Multi-risk management for cultural heritage in an urban context: implications of valuing

Among the elements exposed to natural hazards in urban settlements, cultural heritage stands out for its unique intangible values and its connection to economic activities and community resilience. study presents a participatory, quantitative framework for assessing the exposure of cultural heritage assets to natural hazards, integrating physical risk metrics with intangible cultural values. Conducted in the historical city of Florence, Italy, the research focuses on flood and seismic hazards, employing innovative methodologies to prioritize heritage conservation based on community-driven insights. The approach combines hazard-specific metrics—such as flood depths and peak ground acceleration for earthquakes—with social value scores obtained through pairwise comparison surveys. This dual analysis identifies the most culturally significant assets at risk, redefining traditional exposure assessments. Community participants, including citizens and cultural association members, rated the relative importance of heritage sites, revealing that museums typically hold higher social value than places of worship.. The inclusion of flood and seismic risk analyses extends the framework's applicability to multi-hazard contexts. By overlaying multi-hazard maps with social value maps, the study highlights a divergence between sites at highest hazard and those of greatest cultural significance, underscoring the need for targeted mitigation strategies. Correlation analyses reveal significant relationships between social value and proxies like ticket price, visitor numbers, and building type, with canonical correlation analysis yielding a predictive accuracy of r=0.75. However, intangible dimensions, such as spiritual and aesthetic values, remain challenging to quantify and evolve over time. The results demonstrate that combining social and physical metrics redefines high-priority areas, shifting focus from traditionally high-risk zones to culturally significant but less physically vulnerable sites. The framework provides a replicable model for disaster risk management, enabling policymakers to integrate societal values into mitigation strategies effectively. Future research could explore other intangible cultural values, broader community engagement, and additional hazard types to further refine and adapt the model.

Acknowledgement: This study was carried out within the RETURN Extended Partnership and received funding from the European Union Next-GenerationEU (National Recovery and Resilience Plan – NRRP, Mission 4, Component 2, Investment 1.3 – D.D. 1243 2/8/2022, PE0000005)