Global climate change can alter precipitation patterns and temperatures, impacting regional hydrologic cycles and river flows, potentially leading to supply deficits during peak use periods. Future water use patterns may shift due to increased demand for food and energy production driven by population growth. Anthropogenic activities, such as agriculture and power generation, can degrade water quality, affecting its availability for various uses. This study evaluates the impacts of climate change and water demand on water availability in the Kaskaskia River watershed, Illinois, USA. The Kaskaskia River, the second largest river in Illinois, flows southwest to its confluence with the Mississippi River. Lake Shelbyville and Carlyle Lake, the two principal reservoirs on the mainstem of the Kaskaskia River, serve as primary sources of water supply in the region. Both reservoirs, federally owned, are operated and managed by the United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) to meet water demand in the watershed, including water supply, flood control, navigation, and recreational needs. The land use of the Kaskaskia River watershed is primarily agricultural, with row crops covering more than 60 percent of the area. Two-thirds of the watershed soil has moderately low infiltration capacity. The region receives an average annual precipitation of 1,041 millimeters. A detailed hydrologic model of the Kaskaskia River watershed was developed, incorporating modifications to watershed process algorithms and implementing a daily target release method for the reservoirs, which significantly improved storage and outflow simulations. The modeling process involved developing four subwatershed models with HUC12 as their subbasins and further subdividing subbasins into hydrologic response units (HRUs) to enhance simulation granularity. The model also incorporated Lake Shelbyville and Carlyle Lake, along with point sources and water withdrawals. Calibration and validation across the models and reservoirs, involving sensitivity analysis and automatic calibration, yielded good performance metrics. The model accurately simulated streamflow and reservoir dynamics, providing reliable predictions. The calibrated models were integrated into a single Kaskaskia River watershed model, which was then applied to simulate future water use and climate scenarios, offering insights into potential hydrologic impacts. The findings revealed that climate change significantly impacts river flows and reservoir storages, while water use has minimal effects. Under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, minimum storage volumes of both reservoirs are projected to decrease over the next 25 and 50 years, while maximum storage volumes are expected to increase. Future water yields of both reservoirs are anticipated to exceed current yields, underscoring the need for sustainable water resource management amidst climate variability and changing demands. The study highlights the importance of adaptive water resource management to mitigate climate change impacts and ensure long-term sustainability.

How to cite: Getahun, E.: Future Water Availability: Impacts of Climate Change and Water Demand, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1659, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1659, 2025.

The extreme hydrological events that occurred in recent years seriously impacted the water resource distribution in Taiwan. Reducing agricultural water is a compromised policy in competition with domestic and industrial water demand. However, Long-term water supply reduction or fallowing will irreversibly impair the agriculture industry. Our research aims to develop a model to evaluate the policy for agricultural water distribution. The network flow programming is the skeleton of our model. This optimization model has two features: firstly, the hydrological data is adopted in terms of time series function instead of constants of the specific time window; secondly, the hydrological data are transformed from the time domain to the frequency domain. This novel model exhibits practical significance for facilitating water agricultural water resources management and providing decision-support information for determining cropping policy. 

How to cite: Lee, C.-Y. and Hu, M.-C.: Optimizing Agricultural Water Distribution with Network Flow Model, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1685, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1685, 2025.

In the Mediterranean region, the agricultural sector represents a major water resource consumer and, at the same time, a crucial economic pillar. Future climatic changes are expected to impact agricultural systems, especially through extreme weather events such as droughts and floods, with relevant consequences on the water resource management, especially in semi-arid regions. In this context, understanding the potential variability of durum wheat productivity and irrigation impact on water resources is crucial to ensure sustainable development and efficient water management. This study focuses on durum wheat cultivation in Sardinia (Italy), a key C3 crop in the Mediterranean context, thanks to the good nutritional composition, with a high carbohydrate and protein content. In Sardinia durum wheat is currently grown under rainfed conditions and therefore vulnerable to climatic changes. With the aim to estimate the crop productivity, the AquaCrop-OpenSource model was used, explicitly taking into account the local conditions of climate, soil, sowing time, field management and crop properties. To assess the impact of climate change on Sardinia’s durum wheat productivity, simulations of the attainable yield for historical (1950 -2023) and near future conditions (2024 -2050) were conducted evaluating seven different climatic models (CMCC CM VHR4, EC Earth3P HR, FGOALS f3 H, HiRAM SIT HR, MPI ESM1 2, MRI AGCM3 2 S, NICAM16 8S), that follow the High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project protocol. In the context of a Water-Food nexus analysis, the volume of water needed for irrigation to uphold current durum wheat yields as well as to maximise productivity was estimated, evaluating the potential impact on Sardinian water resources management system. Simulation results indicate a general increase in yields in the future accompanied by a concomitant reduction in growing period duration and a potential drawback in grain quality; at the same time, it is not rare the occurrence of low or zero productivity triggered by winter droughts or summer heat waves. Additionally, the investigation of the impact of individual projected changes in temperature, precipitation and CO₂-concentration reveals that rising CO₂ levels exert the overall highest influence on the enhanced durum wheat productivity. 

How to cite: Grosse-Heilmann, M., Cristiano, E., Pusceddu, G., Marrocu, M., Viola, F., and Deidda, R.: Assessing the Effects of Climate Change on Durum Wheat Yields in Mediterranean Regions: A Water-Food Nexus Perspective, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4108, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4108, 2025.

The acceleration of the climate crisis poses significant and multilayered challenges to Mediterranean societies, whose complex socio-economic structure, ecological stability, and cultural heritage, are increasingly affected by expanding climatic perturbations (see e.g. Linares et al., 2020, and Aurelle et al., 2022).Due to its socio-geographic heterogeneity, Greece offers a highly compelling case for an investigation of social resilience and adaptive capacity in response to climate change. Along these lines, in this study we conduct a large-scale survey to explore the adaptation potential of Greek society, aiming to provide insights concerning community perspectives and social dynamics.

Thus far, the survey, is administered across a variety of urban, rural, and insular contexts, and encompasses a minimum of 150 responses. The proposed framework interrogates key aspects of adaptive capacity, including (but not limited to): a) cognitive awareness of climate-related risks, b) direct experiences of crisis-induced disruptions, c) willingness as well as readiness to adopt sustainable practices, and d) evaluative perspectives on grassroots-level interventions. Although this preliminary analysis indicates a widespread understanding of the exposure to climatic hazards, we identify significant regional disparities that highlight urban-rural dichotomies, as well as substantial socio-economic constraints toward proactive adaptation strategies. Furthermore, the interplay of cultural and historical paradigms emerges as a major factor that shapes adaptation pathways.

The findings of this effort seek to provide the foundation for identifying systemic barriers and leveraging emerging opportunities to enhance societal resilience to the climate crisis in Greece. Finally, this work underscores the critical importance of developing context-specific strategies that address localized hydrological challenges and socio-economic barriers, while integrating community-driven solutions to enhance adaptive resilience against climate risks.

References

Linares, C., Díaz, J., Negev, M., Martínez, G.S., Debono, R., Paz, S. (2020) Impacts of climate change on the public health of the Mediterranean Basin population - Current situation, projections, preparedness and adaptation, Environmental Research, 182, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2019.109107

Aurelle, D., Thomas, S., Albert, C., Bally, M., Bondeau, A., Boudouresque,C., Cahill, A. E., Carlotti, F., Chenuil, A., Cramer, W., Davi, H., DeJode, A., Ereskovsky, A., Farnet, A., Fernandez, C., Gauquelin, T.,Mirleau, P., Monnet, A., Prévosto, B., … Fady, B. (2022) Biodiversity,climate change, and adaptation in the Mediterranean. Ecosphere, 13(4): e3915. https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.3915

How to cite: Perdios, A., Ntona, M. M., Emmanouil, S., Kritidou, E., Aspioti, A., Georgaki, M. N., Papailiopoulou, M., and Serafeim, A. V.: Adapting to the Escalating Climate Crisis in the Mediterranean Region: The case of Greece, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9003, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9003, 2025.

How to cite: Tsai, Y.-J. and Yu, H.-L.: Mapping and investigating regional groundwater–surface water dynamics using an integrated hydrologic model of the Kaoping River watershed, Taiwan, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12403, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12403, 2025.

The agricultural sector is particularly affected by drought events due to its direct dependency on precipitation 
and evapotranspiration. Droughts represent the foremost threat to food security, leading to reduced crop yields 
and, in severe cases, complete crop failure. A comprehensive understanding of drought is therefore essential 
for effective risk management and the strategic planning of water resource conservation in both the short and 
long term. Within the framework of the CASTLE project, this research combines the Standardized 
Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at multiple time scales, computed from 1951 to 2024, with crop 
harvest data to identify Italy’s most drought-exposed agricultural hotspots. By integrating these datasets, the 
study establishes a foundation for the development of targeted adaptation strategies for water management in 
the agricultural sector. We conducted an initial assessment of agricultural drought across Italy using the SPEI 
signal at a 6-month timescale, which highlights a significant increase in the number, duration, and intensity of 
drought events, indicating progressively drought-prone conditions. Building on this, we perform a crop
specific SPEI analysis over the 74-year observation period, identifying the years in which drought conditions 
coincided with the harvest season. The findings reveal a sharp expansion in the overall extent of drought
affected regions over the past two decades, underscoring not only an intensification and increased frequency 
of drought events but also a widening geographic impact. These findings are synthesized into the novel 
“PRIME Index,” which quantifies agricultural drought susceptibility by considering both crop area extent and 
crop economic value. This index enables the precise identification of regions at the highest risk of agricultural 
drought, providing a powerful tool for prioritizing interventions and safeguarding agricultural production in 
Italy.

How to cite: Cappellato, L., Moccia, B., Ridolfi, E., Chiarelli, D. D., Russo, F., Napolitano, F., and Rulli, M. C.: The PRIME Index: Prioritization of cultivated Regions IMpacted by drought in agriculturE , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12641, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12641, 2025.

Organic agriculture has gained increasing recognition in recent years for its benefits to natural ecosystems and humanity, particularly its influence on water resource utilization and environmental conservation. Tea, a key economic crop in Pinglin, Taiwan, depends heavily on precipitation and soil moisture for its growth. However, recent drought conditions in Taiwan have significantly challenged tea cultivation and production. Therefore, understanding how different agricultural management practices affect the vadose zone water balance is essential for improving the resilience of tea fields to drought.

Soil moisture in organic tea fields decreases more rapidly than in conventional ones after heavy rainfall. In this study, we utilized long-term in situ observations from two neighboring tea fields in Pinglin—one under conventional management and the other organic-certified—along with data on hydraulic and climatic variables (e.g., rainfall, soil water content, evapotranspiration, and soil temperature). Using these in situ data and collected soil samples, we analyzed and compared the hydraulic properties of the two fields. The HYDRUS-1D model was applied to simulate water dynamics, enabling us to characterize infiltration and surface runoff and compare the impacts of different farming practices on tea field hydrology. Additionally, we employed the Convergent Cross Mapping (CCM) method to investigate the nonlinear dynamical system (NDS) relationships among water balance variables in the tea fields (e.g., rainfall, evapotranspiration, soil water content). This approach allowed us to understand the causal relationships between soil moisture and other variables and to identify the time lag between environmental conditions and the onset of drought.

In Pinglin, most tea fields depend on rain-fed irrigation. Findings from this research can support the development of irrigation plans to enhance drought resilience in tea production and offer more comprehensive recommendations for sustainable agricultural practices.

How to cite: Chang, Y.-C., Wang, S.-H., Juang, J.-Y., and Hsu, S.-Y.: Comparing Soil Water Dynamics in Organic and Conventional Tea Fields Using  Numerical Modeling and Non-linear Information Theory, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14929, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14929, 2025.

Rice paddies are one of the major sources of methane emissions among greenhouse gases. Traditional conventional irrigation practices keep paddy fields flooded for extended periods, creating anaerobic soil conditions that promote significant methane emissions. In recent years, with the intensification of climate change, the global challenge of water resource management has become increasingly prominent. Alternate Wetting and Drying (AWD) has been recognized as a sustainable irrigation practice that not only reduces water usage but also decreases methane emissions. However, while conserving water, AWD may alter water infiltration patterns in fields, potentially affecting groundwater recharge. This study investigates the effects of AWD and conventional irrigation on methane emissions and groundwater dynamics in organic paddy fields located at the Taoyuan District Agricultural Research and Extension Station in Taiwan. The research was conducted in two organic experimental fields. Methane emissions were measured using a gas analyzer, while tensiometers, soil moisture sensors, and electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) devices were installed in the AWD field to monitor soil moisture dynamics. Observation wells equipped with water level loggers were also set up near the fields to collect groundwater level data. The results showed that AWD significantly reduced methane emissions compared to conventional irrigation, confirming that agricultural water-saving practices can effectively mitigate methane emissions. Furthermore, through the analysis of groundwater levels in relation to irrigation and rainfall data, the study found that both irrigation and rainfall had a notable impact on groundwater recharge.

How to cite: Liao, Y.-C., Tsai, Y.-Z., Yang, Z.-W., and Hsu, S.-Y.: The Impact of Alternate Wetting and Drying (AWD) on Methane Emissions and Groundwater Recharge in Organic Paddy Fields, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14993, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14993, 2025.

Waterborne diseases remain a significant cause of illness and mortality in both developing and developed countries. Contaminated water, especially water containing fecal matter, serves as a reservoir for various pathogens. However, the identification and monitoring of all pathogens in water are often hindered by limitations in time, resources, and the complex ecology of microbial communities. To overcome these challenges, indicator bacteria are widely used as proxies to assess the presence of pathogenic bacteria and fecal contamination in water. Among these indicators, enterococci, commonly found in the intestinal microflora of humans and animals, are extensively used due to their abundance in contaminated water. Their presence serves as an effective marker for water quality assessment. In this study, we developed a simple, rapid, and cost-effective lateral flow assay (LFA) for detecting enterococci in environmental water samples. The LFA utilizes antibody-antigen interactions between gold nanoparticle-conjugated Enterococcus antibodies and enterococci, enabling detection within minutes. The assay's specificity was validated by distinguishing enterococci in the presence of Escherichia coli and Shigella sonnei. Additionally, the LFA demonstrated reliable detection of enterococci in both freshwater and seawater samples, achieving performance comparable to conventional viable plate counting methods. These findings suggest that the LFA is a rapid, user-friendly, and cost-effective tool for on-site and real-time monitoring of enterococci in environmental waters, providing a valuable method for enhancing water quality surveillance and public health protection.

How to cite: Chang, Y. and Lee, E.-H.: A rapid method for detecting enterococci in real water samples, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16053, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16053, 2025.

Climate change and water scarcity are intertwined natural and humanitarian crises, disproportionately affecting vulnerable populations. By 2040, one in four children globally will face severe water scarcity, exposing them to water-borne diseases. Many, particularly girls and young women in resource-limited regions, are forced to abandon education and career opportunities to fetch water due to traditional gender roles. As climate change reduces surface water availability, groundwater demand is projected to rise significantly over the next 30 years.

We will present our research framework to investigate how slow-onset climate events, such as prolonged droughts, impact child poverty - characterised as malnutrition and educational deprivation - through groundwater availability by integrating theories, data, and methods in child development, water security, climate change, and sustainable development . The aim is to develop solutions to improve resilience, adaptation strategies and public services for vulnerable children by answering three important questions:

• Where are groundwater-dependent regions globally, continentally, and regionally, and what climate factors drive uncertainty in groundwater availability?
• How does groundwater scarcity affect child poverty in semi-arid and arid developing regions?
• Why do regions with comparable climate hazards and groundwater availability exhibit different levels of child poverty, and what lessons can be shared?

How to cite: Fung, F., Zhang, M., and Rahman, M.: Investigating the resilience of vulnerable children to future groundwater scarcity, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18685, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18685, 2025.

ISO 14046:2014 is the standard for measuring the Water Footprint (WF) of products, processes, and organizations following a life cycle approach. The Available Water Remaining (AWARE) is an ISO 14046 compliant characterization model to measure WF characterization factors (Cf) at national and sub-national levels. Despite being established on international consensus AWARE is based on the use of global water balance models and does not incorporate knowledge on hydrological dynamics at high spatial resolution. Thus, the resulting WF values may be inaccurate for local context studies. This work proposes an approach to estimate local Cfs with a sub-administration granularity, using Tuscany Region (Italy) as a case study. Hydrological information (i.e. water availability) was retrieved from the Italian national water balance model (BIGBANG 7.0), and water consumption time-series (2012-2021) were obtained at the municipality level from regional databases. Results indicate that the yearly average Cf (~60 m³_{world eq} / m³_i) is ~80% higher than the corresponding AWARE’s Cf. High spatial and temporal variability are observed, with monthly standard deviation ranging from 0 to 52 m³_{world eq} / m³_i. The largest variability occurs in winter when the Cfs are the lowest. During summer, maximum Cf values measured show low variability due to the constant high pressure on water resources over the years. The Northwest of Tuscany, with more humid climate, presents the lowest value of Cf. In contrast, the agricultural areas result in the highest Cf due to the high-water demand for irrigation and the generally low precipitation volumes. The proposed approach can increase the reliability of WF assessments and can be extended to the entire Italian territory and other territories in the world.

This study was carried out within the Agritech National Research Center and received funding from the European Union Next-Generation EU (PI-ANO NAZIONALE DI RIPRESA E RESILIENZA (PNRR) – MISSIONE 4 COMPONENTE 2, INVESTIMENTO 1.4 – D.D.1032 17/06/2022, CN00000022). This abstract reflects only the authors’ views and opinions, neither the European Union nor the European Commission can be considered responsible for them.

How to cite: Renzi, N., Rugani, B., Pacetti, T., Penna, D., Caporali, E., Bresci, E., and Castelli, G.: An advanced hydrological method for the characterization of Life Cycle Water Footprint at the local scale, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-361, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-361, 2025.

Abstract:

As all water supply systems are inherently energy-intensive, the operational efficiency of the pumping infrastructure significantly affects their environmental and economic performance. Suboptimal pump configurations often result in excessive energy consumption, leading to noteworthy environmental degradation through increased carbon emissions as well as unnecessary economic burden. The current work aims to quantify both the environmental footprint as well as the economic implications associated with non-optimal pump operations.

The pumping efficiency is assessed via a large-scale, real-world application to the water distribution network of the city of Patras, utilizing energy consumption as well as energy billing data associated with operation of pumps. To estimate the total CO₂ emissions, we use data acquired from the Greek Public Power Corporation (see PPC 2024a and 2024b) and the Independent Power Transmission Operator (see IPTO, 2023), during the 6-month high water consumption period from May 2023 – October 2023 (see Serafeim et al., 2024). The integrated approach allows for environmental impact assessment, under the current pump settings, and their possible improvements through optimization.

The results highlight that suboptimal pump configurations may lead to increased energy consumption and associated CO₂ emissions (up to 35%) relative to the optimal configurations. The current findings underscore the importance of precise configuration of pump systems in order to minimize their environmental impact as a direct result of deviations from the optimal settings.

We conclude that the operational efficiency of pumping systems in water distribution networks provides a critical perspective on environmental sustainability and economic resilience. The results of this work underscore the effectiveness of efficiency-oriented interventions within the water supply infrastructure towards mitigating energy consumption, carbon emissions, and operational costs, leading to more sustainable water resources planning management.

References:

Independent Power Transmission Operator (IPTO) (2023) Monthly Energy Reports 2023, https://www.admie.gr/en/market/reports/monthly-energy-balance?since=01.01.2023&until=31.12.2023&op=Submit (last accessed 13/01/2025).

Public Power Corporation (PPC) (2024a) Monthly Data for CO2 emissions, https://www.ppcgroup.com/el/omilos-dei/dimosiefseis/miniaia-pliroforiaka-deltia/ ekpompes-co2 (last accessed 13/01/2025).    

Public Power Corporation (PPC) (2024b) Annual Report 2023, https://www.ppcgroup.com/media/yndddw43/apologismos-2023-0627-eng.pdf (last accessed 13/01/2025). 

Serafeim, A.V., N.Th. Fourniotis, R. Deidda, G. Kokosalakis, A. Langousis (2024) Leakages in Water Distribution Networks: Estimation Methods, Influential Factors, and Mitigation Strategies—A Comprehensive Review. Water 2024, 16(11), 1534; https://doi.org/10.3390/w16111534.

How to cite: Langousis, A., Fourniotis, N. Th., Serafeim, A. V., and Perdios, A.: Assessing the Environmental Footprint of Suboptimal Pump Configurations in Water Distribution Systems, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11915, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11915, 2025.