Seismic Hazard Implications on the East Anatolian Fault following the October 16, 2024 Mw6.0 Malatya Earthquake

The East Anatolian Fault Zone (EAFZ), a 580-kilometer-long transform plate boundary within the Anatolia-Arabia-Africa triple junction system, has been the site of several destructive earthquakes. This includes the February 2023 Mw7.8 and Mw7.5 Kahramanmaraş earthquake doublets, which occurred as part of a recent seismic sequence. The aftershock sequence indicates that the first earthquake on the Pazarcık fault segment triggered the second earthquake on the Sürgü Fault, located approximately 100 km north of the initial epicenter. Diffuse deformation in the region is evident by part of this latest earthquake sequence, nucleated on the northern splay of the main EAFZ. These two main shocks were subsequently followed by strong aftershocks in the region, including the October 16, 2024 Mw6.0 Malatya Earthquake. Given the region's seismic potential, complex deformational behavior evident from recent earthquake doublets, and distribution of post-seismic deformation following the latest activity, a proper seismic hazard assessment that incorporates seismological and geodetic constraints is of great importance in the region. The present work endeavors to provide a quantitative discussion on the seismic hazard potential in the EAFZ, with a particular focus on the Malatya region. To achieve this aim we utilize a multi-scale data set comprising precise aftershock distribution around Malatya, 3D Coulomb stress change pattern, spatio-temporal b-value distribution, the InSAR-based surface deformation of the recent Malatya earthquake and 3-D variation of seismic P- and S-wave speeds in and around broken fault segments in the region.