Drought is among the most complex and impactful natural hazards, with profound consequences for ecosystems, agriculture, water resources, and human livelihoods. Addressing drought resilience requires a shift beyond simply predicting the occurrence and location of droughts toward understanding and managing associated risks, mitigating cascading effects such as wildfires and food insecurity, and strengthening adaptive capacity.

Digital technologies, including artificial intelligence and Digital Twins, offer transformative opportunities in this context. These tools enable the processing of extensive datasets, scenario simulation, and the generation of actionable insights to enhance early warning systems. Impact-based forecasting, supported by these innovations, facilitates proactive decision-making across sectors such as water management, agriculture, and disaster mitigation. Case studies from arid regions, including the Mediterranean, demonstrate the potential of these approaches to support timely and targeted interventions.

Despite the potential of digital technologies, significant challenges remain. Issues such as data governance, the establishment of global standards, ethical considerations, and equitable access to advanced tools are critical to ensuring effective and inclusive solutions. Addressing these challenges requires an integrated approach that aligns technological innovation with policy frameworks, governance structures, and societal priorities.

The integration of multi-hazard frameworks, exemplified by systems such as MedEWSa (www.medewsa.eu), highlights the importance of advanced forecasting tools in managing drought risks and their cascading effects. This approach contributes to building resilience in arid regions and supports global efforts to adapt to a changing climate.

How to cite: Xoplaki, E., Kuglitsch, M., and Luterbacher, J.: Leveraging digital innovation for drought resilience: Impact-based forecasting and early warning systems, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17819, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17819, 2025.

The water demands in thermal power plants are only going to increase due to Environmental Control Technologies (ECTs) such as Flue Gas Desulphurization (FGD) and Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS). These ECTs are necessary to adhere to the regional environmental regulations or to commit to the global climate pledges. This work focuses on thermal power generation in Rajasthan viz. arid and highly water-stressed region of India. The main objective of this work is to do a comprehensive assessment of water demands for ECT-equipped thermal power plants and their satiety in the face of climate change, intra-annually. Two climate change scenarios namely, SSP2-RCP 4.5 and SSP5-RCP 8.5 are considered. The Integrated Environmental Control Model (IECM v11.5) was used to quantify the monthly water withdrawals and the region's water availability was estimated using the extended Budyko framework. The results showed that after dry/ wet FGD addition, the plant operation water withdrawals rose by 200 to 400 l/MWh compared to the base plant. In the case of CCS implementations, the increments were found to be 2000-4000 l/MWh intra-annually with summer months being more water-intensive for both climate change scenarios. Further, the overall water availability decreased by 20% in the SSP2-RCP4.5 and 30% in the SSP5-RCP8.5 scenario, respectively. Consequently, November to June months were found to be water-deficient months for thermal power generation in both climate change scenarios.  These results entail careful planning of water management and corresponding adaptation measures. The upgradation of the boiler from sub-critical to supercritical and ultra-supercritical and the replacement of cooling technology from wet tower to hybrid or air-cooled condenser can lead to substantial water savings of 500 – 3000 l/MWh for the regional climatology. However, it comes with certain trade-offs such as an increase in CO₂ emissions and a reduction in efficiency. The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) is also an important factor in the decision-making. While shifting to water-efficient adaptation measures there is only a marginal increase in the LCOE; the decision-making becomes more crucial when ECT additions are considered as they increase the LCOE considerably. Therefore, policy instruments like the government’s subsidy intervention can play a successful role in adopting such measures.

How to cite: Shinde, R., Shastri, Y., and Rao, A. B.: Assessing the impacts of climate change on thermal power plants equipped with Environmental Control Technologies (ECTs): Challenges and adaptation measures, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-668, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-668, 2025.

This paper identifies the procedural justice and outcome justice of the energy transition by analyzing the differences within sample groups and exploring how the digital economy guides the cross-production-stage and cross-regional allocation of factors, influencing the energy justice transition. The research finds that the development of the digital economy significantly promotes energy justice transition. Digital economy drives the cross-border allocation of factors, fostering environment-biased technological progress, especially energy-saving biased technological progress, in energy-lagging cities, which reduces clean energy development and operation costs, thus facilitating energy justice transition. Higher public environmental concerns and cleaner energy levels amplify the positive impact of the digital economy on energy justice transition, while higher urban economic burdens exert a significant inhibitory effect. Further analysis reveals that accelerating the low-carbon energy transition in energy-lagging cities through the digital economy negatively affect urban unemployment and wage levels, with the transitions in low-carbon energy structure having a more pronounced impact. However, the procedural justice of energy transition significantly narrows the economic development gap between resource-based cities and other cities.

How to cite: Yukihara, T. and Sun, Q.: The role of digital economy in promoting energy justice----Evidence from procedural justice and outcome justice, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2375, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2375, 2025.

Water has consistently been one of the globe’s most vital strategic resources, serving as both a catalyst for peace and a potential source of strife. Amidst growing environmental catastrophes and pervasive droughts, water has become a pivotal factor in geopolitical maneuvers. The Middle East countries especially Iran, confronted with a critical water shortage, is grappling with internal resource management issues while simultaneously experiencing escalating tensions with neighboring nations over shared water supplies. This dilemma is particularly evident in the transboundary river basin with nations such as Türkiye, Azerbaijan, Afghanistan and Iraq, and it has the potential to worsen regional tensions and conflicts.

This study examines the impacts of agricultural development and climate change over the past four decades on six major water basins in Iran, aiming to identify key water-related conflict zones and explore the intersection of water issues with political, economic and social divisions. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was used to assess the severity of drought in these basins throughout the period of 1980-2020. Statistical analysis of groundwater resources and dam data reveals the negative effects of human activities on water availability. Despite being situated in a semi-arid region, Iran has built more than 400 dams in the past four decades across various basins, primarily to expand irrigated agriculture and generate hydroelectric power. The results of this study show that drought conditions in Iran began to intensify in the late 1990s. During particularly severe drought years, such as 1999, 2000, 2001, 2008, and 2010, the abstraction of groundwater resources especially deep and semi-deep wells increased dramatically.

Concurrently, neighboring countries in transboundary basins such as Euphrates-Tigris River Basin, located in the west of Iran and Hirmand (Helmand) River Basin, located in the east of Iran have expanded their own irrigated areas, which has heightened tensions between Iran and its neighbors. The worsening water crisis is likely to exacerbate both internal and regional conflicts, with potential consequences for Iran’s national security and foreign policy.

Regional and international collaboration, along with the development of sustainable agricultural practices and integrated water resource management systems, will be critical to ensuring sustainable environmental development in the Middle East, especially for Iran. Addressing these challenges in a cooperative manner can mitigate future conflicts and promote long-term stability in the region. Enhancing water conservation and efficiency in agriculture, strengthening water governance and policy reforms, fostering climate adaptation and resilience, promoting transboundary water cooperation, and advancing innovative water treatment technologies are all crucial components for ensuring sustainable development in the region.

How to cite: Talebi, R. and Aydin, Y.: The Water Crisis and Geopolitical Dynamics in Iran: Regional Strains and Transnational Consequences, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10352, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10352, 2025.

This paper aims to advance our scientific understanding of optimizing flood productivity in climate-impacted regions through integrated interventions at strategic and operational levels. In arid and semi-arid regions of Africa and Asia, short-duration floods cover about 50 million cultivable hectares and support some 100 million farming families. Such flood-dependent systems have long been overlooked due to concerns over unreliable water supply. However, with increasing climate change impacts and water scarcity, there is growing recognition of the potential for sustainable growth that short-duration floods can offer.

This paper is based on a study conducted as part of a three-year USAID-supported initiative (2022–2024) focused on promoting economic growth and peace in the Gash Agricultural Scheme (GAS) in the water-stressed eastern region of Sudan. GAS, the largest flood-dependent scheme in the country, covers 100,800 hectares and could support the water and food security needs of over a quarter of a million agro-pastoralists. It relies on the ephemeral Gash River, which originates from the Ethiopian and Eritrean highlands and flows sporadically between July and October. Over the past two decades, climate-induced changes have led to fluctuations in the river's flow, affecting its timing, frequency, and volume, which has ranged between 650 million and 1.2 billion m³ annually.

The study conducted water balance analyses using a 16-year dataset of Gash River flow, irrigated area, and the evapotranspiration demand of the major sorghum crop. Data collection included field measurements, surveys, remote sensing, and CropWat modelling. The analysis revealed that the current three-year rotation-based irrigation system, capping cultivated land at 33,000 hectares annually, is excessively risk-averse. While this strategy reduced conflicts by consistently delivering promised land, it increased GAS's vulnerability to flood damage. The floodwater use efficiency over the past decade was around 26%, leaving significant amounts of floodwater untapped, which caused damage to infrastructure and agricultural land.

The three-rotation system also led to inadequate infrastructure maintenance due to infrequent land tillage, allowing the invasive mesquite tree to overtake 70,000 hectares in the past 20 years, reducing the sorghum cropped area and contributing to reduced agricultural productivity. The water balance analysis suggests a shift to a two-year rotation system, cultivating approximately 50,000 hectares annually while maintaining risk aversion. This change could increase annual agricultural production from about 50,000 to 75,000 tons at the current sorghum yield of 1.5 tons/ha without significant infrastructural or farming improvements. Introducing integrated interventions that combine improved canal maintenance, better field water distribution, and effective coordination of farmer organizations could increase the cultivated area of large irrigation plots (ranging from 420 to 756 hectares) from 40% to 70%. These interventions could increase sorghum yield by two-thirds to 2.5 tons/ha and triple water productivity to 0.24 kg/m³.

Keywords: Floodwater Optimization, Climate-induced Changes, Integrated Interventions, Improved and Resilient Crop and Water Productivity

How to cite: Zenebe, M.: Optimizing Climate Resilient and Productivity in Flood Dependent Agricultural Systems, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10950, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10950, 2025.

Climate change challenges our communities to build resilience in the face of natural disasters that do not stop at frontiers. In this context, the European RED ROSES project appear as an initiative of cooperation between France and Italy in the cross border region to strengthen prevention, monitoring and response capabilities of civil society actors in addressing specific natural disasters (floods, landslides and wild fires) in the context of climate crises. Multiple actors are involved on this effort providing essential information and collaboratively creating a data ecosystem where local and national authorities, natural hazard risk experts, humanitarian workers and crisis management operators interact and exchange data to respond to emergencies.

For sharing these data, we designed and implemented the RED ROSES Digital Geospatial Ecosystem (DGE) prototype, in first instance as a tool for quick response of French and Italian Red Crosses. The DGE was built orchestrating multiple geospatial open source software (including the GIS3W suite) and storing  data  at local and central nodes, which can be remotely administrated by authorized users.

We selected relevant data on this scope: catalogues of past landslides, floods and wildfires, as well as their respective hazard maps. Part of these data were translated and harmonised to facilitate their use on the cross border region. Near real-time data are also available, such as weather from meteorological agencies and satellite images from Copernicus European agency. The platform also include data on exposed elements (such as population distribution, roads, rail maps, etc.) and data collected by volunteers in the field using an orchestrated Kobo Toolbox instance. Additionally, a Decision Support Systems (DSS) devoted to support the Red Cross operative procedures before during and in the aftermath of a natural disaster has been designed and deployed .

We conducted a initial test of the RED ROSES DGE in October 2024 during a joint exercise organized by the Red Cross, incorporating  COVALEX and RED ROSES projects, in Bresso (Italy). The exercise featured a simulated emergency triggered by a Medicane (Mediterranean hurricane) impacting the cross border region, and presented to the Red Cross volunteers. The scenario was designed to replicate real-world crisis conditions and evolved dynamically through its phases, requiring participants to analyze risks, anticipate impacts, and respond to complex challenges in real time. The initiative underscored the importance of territorial risk prevention, seamless coordination, and evidence-based decision-making across borders.

The RED ROSES DGE prototype is currently in the engineering phase and will soon be ready for deployment in real-world conditions within the territory for which it was designed (the cross-border area between France and Italy). Furthermore, it can be adapted for implementation in other relevant border or international contexts.

How to cite: Fuenzalida Velasco, A., Marchesini, I., Marçot, N., Mato, C., Reichenbach, P., Sterlacchini, S., Voltolina, D., Melillo, M., Ardot, A., Chaligné, J., Filleau, G., De La Vassière, L., Massucchielli, L., Sangalli, M., Vulpiani, C., and Ritouret, S.: Outcomes of RED ROSES project: A Comprehensive Approach to Cross-Border Natural Disaster Resilience, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11304, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11304, 2025.

In case of natural and / or technological disaster, decision making relies on predictions based on available information, monitoring data and model-based forecasts. Uncertainties are particularly high in emergency situations, with scarce information and strong time constraints [1].

Uncertainty quantification and propagation methods are well established and used in numerous applications such as meteorological forecasting and risk evaluation in various domains (seismic hazard, flooding, environmental consequences of radioactive or chemical releases…). However, there are still challenges in taking these uncertainties into account for decision making, particularly in case of emergency. These challenges are of different natures, shared among different domains and types of risks: (1) how to properly account for all sources of uncertainties, including deep uncertainties that cannot be quantified, inherent to crisis situations? (2) how to fit this uncertainty evaluation within the time constraints of emergency response? (3) how to present and communicate these evaluations in an understandable and practical way for decision makers, accounting for interpretation biases?

We propose a scenario-based approach that combines meta-modelling, to generate many simulations in a short time, with a clustering method that allows to select a few situations or “scenarios”, described by their probability of occurrence and associated impact. This approach is illustrated on two applications: flooding risk [2] and nuclear emergency [3]. This method will be applied in the Natech project within the France 2030 Risks-IRIMA program, to a marine submersion in the Gironde estuary combined with nuclear and industrial accidents. The aims will be (1) to include decision-oriented parameters (such as population or critical infrastructures) in the clustering process, (2) to involve stakeholder panels in the design of evaluation products, (3) to better understand how cognitive biases will affect the decision-making process for different kinds of risks and evaluation products.

[1]          P. Bedwell et al., ‘Operationalising an ensemble approach in the description of uncertainty in atmospheric dispersion modelling and an emergency response’, Radioprotection, vol. 55, no. HS1, Art. no. HS1, 2020, doi: 10.1051/radiopro/2020015.

[2]          C. Sire, R. Le Riche, D. Rullière, J. Rohmer, L. Pheulpin, and Y. Richet, ‘Quantizing Rare Random Maps: Application to Flooding Visualization’, J. Comput. Graph. Stat., pp. 1–16, Apr. 2023, doi: 10.1080/10618600.2023.2203764.

[3]          Y. El-Ouartassy, I. Korsakissok, M. Plu, O. Connan, L. Descamps, and L. Raynaud, ‘Combining short-range dispersion simulations with fine-scale meteorological ensembles: probabilistic indicators and evaluation during a 85Kr field campaign’, EGUsphere, vol. 2022, pp. 1–35, Aug. 2022, doi: 10.5194/egusphere-2022-646.

How to cite: Korsakissok, I., El Ouartassy, Y., Raynaud, L., and Richet, Y.: Clustering methods for decision making: application to flood risks and radiological emergencies, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17145, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17145, 2025.

One of the key issues of this century is climate change and its adverse effects. As the incidence hydrometeorological hazards rise more and more communities are exposed to their risks. It is becoming increasingly evident that existing infrastructure is not enough for providing the necessary levels of protection. The size of pipes in drainage systems, stormwater storage, and reservoirs cannot be increased indefinitely to reduce the impact of these events. An alternative that has been becoming more mainstream for risk reduction is NBS. They have proven to be effective over different scales from small urban systems such as green roofs, rain gardens and porous pavements to large-scale measure that include floodplain restoration, retention ponds, and riparian forest buffers.

NBS provide not only the benefit of risk reduction. They can be designed with multifunctionality in mind to provide co-benefits of increased biodiversity, carbon sequestration, pollution reduction and more. Their performance is strongly rooted in the design choices. With the predicted changes in the risk landscape, integrating flexibility and robustness in its design becomes increasingly important.

The principle of robust design has been used in engineering and manufacturing for a long time. Taguchi (1986) pioneered the concept of robust parameter design, an approach for designing long lasting and durable systems. The concept of robust design was further developed to include robust control (Saleh et al. 2003, Spiller et al. 2015) as a means of controlling how a system reacts to a disturbance, by active control. Mens et al. (2011) defined robustness as a system’s ability to function over a large range of magnitude of disturbance. Robust design approaches may be adopted in the design of NBS to ensure that the system remains fail-safe, to ensure that the exceedance of design conditions do not have devastating consequences. These concepts have been applied in the design of climate adaptation actions, but there is limited research in its application in the design of large-scale NBS.

This research advances our knowledge in robust design, by using robust parameter to design to design fail-safe NBS, by defining criteria for measuring robustness and using hydrodynamic modelling and GIS multicriteria analysis to measure the effectiveness of robust design using the RECONECT case study area Tamnava basin. This is an ongoing study. 

How to cite: Mubeen, A., Ruangpan, L., Vojinovic, Z., and Plavšić, J.: Towards robust design of nature-based solutions for climate adaptation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19316, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19316, 2025.