A 150-Year Record of Past Radiation Belt Electron Enhancement Events: Development and Application to Space Weather Forecasting

As part of the Horizon Europe FARBES (Forecast of Actionable Radiation Belt Scenarios) project, we have developed a method to automatically identify past radiation belt electron enhancement events using a ground-based geomagnetic index [Bernoux et al., 2025, accepted for publication in AGU ESS]. This method has enabled the production and publication of a list of over 150 years of past radiation belt electron enhancement events. By cross-referencing with catalogues of interplanetary events (SIRs, ICMEs), we have been able to assign a possible interplanetary cause to each post-1995 radiation belt event. In this presentation, we will first present the methodology used to derive the list of events and discuss how it can become a valuable asset to the community for both space weather and space climate studies. In particular, we will demonstrate its application to the analysis of extreme events and also highlight its potential for forecasting purposes, using a simple but effective analogue ensemble-based methodology that allows us to provide forecasts of the Kp index as physically credible scenarios. By using this historical context, we can provide more robust forecasting capabilities, ultimately improving the resilience of critical infrastructure to space weather impacts.