- 1Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel, Institute of Experimental and Applied Physics, Physics, Germany (loewe@physik.uni-kiel.de)
- 2Solar System Science & Exploration Division, Southwest Research Institute, Boulder, CO, USA
- 3School of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, PR China
- 4Leidos Corporation, Houston, TX, USA
- 5German Aerospace Center (DLR), Institute of Aerospace Medicine, Cologne, Germany
The radiation environment en route to and on Mars is dominated by sporadic Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events and omnipresent Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCRs). Both pose significant health risks for future crewed Mars missions due to high radiation exposure, increasing the long-term cancer risk. In extreme cases, acute radiation syndromes (ARS) may occur during intense SEP events, particularly if astronauts are exposed to high-dose rates during extravehicular activities.
Forecasting the occurrence and intensity of SEP events using tools such as ESPERTA, UMASEP, or REleASE is therefore crucial to provide astronauts with sufficient time to seek shelter. However, this task remains highly challenging due to the variability of SEP events, the diverse heliospheric configurations, limited data and instrumentation, as well as the complexity of prediction models. Moreover, these systems are specifically designed for the Earth or Earth-Moon system, making their applicability to Mars missions uncertain.
To adress this, we present a nowcasting system for SEP events in deep space and on the Martian surface, which serves as a reliable last backup in cases where forecasts fail. Our system is developed based on dose rate measurements from the Radiation Assessment Detector (RAD) onboard the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) during its 7-month cruise to Mars and over 12 years of operation on the Martian surface. We demonstrate that our nowcasting system provides astronauts with sufficient time to avoid both the peak radiation exposure and the majority of the cumulative dose from SEP
events. Additionally, astronauts are informed when it is safe to leave the shelter, with total shelter durations varying from a few hours to several days depending on the specific event. Our system is easy feasible, implementable in real-life scenarios, and achieves a near-zero false alarm rate both in
deep space and on the Martian surface, as verified using data from MSL/RAD.
How to cite: Löwe, J. L., Wimmer-Schweingruber, R., Khaksarighiri, S., Hassler, D., Guo, J., Ehresmann, B., Zeitlin, C., Matthiä, D., Berger, T., Reitz, G., and Löffler, S.: Nowcasting Solar Energetic Particle Events for Mars Missions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11043, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11043, 2025.
