The long-term relationship between sea level and sediments in the Adriatic Sea

Sea-level rise (SLR) is one of the most important consequences of global warming and carries significant repercussions on coastal human settlements and natural ecosystems. Predictions for past and future coastal evolution at regional scale, require dynamically coupled models of glacio-and hydro isostatic adjustment (GIA) and hydro- and morpho-dynamics (HMD). In fact, sediment isostasy and compaction (SIC) become an important additional factor that must be implemented in the modelling, through data intake and adapted algorithms. The sedimentation in the Adriatic Sea varied greatly in rates and amounts and locations between glacial and interglacial times, partly controlled by SLR and GIA movements but also independently. By inserting sedimentation from 3D mapping knowledge (data assimilation) and HMD modelling in otherwise deterministic geophysical models, we reveal the magnitude of local SIC vs. regional GIA patterns which we reckon to be significant for our understanding of centennial-millennial coastal plain development and habitat evolution, and for evaluating anthropogenic vs natural sedimentation. Results will have repercussions on the “Building with nature” approach used in coastal management strategies.