PICO
A clear and robust evaluation of how ongoing and expected global warming and the resulting climate change can affect these factors and, hence, landslide risk represents a clear key need for practitioners, communities, and decision-makers.
This session aims to provide a discussion forum for studies concerning the analysis of the role of climate-related variables and slope-atmosphere interaction on landslide triggering, propagation, and activity and/or on the effectiveness of protection measures across different geographic contexts and scales. Test cases and investigations (by exploiting monitoring and modelling) to evaluate ongoing and future landslide activity are welcome. Furthermore, investigations focused on data-driven approaches (Machine Learning, AI), through which the variations induced by climate and environmental changes on triggering, dynamics, and hazard are analysed, are greatly welcome.
PICO: Mon, 28 Apr | PICO spot 3
Beyond their immediate environmental impact, landslides pose significant social and economic challenges for vulnerable communities. These highly dynamic natural hazards are mostly triggered by rainfall in many regions worldwide, making it crucial to understand the relationship between precipitation and landslide occurrence. This understanding is key to enhancing the accuracy and reliability of systems that assess and mitigate landslide risks.
To explore this relationship, this study employs a framework similar to that of Berenguer et al. (2015) and Palau et al. (2020) for real-time application. The system integrates landslide susceptibility information with precipitation inputs to generate maps with a qualitative classification of the warning level in four classes. For this analysis, this system combines 3-hourly accumulated precipitation simulations from the EURO-CORDEX dataset (with a resolution of 12.5 km x 12.5 km) and the European Landslide Susceptibility Map (200 m x 200 m), developed by Wilde et al. (2018) and Günther et al. (2014). By merging the fine spatial resolution of the susceptibility dataset with the temporal resolution of precipitation data, the system provides a dynamic representation of landslide hazards that accounts for local susceptibility and precipitation variability.
The framework is designed for application at various scales, from the European level to specific regions. For this study, Catalonia (NE Spain) is the focus area due to the availability of a landslide inventory, which allows for initial validation of the system's preliminary results. Although the inventory has some limitations—such as incompleteness and biases towards events near transportation networks and urban areas—it offers valuable data for validating the framework and identifying its strengths and weaknesses. A historical precipitation dataset (1976–2005) serves as input for simulating past landslide hazards, laying the groundwork for analyzing long-term trends. By comparing simulated precipitation-induced landslides with reported events, insights into the relationship between precipitation patterns and landslide occurrences.
To assess future risks, climate projections from 2011 to 2100 across various timeframes and scenarios are analyzed. Temporal variations in precipitation are examined on monthly and seasonal scales to understand how shifting precipitation patterns may affect landslide-prone conditions in specific regions. This methodology can be improved by incorporating socio-economic risk indicators, such as population density, infrastructure vulnerability, and the economic value of exposed assets. This integration helps transition the focus from hazard assessment to risk analysis, reflecting the potential severity of consequences. Such analysis could help in developing proactive risk management strategies, providing valuable insights into the future dynamics of landslide hazards under changing climatic scenarios.
How to cite: Tapia Hurtado, L. A., Berenguer, M., Park, S., and Sempere-Torres, D.: Climate Assessment of rainfall-induced Landslide Hazard and Risk: Assessing Past Simulations and Future Projections, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11058, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11058, 2025.
Anthropogenic climate change is rapidly altering high mountain environments, including changing the frequency, dynamic behavior, location, and magnitude of alpine mass movements. In this project, we gathered literture (∼1995 to 2024, 335 studies) that have leveraged observational records from the European Alps and review (a) to what degree changes in the frequency, magnitude, dynamic behavior, or location of alpine mass movements can be detected in observational records, and (b) whether detected changes be attributed to climate change and are clear enough to improve hazard management at regional scales. We focused our analysis on the mass movements that are most common in the European Alps, namely rockfall, rock avalanches, debris flows, ice and snow avalanches. We found that the clearest climate-controlled trends are (i) an increased rockfall frequency in high-alpine areas (due to higher temperatures), (ii) fewer and smaller snow avalanches due to scarcer snow conditions in low- and subalpine areas, and (iii) a shift towards avalanches with more wet snow. There is (iv) a clear increase in debris-flow triggering precipitation, but this increase is only partly reflected in debris-flow activity. The trends for (v) ice avalanches are spatially very variable without a clear direction. Quantifying the impact of climate change on these mass movements remains difficult in part due to the complexities of the natural system, but also because of limitations in the available datasets, confounding effects and the limits of existing statistical processing techniques.
How to cite: Jacquemart, M., Weber, S., Chiarle, M., Chmiel, M., Cicoira, A., Corona, C., Eckert, N., Gaume, J., Giacona, F., Hirschberg, J., Kaitna, R., Magnin, F., Mayer, S., Moos, C., Stoffel, M., and van Herwijnen, A.: Detecting the impact of climate change on alpine mass movements in observational records from the European Alps, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16339, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16339, 2025.
The evolution of future rainfall regime (intensity, frequency, season) induced by climate change is likely to change the exposure of infrastructure and housing to the risks of flooding, avalanches and landslides. Several studies indicate that the frequency of landslide occurrence should increase due to climate change. In this context, we applied a statistical analysis of future changes in rainfall conditions triggering landslides in South Alps, France.
In this study, we start from rainfall thresholds under current climate conditions to trigger landslide that have been determined, on the basis of an inventory of recent landslides. Different criteria of landslide triggers are studied, including cumulative rainfall of events and the duration of the events. We then use an ensemble of 17 bias-corrected high-resolution regional climate projections to calculate these criteria for future climate change scenarios, and we compare their evolution with contemporary climate conditions.
The comparison is based on the number of meteorological events exceeding current rainfall threshold, the evolution of cumulative rainfall of extreme events, as well as their duration. This analysis is carried out on a departmental scale, making it possible to quantify potential future variations according to different climatic contexts (Mediterranean and mountainous context).
How to cite: Bernardie, S., Thieblemont, R., and Le Cozannet, G.: Climate change influence on future landslides in South Alps, France : an analysis of the future meteorological events that trigger landslides, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11757, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11757, 2025.
The impact of climate change on the severity and frequency of weather-related hazards is leading to a growing need for multi-hazard studies. The rainfall-induced landslides present a significant risk at local scale, leading to devastating impacts on the built environment and fatalities. The evolution of landslide risk with climate change remains a challenge because of the complex interactions between land parameters and precipitations. To estimate trends in landslide hazard evolution due to modification of rainfall pattern, a framework using a univariate threshold method is developed and applied to Italy. This study employs the LHASA model (Kirschbaum and Stanley, 2018), the ERA5 reanalysis data and climate projections, to determine a precipitation threshold and to assess the dynamic evolution of rainfall-induced landslide triggering. The ITAlian rainfall-induced LandslIdes CAtalogue (ITALICA) is used to evaluate the performance of the model. The 30 years precipitation threshold enables to predict 92% of the events, with a better performance over debris flow. The average number of annual days at risk over 30 years is used to project the propensity of rainfall-induced landslide to be triggered. The spatial and temporal evolution of landslide induced hazard is then analyzed over the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 climate scenarios. The framework identifies areas where the landslide hazard increases relatively strongly over all the climate scenarios.
How to cite: Flahaut, J. and Boiselet, A.: Rainfall-induced landslide: an indicator of the effects of climate change, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18820, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18820, 2025.
Climate change can enhance extreme weather conditions thereby significantly influencing change in precipitation patterns. This results in change to both rainfall intensity and distribution in many parts of the world. The increase in rainfall intensity triger hazards such as flooding and geohazards such as landslides. The impact and scale of flooding hazards are well evaluated and documented. However, geohazards from extreme weather events are not well documented in many developing countries making it difficult to quantify trends, frequency and spatial distribution. This knowledge gap is particularly evident in countries like Malawi, which have been significantly impacted by climate-related extremes, including cyclones. For instance, Tropical Cyclone Freddy which made a landfall in Southern Africa, induced above normal torrential rains in Malawi in March 2023. These rains triggered landslides, mudslides, debris flow and floods which affected 14 districts in the southern region of Malawi (GoM,2023).The size, magnitude and effect of flood hazard from the Tropical Cyclone Freddy was well studied. However, quantifying and mapping spatial patterns of geohazards was not well documented and less prioritized.
In this study, we used sentinel 2, rainfall and field data to a) characterise geohazard from extreme weather events, b) analyse extent of landslides c) develope inventory for geohazards d) quantify the relationship between extreme rainfall events and occurrence of geohazard in southern parts of Malawi. Field survey was conducted in the landslide scarps in Southern Malawi (Blantyre, Thyolo, Phalombe, Chiradzulu and Zomba districts) for ground truthing, mapping landslides, improving accuracy of mapping and validating data from remote sensing analysis. A total of 21 landslides were identified and mapped through field surveys. These ranged in size from localized to more than 50m along the slope. Through remote sensing analysis, it was observed that most of the hazards occurred on different times even if they were exposed to same extreme weather, but all occured within a window period of three days from onset of high intensity rains. This correlates to the peak rainfall intensity observed across many areas. The characteristics of the material from the landslide scarps varied from loam clay, boulders to debri. However, most of the areas were charecterised with steep slopes of above 60o slope angle. Additionally, in some areas geological influence of landlside occurrence was evident, this was inform of dolerite dyke intrustion and some faults. Thus, other than extreme rainfall occurence, landslides were highly influenced by the slope angle and geological factors. Type of material on the slope had minor influence and this was in agreement with the results from regression analysis. These study results will act as guide to predict the occurrence of future geohazards and understand their patterns which is key in predicting future occurrences of the hazards.
Keywords: Remote Sensing, climate change, Cyclone Freddy, landslides, Malawi
References
- Government of Malawi. 2023. Malawi 2023 Tropical Cyclone Freddy Post-Disaster Needs Assessment. Lilongwe
- Malawi: Tropical Cyclone Freddy Department of Disaster Management Affairs (DoDMA) Situation Report No3 (2023)
How to cite: Gulule, E., Mbeya, D., Ngondondo, C., Chiwona, A., Nthara, T., Shaba, T., Chisenga, C., and Maluwa, A.: Using Remote Sensing in Evaluating Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Geological Hazards Triggered by Climate Change Events in Malawi, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-710, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-710, 2025.
As one of the most landslide-prone countries, China also stands out as the most affected countries by climate change worldwide. Understanding the influences of climate change on landslide is a great issue for optimizing the corresponding countermeasures for landslide risk control. In this study, an overview of climate change's influences on landslide in China was investigated, and the developing trends of landslides in various natural topographical regions were analyzed based on two decades of historical recordings. The regions and major categories of landslide that are potentially influenced by climate change are summarized. The results indicate a growing trend of climate change in affecting the geo-environment, leading to the corresponding increase in severity, complexity, and spatial-temporal uncertainties of landslide in China. Accordingly, a more proactive response is warranted to establish a more dynamic, efficient, and integrated framework of landslide risk control. This framework should encompass the entire risk control process from landslide identification, risk assessment, monitoring, early warning and mitigation, to address the issues of "What-Where-When-Why" landslide would occur, "Who" might be the vulnerable elements, and "How" the mitigation should be performed scientifically. This study is expected to help better understand the influences of climate changes on landslide in China, and highlight the countermeasures responding to the challenges from both administrative and scientific research perspectives.
Figure1. the general trend of landslide change under the influence of climate change
Figure2. The typical categories of landslide in China that could be influenced by climate change
How to cite: Tong, B., Zhou, P., Yang, X., Zhang, Y., and Shi, J.: The Landslides under Influence of Climate Change in China, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5305, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5305, 2025.
Landslide activity is expected to increase as climate change reduces mountain slope stability. High-Arctic regions like Svalbard are critical for studying slope dynamics in a changing climate, especially due to arctic amplification effects. Despite the significance of Arctic regions for climate research, empirical evidence in these regions is often lacking due to the absence of long-term, high-resolution terrain data necessary to assess the impact of meteorological conditions on landscapes severely affected by climate change. Bridging this gap is vital for comprehending the intricate relationships between meteorological factors and landslide development in Arctic regions.
This study presents a unique high-resolution on-site dataset from a high-Arctic glacier basin, collected over a 10-year period. Using terrestrial laser-scanning and an autonomous camera network, we investigated the impact of meteorological conditions on the trigger mechanisms of translational debris slides and debris flows in the Austre Lovénbreen glacier basin (Svalbard, Norway).
Translational debris slides accounted for approximately 96% (N = 147) of the total sediment flux observed, with debris flows (N = 21) as a secondary agent. Debris slide activity significantly increased between 2011 and 2021. Heavy rainfall events primarily influenced the frequency and magnitude of debris slides during the hydrological summer, while the duration and intensity of the thawing period were the main controls for their initiation. On the opposite, the impact of winter temperatures or snow parameters was limited. Furthermore, a 2-year return period for large debris flows was identified, representing an increase by a factor of 2.5 to 5 compared to previous estimates for Svalbard and northern Scandinavia in the last decades.
In conclusion, this study highlights the significant impact of meteorological factors on the frequency and magnitude of landslides in high-Arctic glacier basins, providing insights into how climate change controls landslide dynamics in Arctic environments. The expected continuous rise in temperatures and increased heavy rainfall events are likely to further facilitate landslide activity in the Arctic.
Thus, this study shows that long-term observatories like the Austre Lovénbreen glacier are irreplaceable for future research unraveling the impact of climate change on landslide dynamics and that the present climate alterations in the Arctic may provide insights also relevant for other regions.
How to cite: Kuschel, E., Tolle, F., Klaus, V., Laa, U., Prokop, A., Friedt, J.-M., Bernard, E., and Zangerl, C.: Meteorological factors control landslide phenomena in a high-Arctic glacier basin (Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17821, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17821, 2025.
Precise estimations of greenhouse gas budgets for countries contribute to sharpened policies on the national and international level to tackle climate change. Soils pool a considerable amount of carbon and nitrogen within terrestrial ecosystems and a quarter of the Austrian terrestrial surface is dedicated to grassland. In the clay-rich Flysch zone thousands of landslides have been observed. We argue that a better understanding of mechanisms that lead to both phenomena — greenhouse gas fluxes and landslide dynamics — could provide insights into untangling the complexity of the soil carbon and nitrogen cycles and improve greenhouse gas models on active landslides.
To achieve this, we enrich long-term observation of the two landslides in Gresten and Hofermühle, Lower Austria with monitoring of greenhouse gas in different soils, vegetation and land use and of landslide dynamics. Employment of non-steady-state chambers with combination of comprehensive physico-chemical soil analyses, vegetation and land use surveys reveal interconnections between greenhouse gas fluxes and landslide activity. Inclusion of land displacement data gained by inclinometer measurements link our geoecological findings with in-depth landslide movements. Hydrological soil properties, such as moisture content and water-filled pore space (WFSP), impact both greenhouse gas fluxes and landslide activity the most. Additionally, slow-moving landslides alter microrelief, which consequently affects the land use management in grasslands.
We conclude that greenhouse gas fluxes and landslide activities not only share the common preconditionary factors, but also slow-moving landslides influence greenhouse gas fluxes indirectly. Hereby, land-use management is of crucial importance. These findings could ultimately improve current computational greenhouse gas models for territories prone to landslides and support climate policy development.
How to cite: Grachev, K., Glade, T., and Glatzel, S.: Exploring Slow-Moving Landslides and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Pre-Alpine Grassland: from Observations to Modelling, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16599, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16599, 2025.
The deformation of large-scale landslides poses a long-term threat to the protected objects in mountainous areas. Recent hazard records show that torrential are critical in triggering the deformation of large-scale landslides. This study investigates the relationship between groundwater variation and deformation kinematics of a large-scale landslide under different rainfall patterns using 3D FEM analysis. The case study of the Guanghua slope, located in Taoyuan, Taiwan, has been identified as an active large-scale landslide since 2018. A geomechanical model was established based on borehole and outcrop investigations. To correlate the rainfall pattern and groundwater change, the groundwater well data and the rainfall record from 2021 Typhoon In-Fa were used to assess representative groundwater unit hydrographs for the Guanghua slope. Then, different groundwater table scenarios associated with given rainfall return periods can be constructed as the hydraulic boundary condition. The surficial displacement data from GNSS observation and digital image analysis was used to calibrate the performance of 3D FEM models. The results show that the 3D FEM analysis well captured the deformation kinematics of the Guanghua slope, including movement direction and deformation displacement. The current study demonstrates a practical methodology to clarify the changes in the groundwater table and slope movement under different rainfall patterns for assessing the potential disaster scenarios of a large-scale landslide.
How to cite: Wen, C.-Y., Lin, C.-H., Chang, K.-Y., and Lin, M.-L.: Investigating the Groundwater Variation and Deformation Kinematics of Large-scale Landslide Under Different Rainfall Patterns Using 3D FEM Analysis, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4941, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4941, 2025.
Understanding thermal variation in rock masses is fundamental in determining rock deformation, which can lead to more significant movements such as rockfalls. Directly acquiring this information in the field is still complex and problematic, particularly in inaccessible areas. Therefore, correlations are still an effective tool to compensate for this limitation. Furthermore, recently, InfraRed Thermography (IRT) has proved capable of capturing the intrinsic properties of rocks.
Consequently, we implement a method to evaluate the porosity and the elastic moduli using relatively simple thermal data acquisition, capitalising on the different thermal cooling behaviour of different rock slope sectors. Thermograms were acquired at 10-minute intervals in laboratory and field settings, with correlations evaluated using a Cooling Rate Index (CRI). Concurrently, geotechnical parameters of core samples from these sectors were analysed to explore their mechanical differences. In these zones, in which mechanical behaviours are quite distinct, the experiments carried out in the TIR band have highlighted many discrepancies.
In this test case, the thermal time-lapse analysis revealed a correlation between physical properties and cooling rates in the Požáry field laboratory, reinforcing previous findings that cooling rates can distinguish between different rock textures. However, further validation is needed in various materials to generalise the based thermal parameter characterisation. By elucidating the temperature distribution and dynamics within the rock slope, this study may contribute to understanding rockfall dynamics in temperate climates, facilitating the development of effective rock mass characterisation strategies.
How to cite: Loche, M., Racek, O., Petružálek, M., Blahůt, J., and Scaringi, G.: Investigating Cooling Rate Indices: An InfraRed Thermography Study at the Požáry Field Laboratory, Czech Republic, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1216, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1216, 2025.
Rock slopes worldwide are subject to the influence of atmospheric temperature variations, which affect the evolution of stresses and strains on short and long-time scales. Climate change is expected to alter the thermal regimes of rock slopes, possibly exacerbating processes related to mechanical weathering and gravitational dynamics. Although the current thermal and mechanical conditions of a rock slope can be quantified using in-situ monitoring, forecasting their future evolution is still a great challenge. We have used in-situ thermal and joint displacement data to calibrate a semi-coupled thermo-mechanical model of the rock slope “Pastýřská stěna” (Děčín, Czechia). The calibrated model was then exposed to the expected temperature change over the next hundred years, analysing its stress-strain evolutive trend. The results show that gradual atmospheric warming leads to an irreversible acceleration of joint aperture trends, highlighting how future climate changes may affect the stability of rock slopes in temperate latitude environments.
How to cite: Racek, O., Morcioni, A., Blahut, J., and Apuani, T.: Rock slope evolution under climate change: the influence of atmospheric temperature change on the stability of the near-surface zone, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2843, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2843, 2025.
Landslide susceptibility analysis is a critical aspect of slope hazard assessment, requiring the understanding of the complex interactions between slope and atmosphere, in terms of geological, geotechnical and climatic factors. This study focuses on the evaluation of landslide susceptibility in Southern Italy, encompassing both rockfall events occurring along rocky cliffs in Melendugno (Adriatic coast, Apulia region) and a large earthflow mass in the Southern Apennines, respectively. In particular, this study is aimed at presenting preliminary results arising from advanced field digital surveys performed in the study areas. High-resolution thermal (7 cm) and RGB (3 cm) digital images were captured using a UAV-mounted camera during a survey conducted in July. Data processing and analysis were carried out using DJI thermal analysis tools, Agisoft Metashape and GIS software. The thermal surveys provided valuable insights into surface temperature variations within the study areas, in terms of thermal anomalies, which could potentially represent indicators of instability phenomena. Along the Melendugno rock cliff, low-temperature anomalies highlighted fractures and openings between calcarenite layers, while high-temperature zones are supposed to indicate weathered and degraded rock surfaces. As regards the Montaguto landslide, high-temperature regions indicate active fractures, whereas low-temperature areas correspond to water accumulation, potentially exacerbating slope instability. The temperature data obtained from the thermal surveys have been also validated through temperature and climatic data acquired via weather stations installed in the study areas. Future work will involve the collection of temporal data for creating multi-temporal maps and the application of numerical models to simulate the slope stress-strain response under varying environmental conditions. Combining thermal data and computational modelling, the study is aimed at providing critical insights into slope surface conditions and material degradation, enhancing stability analyses and aiding risk mitigation strategies. The findings are intended to underline the potential of thermal surveys in assessing landslide dynamics and advancing geohazard management.
How to cite: Niaz, J., Lollino, P., parise, M., Scaringi, G., and Cagnazzo, C.: Landslide susceptibility assessment by thermal surveys: case studies from southern Italy, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9123, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9123, 2025.
In the context of global warming, the impact of temperature on the geotechnical behavior of soil has recently garnered increasing attention. These phenomena significantly influence soils' compression and creep behavior, particularly clays, which are highly sensitive to thermal variations. To investigate soil thermal one-dimensional compression behavior, we developed a modification to a standard one-dimensional oedometer by incorporating a circulating heated water bath for precise temperature control and long-term stable high-temperature setting. We conducted detailed temperature calibrations of the cell for various temperatures to assess thermal losses and variations.
We conducted experimental investigations on Malaysian kaolin clay to examine the thermal effects on compression behavior, as indicated by the normal compression line (NCL) position, and on creep behavior, as reflected in changes to the secondary compression index (Cα). The experiments were performed over a temperature range of 20°C to 60°C and under constant temperature conditions. The findings obtained from the present experiments are compared with data from another, more advanced temperature-controlled oedometer cell.
Keywords: Compressibility, oedometer, thermal effect, secondary compression
How to cite: Nguyen Duy, M., Jerman, J., Najser, J., Mladý, T., Vavřich, L., and Scaringi, G.: Experimental investigation of thermal effect on compression and creep behavior of clays using modified oedometer, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13447, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13447, 2025.
Temperature variations, within the typical range experienced in temperate climates, have been shown to influence the shear strength of clay soils, with the effect depending on factors such as soil mineral composition, confining stress, and shear rate. Seasonal temperature fluctuations and long-term climatic trends propagate from the atmosphere into the subsurface, attenuating and lagging with depth. In the upper few meters, where landslides frequently occur, seasonal temperature variations of 2–5 °C are common.
We present field monitoring data from the Dubičná landslide, a slow-moving, clay-rich (primarily illitic) roto-translational slide in the Czech Republic. The landslide exhibits displacement rates of a few millimetres per year and displays a seasonal pattern not entirely attributable to precipitation trends. Using ring-shear experiments on shear-zone samples, we investigated the influence of temperature on the residual shear strength under different conditions. A linear relationship between temperature and shear strength was identified, indicating mild strengthening at higher temperatures under low shear rates.
Slope stability analyses, incorporating air and subsurface temperature data, were performed for current temperature conditions and future projections under climate change scenarios. The results indicate that temperature effects on the factor of safety are modest, with a slight stabilising influence due to thermal strengthening. However, fully understanding the role of temperature in the stability of clay slopes requires further experiments and advanced modelling to account for the complexities of thermo-hydro-mechanical coupling and atmosphere-ground interactions.
How to cite: Kadlicek, T., Jerman, J., Prasad Dhakal, O., Loche, M., Mladý, T., Nguyen Duy, M., Chowdepalli, B., Roháč, J., and Scaringi, G.: Stability analysis of the Dubičná landslide (Czech Republic) considering the effect of temperature on the available shear resistance, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17966, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17966, 2025.
