This session explores advanced methodologies for multi-hazard risk assessment and climate adaptation in urban and metropolitan areas. Emphasizing multi-scale, interdisciplinary approaches, it aims to develop a comprehensive understanding of multi-hazard interactions and their impacts on urban systems. The session explores both quantitative and qualitative methods to model risks and vulnerabilities across physical, socio-economic, health, and environmental dimensions, addressing the complexities of emerging challenges. It encourages the development of effective risk management solutions and urban planning strategies that align with global initiatives such as the UN Sendai Framework and NextGenerationEU recovery plans.
We encourage submissions addressing i) methodologies for assessing dynamic urban vulnerabilities and exposure to multi-hazard risks, including climate change-induced hazards; ii) methodologies and tools for understanding cascading and compounding effects on physical, socio-economic, and environmental systems, and their implications for disaster risk reduction; iii) strategies and pathways for enhancing urban resilience through governance transformation, comprehensive risk management, and designing solutions for carbon neutrality and climate adaptation; iv) case studies that test multi-risk mitigation and adaptation strategies; v) decision-support tools for assessing and implementing mitigation actions in urban settlements; vi) urban labs and city-scale exercise for risk scenarios evaluation; vii) co-design, capacity building and development of tools addressing the non-technical actors of public institutions, stakeholders of civil society, and the population.
Orals: Wed, 30 Apr | Room 1.15/16
The climate emergency and rising of average temperatures pose major challenges not only in worldwide but also in local contexts. As also reported in the scientific literature, heat waves – especially at the Italian national level – are an increasing phenomenon in terms of intensity, frequency and duration; related impacts becomes more critical in high-density cities as also a consequence of the heat island effect. Climate shelters represent one of the design measures to adapt and mitigate the climate impacts in urban settlements providing safe and temperate indoor and outdoor spaces for the exposed population. The main function of climate shelter is to reduce heat exposure and prevent adverse health effects especially for fragile population, serving as a critical urban infrastructure and as social gathering places for essential resources, protection, safety and comfort, enhancing community resilience and collective well-being.
Based on the scientific literature and on international design experiences, it is possible to define specific design criteria and requirements of climate shelters for the accessibility of the site, the indoor/outdoor users comfort and the design sustainability. It is necessary to ensure safe and comfortable pedestrian access, with shaded pathways and a maximum walking distance. Moreover, the integration of sustainable and multifunctional solutions, such as blue and green measures, is essential to improve the effectiveness of climate shelters. Resilience of urban settlements can then be increase through a network of climate shelter, through a progressive upgrade approach, combining short and long-term interventions. Shelters can be built from public property, even using parts of it. The contribution aims at proposing a simplified handbook with design criteria and requirements to support decision-makers in the design of climate shelter.
Acknowledgements: This study was carried out within the RETURN Extended Partnership and received funding from the European Union Next-GenerationEU (National Recovery and Resilience Plan – NRRP, Mission 4, Component 2, Investment 1.3 – D.D. 1243 2/8/2022, PE0000005
How to cite: Clemente, M. F., D'Ambrosio, V., and Puzone, S.: Climate shelters to improve resilience of urban settlements: design criteria and requirements, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19875, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19875, 2025.
In the context of climate change, the theme of extreme hot temperatures is sparking increasing interest due to their recent increase in terms of frequency and intensity. The WMO defines warm spell as “a persistent period of abnormally warm weather for the time of the year” which can occur at any time of the year. Even though the term heatwave is commonly used to describe the same phenomenon, it is more appropriate for events involving the highest temperature values observed during the year. Furthermore, the identification of such events is complicated by the lack of a common and shared definition: several indices and thresholds have been proposed in literature and are utilized by national alert systems to detect extreme heat events.
The effects of heatwaves on human health posed by heat stress are often exacerbated by concurrent increases in air pollutant concentrations. Nowadays, a lot of studies focus on heatwave events with concurrent increases in tropospheric ozone concentrations, with significant synergistic effects on human health. So far, however, only a few studies have investigated the association between warm spells and increases in particulate matter concentrations. This study aims at filling this gap, focusing on the longest and most intense event occurred in 2023 in the city of Bologna (44.495 N, 11.345 E).
To the scope, the event was identified based on the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) and Excess Heat Factor (EHF). Particulate matter enhancements were identified with an originally developed index based on the seasonal variability of the particulate matter. Specifically, seasonal thresholds for the exceedances’ identification were set based on the 80th percentiles of the seasonal distributions of both PM10 and PM2.5. The methodology herein developed identifies a total of 7 joint events of warm spells and particulate matter increases throughout the year.
In particular, the event occurred between 11th and 20th of July 2023 is the most interesting one owing to its long duration and intensity. This event is characterized in detail from the meteorological, physical and chemical point of view, by employing different observational datasets. The synoptic analysis pointed out a geopotential pattern which favored the transport of Saharan dusts from Algeria towards North of Italy. Concurrently, the African anticyclone presence extended itself over the Italian Peninsula. The analysis of the particle size distribution highlighted a general increase in particle number concentrations for all sizes while the aerosol chemical composition supported the hypothesis that the air masses arrived at the study site from Sahara Desert, by showing increases in concentrations of typical crustal elements.
In conclusion, this work has defined a methodology for the analysis of joint warm spell and particulate matter increase events and elucidated the role of the African blocking anticyclonic pattern as responsible for the event.
This study was carried out within the RETURN Extended Partership and received funding from the European Union Next-GenerationEU (National Recovery and Resilience Plan – NRRP, Mission 4, Component 2, Investment 1.3 - D.D. 1243 2/8/2022, PE0000005).
How to cite: Faggi, A., Maestri, T., Tositti, L., Zappi, A., Martinazzo, M., and Brattich, E.: Characterisation of an event of heatwave and particulate matter enhancement in Bologna, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9773, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9773, 2025.
Urban areas are at the forefront of the climate crisis, facing mounting challenges as global temperatures rise and urbanization accelerates. By 2050, cities are expected to house 70% of the world’s population, intensifying the impacts of extreme weather events like flash floods and exacerbating health burdens, including non-communicable diseases and mental health conditions. These intertwined crises are compounded by socioeconomic inequalities and inadequate access to health-promoting green spaces, underscoring the urgent need for nature-based solutions that integrate environmental resilience with human well-being. This study investigates the potential of green spaces as dual-purpose interventions to address flood risks and improve public health in Enschede, a city in the eastern Netherlands frequently affected by flash floods. The research objectives are to: (1) Identify neighbourhoods most susceptible to urban flooding; (2) Assess areas with the highest socioeconomic, physical, and mental health vulnerabilities; and (3) Explore opportunities to optimize green spaces in high-risk areas to enhance resilience.
Geographic Information System (GIS) tools are employed to evaluate flood risks, green space distribution, and health metrics, using open data sources. Health data (physical, mental, and socioeconomic) are derived from RIVM and CBS respectively, green space data from HUGSI, and flood risk predictions from the Fastflood model. The data are analyzed to produce three key outputs:
- Flood Resilience Map: Neighbourhoods are categorized into four levels, from low to high resilience, based on their capacity to cope with flooding. This capacity is determined by the presence and quality of green spaces, which facilitate water absorption and reduce the impacts of flash floods.
- Health Resilience Map: Using the WHO’s 3-30-300 guideline—30% tree cover and green space access within 300 meters— to evaluate their ability to promote physical and mental well-being. Resilience levels reflect neighbourhoods’ capacity to support health outcomes, with higher resilience indicating better access to green spaces that foster well-being.
- Vulnerability Map: Neighbourhoods are analyzed to identify socioeconomic and health vulnerabilities, focusing on the prevalence of poor mental and physical health. Vulnerable neighbourhoods are categorized into four levels.
These outputs are combined to identify high-risk neighbourhoos of experiencing adverse impacts from flooding and poor health outcomes. A correlation analysis further examines the interplay between environmental vulnerability, health resilience, and the effectiveness of nature-based solutions.
The results highlight neighbourhoods with elevated health risks, pinpointing areas where interventions are most needed. These outputs equip municipalities with actionable insights to optimize green spaces and implement targeted nature-based solutions in high-risk zones. By providing a replicable framework, this multidisciplinary approach facilitates evidence-based urban planning and fosters the development of inclusive, sustainable, and resilient urban environments. Moreover, the framework’s adaptability ensures its applicability to diverse geographic contexts, offering a scalable solution to global urban challenges.
How to cite: Vuillermoz, J., van Rompay, T., Beerlage-de-Jong, N., Amir Haeri, M., and Blanford, J.: Leveraging Green Space for Climate and Public Health Resilience: A GIS-Based Study in Enschede, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17029, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17029, 2025.
Building resilience through holistic capacity building and climate adaptation is essential as urban systems face unprecedented challenges from multi-hazard risks and climate change, particularly in conflict-affected regions. The Empower Ukraine program (https://metainfrastructure.org/capacity-building/) exemplifies a holistic and collaborative approach to addressing these challenges. It focuses on restoring and enhancing the resilience of critical infrastructure in Ukraine, as the country aims to rebuild its damaged infrastructure in a sustainable and resilient way. This three-year initiative, led by the University of Birmingham in partnership with BridgeUkraine.org, combines interdisciplinary approaches, capacity-building efforts, and knowledge transfer to enhance urban resilience and sustainability in a multi-hazard context.
The program integrates bilingual seminars, a Massive Open Online Course (MOOC), and Microcredentials to train thousands of young researchers and engineers, policymakers, and stakeholders. By leveraging standardised methodologies such as Eurocode design principles and engaging a diverse network of experts, Empower Ukraine bridges gaps in knowledge and practice aiming to foster a strong community of practice. This ensures climate-adaptive and resilient infrastructure reconstruction in a country that has suffered extensive destruction of its build and socioeconomic ecosystems. The initiative also emphasises co-design and participatory processes, empowering local stakeholders to address cascading and compounding risks across physical, socio-economic, and environmental dimensions.
We will present actionable insights from the program, including the use of advanced digital tools, such as Digital Twins and satellite imagery for multi-hazard risk assessment. Additionally, we will demonstrate the integration of resilience and sustainability metrics into the prioritization of the reconstruction of large portfolios of transport assets. Highlighting the integration of climate change adaptation strategies with disaster risk reduction efforts, the paper will explore decision-support tools and governance frameworks aligned with the UN Sendai Framework and EU recovery plans.
By fostering collaboration, harmonising training frameworks, and prioritising sustainability, Empower Ukraine showcases how holistic, interdisciplinary approaches can address complex urban vulnerabilities, enabling cities to adapt and thrive in the face of multi-hazard risks and climate challenges.
How to cite: Mitoulis, S. A., Argyroudis, S., Kopiika, N., Arhun, S., and Sokol, H.: Empower Ukraine: Building resilience through holistic capacity building and climate adaptation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-21230, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-21230, 2025.
As the effects of climate change, population growth, and urbanization intensify, there has been a surge in the frequency and severity of extreme natural hazards, often leading to catastrophic disasters. This escalating threat underscores the pressing need to devise and rigorously test innovative methodologies for risk assessment that consider the complex interactions between multiple hazards.This study aims to develop a comprehensive framework for multi-hazard risk analysis, with a focus on capturing the intricate dynamics between different systems, such as the built environment and human populations, within vulnerable urban settings. To this aim, the study examines specific zones within the urban areas of Palermo and Naples, Italy – two highly complex urban environments with significant populations and exposure to various natural hazards – along with the entire area of the small town of Giampilieri (Sicily). The town experienced significant impacts during the 2009 Messina floods and flow-like landslides, which resulted in at least 31 fatalities and left over 400 people homeless due to the collapse of numerous houses.
The research integrates a diverse array of datasets from both institutional and non-institutional sources (e.g., open data), including historical hazard records, socioeconomic and demographic information, and various environmental variables. These datasets are utilized to simulate interactions among hazards, both in terms of physical phenomena (occurrence interactions) and their resulting impacts (consequence interactions). Probabilistic models and machine learning algorithms (e.g., Bayesian Networks, Random Forest) are explored to capture various hazard dependencies and cascading effects, offering deeper insights into potential impacts on communities and various infrastructure systems (e.g., building and transport networks).
The ultimate goal is to develop scalable decision-support tools for disaster risk management and planning, enhancing resilience and supporting sustainable urban development.
How to cite: Napoli, G. N., Galasso, C., Di Martire, D., Polese, M., Prota, A., and Calcaterra, D.: Integrating Heterogeneous Datasets and Advanced Modelling Techniques for Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment in Urban Environments, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6191, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6191, 2025.
Recent disasters (e.g., the 2023 Türkiye-Syria earthquake and floods) have underscored the potential for multiple natural hazards occurring during a community’s recovery, further prolonging post-disaster recovery times. This study investigates modeling and computational challenges involved in assessing post-disaster recovery trajectories for building structures subjected to plausible initial and secondary hazard scenarios by accounting for various interarrival times and relative intensities (in terms of event mean return period). An illustrative example of a building subjected to an earthquake followed by a flood scenario (with explicit consideration of climate change effects on the flood’s severity and frequency) is showcased by discussing relevant post-disaster delays that occurred before the start of repairs (i.e., impeding factor delays) for each hazard scenario and the impact of the secondary event on the recovery trajectory. For instance, financing through insurance settlement for two hazard events occurring within a short time frame (weeks or months) could be complex and require a much longer time to settle, which then impedes the recovery of the asset. Furthermore, the impact of different damage levels (and corresponding repair classes) to critical structural/non-structural components across both hazards, as well as their potential interactions, on the recovery trajectory is investigated. Finally, this study examines how various policy decisions made at different stages post-disaster influence recovery trajectories. It highlights the complexities and significant uncertainties involved in decision-making, such as delays caused by impeding factors and their interactions under extreme and unexpected secondary events. This understanding can aid in developing dynamic and adaptive policy pathways.
How to cite: Kourehpaz, P. and Galasso, C.: Modeling and Computational Challenges in Post-disaster Building Recovery under Multiple Hazard Scenarios, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-485, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-485, 2025.
Among the elements exposed to natural hazards in urban settlements, cultural heritage stands out for its unique intangible values and its connection to economic activities and community resilience. study presents a participatory, quantitative framework for assessing the exposure of cultural heritage assets to natural hazards, integrating physical risk metrics with intangible cultural values. Conducted in the historical city of Florence, Italy, the research focuses on flood and seismic hazards, employing innovative methodologies to prioritize heritage conservation based on community-driven insights. The approach combines hazard-specific metrics—such as flood depths and peak ground acceleration for earthquakes—with social value scores obtained through pairwise comparison surveys. This dual analysis identifies the most culturally significant assets at risk, redefining traditional exposure assessments. Community participants, including citizens and cultural association members, rated the relative importance of heritage sites, revealing that museums typically hold higher social value than places of worship.. The inclusion of flood and seismic risk analyses extends the framework's applicability to multi-hazard contexts. By overlaying multi-hazard maps with social value maps, the study highlights a divergence between sites at highest hazard and those of greatest cultural significance, underscoring the need for targeted mitigation strategies. Correlation analyses reveal significant relationships between social value and proxies like ticket price, visitor numbers, and building type, with canonical correlation analysis yielding a predictive accuracy of r=0.75. However, intangible dimensions, such as spiritual and aesthetic values, remain challenging to quantify and evolve over time. The results demonstrate that combining social and physical metrics redefines high-priority areas, shifting focus from traditionally high-risk zones to culturally significant but less physically vulnerable sites. The framework provides a replicable model for disaster risk management, enabling policymakers to integrate societal values into mitigation strategies effectively. Future research could explore other intangible cultural values, broader community engagement, and additional hazard types to further refine and adapt the model.
Acknowledgement: This study was carried out within the RETURN Extended Partnership and received funding from the European Union Next-GenerationEU (National Recovery and Resilience Plan – NRRP, Mission 4, Component 2, Investment 1.3 – D.D. 1243 2/8/2022, PE0000005)
How to cite: Castelli, F., Masi, M., De Lucia, C., and Arrighi, C.: Multi-risk management for cultural heritage in an urban context: implications of valuing, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11248, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11248, 2025.
High-Impact Low-Probability (HILP) Events are catastrophic events characterised by a lack of precedence and high levels of uncertainty due to their cascading and compounding dynamics. Over recent decades, these events have become more likely as the interconnectedness of social and ecological systems has grown, heightening the risk of cascading failures across sectors and amplifying the impacts of initial triggers. As traditional risk-based approaches often fail in analyzing complex risk interactions, a more holistic methodology is needed to identify cross-sectoral vulnerabilities, common failure points, and strategies to improve systemic resilience. The AGILE project aims to fill this gap by developing a methodology for understanding, assessing, managing, and communicating HILP events with a systemic, risk-agnostic and systemic resilience perspective. The proposed methodology is subdivided into 3 tiers with increasing levels of detail: the first tier is the scoping study, i.e. the mapping of the system critical functions and their relationships, and developing a guideline structure for table-top exercises; the second tier refers to the identification and parametrization of interdependences and feedback loops between critical functions to gauge single-points-of failure; finally the third tier aims to uses network analysis and technological innovations (e.g. artificial intelligence and machine learning) to create an asset-level representation of systemic performance, evaluating flows of information, resources, and energy through the system in real time.
This paper describes the methodological approach under development for the third tier and its preliminary application to the metropolitan city of Venice. The system is conceptualized as a network, with nodes representing key elements that drive the city's functionality, such as transportation infrastructure, communication systems, ecosystems, households, and economic activities, while links represent the dependencies between these components. The quantification of the links poses significant challenges, requiring a combination of available data, expert input, and, where possible, machine learning and artificial intelligence techniques. By drawing analogies between graph metrics and risk variables, this network analysis identifies key elements that could exacerbate system failure (for example, authority and closeness of a node can be associated with exposure and vulnerability of the corresponding critical function). Simulations are used to explore how risks might propagate through the network, offering valuable insights into potential consequences and strategies for resilience enhancement. Efforts are ongoing to define and refine Venice’s systemic network, with a focus on understanding and addressing vulnerabilities to enhance urban resilience in the face of future HILP events.
How to cite: Torresan, S., Maraschini, M., Ferrario, D. M., Casagrande, S., Ghaffarian, S., Trump, B. D., Linkov, I., Palma-Oliveira, J., and Critto, A.: High-Impact Low-Probability events and Systemic Resilience: A Network-Based Methodology and its application to the metropolitan city of Venice, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12945, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12945, 2025.
Virtual cities are useful tools to support the management and administration of cities, allowing the simulation-based and replicable study of the urban settlements along with their organizational and functional arrangements as well as of socio-economic phenomena. In addition, simulations can inform planners and designers for evaluating current and future policies, as well as transformative trends and the effectiveness of functional-spatial and typological-morphological arrangements for contrasting hazardous phenomena. In this context, the use of simulation processes allows to experiment different relationships between components and select the most relevant parameters to explain real processes. Within the Extended Partnership RETURN - multi-Risk sciEnce for resilienT commUnities undeR a changiNg climate – funded by the National Recovery and Resilience Plan, the RETURNVILLE virtual testbed is built. The configuration of RETURNVILLE starts from the idea underlying the model of Aldo Rossi's Analogous City (1976), proposing a collage of elements and urban parts in the typological-morphological construction of an imagined territory. RETURNVILLE is a digital model allowing to simulate multi-risk processes that can be activated in (portions of) representative contexts of urban and metropolitan settlements in Italy, to assess the impacts and evaluating the effect of alternative Disaster Risk Management DRM and Climate Change Adaptation CCA strategies, e.g through visualization of alternative outcomes of what-if scenarios. RETURNVILLE does not represent a real city, instead it is a digital model allowing to assess realistic contexts. Hence, its constituent parts or urban parts and districts, are defined referring to real urban contexts in Italy; moreover, the urban parts are equipped with real data, allowing for realistic simulations. Indeed, even if not recognizable, the virtual testbed as “simulacrum” should reproduce adequate complexity that only comes from real data. The selection of urban parts to build RETURNVILLE is based on information retrieved from: a) a preliminary proposal of urban settlements clustering of the Italian municipalities; b) the impeding hazard levels for urban settlements for several relevant hazards in Italy; c) real data availability, e.g. from case studies. Considering the urban centredness degree (DPS, 2013) and referring to urban hubs or inter-municipal hubs, i.e. urban settlements which are also service offering centres (stand-alone or as a network), here we introduce a first proposal for RETURNVILLE hypothesized as a virtual city laying on a coastal area. Urban parts characterized by varying density of the built environment (e.g. characteristics of a “dense” city for the centre, or “diffuse” for periphery areas) are selected among municipalities belonging to the clusters containing hubs and inter-municipal hubs, considering also the variable hazard levels for earthquakes, floods, heatwaves and landslides and taking into account ongoing studies and data availability from case-study applications.
References
A.Rossi, La città analoga, in «Lotus», n.13, 1976, pp. 4-7.
DPS (2013). Le aree interne: di quali territori parliamo? Nota esplicativa sul metodo di classificazione delle aree (in Italian). https://www.agenziacoesione. gov.it/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/Nota_metodologica_Aree_interne-2-1.pdf.
Acknowledgements: This study was carried out within the RETURN Extended Partnership and received funding from the European Union Next-GenerationEU (National Recovery and Resilience Plan – NRRP, Mission 4, Component 2, Investment 1.3 – D.D. 1243 2/8/2022, PE0000005
How to cite: Polese, M., Losasso, M., D'Ambrosio, V., Tocchi, G., Di Palma, B., Talevi, F., Bosone, M., Clemente, M., Sferrratore, A., and Prota, A.: Defining RETURNVILLE: a virtual testbed to support DRM and CCA in urban settlements, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11689, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11689, 2025.
This study introduces a multi-risk storyline framework with the municipality of Genoa as a case study. Risk storylines are narrative-based tools that describes how hazards interact, evolve, and cause cascading impacts in a specific context. They can provide a holistic, accessible understanding of multi-hazard scenarios especially within dense and complex urban environments, helping policymakers and stakeholders prepare for and mitigate cascading events. The research contributes to advancing the understanding of risks posed by extreme natural events in relation to urban settlements, a key pillar of the 2015 UNDRR Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction. The necessity of Disaster Risk Management (DRM) to anticipate the exacerbation of natural hazards due to climate change further underscores the importance of this work. The study was developed within the Extended Partnership (EP) RETURN initiative, focusing on enhancing multi-risk science to build resilient communities in a changing climate.
Genoa, a coastal metropolitan area characterized by a complex topography, dense urbanization, and susceptibility to a range of climatic, hydraulic, and geophysical hazards, serves as case study for the application of the storyline framework. Sequential and compounding events such as heatwaves, thunderstorms, floods, landslides, and earthquakes are analyzed within this context, highlighting their interactions and cumulative impacts: The urban heat island effect intensifies heatwave-related risks, particularly for vulnerable populations residing in poorly ventilated or retrofitted buildings, thunderstorms frequently trigger surface flooding due to impermeable urban surfaces and overwhelmed drainage systems, while hydrogeological instability in hilly peri-urban areas leads to landslides. The cascading effects of these hazards amplify damage when followed by moderate earthquakes, particularly in historical and ageing structures. This study identifies key vulnerabilities in Genoa, including ageing infrastructure, poorly maintained or retrofitted buildings, flood-prone urban areas, and limited emergency response capabilities due to a fragmented transportation network. These vulnerabilities exacerbate risks such as damage to buildings and infrastructure, increased morbidity and mortality, displacement, economic losses, and environmental degradation. Furthermore, cascading impacts strain public health systems and critical services, creating long-term socio-economic challenges for residents and businesses alike. Aligned with RETURN’s core objective of fostering resilient communities, the study emphasizes the need for integrated urban planning and multi-risk management strategies, suggesting recommendations to upgrade critical infrastructure, retrofit vulnerable buildings, improve emergency response systems, and leveraging participatory approaches to engage stakeholders across public, private, and academic sectors. By applying the risk storyline framework, the study not only improves DRM strategies in Genoa but also provides a replicable model for other urban areas facing compounding risks.
How to cite: Rago, M., Lagomarsino, S., and Cattari, S.: A Multi-Risk Storyline Framework for Urban Disaster Risk Management: the case of Genoa, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-21752, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-21752, 2025.
Weather extremes and climate change can exacerbate subsidence in urban costal and delta areas. Subsidence risk management requires strategies that integrate mitigation and prevention of both ground sinking and damage to constructions. These strategies include structural (i.e., technical) measures, such as soil improvements, groundwater management and construction enhancements, and non-structural (i.e., non-technical) measures, such as policies, regulations, and urban planning. Despite their importance, local governments often lack systematic methodologies for choosing appropriate measures.
This study presents a practical framework to assist stakeholders and policymakers in managing subsidence and damage to constructions in urban areas. The framework evaluates the applicability and effectiveness of structural mitigation and prevention measures to identify optimal solutions.
The first step involves determining the applicability of measures using a Question-and-Response (Q&R) system. The system features eight inquiries that address critical factors influencing the decision-making: the primary cause of subsidence, the dominant geology of the area, the objective of the intervention, the scale of application, and the type of urban area. Based on the responses to these questions, the framework generates a list of applicable measures aligned with local priorities. Then, the selected measures are further evaluated for their effectiveness using four qualitative indicators: reduction potential, operational reliability, negative impact and service life. The reduction potential indicates how much subsidence or damage to construction is reduced; the operational reliability determines the functionality of a measure during its life; the negative impact accounts for any potential adverse effect; and the service life reflects the expected durability of a measure.
By combining applicability and effectiveness assessments, stakeholders and policy makers can refine their selection of structural measures in urban areas ensuring that they are both practical and impactful. The proposed procedure is based on a review of 52 scientific publications, and insights from surveys and expert sessions. This ensures that the methodology reflects current best practices and knowledge in subsidence risk management.
While the framework offers a valuable tool for conducting a quick scan of suitable solutions, it requires further refinement to enhance its utility. Future improvements will include cost-benefit analyses, thus enabling more comprehensive evaluations of the performance of structural measures for subsidence mitigation and prevention. Additional enhancements may involve sustainability assessment and social safety to balance the financial feasibility with environmental and social impacts.
The proposed framework represents a promising step forward in subsidence risk management. By systematically addressing the applicability and effectiveness of mitigation and prevention measures, it equips local governments with a structured approach to tackle subsidence challenges in urban settings.
How to cite: Nappo, N. and Korff, M.: A decision support framework for subsidence risk reduction in urban areas, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5036, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5036, 2025.
Disasters occurred throughout the world in the last decades, often fuelled and amplified by climate change, have shown how a multi-hazard or multi-risk perspective is essential for effective risk management and for planning efficient risk mitigation and climate change adaptation strategies. Multi-risk assessment is intended to be the overall risk arising from a series of possible adverse events and their interactions with the different specific vulnerabilities of the exposed elements.
To support multi-risk assessment and disaster risk management, a web-platform integrating multi-hazard risk data and conceptual models across Italy is being developed within the framework of the RETURN (Multi-risk science for resilient communities under a changing climate) extended partnership. The platform will allow users to explore and query information related to hazard susceptibility (e.g., seismic, hydrological, heatwave, landslide, and flooding hazards), vulnerability, and exposure of urban settlements and will allow for a comprehensive representation of risk analysis results. Its main goal is to support stakeholders and decision-makers in dealing with complex multi-risk assessments as well as comparing scenarios and design alternatives for risk mitigation/adaptation and increase the urban resilience.
In this work, a series of case studies, referring to specific areas of the Italian territory, is implemented to exemplify and test the platform’s functionalities. A combined approach based on risk storylines and impact chains is adopted to interactively describe multi-risk analysis in urban environments, by including multiple hazards, with their possible interactions, and all the exposed urban assets with the objective of evaluating the socio-economic impacts and related risks. This method, characterized by a synthetic narrative description of realistic multi-risk scenarios, reporting main facts, events and their consequences, is particularly useful when there is the need to go beyond a purely probabilistic approach. For all case studies, along with the definition of a storyline, a graphical conceptual representation is provided through an impact chain, highlighting the causal relationships between impacts and their driving factors on the analysed urban context.
The web-platform will showcase the impact chains with the possibility to explore input and output data of multi-risk assessments and interrogate results, featuring both static and interactive menus. The platform’s technical implementation prioritizes adherence to international geospatial standards (e.g., OGC) and supports various data formats (e.g., shapefiles, raster, and web services). A minimum representation scale of census zones ensures uniform data with an adequate refinement. This preliminary work on selected case studies set the groundwork for the subsequent scaling up of the platform to cover the entire Italian territory.
How to cite: Pittore, M., Tocchi, G., Pozza, L., Ferretti, F., Di Mariano, D., Lagomarsino, S., Cattari, S., Rago, M., D'Ambrosio, V., Zoppi, C., Quattrone, A., and Polese, M.: Implementation of a web platform to support integrated multi-risk assessment and climate risk management in urban areas, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20224, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20224, 2025.
As climate change intensifies natural hazards, rapid urban sprawl in metropolitan settlements has exposed growing populations and infrastructure to vulnerable and hazard-prone areas. Hazard modeling has shifted from focusing solely on natural causes to a complex socio-ecological system (SES) framework. This evolution emphasizes the need for a holistic understanding of urban-hazard interactions when developing effective climate adaptation and urban planning strategies. To address these challenges, we examine the relationship between urban forms and the extent of losses from multiple hazards by incorporating environmental, social, and economic dimensions. We found that (1) compact configuration, when strategically planned, may serve as a resilient development pattern in multi-hazard environments; (2) nature-based solutions have shown partial effectiveness in reducing hazard risks within metropolitan areas; (3) interacting urban form variables substantially influence multi-hazard risks, while individual form variables yield subtle effects. These findings illuminate insights on integrating urban planning across multiple scales for sustainable disaster risk reduction (DRR). We suggest tailored risk reduction strategies considering local contexts, especially for managing population density in urban settlements.
How to cite: He, W. and Weng, Q.: Toward resilient communities: Urban forms that adapt multi-hazard risks, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7705, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7705, 2025.
Climate change is steadily amplifying its impact on human lives and security. In this context, advancing research and developing enhanced tools are essential for an effective response. CENTAUR (Copernicus ENhanced Tools for Anticipative Response to climate change in the emergency and secURity domain), a three-year project launched in 2022 as part of the Horizon Europe research and innovation programme (Grant Agreement No 101082720), aims to address societal challenges posed by climate change. The project focuses on developing and demonstrating new service components for the Copernicus Emergency Management Service (CEMS) and the Copernicus Security Service - Support to EU External and Security Actions (CSS-SESA).
CENTAUR seeks to improve situational awareness and preparedness for climate-related threats and provides an early warning system that generates alerts when predefined crisis indicator thresholds are exceeded. By integrating data from diverse sources, including meteorological and socio-economic data as well as data from innovative sensors (e.g., traditional and social media), the project enhances existing capacities to produce composite risk indexes and perform multi-criteria analyses. The project addresses two main domains: Urban Floods (UF), which focuses on mitigating flood-related risks to populations, assets, and infrastructure in urban areas, and Water and Food Security which looks at the impact of water and food insecurity as precursors to political instability, conflict, and forced displacement. These domains are interconnected through a cross-cutting component that examines exposure and vulnerability to climate change, societal resilience, and capacity for managing environmental risks and social conflicts.
CENTAUR evaluates a variety of use cases to test models and validate indicators. Seven use cases are analyzed across diverse contexts: France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Mali, Mozambique, and Somalia. The project began with the assessment of "Cold" cases - examining past crisis events in these regions. It has now transitioned to the "Hot" cases phase, focusing on ongoing or imminent events during the project's duration. The Italian use case explores the Piedmont region, particularly the flood-prone areas surrounding the Po and Tanaro rivers in Turin and Ceva, respectively. This use case highlights the integration of advanced 3D modeling techniques, supported by high-resolution datasets and LiDAR scans, to enhance flood prediction and impact assessment. Results derived from innovative indicators and complex indexes computed during the "Cold" cases phase will be presented.
How to cite: Oliveti, M., Koçoğlu, B., Lazazzara, G., and Botteghelli, V.: A new set of Copernicus early warning and emergency services to improve the response to the challenges of climate change, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10485, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10485, 2025.
Due to global change and the rising frequency of climate-related hazards, ecosystem services have gained recognition for their potential to reduce disaster risk. Ecosystem services assessment has become an important framework for research, support for policy and decision makers and land use planning. However, there is no commonly accepted approach for integrating ecosystem services into the risk assessment equation in practice. As part of the Horizon Europe funded project RescueME, a customisable framework was developed to incorporate the role of ecosystem services into vulnerability maps, thereby considering both socio-economic and ecological components for a holistic understanding of urban risk. The proposed framework was then tested, through the use of InVEST models, to assess multiple hazards in Valencia, Spain, with a focus on urban vulnerability to heat waves and flooding. The results highlighted a robust synergy between ecosystem services in mitigating heat waves and floods. Further, the integration of socioeconomic data into the model revealed patterns of environmental injustice, with foreigners being disproportionately affected by reduced access to ecosystem services thus resulting in greater vulnerability to the considered climate hazards. The developed model provides actionable insights for decision-support tools and urban land-use planning strategies, emphasizing equitable access to ecosystem services and enhancing urban resilience.
How to cite: Schlechtendahl, J. F., De Luca, C., and Bravaglieri, S.: Incorporating Ecosystem Services into Climate Risk Assessment at an Urban Scale: The Case of Valencia, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11870, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11870, 2025.
Urban areas are increasingly vulnerable to interconnected geophysical, hydraulic, meteorological, climate, and biological hazards. This research builds on a harm assessment framework initially developed for indoor air contaminants and adapts it to assess systemic health impacts across urban hazards using Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) as a unified metric.
The adapted framework was applied to indoor heat exposure in Bolzano’s Casette Inglesi district (Italy), a vulnerable social housing area. Health burdens were quantified for residents, demonstrating the framework’s utility in comparing health risks across scenarios. Preliminary findings suggest significant disparities in health impacts, particularly for the elderly.
Drawing from systematic reviews of DALY applications to earthquakes and floods, this study underscores the feasibility of extending the framework to these hazards. Previous research highlights the use of DALYs in quantifying mortality and morbidity associated with structural failures, displacement, and post-event health impacts. Integrating insights from these studies will inform the framework’s adaptation for cascading and compound hazard scenarios, where multiple risks interact to exacerbate health outcomes.
Future work will refine the framework for broader multi-hazard applications. By leveraging DALYs to standardize health risk assessments, this research provides a novel approach for holistic urban risk management and decision-making in disaster risk reduction.
How to cite: Morantes, G., Pittore, M., Belleri, A., and Lollini, R.: Towards a Unified DALY-Based Framework for Urban Multi-Hazard Health Risk Assessment , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18037, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18037, 2025.
The effects of seismic events can be devastating due to loss of human life, damage to cultural heritage and social fabric. Assessing seismic risk and developing mitigation strategies will remain a critical challenge of this century.
Earthquakes are complex natural phenomena resulting from the sudden release of energy originates typically from either a fault or faults system. Seismic ruptures occur at depth, triggering waves that propagate through the Earth’s crust and surface.
The characteristic of seismic waves, and then the shaking expected at specific interest location, depend on multiple geological factors, including the architecture of the fault source, rupture dynamics, and the properties of the rock volumes where waves propagate.
Numerous studies have shown that local geological features significantly influence the amplification of seismic waves, generating site effects. Such effects, as observed in recent earthquakes (i.e. Aquila, 2009, Mw 6.3), are particularly pronounced in sedimentary basins filled with alluvial material, where mechanical contrasts between host rock and overlying sediments reported.
In this study, we integrated geological and geophysical datasets to construct a preliminary 3D geological model of the Florence Basin (Italy). Oriented NW-SE, the basin is bounded by the Apennine chain to the northeast and the Chianti hills to the southwest. Preliminary analyses reveal both a complex substrate profile and geometry of the limits delimiting the sedimentary infill Units. Recent advances, including a well database with over 2,000 precise data points, detailed gravimetric profile and DEM, have enriched our understanding of the basin. The non-uniform substrate influences sediment thickness, which varies significantly due to the alternating lithologies formed in different depositional environments. This lithological complexity affects the physical and mechanical properties of the geological units, with important implications for seismic wave amplification. Amplification maps from recent microzonation studies highlight a marked zonation of seismic risk. However, these maps insufficient for studying the dynamic behavior of seismic waves in 3D.
Our work focuses on providing tools and methodologies for 3D geological modeling based on analyses of the Florence Basin, a complex case study. The results and approaches we present are crucial for improving seismic risk assessments in other basins. Enhancing local geological datasets has a significant impact on 3D numerical simulations of ground motion, contributing to more effective mitigation strategies and risk management.
How to cite: Novellino, R., Niccolò, I., Daniele, M., Massimo, C., and Paola, V.: The role of 3D geological models in enhancing seismic risk assessment, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19475, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19475, 2025.
Physical modelling of earthquakes and cascading hazards, such as tsunamis or landslides, provides the basis for defining plausible (yet unobserved) multi-hazard and risk scenarios. The developed scenarios supply a systematic method for exploring how the complex interplay between hazards and urban systems may impact a society, and can be applied to support and rationalise decision making and inform preparedness for multi-risks management and mitigation (e.g. Strong, Carpenter and Ralph, 2020. Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies).
Significant earthquake-induced tsunamis in the Northern Adriatic are rare, with most historical events reported along the central and southern coasts, hence related risk awareness is limited. Although a tsunami alert system has been established for the Mediterranean region and connected seas, a detailed understanding of the potential impacts of tsunami waves on coastal areas is still lacking for many sites. Here we consider hazard scenarios associated with potential tsunamis generated by offshore earthquakes to contribute to tsunami risk assessments for urban areas along the Northeastern Adriatic coasts (Peresan and Hassan, MEGR 2024). Tsunami modelling is conducted using the NAMI DANCE software (Yalciner et al. 2014 and references therein), which accounts for seismic source properties, bathymetry, topography and non-linear effects in wave propagation. Earthquake induced hazard scenarios are developed for selected coastal areas of Northeastern Italy, focusing on selected cities such as Trieste and Lignano. The modelling considers a wide set of potential earthquake-induced tsunami scenarios, with sources defined based on historical tsunami catalogues and active fault databases. Existing bathymetry and topography datasets are refined to incorporate high-resolution data (25-meter and 10-meter resolutions) and to better capture small-scale coastal features that influence tsunami inundation. The modelling provides a set of tsunami hazard-related parameters, such as arrival times and inundation maps, which are critical for planning emergency and mitigation actions in these areas.
For effective multi-hazard disaster risk reduction and mitigation, high-resolution exposure models are needed at the local scale, especially for hazards like tsunamis and flooding, which exhibit high spatial variability. We consider here a methodology for developing high-resolution exposure models for population and residential buildings to support local multi-hazard risk assessments. Tested and validated for a coastal area in the Northeastern Adriatic, the methodology combines global population density data with national census data for greater accuracy. Building census data is enhanced with exposure indicators, such as built area, replacement cost, height, and plan regularity, derived from digital building footprints. The final exposure layers are created at 100-meter and 30-meter resolutions and also at the census unit level. These high-resolution exposure models, integrated with tsunami hazard maps, allow improving the resolution of risk and damage assessments.
Finally, the possibility is explored to use the resulting risk scenarios for developing plausible storylines to enhance urban planning, preparedness, response, and mitigation efforts for coastal hazards in the Northeastern Adriatic.
This research is a contribution to the RETURN Extended Partnership (European Union Next-Generation EU—National Recovery and Resilience Plan—NRRP, Mission 4, Component 2, Investment 1.3—D.D. 1243 2/8/2022, PE0000005).
How to cite: Peresan, A., Hassan, H., Badreldin, H., and Scaini, C.: Physical modelling of plausible earthquake-induced tsunami scenarios and risk assessment at urban scale: a case study in Northeastern Italy, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20127, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20127, 2025.
As the climate crisis intensifies, extreme weather events such as heatwaves and urban flooding are becoming increasingly frequent, posing significant risks to urban environments. This escalating threat underscores the urgent need for effective adaptation measures to mitigate climate risks and enhance urban resilience. However, selecting appropriate adaptation options remains a challenging endeavor due to the paucity of information regarding their quantitative effectiveness. To address these challenges and facilitate science-based decision-making, an information system that provides systematic and comprehensive data on a wide array of existing adaptation options is imperative. The primary objective of this research is to develop a systematic inventory of adaptation options and establish an information system tailored for use by practitioners and experts engaged in climate change adaptation. The adaptation options have been meticulously compiled through an extensive review of national and local climate crisis adaptation plans, government support programs, reports on conventional and emerging technologies, and existing literature on climate resilience. These options are subsequently categorized based on adaptation sectors, spatial levels of application, and their technological characteristics. The inventory of adaptation options is conceived as a decision-making tool primarily for policymakers and government officials, enabling them to swiftly identify feasible and effective adaptation options at national and regional levels. It empowers users to explore a comprehensive list of potential adaptation technologies tailored to their specific conditions. Additionally, it provides detailed information, including definitions and classifications, mechanisms of action, components, design and construction methods, relevant legislation and policies, anticipated benefits and monitoring guidelines, and real-world applications.
[Acknowledgement] This paper is based on the findings of the environmental technology development project for the new climate regime conducted by the Korea Environment Institute (2024-017(R)) and funded by the Korea Environmental Industry & Technology Institute (2022003570004).
How to cite: Jung, H., Lee, D., Lee, S., and Ho, J.: Developing a systematic inventory of adaptation options to enhance urban climate resilience in Korea through an advanced information system, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5246, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5246, 2025.
Posters virtual: Wed, 30 Apr, 14:00–15:45 | vPoster spot 3
EGU25-20251 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS13
Surface Urban Heat Island in Bolzano (Italy): Evaluating the Role of Morphometric and Biophysical CharacteristicsWed, 30 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST) | vP3.12
Urbanization continues to accelerate, driving global warming change and, at more local scale, land cover changes. In cities, new surface materials, buildings, roads and changes to the surface morphology alter airflow and heat exchange between the urban surface and the atmosphere. As a result, cities are almost always warmer than their surroundings rural area in a phenomenon known as Urban Heat Island (UHI) that could represent a hazard for city inhabitants. Consequently, it is important to evaluate the magnitude of the UHI and understand the urban characteristics involved in its formation process.
The aim of the present study is to assess the Surface Urban Heat Island (SUHI) in Bolzano urban area evaluating its correlation with the urban morphology and its biophysical characteristics. The indices considered to describe the urban morphology are Building Coverage Ratio (BRC), Building Volume Density (BVD), Mean Building Height (MBH), Green Space Ratio (GRS), and Sky View Factor (SVF) at 30 m resolution. The biophysical indices considered are albedo, Normalized Difference Built-up Index (NDBI), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and Land Surface Temperature (LST) at 30 m resolution.
The morphological indices were calculated starting from building, green area, land cover data, and DEM, whereas biophysical indices were derived from Landsat 8/9 OLI/TIRS satellite images. Two images, one for the summer season and one for the winter season, were selected based on air temperature and absence of clouds: 07/19/2022 during a 7-days period of very high temperatures and 02/14/2021 during a 7-days period of very low temperatures. Subsequently, a linear model analysis was fitted, setting the Urban Heat Island Intensity (UHII) as the dependent variable and the morphological and biophysical indices as independent variables.
Results showed how some indices were positive or negative correlated with the UHII both in summer and winter, whereas other had a different behavior depending on the season.
Results regarding summer period highlighted UHII positive correlations with most of the morphological indices and negative correlation with most biophysical indices. In contrast, in winter, all the biophysical indices were positive correlated with the UHII. Moreover, most morphological indices were positive correlated with it.
Understanding which urban characteristics impact more in the SUHI formation is crucial for improving city environment and people health and this study set a first step into it.
This study was carried out within the RETURN Extended Partnership and received funding from the European Union Next-GenerationEU (National Recovery and Resilience Plan – NRRP, Mission 4, Component 2, Investment 1.3 – D.D. 1243 2/8/2022, PE0000005) – SPOKE TS 1.
How to cite: Dalla Vecchia, C., Dalle Vedove, L., Vigato, T., Zandonella Callegher, C., and Giussani, F.: Surface Urban Heat Island in Bolzano (Italy): Evaluating the Role of Morphometric and Biophysical Characteristics, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20251, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20251, 2025.
