Turbulence diagnostics of scale-by-scale accuracy of solar wind forecasts

The non-linear dynamics of the solar wind cover multiple decades of scales. These scales are not independent and are linked by turbulent processes. For instance, the energy will cascade from the largest scales determined by the dynamic and structure of the corona, to the smallest where kinetic dissipation and heating of the plasma occur. Mesoscale structures of size superior to the minute can be induced or affected by the turbulent cascade of energy or can generate a cascade. They have the right size to interact quasi-stationarily with the magnetosphere. However, are they well reproduced in space weather forecasts? We question the scale-by-scale accuracy of solar wind forecasts using turbulent-state diagnostics. These forecasts are obtained from the ensemble-analogue methodology applied to L1 measurements. We will discuss the implications of our results for space weather forecasting.