Beyond their immediate environmental impact, landslides pose significant social and economic challenges for vulnerable communities. These highly dynamic natural hazards are mostly triggered by rainfall in many regions worldwide, making it crucial to understand the relationship between precipitation and landslide occurrence. This understanding is key to enhancing the accuracy and reliability of systems that assess and mitigate landslide risks.

To explore this relationship, this study employs a framework similar to that of Berenguer et al. (2015) and Palau et al. (2020) for real-time application. The system integrates landslide susceptibility information with precipitation inputs to generate maps with a qualitative classification of the warning level in four classes. For this analysis, this system combines 3-hourly accumulated precipitation simulations from the EURO-CORDEX dataset (with a resolution of 12.5 km x 12.5 km) and the European Landslide Susceptibility Map (200 m x 200 m), developed by Wilde et al. (2018) and Günther et al. (2014). By merging the fine spatial resolution of the susceptibility dataset with the temporal resolution of precipitation data, the system provides a dynamic representation of landslide hazards that accounts for local susceptibility and precipitation variability.

The framework is designed for application at various scales, from the European level to specific regions. For this study, Catalonia (NE Spain) is the focus area due to the availability of a landslide inventory, which allows for initial validation of the system's preliminary results. Although the inventory has some limitations—such as incompleteness and biases towards events near transportation networks and urban areas—it offers valuable data for validating the framework and identifying its strengths and weaknesses. A historical precipitation dataset (1976–2005) serves as input for simulating past landslide hazards, laying the groundwork for analyzing long-term trends. By comparing simulated precipitation-induced landslides with reported events, insights into the relationship between precipitation patterns and landslide occurrences.

To assess future risks, climate projections from 2011 to 2100 across various timeframes and scenarios are analyzed. Temporal variations in precipitation are examined on monthly and seasonal scales to understand how shifting precipitation patterns may affect landslide-prone conditions in specific regions. This methodology can be improved by incorporating socio-economic risk indicators, such as population density, infrastructure vulnerability, and the economic value of exposed assets. This integration helps transition the focus from hazard assessment to risk analysis, reflecting the potential severity of consequences. Such analysis could help in developing proactive risk management strategies, providing valuable insights into the future dynamics of landslide hazards under changing climatic scenarios.

How to cite: Tapia Hurtado, L. A., Berenguer, M., Park, S., and Sempere-Torres, D.: Climate Assessment of rainfall-induced Landslide Hazard and Risk: Assessing Past Simulations and Future Projections, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11058, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11058, 2025.

Anthropogenic climate change is rapidly altering high mountain environments, including changing the frequency, dynamic behavior, location, and magnitude of alpine mass movements. In this project, we gathered literture (∼1995 to 2024, 335 studies) that have leveraged observational records from the European Alps and review (a) to what degree changes in the frequency, magnitude, dynamic behavior, or location of alpine mass movements can be detected in observational records, and (b) whether detected changes be attributed to climate change and are clear enough to improve hazard management at regional scales. We focused our analysis on the mass movements that are most common in the European Alps, namely rockfall, rock avalanches, debris flows, ice and snow avalanches. We found that the clearest climate-controlled trends are (i) an increased rockfall frequency in high-alpine areas (due to higher temperatures), (ii) fewer and smaller snow avalanches due to scarcer snow conditions in low- and subalpine areas, and (iii) a shift towards avalanches with more wet snow. There is (iv) a clear increase in debris-flow triggering precipitation, but this increase is only partly reflected in debris-flow activity. The trends for (v) ice avalanches are spatially very variable without a clear direction. Quantifying the impact of climate change on these mass movements remains difficult in part due to the complexities of the natural system, but also because of limitations in the available datasets, confounding effects and the limits of existing statistical processing techniques. 

How to cite: Jacquemart, M., Weber, S., Chiarle, M., Chmiel, M., Cicoira, A., Corona, C., Eckert, N., Gaume, J., Giacona, F., Hirschberg, J., Kaitna, R., Magnin, F., Mayer, S., Moos, C., Stoffel, M., and van Herwijnen, A.: Detecting the impact of climate change on alpine mass movements in observational records from the European Alps, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16339, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16339, 2025.

The evolution of future rainfall regime (intensity, frequency, season) induced by climate change is likely to change the exposure of infrastructure and housing to the risks of flooding, avalanches and landslides. Several studies indicate that the frequency of landslide occurrence should increase due to climate change. In this context, we applied a statistical analysis of future changes in rainfall conditions triggering landslides in South Alps, France.

In this study, we start from rainfall thresholds under current climate conditions to trigger landslide that have been determined, on the basis of an inventory of recent landslides. Different criteria of landslide triggers are studied, including cumulative rainfall of events and the duration of the events. We then use an ensemble of 17 bias-corrected high-resolution regional climate projections to calculate these criteria for future climate change scenarios, and we compare their evolution with contemporary climate conditions.

The comparison is based on the number of meteorological events exceeding current rainfall threshold, the evolution of cumulative rainfall of extreme events, as well as their duration. This analysis is carried out on a departmental scale, making it possible to quantify potential future variations according to different climatic contexts (Mediterranean and mountainous context).

How to cite: Bernardie, S., Thieblemont, R., and Le Cozannet, G.: Climate change influence on future landslides in South Alps, France : an analysis of the future meteorological events that trigger landslides, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11757, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11757, 2025.

Landslide activity is expected to increase as climate change reduces mountain slope stability. High-Arctic regions like Svalbard are critical for studying slope dynamics in a changing climate, especially due to arctic amplification effects. Despite the significance of Arctic regions for climate research, empirical evidence in these regions is often lacking due to the absence of long-term, high-resolution terrain data necessary to assess the impact of meteorological conditions on landscapes severely affected by climate change. Bridging this gap is vital for comprehending the intricate relationships between meteorological factors and landslide development in Arctic regions.

This study presents a unique high-resolution on-site dataset from a high-Arctic glacier basin, collected over a 10-year period. Using terrestrial laser-scanning and an autonomous camera network, we investigated the impact of meteorological conditions on the trigger mechanisms of translational debris slides and debris flows in the Austre Lovénbreen glacier basin (Svalbard, Norway).

Translational debris slides accounted for approximately 96% (N = 147) of the total sediment flux observed, with debris flows (N = 21) as a secondary agent. Debris slide activity significantly increased between 2011 and 2021. Heavy rainfall events primarily influenced the frequency and magnitude of debris slides during the hydrological summer, while the duration and intensity of the thawing period were the main controls for their initiation. On the opposite, the impact of winter temperatures or snow parameters was limited. Furthermore, a 2-year return period for large debris flows was identified, representing an increase by a factor of 2.5 to 5 compared to previous estimates for Svalbard and northern Scandinavia in the last decades.

In conclusion, this study highlights the significant impact of meteorological factors on the frequency and magnitude of landslides in high-Arctic glacier basins, providing insights into how climate change controls landslide dynamics in Arctic environments. The expected continuous rise in temperatures and increased heavy rainfall events are likely to further facilitate landslide activity in the Arctic.

Thus, this study shows that long-term observatories like the Austre Lovénbreen glacier are irreplaceable for future research unraveling the impact of climate change on landslide dynamics and that the present climate alterations in the Arctic may provide insights also relevant for other regions.

How to cite: Kuschel, E., Tolle, F., Klaus, V., Laa, U., Prokop, A., Friedt, J.-M., Bernard, E., and Zangerl, C.: Meteorological factors control landslide phenomena in a high-Arctic glacier basin (Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17821, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17821, 2025.

The deformation of large-scale landslides poses a long-term threat to the protected objects in mountainous areas. Recent hazard records show that torrential are critical in triggering the deformation of large-scale landslides. This study investigates the relationship between groundwater variation and deformation kinematics of a large-scale landslide under different rainfall patterns using 3D FEM analysis. The case study of the  Guanghua slope, located in Taoyuan, Taiwan, has been identified as an active large-scale landslide since 2018. A geomechanical model was established based on borehole and outcrop investigations. To correlate the rainfall pattern and groundwater change, the groundwater well data and the rainfall record from 2021 Typhoon In-Fa were used to assess representative groundwater unit hydrographs for the Guanghua slope. Then, different groundwater table scenarios associated with given rainfall return periods can be constructed as the hydraulic boundary condition. The surficial displacement data from GNSS observation and digital image analysis was used to calibrate the performance of 3D FEM models. The results show that the 3D FEM analysis well captured the deformation kinematics of the Guanghua slope, including movement direction and deformation displacement. The current study demonstrates a practical methodology to clarify the changes in the groundwater table and slope movement under different rainfall patterns for assessing the potential disaster scenarios of a large-scale landslide.

How to cite: Wen, C.-Y., Lin, C.-H., Chang, K.-Y., and Lin, M.-L.: Investigating the Groundwater Variation and Deformation Kinematics of Large-scale Landslide Under Different Rainfall Patterns Using 3D FEM Analysis, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4941, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4941, 2025.

Landslide susceptibility analysis is a critical aspect of slope hazard assessment, requiring the understanding of the complex interactions between slope and atmosphere, in terms of geological, geotechnical and climatic factors. This study focuses on the evaluation of landslide susceptibility in Southern Italy, encompassing both rockfall events occurring along rocky cliffs in Melendugno (Adriatic coast, Apulia region) and a large earthflow mass in the Southern Apennines, respectively. In particular, this study is aimed at presenting preliminary results arising from advanced field digital surveys performed in the study areas. High-resolution thermal (7 cm) and RGB (3 cm) digital images were captured using a UAV-mounted camera during a survey conducted in July. Data processing and analysis were carried out using DJI thermal analysis tools, Agisoft Metashape and GIS software. The thermal surveys provided valuable insights into surface temperature variations within the study areas, in terms of thermal anomalies, which could potentially represent indicators of instability phenomena. Along the Melendugno rock cliff, low-temperature anomalies highlighted fractures and openings between calcarenite layers, while high-temperature zones are supposed to indicate weathered and degraded rock surfaces. As regards the Montaguto landslide, high-temperature regions indicate active fractures, whereas low-temperature areas correspond to water accumulation, potentially exacerbating slope instability. The temperature data obtained from the thermal surveys have been also validated through temperature and climatic data acquired via weather stations installed in the study areas. Future work will involve the collection of temporal data for creating multi-temporal maps and the application of numerical models to simulate the slope stress-strain response under varying environmental conditions.  Combining thermal data and computational modelling, the study is aimed at providing critical insights into slope surface conditions and material degradation, enhancing stability analyses and aiding risk mitigation strategies. The findings are intended to underline the potential of thermal surveys in assessing landslide dynamics and advancing geohazard management.

How to cite: Niaz, J., Lollino, P., parise, M., Scaringi, G., and Cagnazzo, C.: Landslide susceptibility assessment by thermal surveys: case studies  from southern Italy, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9123, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9123, 2025.

In the context of global warming, the impact of temperature on the geotechnical behavior of soil has recently garnered increasing attention. These phenomena significantly influence soils' compression and creep behavior, particularly clays, which are highly sensitive to thermal variations. To investigate soil thermal one-dimensional compression behavior, we developed a modification to a standard one-dimensional oedometer by incorporating a circulating heated water bath for precise temperature control and long-term stable high-temperature setting. We conducted detailed temperature calibrations of the cell for various temperatures to assess thermal losses and variations.

We conducted experimental investigations on Malaysian kaolin clay to examine the thermal effects on compression behavior, as indicated by the normal compression line (NCL) position, and on creep behavior, as reflected in changes to the secondary compression index (C_α). The experiments were performed over a temperature range of 20°C to 60°C and under constant temperature conditions. The findings obtained from the present experiments are compared with data from another, more advanced temperature-controlled oedometer cell.

Keywords: Compressibility, oedometer, thermal effect, secondary compression

How to cite: Nguyen Duy, M., Jerman, J., Najser, J., Mladý, T., Vavřich, L., and Scaringi, G.: Experimental investigation of thermal effect on compression and creep behavior of clays using modified oedometer, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13447, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13447, 2025.

Temperature variations, within the typical range experienced in temperate climates, have been shown to influence the shear strength of clay soils, with the effect depending on factors such as soil mineral composition, confining stress, and shear rate. Seasonal temperature fluctuations and long-term climatic trends propagate from the atmosphere into the subsurface, attenuating and lagging with depth. In the upper few meters, where landslides frequently occur, seasonal temperature variations of 2–5 °C are common.

We present field monitoring data from the Dubičná landslide, a slow-moving, clay-rich (primarily illitic) roto-translational slide in the Czech Republic. The landslide exhibits displacement rates of a few millimetres per year and displays a seasonal pattern not entirely attributable to precipitation trends. Using ring-shear experiments on shear-zone samples, we investigated the influence of temperature on the residual shear strength under different conditions. A linear relationship between temperature and shear strength was identified, indicating mild strengthening at higher temperatures under low shear rates.

Slope stability analyses, incorporating air and subsurface temperature data, were performed for current temperature conditions and future projections under climate change scenarios. The results indicate that temperature effects on the factor of safety are modest, with a slight stabilising influence due to thermal strengthening. However, fully understanding the role of temperature in the stability of clay slopes requires further experiments and advanced modelling to account for the complexities of thermo-hydro-mechanical coupling and atmosphere-ground interactions.

How to cite: Kadlicek, T., Jerman, J., Prasad Dhakal, O., Loche, M., Mladý, T., Nguyen Duy, M., Chowdepalli, B., Roháč, J., and Scaringi, G.: Stability analysis of the Dubičná landslide (Czech Republic) considering the effect of temperature on the available shear resistance, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17966, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17966, 2025.