EGU25-11757, updated on 15 Mar 2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11757
EGU General Assembly 2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Climate change influence on future landslides in South Alps, France : an analysis of the future meteorological events that trigger landslides
Séverine Bernardie1, Rémi Thieblemont2, and Goneri Le Cozannet2
Séverine Bernardie et al.
  • 1BRGM, DRIS/RMVT, Orléans, France
  • 2BRGM, DRIS/R3C, Orléans, France

The evolution of future rainfall regime (intensity, frequency, season) induced by climate change is likely to change the exposure of infrastructure and housing to the risks of flooding, avalanches and landslides. Several studies indicate that the frequency of landslide occurrence should increase due to climate change. In this context, we applied a statistical analysis of future changes in rainfall conditions triggering landslides in South Alps, France.

In this study, we start from rainfall thresholds under current climate conditions to trigger landslide that have been determined, on the basis of an inventory of recent landslides. Different criteria of landslide triggers are studied, including cumulative rainfall of events and the duration of the events. We then use an ensemble of 17 bias-corrected high-resolution regional climate projections to calculate these criteria for future climate change scenarios, and we compare their evolution with contemporary climate conditions.

The comparison is based on the number of meteorological events exceeding current rainfall threshold, the evolution of cumulative rainfall of extreme events, as well as their duration. This analysis is carried out on a departmental scale, making it possible to quantify potential future variations according to different climatic contexts (Mediterranean and mountainous context).

How to cite: Bernardie, S., Thieblemont, R., and Le Cozannet, G.: Climate change influence on future landslides in South Alps, France : an analysis of the future meteorological events that trigger landslides, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11757, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11757, 2025.