The Water Crisis and Geopolitical Dynamics in Iran: Regional Strains and Transnational Consequences

Water has consistently been one of the globe’s most vital strategic resources, serving as both a catalyst for peace and a potential source of strife. Amidst growing environmental catastrophes and pervasive droughts, water has become a pivotal factor in geopolitical maneuvers. The Middle East countries especially Iran, confronted with a critical water shortage, is grappling with internal resource management issues while simultaneously experiencing escalating tensions with neighboring nations over shared water supplies. This dilemma is particularly evident in the transboundary river basin with nations such as Türkiye, Azerbaijan, Afghanistan and Iraq, and it has the potential to worsen regional tensions and conflicts.

This study examines the impacts of agricultural development and climate change over the past four decades on six major water basins in Iran, aiming to identify key water-related conflict zones and explore the intersection of water issues with political, economic and social divisions. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was used to assess the severity of drought in these basins throughout the period of 1980-2020. Statistical analysis of groundwater resources and dam data reveals the negative effects of human activities on water availability. Despite being situated in a semi-arid region, Iran has built more than 400 dams in the past four decades across various basins, primarily to expand irrigated agriculture and generate hydroelectric power. The results of this study show that drought conditions in Iran began to intensify in the late 1990s. During particularly severe drought years, such as 1999, 2000, 2001, 2008, and 2010, the abstraction of groundwater resources especially deep and semi-deep wells increased dramatically.

Concurrently, neighboring countries in transboundary basins such as Euphrates-Tigris River Basin, located in the west of Iran and Hirmand (Helmand) River Basin, located in the east of Iran have expanded their own irrigated areas, which has heightened tensions between Iran and its neighbors. The worsening water crisis is likely to exacerbate both internal and regional conflicts, with potential consequences for Iran’s national security and foreign policy.

Regional and international collaboration, along with the development of sustainable agricultural practices and integrated water resource management systems, will be critical to ensuring sustainable environmental development in the Middle East, especially for Iran. Addressing these challenges in a cooperative manner can mitigate future conflicts and promote long-term stability in the region. Enhancing water conservation and efficiency in agriculture, strengthening water governance and policy reforms, fostering climate adaptation and resilience, promoting transboundary water cooperation, and advancing innovative water treatment technologies are all crucial components for ensuring sustainable development in the region.