A new set of Copernicus early warning and emergency services to improve the response to the challenges of climate change

Climate change is steadily amplifying its impact on human lives and security. In this context, advancing research and developing enhanced tools are essential for an effective response. CENTAUR (Copernicus ENhanced Tools for Anticipative Response to climate change in the emergency and secURity domain), a three-year project launched in 2022 as part of the Horizon Europe research and innovation programme (Grant Agreement No 101082720), aims to address societal challenges posed by climate change. The project focuses on developing and demonstrating new service components for the Copernicus Emergency Management Service (CEMS) and the Copernicus Security Service - Support to EU External and Security Actions (CSS-SESA).

CENTAUR seeks to improve situational awareness and preparedness for climate-related threats and provides an early warning system that generates alerts when predefined crisis indicator thresholds are exceeded. By integrating data from diverse sources, including meteorological and socio-economic data as well as data from innovative sensors (e.g., traditional and social media), the project enhances existing capacities to produce composite risk indexes and perform multi-criteria analyses. The project addresses two main domains: Urban Floods (UF), which focuses on mitigating flood-related risks to populations, assets, and infrastructure in urban areas, and Water and Food Security which looks at the impact of water and food insecurity as precursors to political instability, conflict, and forced displacement. These domains are interconnected through a cross-cutting component that examines exposure and vulnerability to climate change, societal resilience, and capacity for managing environmental risks and social conflicts.

CENTAUR evaluates a variety of use cases to test models and validate indicators. Seven use cases are analyzed across diverse contexts: France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Mali, Mozambique, and Somalia. The project began with the assessment of "Cold" cases - examining past crisis events in these regions. It has now transitioned to the "Hot" cases phase, focusing on ongoing or imminent events during the project's duration. The Italian use case explores the Piedmont region, particularly the flood-prone areas surrounding the Po and Tanaro rivers in Turin and Ceva, respectively. This use case highlights the integration of advanced 3D modeling techniques, supported by high-resolution datasets and LiDAR scans, to enhance flood prediction and impact assessment. Results derived from innovative indicators and complex indexes computed during the "Cold" cases phase will be presented.