Evaluation of future land use scenarios for groundwater protection and territorial sustainable development

“Human use of land has been transforming Earth's ecology for millennia” (Ellis, 2021).  Pressures on land are increasing due to land use and land cover (LULC) changes, such as deforestation, intensive agriculture and urbanization.  LULC changes significantly impact water both at the surface level and at the subsurface level – reduced infiltration and groundwater recharge, and increased runoff and pollution.  These LULC changes greatly impact long-term water availability, the quality of freshwater and ecosystem health.  Sustainable land planning has become necessary to mitigate the impacts of LULC change and to protect groundwater.  However, not all land planning projects are effective.  Therefore, evaluating them is crucial to determine whether they are actually effective for mitigation.

In response to the challenges of LULC change in the European Metropolis of Lille (Northern France), 12 LULC scenarios of actions were co-constructed with experts from different backgrounds. Our objective is to evaluate the possible effects on groundwater of actions suggested by the scenarios.

The evaluation of these scenarios will be accomplished, for example, by:

• Using indicators related to local conditions and available data;
• Integrating multidimensional welfare indices (Usubiaga-Liaño & Ekins, 2024) and the Doughnut Economics (Raworth, 2012);
• Quantifying the resulting indicators using GIS data, data from the literature and a capacity matrix (an ecosystem services evaluation tool used by the Hauts-de-France region) (Hérivaux & Farolfi, 2024).

The PICO will outline the various phases of the project and the tasks to be accomplished.  We invite you to visit our PICO and share your thoughts.  Your comments and suggestions on the project will be much appreciated.

Reference:

Ellis, E. C. (2021). Land Use and Ecological Change: A 12,000-Year History. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 46(Volume 46, 2021), 1–33. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-environ-012220-010822

Usubiaga-Liaño, A., & Ekins, P. (2024). Methodological choices for reflecting strong sustainability in composite indices. Ecological Economics, 221, 108192. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2024.108192

Raworth, K. (2012). A safe and just space for humanity: Can we live within the doughnut? Oxfam Discussion Papers. Oxfam International. https://policy-practice.oxfam.org/resources/a-safe-and-just-space-for-humanity-can-we-live-within-the-doughnut-210490/

Hérivaux, C., & Farolfi, S. (2024). Evaluation of Future Land Use Scenarios for Groundwater Protection and Territorial Sustainable Development [Poster]. IDIL Graduate Program, University of Montpellier. https://idil.edu.umontpellier.fr/files/2024/09/IDIL-Herivaux-Farolfi-LU-Scenarios-GW-protection-2024-07-16-1.pdf