- 1Sapienza University of Rome, Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile Edile e Ambientale , Italy (lorenza.cappellato@uniroma1.it)
- 2Politecnico di Milano, Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile e Ambientale , Italy (davidedanilo.chiarelli@polimi.it)
The agricultural sector is particularly affected by drought events due to its direct dependency on precipitation
and evapotranspiration. Droughts represent the foremost threat to food security, leading to reduced crop yields
and, in severe cases, complete crop failure. A comprehensive understanding of drought is therefore essential
for effective risk management and the strategic planning of water resource conservation in both the short and
long term. Within the framework of the CASTLE project, this research combines the Standardized
Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at multiple time scales, computed from 1951 to 2024, with crop
harvest data to identify Italy’s most drought-exposed agricultural hotspots. By integrating these datasets, the
study establishes a foundation for the development of targeted adaptation strategies for water management in
the agricultural sector. We conducted an initial assessment of agricultural drought across Italy using the SPEI
signal at a 6-month timescale, which highlights a significant increase in the number, duration, and intensity of
drought events, indicating progressively drought-prone conditions. Building on this, we perform a crop
specific SPEI analysis over the 74-year observation period, identifying the years in which drought conditions
coincided with the harvest season. The findings reveal a sharp expansion in the overall extent of drought
affected regions over the past two decades, underscoring not only an intensification and increased frequency
of drought events but also a widening geographic impact. These findings are synthesized into the novel
“PRIME Index,” which quantifies agricultural drought susceptibility by considering both crop area extent and
crop economic value. This index enables the precise identification of regions at the highest risk of agricultural
drought, providing a powerful tool for prioritizing interventions and safeguarding agricultural production in
Italy.
How to cite: Cappellato, L., Moccia, B., Ridolfi, E., Chiarelli, D. D., Russo, F., Napolitano, F., and Rulli, M. C.: The PRIME Index: Prioritization of cultivated Regions IMpacted by drought in agriculturE , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12641, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12641, 2025.
