in space, affecting satellite operations. The sparsity and high variability in terms of intensity, duration, composition,and energy spectra of SEP events make them difficult to predict. The CLEAR Center will develop, test and validate a self-contained, modular (“plug and play”) framework that includes all major elements impacting SEPs in the inner heliosphere: 4π maps of photospheric magnetic fields, corona (1 − 20Rs), inner and middle heliosphere (0.1 AU to Jupiter’s orbit) plasma environment, magnetic connectivity with respect to the solar source, flare/CME initiation, SEP seed population, flare and shock acceleration, and energetic particle transport. In addition, the framework will be able to accommodate radiation interaction models, which will be used to study the penetration of spacecraft walls, radiation effects on the terrestrial magnetosphere, and the radiation doses received by human tissues.

How to cite: Zhao, L. and Gombosi, T. and the CLEAR Team: CLEAR – All-Clear SEP Forecast: A NASA Space Weather Center of Excellence, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-4457, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-4457, 2024.

X3.6
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EGU24-10017
Carlos Larrodera and Manuela Temmer

Our study covers a comprehensive analysis of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections (ICMEs) across a wide distance from 0.25-5.42 AU and temporal range from 1975-2022. Our primary focus is a statistical examination of a variety of physical parameters for the structures within ICMEs, specifically the sheath and magnetic obstacle (MO). Our methodological approach integrates data merging from 13 individual ICME catalogs into a unified catalog, facilitating a comprehensive evaluation of in-situ measurements obtained from diverse spacecraft. This approach offers an opportunity to discern variances across different solar cycles. Our empirical findings provide intriguing insights. Notably, MOs preceded by a sheath exhibit a marked increase in size upon reaching 1 AU from the Sun. Furthermore, both structures, MO and sheath, experience a strong increase in size around 0.75 AU, correlating with a decrease in the measured density at this distance. Moreover, our analysis reveals a shift in the spatial positioning of material accumulation proximate to the sheath interface. This transformation suggests a potential transition in the underlying mechanism governing sheath formation, indicating a shift from externally driven to internally accumulated material processes.

How to cite: Larrodera, C. and Temmer, M.: Evolution of sheaths and magnetic obstacle from the inner to the outer heliosphere. , EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-10017, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-10017, 2024.

X3.7
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EGU24-2230
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ECS
Yucong Li, Yi Yang, Fang Shen, and Rongpei Lin

A coronal mass ejection (CME) is a significant release of plasma and accompanying magnetic field from the solar corona, and is one important source of severe space weather events. With the accumulation of CME observations by coronagraphs and the excellent performance of convolutional neural network (CNN) in image classification, fast and accurate prediction of the transit (arrival) time of CMEs became possible. In this study, we present a new prediction method utilizing both a deep learning framework and the physical characteristic of CMEs based on remote-sensing observations. In total, the initial and arrival data of 168 geo-effective CME events from 2000-2020 are collected for the study. A convolutional neural network model is trained with the coronagraph images of the events observed by SOHO/LASCO. The output of the trained CNN is further combined with the initial CME speed to carry out a linear fitting process. The comparison with the prediction results merely based on a CNN or a linear fitting by CME speed indicates that the hybrid model can improve the accuracy of CME arrival time prediction.

How to cite: Li, Y., Yang, Y., Shen, F., and Lin, R.: CME Transit Time Prediction Based on Coronagraph Observations and Machine Learning Techniques, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-2230, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-2230, 2024.

X3.8
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EGU24-3405
Brigitte Schmieder, Jinhan Guo, Pooja Devi, Ramesh Chandra, Yang Guo, and Stefaan Poedts

 

We revisit the observations of filament eruption,   extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) wave,  and  CME which originated from the active region (AR) NOAA 12887 on 28 October 2021. We analyze  a jet which initiated close to the flare loop footpoints, and its impact on neighboring loops. The event was observed by the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) satellite at various wavebands and by the Solar TErrestrialRElations Observatory-Ahead (STEREO-A) with its Extreme-Ultraviolet Imager( EUVI) and COR1 instruments with a different view angle from SDO.

We show that the EUV-wave event consists of several waves as well as non-wave phenomena. The wave componentsinclude: the fast-mode part of the EUV wave event, creation of oscillations in nearby loops, and the appearance of wave trains. The non wave component consists of stationary fronts. We analyze selected oscillating loops and find that the periods of these oscillations range from 230 – 549 s. 

On the other hand the jet material lights loops which form a 3D null point. We evidence the existence of a  pseudo-streamer and its relationship with the CME (flux rope).

Our numerical MHD simulations with high resolution evidence  the existence of a pseudo-streamer, and its relationship with the CME (flux rope). We   catch the dynamic reconnection process between the flux rope and the pseudo-streamer and discuss the validity of our method compared to static methods.

How to cite: Schmieder, B., Guo, J., Devi, P., Chandra, R., Guo, Y., and Poedts, S.: A pseudo-streamer unveiled by a jet and its interaction with a CME, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-3405, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-3405, 2024.

X3.9
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EGU24-5702
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ECS
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Akshay Kumar Remeshan, Mateja Dumbović, and Manuela Temmer

Understanding the propagation and evolution of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) is one of the fundamental problems in Heliospheric Physics. An important factor in comprehending the evolution of CMEs in interplanetary space (ICMEs) is studying the different interactions they undergo, such as with high-speed streams (HSS) originating from coronal holes (CH). We study the interaction of an ICME detected in situ at the L1 Lagrange point on 12th October 2016 with a trailing HSS. The in-situ measurements indicate a Magnetic Obstacle (MO) with a symmetric flux rope structure and reconnection exhaust signatures at the ICME-HSS boundary. The ICME is associated with a Halo CME recorded in the LASCO CME catalogue on 9th October 2016. We use Graduated Cylindrical Shell (GCS) reconstruction to obtain 3D CME characteristics and SDO AIA 193 Å measurements to analyse basic CH properties. We next use "a two-step Drag Based Model (DBM)" together with EUropean Heliospheric FORecasting Information Asset (EUHFORIA) to model and analyse the interaction and estimate where in the heliosphere the interaction takes place. We find that the results from the two-step DBM model give better justification for the observed in-situ signatures compared to the EUHFORIA run; this could be due to the lack of reliable magnetogram data from the backside of the Sun. Our analysis indicates that the interaction between ICME and HSS initiated relatively close to Earth (~0.9 AU), providing a benchmark to study ICME-HSS interaction at an early phase.

How to cite: Remeshan, A. K., Dumbović, M., and Temmer, M.: Deriving the interaction point of an Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection and High-Speed stream : A case study, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-5702, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-5702, 2024.

X3.10
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EGU24-20641
Strong Interplanetary Evolution of Coronal Mass Ejection from BepiColombo at 0.67 AU up to Mars
(withdrawn after no-show)
Yutian Chi, chenglong shen, dongwei mao, and yuming wang
X3.11
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EGU24-13582
Spiro Antiochos, Bart van der Holst, Tamas Gombosi, Igor Sokolov, Lulu Zhao, and Joel Dahlin

Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) are the drivers of the most destructive space weather at Earth; therefore, determining their onset mechanism is of paramount importance for both space physics understanding and space weather prediction.  Two types of models for CME onset have been proposed: an ideal instability as in the kink or torus models, or magnetic reconnection as in the breakout or tether-cutting models. These two types are distinguished by the nature of the pre-eruption filament channel that powers the CME, a twisted flux rope in the case of the ideal mechanisms and a sheared arcade in the case of reconnection.  We describe two powerful new capabilities within the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) that enable the simulation of either ideal or reconnection driven CMEs. For ideal onset, we have developed and implemented a finite-beta extension of the well-known Titov-Demoulin twisted flux rope model. We present simulations using this capability and describe its application to event studies. For reconnection-driven onset we have developed and implemented the STITCH formalism, which efficiently captures the buildup of magnetic shear along a polarity inversion line by the process of helicity condensation.  We present simulations using this capability, as well, and describe its application to event studies. Furthermore, we discuss how these capabilities within SWMF will enable the community to simulate well-observed events with both ideal and reconnection onset, and by detailed comparison with the observations, finally determine the CME onset mechanism.

This work was supported by the NSF SHINE Program and the NASA Living With a Star Program.

 

How to cite: Antiochos, S., van der Holst, B., Gombosi, T., Sokolov, I., Zhao, L., and Dahlin, J.: Determining the CME Onset Mechanism , EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-13582, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-13582, 2024.

X3.12
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EGU24-1718
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ECS
Rongpei Lin, Yi Yang, Fang Shen, Gibert Pi, and Yucong Li

Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are the major source of space weather events, causing severe disturbance to Sun-Earth space environment. Since there are more and more space activities and facilities, it’s becoming increasingly significant to detect and track CMEs. We develop a new algorithm to automatically detect CMEs and derive CME’s kinematic parameters based on machine learning. Our method consists of three steps: Recognition, tracking and determination of parameters. First, we train a convolutional neural network (CNN) to classify images from SOHO LASCO coronagraph observation into two categories that contains CME(s) or not. Next, we apply Principal Component Analysis (PCA) algorithm and Otsu’s method to acquire binary-labelled CME regions. Then, we employ the track-match algorithm to track CME motion in time-series image sequence and finally determine CME kinematic parameters e.g., velocity, angular width (AW), and central position angle (CPA). The algorithm is validated on several CME events with different morphological characteristics. We compare the results with a manual CME catalog and automatic CME catalogs (including Computer Aided CME Tracking (CACTus), Solar Eruptive Event Detection System (SEEDS), CORonal Image Process method (CORIMP)). Our algorithm shows some advantages in the recognition of CME structure and the accuracy of the kinematic parameters. In the future, the algorithm is capable of being applied to initialize magnetohydrodynamic simulations to study the propagation characteristics of real CME events in the interplanetary space, and provide a more efficient prediction of CMEs' geo-effectiveness.

How to cite: Lin, R., Yang, Y., Shen, F., Pi, G., and Li, Y.: An Algorithm For Determination of CME Kinematic Parameters Based On Machine Learning, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-1718, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-1718, 2024.

X3.13
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EGU24-14401
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ECS
Ranadeep Sarkar, Jens Pomoell, Emilia Kilpua, and Eleanna Asvestari

One of the major challenges in space weather forecasting is to reliably predict the magnetic structure of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) in the near-Earth space. In the framework of global MHD modelling, several efforts have been made to model the CME magnetic field from Sun to Earth. However, it remains challenging to deduce a flux-rope solution that can reliably model the magnetic structure of a CME. Spheromaks are one of the models that are widely used to characterize the internal magnetic structure of a CME. However, recent studies show that spheromaks are prone to experience a large rotation when injected in the heliospheric domain which may affect the prediction efficacy of CME magnetic fields at 1 AU. Moreover, the fully inserted spheromaks do not have any legs attached to the Sun. In addition, due to the inherent topology of the spheromak, the in-situ signature may exhibit a double flux-rope-like profile not reproduced by standard locally cylindrical flux rope models. Aiming to study the dynamics of CMEs exhibiting different magnetic topologies, we implement a new flux-rope model in “European heliospheric forecasting information asset” (EUHFORIA). Our flux-rope model includes an initially force-free toroidal flux-rope that is embedded in the low-coronal magnetic field. The dynamics of the flux rope in the low and middle corona is solved by a non-uniform advection constrained by the observed kinematics of the event. This results in a global non-toroidal loop-like magnetic structure that locally manifests as a cylindrical structure. At heliospheric distances, the evolution is modeled as a MHD process using EUHFORIA. As proof of concept, we use this tool to two CME events. Comparing the model results with the in-situ magnetic field configuration of the ICME at 1 au, we find that the simulated magnetic field profiles of the flux-rope are in very good agreement with the in-situ observations. Therefore, the framework of toroidal model implementation as developed in this study could prove to be a major step-forward in forecasting the geo-effectiveness of CMEs.

How to cite: Sarkar, R., Pomoell, J., Kilpua, E., and Asvestari, E.: Integration of a Novel Flux Rope Model into Global MHD Simulations for Analyzing the Space Weather Effects of Coronal Mass Ejections, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-14401, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-14401, 2024.

Posters virtual: Wed, 17 Apr, 14:00–15:45 | vHall X3

Display time: Wed, 17 Apr, 08:30–Wed, 17 Apr, 18:00
vX3.2
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EGU24-8128
Alessandro Bemporad, Guanglu Shi, Shuting Li, Beili Ying, Li Feng, and Jun Lin and the Metis Team

For the first time the evolution of the coronal reconfiguration after a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was observed by the multi-channel Metis Coronagraph on-board the ESA - Solar Orbiter mission. The images acquired in the Visible Light (VL) between 3.0 and 5.4 Rsun show the formation after a CME of a bright elongated radial feature interpreted as a post-CME Current Sheet (CS). This interpretation is supported by the appearance of the same feature as an intensity decrease in the UV Lyman-alpha images. The unique combination of VL and UV images allowed for the first time to map in 2D the time evolution of multiple plasma physical parameters inside and outside the CS region. In particular, the CS electron temperature reached peak values higher than 1 MK, more than 2 times larger than the surrounding corona in the covered altitude range. An elongated vertical diffusion region (DR), characterized as a region of much higher thermal pressure and lower magnetic pressure, is observed to slowly propagate outward during 13 hours of observations. Inside this region the Alfvènic Mach number is on the order of MA ≃ 0.02 - 0.11, the plasma β is close to unity, and the level of turbulence is higher than the surrounding corona, but decreases slowly with time. All these results provide one of the most complete pictures of these features, and support the idea of a magnetic reconnection coupled with turbulence and occurring in multiple smaller scale CSs resulting in the much broader macroscopic feature observed with the Metis coronagraph. This allows magnetic reconnection to provide a significant heating of the local plasma, despite the weakness of involved coronal magnetic fields in the considered altitude range.

How to cite: Bemporad, A., Shi, G., Li, S., Ying, B., Feng, L., and Lin, J. and the Metis Team: First Determination in the Extended Corona of the 2D Thermal Evolution of a Current Sheet after a Solar Eruption, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-8128, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-8128, 2024.