Coastal lowlands in the world are facing huge challenges due to their increasing exposure to coastal, pluvial and fluvial flooding as well as relative sea-level rise, underscoring the need of comprehensive hazard and impact assessments. However, due to data scarcity for many coasts and river deltas worldwide, the generation of accurate and thorough information on these hazards as well as area, population and assets at risk is problematic and demanding. Especially as both relative sea-level rise impact and flood inundation are closely linked to land elevation, the reliability of such assessments heavily depends on the vertical accuracy and proper datum referencing of the coastal elevation data.
In this context, we present a concept designed for enhancing the quality of coastal exposure analysis in the world using publicly available coastal elevation data. By performing a globally consistent vertical datum conversion of elevation data to continuous local mean sea level, we account for uncertainties that have not or only inadequately been addressed in previous studies. This strengthens the reliability of coastal flood hazard and relative sea-level rise impact assessments. We demonstrate the improvements in the performance of recent global digital elevation models (DEMs) for impact assessments in data-sparse coastal regions by validating the DEMs for several key coastal lowlands such as large river deltas.
We also highlight a workflow for conducting a first-order assessment of single and multiple flood-type hazards in inaccessible and data-sparse coastal lowlands, showcasing the Ayeyarwady Delta in Myanmar. Our approach employs only freely available datasets such as satellite imagery, global precipitation estimates, satellite-based river discharge measurements, elevation data, land use information, and population data. The highly flexible workflow allows to integrate and combine various further datasets while keeping computational demands low.
Our approaches provide valuable strategies for assessing flood-prone areas on both regional and local scales in data-sparse coastal lowlands worldwide. They allow to attribute different flood hazards and enhance the quality of flood hazard assessments through the use of improved elevation data. Our work further provides a foundation for integrating vertical land motion dynamics to gain a better understanding of the interplay and implications of relative sea-level rise, changes in elevation, and changes in flood exposure. Ultimately, this contributes to a holistic perspective to grasp the complexity of these interconnected processes, which is essential for developing effective coastal risk adaptation and mitigation strategies.
How to cite: Seeger, K., Minderhoud, P., Brückner, H., and Brill, D.: Coasts in peril?! – How to assess flood hazards and relative sea-level rise impact in data-sparse coastal lowlands using open data, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10039, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10039, 2025.
Managing the impacts of legacy waste from historic coastal landfills, contaminated land and artificial (made) ground is a pressing issue, given the prevalence of sites, their proximity to settlements or environmentally sensitive areas, and risks associated with accelerating climate change (such as sea level rise and increased erosion). At the coast, these issues also fall between two largely separated policy areas – waste management on the one hand, and flood and coastal risk management on the other – which further complicates the development of solutions.
While existing research on historic coastal landfills has focussed on understanding environmental impacts, a holistic assessment in a UK context, compiling challenges across different dimensions, is yet to be explored. This paper presents initial findings from a major new UK research project – Resilience of Anthropogenic Coasts and Communities (RACC) – that is investigating these issues from an interdisciplinary perspective.
Drawing upon existing literature and expert knowledge, this presentation provides an interdisciplinary overview of the current challenges to managing coastal waste sites in the UK. It divides these challenges into environmental, political, legal and economic, and social and cultural dimensions, and identifies knowledge or policy gaps associated with each challenge.
Initial analysis reveals that multiple challenges interact to compound policy solutions in this context, underlining the complexity of addressing legacy waste in a changing climate as a ‘wicked problem’ that requires interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary solutions. Findings will be relevant to academics, policymakers and practitioners working in this context both in the UK and internationally.
How to cite: Russell, A., Cotton, I., Naylor, L., and Spencer, K.: Interdisciplinary approach to assessing multi-risk environments on the UK coasts: how do we sustainably manage eroding and flooding coasts in the vicinity of legacy landfill sites and communities?, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10565, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10565, 2025.
The irreversible physical, environmental and socio-economic damages of uncontrolled and intense recreational activities on coastal use have reached an alarming level. Shoreline evolution caused by climate change, sea level rise and rapid growth of coastal communities has also been drastically affecting tourism quality and available recreational areas which should be considered in implementation of adequate and correct management strategies to prevent further damage (Zacarias, Williams, and Newton 2011). It is recommended that the uncontrolled usage of beaches should not exceed a certain level, defined as carrying capacity, considering the long-term protection of coastal areas. In this study, it is mainly aimed to determine the carrying capacities of natural beaches of Dilek Peninsula-Buyuk Menderes national park (Karasu, Aydinlik, Kavakliburun and Icmeler), urban (Kadinlar, Davutlar and Guzelcamli) and non-urban (Pamucak) coasts of city of Kusadası using the Cifuentes (1992) method. The region-specific physical features and climatic conditions limiting the beach use are analysed and temperature (excessive sunshine), precipitation, wind speed, cloud cover and shoreline evolution correction factors are applied to assess the present Real Carrying Capacities (RCC). Also, scenarios of different climate models are adapted to the study area to predict the possible future impacts of climate change on recreational use. Since the beach area is a dynamic and time-dependent parameter changing under the climatic factors and human activities; the Coastal Area Vulnerability Model (CVI-SLR) is integrated into the existing methodology to consider the physical parameters (sea level rise rate, coastal slope, wave height, tidal range and sediment budget) and parameters formed by human effects (coastal protection structures and reduction of sediment supply) in the evaluation of the coastline (Ozyurt, G., 2007; Ozyurt & Ergin 2010). Two time scales are considered to assess shoreline evolution. Satellite images of the beaches are processed by Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) software to assess the shoreline evolution for years between 2004 and 2018. By applying the measured Weighted Linear Regression Rate (WLR) values to the current beach widths, erosion and accretion correction factors are calculated. Secondly, available beach areas as a result of shoreline retreat are calculated using depth of closure, berm heights and dimensions of active beach profiles and sea level rise of different scenarios during 2000-2100 years with 25-year intervals. Landward and upward movement of cross-shore beach profile and possible future shoreline evolution in coming 100 years are estimated using the Bruun Rule principle for sandy beaches (Davutlar, Guzelcamli, Kadinlar and Pamucak) based on sea level rise trends of East Mediterranean as RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 (Vousdoukas et al. 2017) and Mentes coast (Alper 2009). According to the results, the carrying capacities of all of the beaches are decreased by a ratio of two thirds mostly caused by excessive sunshine. Future predictions shows that almost all of the Kadinlar beach and a large part of the Pamucak and Davutlar beaches will be lost in the next 100 years as a result of sea level change and therefore coastline evolution both caused by climate change and uncontrolled recreational use.
How to cite: Khodkar, G. and Ozyurt Tarakcıoglu, G.: Changing capacity of beaches of Kusadasi, Turkiye considering sea level rise, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16309, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16309, 2025.
The coastal regions of New Jersey, including the wetlands on the Delaware Bay side, face significant challenges due to the impacts of sea-level rise (SLR). These effects include increasing water levels, heightened erosion, and frequent storm surges. Wetlands, critical components of coastal ecosystems, are particularly vulnerable to these changes. As sea levels rise, wetlands experience prolonged inundation, altered hydrodynamic flow patterns, vegetation loss due to drowning or reduced productivity, and increased salinity intrusion. These ecological disruptions compromise the health of wetland systems and pose a threat to the region's biodiversity, fisheries, and economy. Additionally, the loss of wetlands diminishes a critical natural buffer against coastal flooding, further increasing the vulnerability of New Jersey's coastline to the effects of climate change.
To address these challenges, advanced modeling techniques have been developed to simulate the impacts of SLR and provide decision-makers with actionable insights for restoration and future planning. Hydro-MEM, an integrated model, was developed by coupling hydrodynamic and marsh models to account for feedback mechanisms between hydrodynamics and wetland systems. This model captures key ecological and geomorphological processes, including changes in wetland productivity, migration patterns, vulnerability to SLR, and shifts in vegetation types.
For this study, Hydro-MEM was implemented for the New Jersey side of the Delaware Bay coastline, focusing on the impacts of various SLR scenarios on the region's wetland ecosystems. The model incorporates a range of hydrodynamic changes, including tidal variations, storm surge dynamics, and long-term sea-level trends. These scenarios allow for a comprehensive assessment of the future state of wetlands under different climate change projections.
The results highlight alarming trends under higher SLR scenarios. Wetlands are projected to lose significant productivity, with many areas transitioning from vegetated marshes to non-vegetated mudflats due to drowning. The spatial analysis of potential marsh migration suggests that the availability of suitable upland areas for migration will be critical to the survival of these ecosystems. Migration possibility maps derived from the model underscore the urgent need for proactive land management and restoration efforts to ensure that wetlands have adequate space to adapt to rising sea levels.
These findings emphasize the importance of integrated restoration strategies to mitigate the impacts of SLR. Measures such as land acquisition for marsh migration, sediment augmentation, and salinity management can enhance the resilience of wetland ecosystems. Furthermore, the Hydro-MEM model serves as a valuable tool for coastal planners and policymakers, offering a robust framework to evaluate the long-term effectiveness of restoration efforts and prioritize areas for intervention.
By advancing our understanding of the dynamic interactions between SLR and coastal wetlands, this research contributes to the broader goal of preserving the ecological and economic integrity of New Jersey's coastline. The insights gained from this study can inform similar efforts in other regions facing analogous challenges, ultimately supporting global efforts to adapt to the impacts of climate change.
How to cite: Mirkatouli, S. M., Bakhshandeh, N., Bahman, C., Alizad, K., and Jafari, N. H.: Sea-Level Rise Effects on Delaware Bay Wetlands: Modeling Ecosystem Vulnerability and Informing Restoration, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12460, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12460, 2025.
Sea-level rise (SLR) is one of the most important consequences of global warming and carries significant repercussions on coastal human settlements and natural ecosystems. Predictions for past and future coastal evolution at regional scale, require dynamically coupled models of glacio-and hydro isostatic adjustment (GIA) and hydro- and morpho-dynamics (HMD). In fact, sediment isostasy and compaction (SIC) become an important additional factor that must be implemented in the modelling, through data intake and adapted algorithms. The sedimentation in the Adriatic Sea varied greatly in rates and amounts and locations between glacial and interglacial times, partly controlled by SLR and GIA movements but also independently. By inserting sedimentation from 3D mapping knowledge (data assimilation) and HMD modelling in otherwise deterministic geophysical models, we reveal the magnitude of local SIC vs. regional GIA patterns which we reckon to be significant for our understanding of centennial-millennial coastal plain development and habitat evolution, and for evaluating anthropogenic vs natural sedimentation. Results will have repercussions on the “Building with nature” approach used in coastal management strategies.
How to cite: stocchi, P.: The long-term relationship between sea level and sediments in the Adriatic Sea, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12984, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12984, 2025.
Coastal dunes on sandy shores play a crucial role as a sand reservoir during storm surges. While storm-driven erosion and recovery are typical natural processes along coasts, human activities can disrupt this balance, making coastal evolution studies essential for sustainable coastal management, especially in areas with significant ecological value.
The aim of this research is to evaluate the coastal changes that have occurred since 1954 along the sandy stretch belonging to the Site of Community Importance (SCI) “Spiaggia del Mingardo e Scoglio di Cala del Cefalo,” located in the Campania Region (Southern Italy), as part of the PRIN project “GAIA,” which assesses flood risks for Italy's most significant plains and beaches.
Using an integrated GIS/Google Engine analysis of topographic maps, aerial and satellite imagery, and new high-resolution photogrammetric data, a trend of retreating shoreline and dune system has been identified. Shoreline analysis reveals that the coast has retreated by about 82 meters since 1954. However, it is important to note that this erosion has slowed significantly since the establishment of the SCI.
The intense impact of storm surges on this coastal stretch is evidenced by wash-over fans and heavily degraded vegetation cover. An inversion in the dune succession was observed through a floristic transect, with secondary vegetation extending into the hind dunes and exhibiting a high degree of salinisation. The gradual retreat of the dune is also indicated by the presence of pines along the line of secondary vegetation. Furthermore, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) clearly highlights intense degradation of dune toe vegetation, severely stressed by the increasing frequency of major storm surges.
Numerical modelling revealed that even storm surges with significant heights of less than 5 meters and long wave peak periods can severely impact dune stability and flood the backshore areas. Another key finding is the estimation of flooded areas and the calculation of the run-up for high-magnitude storm surges, which ranges from 3 meters to 7.5 meters.
This study underscores the significant threat that storm surges pose to a dune system of high naturalistic value. The findings demonstrate that increased storm intensity and frequency, driven by climate change, are accelerating coastal erosion and habitat degradation. The dune system is particularly vulnerable due to its role in protecting biodiversity and maintaining coastal resilience. Effective conservation and management strategies must prioritize the monitoring of storm surge impacts and integrate climate change projections to safeguard these valuable ecosystems. Enhanced protection measures, such as adaptive management and restoration efforts, are essential to mitigate the ongoing degradation and ensure the long-term sustainability of these critical coastal habitats.
How to cite: Sorrentino, A., Fasciglione, G., Mattei, G., Pappone, G., and Aucelli, P. P. C.: Prone to retreat or not: on the resilience to climate change of the Site of Community Importance (SCI) “Spiaggia del Mingardo e Scoglio di Cala del Cefalo” (Southern Italy), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1112, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1112, 2025.
The progressive increase of the global mean sea level due to the ongoing climate change is a major topic for safeguarding and developing coastal areas. However, the local sea level rise estimates may differ considerably from the global ones due to different subsidence/uplift rates.
In the framework of a major project investigating the relative sea level rise (RSLR) over several coastal areas of Italy, we present the results for the Venice Lagoon. This area is an exceptional case study since it has been severely exposed to repeated marine flooding throughout history and the subsidence rates are inhomogeneous across the entire Lagoon.
By using GNSS and InSAR data in the period 1996-2023 and 2017-2023, respectively, and assuming a constant subsidence rate, we estimated the Vertical Land Movements (VLM) in 11 key areas across the Lagoon for the years 2050, 2100 and 2150.
The results show that while Venice ancient city is almost stable, the three inlets where the MoSE (Modulo Sperimentale Elettromeccanico) barrier is placed, are undergoing up to 2.9 mm/yr of subsidence. The future sea level rise in the lagoon is then computed by adding the measured cumulated subsidence to the expected global sea level rise released in the 6th Assessment Report (AR6) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6; SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5). This procedure allowed us to evaluate the RSLR in each of the investigated areas in the years 2050, 2100, and 2150 AD. These values have been projected on accurate 1 m resolution Digital Surface Models derived from LiDAR data to realize flooding maps of each area.
By 2150, from 112 (SSP2.6) to 159 (SSP 8.5) km2 of land are exposed at risk of flooding depending on the considered emission scenario.
Finally, considering the highest historical extreme events of high water levels caused by the joint effects of astronomical tides, seiches, and atmospheric forcing, and the new RSLR at 2150, the water level may temporarily increase up to 3.47 m. With this value of SL, up to 65% of land may be flooded. In the lowest area, about 90% of the land will be covered by water (i.e. Chioggia area). This extreme scenario poses the question of the future safety of lowland areas in the entire Lagoon but also of the durability and effectiveness of the MoSE artificial barrier that protects the lagoon from high tides, SLR, and flooding.
How to cite: Trippanera, D., Anzidei, M., Tolomei, C., Alberti, T., Bosman, A., Brunori, C. A., Serpelloni, E., Vecchio, A., Falciano, A., and Deli, G.: Future sea-level rise scenarios: an example from the Venice Lagoon (Italy), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13617, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13617, 2025.
Coastal threats associated with Mediterranean cyclones (and the so called medicanes) and sea-level rise have become a significant concern over recent decades. These phenomena are affecting coastal communities, causing various issues related to coastal flooding. In this study, we modeled the impact of a Mediterranean hurricane under future sea-level rise scenarios along the southeastern coast of Sicily (Italy). The impact of Medicane Zorbas (September 26-29, 2018) was used as a baseline scenario for modeling the potential future effects of Mediterranean hurricanes. The significant wave heights and water levels were simulated using Delft3D, incorporating present-day conditions and sea-level rise scenarios for the years 2050, 2100, and 2150 under the IPCC 2021 projections. Coastal flooding, along with cumulative sedimentation and erosion, was subsequently modeled using XBeach in designated target areas previously affected by Medicane Zorbas. The model results were compared with observational tide gauge data to assess the root mean square error. Furthermore, morpho-topographic data acquired through Laser Scanner and Structure from Motion techniques were used to assess the morphological changes caused by Mediterranean hurricanes. The results of the model highlighted that flooding will increasingly affect larger areas in the near future. Additionally, a medicane event with an intensity 20% greater than Medicane Zorbas could impact larger areas at a mesoscale in the Mediterranean, with effects on beach erosion and deposit accumulation in the backdune areas.
How to cite: Kushabaha, A., Scardino, G., Miglietta, M. M., Bonaldo, D., Monforte, P., Mastronuzzi, G., González-Alemán, J. J., and Scicchitano, G.: Coastal impact of Mediterranean hurricanes in a future sea-level rise scenario, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3063, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3063, 2025.
Estuaries are crucial for freshwater and nutrient cycling throughout shelf seas that drives the biodiversity and ecology of coastal and marine wildlife, and provide ecosystem services that sustain the livelihoods and wellbeing of coastal communities. These ecosystems are, however, potential pollution corridors and sinks carrying sewage and other loads containing harmful pathogens and contaminants – a serious health issue that is worsening with littoralisation and population growth. Being at the interface between oceanographic and fluvial processes, estuaries are the most dynamic coastal system, where water quality processes and habitat dynamics are shaped by complex geo-physical, chemical, and biological interactions that change over small spatio-temporal scales and are unique to each estuary. It is essential that these systems maintain safe water quality standards and that we are prepared for future changes in water quality that will affect their ecological status and public health risk.
This research aims to characterise variability and potential change in indicators of estuary health across the UK, using a robust analysis and modelling strategy, that can be built upon to evaluate a range of water quality degradation processes and used to inform future management strategies. We will present the first analysis of both riverine and marine climate projections for the 21st Century (UKCP18 RCP8.5 perturbed parameter ensemble), downscaled to hourly- and sub-meso-scales, and applied to all estuaries in England. In particular, characterising projected changes in hydrology, temperature, salinity, sea level, and coincident conditions. Additionally, we have developed fine-scale estuary hydrodynamic models (Delft3D) of all estuaries and present potential changes in simulated estuary residence times as a result of projected sea-level rise and changing hydrology. The analyses and simulations highlight estuaries and estuary types that are vulnerable to changes in the physical stressors of coastal water quality – where coastal management efforts and hazard response should be focused the coming decades.
How to cite: Robins, P., Lyddon, C., Coxon, G., Clough, T., Furnish, A., Barada, M., Devitt, L., Coulthard, T., Jones, D., Barkwith, A., Fung, F., Hayes, N., Hutchings, A., and Orr, H.: Vulnerability of estuary water quality to climate change, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9975, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9975, 2025.
Global sea level rise caused by climate change is not uniform geographically, which emphasizes the importance of considering relative sea level (RSL) when assessing the risks associated with sea level rise for different regions and scales. However, our understanding of the impacts of relative sea level on coastal zones is still limited since lacking information on relative sea-level change (RSLC) at a high resolution. To address this, we combined VLM from the Global Navigation Satellite System and global mean sea-level trend measured by satellite altimetry to produce global RSL velocity in 0.25-degree spatial resolution during 1993-2022. Our research finds that, 99.30% of the regional RSL rise over the past three decades has been dominated by ocean mass increase and thermal expansion, that is, absolute sea level rises faster than vertical land motion velocity. Besides, the global mean RSL has risen over the past three decades to 2.03mm/yr. Moreover, the average RSL rise rate of tropical island nations is approximately 2.25 times faster (3.75mm/yr) than non-island countries (1.66mm/yr). Additionally, the average RSL rise rate of the Global South (3.53mm/yr) is nearly 12 times higher than that of the Global North (0.30mm/yr). Coastal cities in the Global South, experiencing large population density and significant economic growth, are facing a heightened risk of RSL rise during development, exacerbating existing inequality between the Global North and South and emphasizing the urgent need for sustainable development and adaptation strategies in the Global South.
How to cite: Liang, X., Wei, S., and Zhang, H.: A comprehensive assessment of socioeconomic impacts of global sea level rise on coastal zones, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5536, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5536, 2025.
Posters on site: Tue, 29 Apr, 08:30–10:15 | Hall X3
Coastal zones in the Mediterranean are highly vulnerable due to ongoing sea-level rise, combined with the region's intense seismic and volcanic activity. Low-lying areas are particularly at risk, as their geomorphological evolution is strongly influenced by natural processes and anthropogenic interventions. Understanding and assessing these dynamic changes is critical for developing effective coastal management strategies to mitigate risks and promote sustainable development.
This study focuses on the eastern coastline of Crete and introduces an innovative approach to assessing coastal vulnerability using a modified Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) methodology. The framework integrates seven key factors: geomorphology, coastal slope, relative sea-level change, shoreline erosion and accretion rates, mean wave height, mean tidal range, and the wind regime of the area. Additionally, the study evaluates future vulnerability under three distinct scenarios—short-term, medium-term, and long-term timescales. By projecting the potential impacts of coastal erosion and sea-level rise, the approach provides a robust foundation for understanding and mitigating future challenges.
The proposed methodology is pioneering, incorporating new parameters to refine and enhance the traditional CVI framework. This innovation enables a deeper understanding of coastal vulnerability, allowing researchers and policymakers to identify and prioritize areas of greatest risk. By integrating geomorphological analysis with scenario-based projections, the approach delivers actionable insights for resilience planning and adaptation strategies. This research makes a significant contribution to the field of coastal vulnerability assessment by offering a replicable framework that can be applied across diverse Mediterranean coastal settings. Its findings underscore the urgency of addressing coastal challenges while highlighting the potential for methodological innovation to advance integrated coastal management.
This project, titled "Study of the Impacts of Climate Change on Coastal Vulnerability in Eastern Crete," has received funding under the program "NATURAL ENVIRONMENT AND INNOVATIVE ACTIONS 2022," Priority Axis 3: "RESEARCH AND APPLICATION," budget: €200,000, beneficiary: NCSR Demokritos, funding body: Greece's Green Fund
How to cite: Filippaki, E., Tsakalos, E., Kazantzaki, M., and Bassiakos, Y.: Assessing Coastal Vulnerability along the Eastern Coastline of Crete: An Integrated Approach, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20269, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20269, 2025.
Coastal erosion is a long-standing global concern. It affects a growing number of coastal sites and constitutes a major threat to coastal zones, with the most significant natural factor driving this phenomenon being sea level rise. In this context, the development of a reliable predictive model for future coastline changes has become increasingly important, particularly in areas such as the eastern Mediterranean façades, where the interplay between rising sea levels, coastal environment dynamics, and human activities is dramatically altering the coastline.
A characteristic case is the broader area of Southeast Cyprus, where substantial changes in the low-relief coastal zone are observed, posing a major risk to a significant portion of its coastal space. This results in direct socio-economic, environmental, and other consequences for the region.
This research explores these challenges by proposing an innovative methodological approach for developing a Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) tailored to the coastal zone of Ayia Napa, Southeast Cyprus. To achieve this, the study establishes the chronological framework of sea transgression (past shoreline positions) and the sedimentation regimes in the selected coastal area-an accomplishment that has not been pursued before. Subsequently, the evolution of the coastal zone is assessed in the short and long term, and a risk assessment is conducted using a systematic and integrative approach to identify and quantify the physical characteristics of the area, backed by the analysis of historical archives on coastal erosion. Building upon these findings, the CVI incorporates seven variables: geomorphology, grain size analysis, coastal slope, relative sea level change, mean tidal range, mean wave height and wind direction regime. The reliability of the proposed CVI is checked by examining the rate of historical shoreline movement.
Finally, the CVI is applied, utilizing the produced analytical data under three different sea level rise scenarios (current, 2050, and 2100). This leads to the development of a series of digital maps (for each scenario), depicting both the future shoreline positions and the vulnerability of the coastal zone in response to rising sea levels.
This research introduces methodological advancements by building upon the extensive application of CVIs and incorporating new variables with a novel methodological approach, providing new insights to the scientific community. Hence, this study not only addresses a research challenge within the chosen coastal area, but also opens new horizons for the integrated management of coastal zones elsewhere.
This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie Grant Agreement No 101034403.
How to cite: Tsakalos, E., Kazantzaki, M., Stagonas, D., Sarris, A., and Filippaki, E.: Forecasting Changes on Vulnerable Shorelines: Methodological Approaches for Developing a Coastal Vulnerability Index in Southeast Cyprus, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20211, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20211, 2025.
Sea-level rise and intensifying storm surges pose escalating threats to coastal hospitality sectors, yet quantification of the impact of climate change on the direct economic costs remains limited by the too low resolution of the available climate projections. This study systematically assesses storm surge-related economic damages to the hospitality sector in the Adriatic Basin, with a focus on the Veneto and Emilia-Romagna regions in Italy, using high-resolution outputs from the Adriatic Sea and Coast (AdriSC) climate modeling suite. The analysis utilizes two 31-year AdriSC simulations (1987-2017 evaluation and 2070-2100 RCP 8.5 scenario), which provide unprecedented meter-scale spatial resolution along the Adriatic coastline, enabling detailed assessment of local-scale inundation patterns.
The economic assessment methodology integrates multiple analytical frameworks: digital terrain modelling for topographic precision, machine learning techniques for hospitality sector asset classification, and depth-damage functions calibrated specifically to land-use classifications within the tourism infrastructure. By processing AdriSC's high-resolution inundation projections through a monetized grid-cell framework, this study identifies critical vulnerability hotspots within hospitality clusters while accounting for complex coastal geomorphology. The analysis examines direct damages to hotels, restaurants, and recreational facilities, quantifying potential losses through a damage model that incorporates both flood height and economic exposure.
Results demonstrate significant spatial heterogeneity in economic vulnerability, with certain understudied regions showing greater exposure to storm surge hazards than previously documented areas. Under the RCP 8.5 scenario, projected damages indicate substantial direct economic losses, particularly in high-density tourism zones where the interaction between coastal morphology and infrastructure density amplifies potential impacts. The study reveals that when sea level rise is incorporated into the assessment, the occurrences of moderate to extreme events increase by orders of magnitude.
This research establishes a replicable framework for translating high-resolution climate model outputs into actionable economic damage assessments, while introducing innovative methodologies for asset valuation and vulnerability assessment in the hospitality sector. The findings provide quantitative evidence to support targeted adaptation strategies for protecting vital coastal hospitality infrastructure, particularly in regions where complex coastline geometries influence local surge dynamics. Furthermore, the methodology demonstrates the value of integrating advanced climate modelling with systematic economic analysis to enhance understanding of sectoral climate risks and support evidence-based policy decisions.
How to cite: G. Sales, V., Denamiel, C., and Bosello, F.: Impact of Climate Change on the Direct Economic Costs of Coastal Hazards to Hospitality: a Meter-Scale Experiment in the Adriatic Basin, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16900, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16900, 2025.
Southeast Asia faces unprecedented challenges as climate change and population growth accelerate the degradation of coastal and marine ecosystems, increasing risks to coastal communities and infrastructure. The region is an archipelago characterised by an extensive and densely populated coastal zone, including numerous low-lying reef islands. Such areas are highly vulnerable to coastal hazards, both present and future. Comprehensive evaluations of coastal vulnerability are therefore critical for designing effective interventions and long-term risk reduction strategies within this dynamic region. Restoration and conservation of coastal and marine habitats, such as coral reefs, mangroves, and seagrasses, offer sustainable long-term strategies for coastline protection. However, there remains a lack of essential information on the spatial and functional roles of ecosystems in mitigating coastal disaster risks. Here we assess the risk reduction capabilities of these habitats under climate change projections to identify their effectiveness for coastal protection. A Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) was created for the coastline of Southeast Asia (1000 m segments; 247,643 in total) using the InVEST model. Results suggest that 25.8% of the coastal areas are classified as high risk, 47.7% are at medium risk, and 26.6% are at low risk. Population data for adjacent coastal areas indicate that approximately 23.2 million individuals reside within the study region, with an estimated 19.6%, 48.4%, and 32% individuals classified under low-, medium-, and high-risk categories, respectively. Model simulations highlight the critical role of natural habitats in mitigating exposure. Preserving habitat functioning reduced exposure by 22%, underscoring the importance of healthy ecosystems for risk reduction. Our findings suggest that coastal and marine ecosystems provide positive protective benefits within remote coastal settings. Natural habitats are therefore an effective strategy to address climate change and enhance resilience to coastal hazards in the region.
How to cite: Andrawina, Y. O., Diah Setiawati, M., Hamel, P., and Morgan, K.: Assessing Coastal Vulnerability in Southeast Asia using the InVEST Model, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9377, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9377, 2025.
Low lying, flood prone, coastal areas have historically been identified as ideal locations to dispose of landfill waste due to their low land values. It is estimated that there are in excess of 10,000 such landfills in Europe alone, many of which are now threatened with erosion as sea level rise driven by anthropogenic climate change renders flood defences ineffective. Many of these historic coastal landfills do not have records of the quantity or composition of the waste stored within them and in many of these locations waste is already being eroded into the coastal zone. The potential consequences of such waste release are wide ranging, impacting human health, coastal communities and marine ecosystems.
Geomorphometric techniques can be used to quantify volumes of released waste and landfill erosion rates, which when combined with geochemical investigation of landfill waste can form a critical component of hazard assessment, landscape management and remediation efforts. Here, we report the results of a new monitoring programme, for one such historic coastal landfill in the South East of England. This work integrates terrestrial and aerial laser scanning, aerial photography and fieldwork to constrain the volume of waste contained within this site, and estimates the rate of erosion of landfill material into the marine environment.
How to cite: Grieve, S., Xue, S., and Spencer, K.: Geomorphometric monitoring of eroding historic coastal landfills, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12686, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12686, 2025.
Coastal erosion has its roots in complex natural and anthropogenic effects. To advance in identifying these roots, erosion and accretion rates were defined for the Pacific coast of Panama. Satellite images spanning 20 years indicated an erosion rate between 2 – 4 m/yr while greater values of 6 m/yr were obtained via orthomosaics from UAV flyovers between 2020 and 2023. Punta Chame and Farallon are among the most erosional sites evaluated in this period, with maximum erosional rates of 20 m/yr. Averaged accretion rates with satellite images and UAV flyovers remained close to 2 m/yr. Coastal hydrodynamics average values were obtained from previous studies using numerical simulations and are used to characterize the sites. Due to the scarcity of in situ measurements (i.e. water level, wave spectrum), estimations were made to define the dominant erosional forcing at relevant coastal sites. The mean significant wave height was 0.5 m where the most erosional spots were identified i.e. Punta Chame and Farallon, and it coincides with the largest tidal range of 4-5 m within Panama's Pacific coast. Future work requires in situ measurements to understand the seasonality of erosional spots along with the defining hydrodynamics along with sediment analysis from continental rivers.
How to cite: Guerra-Chanis, G., Arango, S., and Toro Valencia, V.: Assessment of coastal erosion rates off the pacific coast of Panama, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14287, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14287, 2025.
Coastal shorelines are dynamic by nature, evolving in reaction to hydro-geomorphic processes across the coast. Coastal shoreline change is accelerating globally due to shifts in land use brought on by coastal urbanisation and increasing human population pressures. In order to develop suitable risk management alternatives and ensure long-term management of populations, infrastructure, and ecosystems, coastline location over time and coastal erosion patterns are crucial for addressing current and future climate change scenarios. However, achieving this purpose is particularly challenging on sandy shores that slope gently, where even slight variations in sea level cause notable morphological changes. The coastal areas of India are both physiologically productive and highly populated. However, they are susceptible to erosion and deposition from both natural disasters and human activity. When assessing shoreline dynamics, these threats have been given priority as part of the sustainable management of coastal zones. In this study, we show how the artificial neural network (ANN), and support vector machine (SVM) algorithms can be used as interpretable machine learning (ML) models to measure changes in the shoreline. The ML model contains weights that are multiplied with relevant inputs/features to obtain a better prediction. This study showed how well Earth Observation and geographic information systems may be combined to provide comprehensive, long-term research on coastal change. According to the data, the rate of erosion along the Chennai coast varies between -0.2 and -2.5 m/year. Along the Chennai coast, accretion rates vary from 1 to 4.6 meters per year. With erosion rates ranging from -0.1 to -6.8 m/y and accretion rates ranging from 0.2 to 5.0 m/y, the shoreline of Vishakhapatnam displays a regular pattern of both processes. The accretion rate along the Puri coast varies between 0.1 and 3.22 m/y. Given how crucial these coastal towns are to India's cultural and economic endeavours, the alterations to the shorelines of these three metropolises are quite concerning. In addition to raising sea levels globally, climate change and global warming are intensifying and increasing the frequency of extreme occurrences like tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal, which includes these three shores. The coasts of these urban areas may shift due to a range of human activities and natural events like tropical storms and rising sea levels. For the coastal regions of Vishakhapatnam, Puri, Chennai, and other Indian coastal towns with comparable physical attributes, this study may aid in the development of suitable management plans and regulations.
How to cite: Kannaujiya, V. K. and Rai, A. K.: Spatial modeling and analysis for coastal shoreline change detection across the major eastern Indian metropolises Using Earth Observation and Interpretable Machine Learning Approach, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-675, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-675, 2025.
Beaches are complex and dynamic sedimentary environments in which marine and continental processes continuously interact on various spatial and temporal scales, also influenced by human activities. Beaches provide a wide range of essential ecosystem services for environmental health and human well-being, such as coastal protection, rich biodiversity, cultural, and aesthetic value.
Furthermore, from an economic perspective, beaches are important resources. In fact, the growth of coastal tourism has significantly boosted commercial activities making the tourism industry one of the most dynamic and remarkable sectors for local and national economies. A good example is represented by the countries in the southern Mediterranean area, which are among the most popular tourist destinations in the world. Furthermore, demographic, social, and environmental changes currently impacting coastal areas, particularly during the summer seasons, can lead to environmental degradation and undermine the sustainability of this ecosystem. To address the potential issues arising from anthropic coastal exploitation coupled with climate-related variations expected for the next decades, it is important to assess the site-specific beach carrying capacity, generally defined as the relationship between the available beach area and the occupancy level.
Since the 1960s, bibliography studies have shown that growing interest in coastal tourism has led to the development of different methods for calculating carrying capacity. Through field surveys and laboratory analysis, this work proposes an integrated geo-environmental characterization of coastal systems, using an index-based approach to determine beaches carrying capacity and so assess the limits beyond which irreversible damage, such as erosion, habitat destruction, or pollution, occurs due to human activities and climate-related processes. To this end, data on various factors that may impact carrying capacity are integrated:
- Geological factors assessed in terms of sedimentological composition and geomorphological characteristics, which influence the choice and spatial distribution of tourists across the investigated beach sectors;
- Morphodynamic factors affecting the evolution and the use of the beach environment, in terms of available and usable space. This is evaluated in terms of natural processes such as weather- and marine-related events (e.g., waves or storms) that may cause beach retreat, and anthropogenic processes, which can lead to changes in sediment budget (e.g., the amount of sediment potentially removed by tourists);
- Waste pollution factors that, in addition to causing environmental problems and health risks, can reduce the scenic value and compromise public use of the beaches.
- Meteorological factors analyzed through data on rainfall, wind, cloud cover, and temperature, as these elements influence the recreational use of the beaches, affecting bathing activities and the presence of tourists.
Based on the surveys, analyses, and evaluations, the proposed method aims to provide a more comprehensive carrying capacity assessment. This tool, useful for supporting sustainable beach management and planning actions, will lead to a more efficient use of coastal resources to protect beaches from geo-environmental degradation.
How to cite: Sasso, C., Rizzo, A., and Mastronuzzi, G.: On the assessment of the beach carrying capacity through an integrated geo-environmental characterization in the context of climate change., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-890, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-890, 2025.
This study focuses on the geo-hydrological characterization of the coastal zone of Tavoliere delle Puglie (Apulia region, Italy), one of the widest coastal plains in southern Italy. Nowadays, the area, mostly devoted to agricultural purposes, is subjected to several natural and anthropogenic stresses, such as sea-level rise and consequent shoreline modifications, groundwater pumping from shallow and deep aquifers, and land subsidence, strongly enhanced by human activity. Recent investigations have been conducted to assess the impact of relative sea level rise along coastal sectors over the next few decades by considering multidisciplinary data. These include IPCC sea-level rise projections for different climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5); coastal topography from airborne and terrestrial LiDAR data, vertical land movement rates obtained from the analysis of InSAR and GNSS data, and shoreline displacement derived from the analysis of multiple sources. According to the results of such analyses, under the worst-case scenario (SSP5-8.5), the local sea-level rise will reach values of 0.39 ± 0.12 m, 1.23 ± 0.31 m, 2.07 ± 0.56 m with a land surface of 50.5 km2, 118.7 km2, and 147.7 km2 potentially submerged in 2050, 2100, and 2150, respectively. Regarding the hydrogeological characterization of local coastal aquifers, recent studies have highlighted that groundwater overexploitation has led to a significant decline in piezometric levels, reducing the natural hydraulic barrier of groundwater that prevents the intrusion of saline water from the sea. By using a combination of models, i.e. independent soil water balance and a groundwater flow model, the hydrogeological balance and related groundwater budget have been assessed for three different pumping scenarios: FullIWR (full irrigation water requirement), IWR under CDI (irrigation water requirement under controlled deficit irrigation) and ActIWR (current irrigation water demand). About 300 borehole stratigraphies allowed to build the groundwater conceptual model, while the distribution of the hydrogeological parameters of the aquifer has been estimated by means of a variety of geostatistical tools. The modelling results suggest that both groundwater discharge and storage decrease in time due to i) reduction of effective infiltration, ii) increase in water demand for agricultural practices, iii) changes in rain regime, and iv) increase in evapotranspiration rate.
The ingression of marine water compromises groundwater quality, reducing the underground freshwater resources, making it unsuitable for human and agricultural purposes and posing a risk to regional water security. The vulnerability due to this phenomenon is exacerbated by Relative Sea-Level Rise (RSLR), which further increases the pressure gradient driving saltwater into coastal aquifers, moving inland the coastline. Therefore, further investigations will focus on modeling the salinization of the aquifers due to the seawater intrusion as a consequence of RSLR. This will provide a comprehensive understanding of groundwater flow dynamics for supporting the integrated management of the coastal areas in response to ongoing climate change and defining tailored land-use practices for the sustainable exploitation of groundwater resources.
How to cite: Mastronuzzi, G., Liso, I. S., Rizzo, A., Petio, P., Scardino, G., Anzidei, M., Caldara, M. A., Capolongo, D., De Santis, V., Pagliarulo, P., Parise, M., Pastore, N., Refice, A., Scicchitano, G., Serpelloni, E., Vecchio, A., and Zingaro, M.: Impacts of RSLR on the Tavoliere delle Puglie Coastal Area (southern Italy), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6044, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6044, 2025.
The rising sea level is considered one of the most evident consequences of ongoing climate warming. Similarly, the spatial distribution of weather and paroxysmal events in coastal areas, as well as their temporal occurrence, are being modified by climate change. Low-lying coastal areas and related mobile coastal systems (e.g., alluvial coastal plains, sandy beaches, delta river mouths) are particularly prone to be affected by sea level variations (SLVs), both temporary (i.e., storm surge and tsunami – SS and Ts) and permanent (i.e., sea level rise - SLR), especially when combined with negative vertical land movements (VLMs). In recent years, the number of studies focusing on the analysis of potential coastal vulnerability to SLVs that consider the local geomorphological settings coupled with the expected SLR has constantly increased. In this study, an analysis of the peer-reviewed papers addressing the sea level rise issues is performed through the evaluation of documents included in a database implemented by searching in Scopus through specific research queries. Special focus is given to the methodological aspects proposed to evaluate SLR impacts on coastal systems of the Mediterranean region. Then, a sub-set of papers published in the last five years was selected, reviewed, and categorized according to the methods applied for the sea level impact evaluation. Finally, the evaluation of the suitability level of the methods applied in the select papers is also proposed, expressing the level of applicability of each method in relation to specific aspects of analysis.
The results allowed to state that on a global scale, since 2008 the number of peer-reviewed papers dealing with current sea level rise issues is constantly increasing, with the maximum published number reached in 2021 and 2023. Furthermore, a high number of papers are focused on the “tsunami” analysis and impact evaluation and, among the collected papers, more than 50% of them included in the title the words “SLR” and “Vulnerability”. Concerning the Mediterranean scale, the analysis has highlighted that a higher percentage of research papers (87%) was published in the period 2008-2023 and that the highest number of papers per year (14) was published in 2016 and 2021. Furthermore, Italy, Egypt, and Spain are the countries with the highest number of published papers. Finally, for what concerns the analysis of the methodological approaches, the GIS-based static method is still the most used in the papers published over the last 5 years, followed by model-based approaches. Nevertheless, the accuracy of the most recent studies can be considered higher due to the availability of i) more detailed projections of the future sea level derived from high-resolution models, ii) high-resolution digital terrain models, and iii) advanced satellite-derived data analysis for the assessment of accurate VGMs. Thus, although there has not been a clear shift in the applied methodological approaches, more recent works are based on the use of more accurate and defined input data. The modelling approaches are highly exploitable in the case of limited areas to be investigated, due to the high computational efforts required for the analysis.
How to cite: Rizzo, A., Mattei, G., Dumon Steenssens, L., Anzidei, M., Aucelli, P. P. C., Alberti, T., Antonioli, F., Bezzi, A., Bonaldo, D., Fontolan, G., Furlani, S., Liso, I. S., Parise, M., Sansò, P., Scicchitano, G., Trippanera, D., Vecchio, A., and Mastronuzzi, G.: Relative sea level rise issues and vulnerability in the Mediterranean basin: state of the art on the methodological aspects and assessment of their suitability, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2890, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2890, 2025.
The coastal plains of the Italian peninsula and its main islands are highly exposed to the ongoing sea-level rise triggered by global warming and often accelerated by land subsidence. In the frame of the GAIA Project, funded by the Italian Ministry of University and Research, here we focus on the current and expected relative sea level trend at 2030-2050-2100 and 2150 for 39 main coastal plains which are affected by spatially variable rates of Vertical Land Movements (VLM). To estimate the current VLM rates we have used geodetic data from about 27 years of continuous GNSS observations at selected stations located within 5 km from the coast and InSAR data from the Copernicus European Ground Motion Service (https://egms.land.copernicus.eu/). The latter were integrated with additional InSAR data sets to extend the data time series to the last decade. We provide revised sea level rise projections for the entire Italian region by including the estimated VLM in the SL projections released by the IPCC in the AR6 Report for different Shared Socio-economic Pathways and global warming levels (www.ipcc.ch). To reinforce the analysis and the interpretations, we also considered the sea level data recorded at the tide gauge stations belonging to the PSMSL (https://psmsl.org) and ISPRA (https://www.mareografico.it/) networks. Results show the current IPCC projections are often underestimated and not representative of the expected future sea levels since they neglect the effect of VLM due to tectonics and local factors. Finally, we show detailed maps of the expected flooding scenarios for 39 main coastal plains of the Italian region, projected on high resolution DEM obtained by the spatial analysis of LiDAR data available from the Italian Ministero dell’Ambiente e della Tutela del Territorio. The geoprocessing, that included the reanalysis of the vertical datum of the original LiDAR acquisition to project the scenarios on the mean sea level, highlighted that about 10.000 km2 of the coasts are yet exposed to multiple coastal hazard. Enhanced impacts on the environment, human activities and coastal infrastructures, are expected, requiring adaptation measures to face the ongoing sea level rise.
How to cite: Anzidei, M., Trippanera, D., Bosman, A., Brunori, C. A., Alberti, T., Vecchio, A., Serpelloni, E., Tolomei, C., Benassai, G., Bignami, C., Fasciglione, G., Iacono, F., Mattei, G., Rizzo, A., Aucelli, P., and Mastronuzzi, G.: Multi-temporal relative sea level rise scenarios up to 2150 along the Italian coastal plains: new insights from the GAIA Project, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17509, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17509, 2025.
Rocky coasts represent the most widespread coastal environment and, under the present accelerated sea-level rise scenario, are suffering huge impacts in terms of erosion. This type of coastline, like all coastal environments, is subject to the effects of a wide range of marine and terrestrial processes that continually reshape them over time.
This research aims to propose a new methodological approach for assessing the susceptibility of rocky coasts to forcing factors that may be exacerbated by ongoing climate change.
The proposed method is based on the combination of two indexes, i.e., the Physical Element Index (PEIx), which considers the main morphological and geotechnical characteristics of the cliff and determines its proneness to erosion, and a Cliff Forcing Index (CFIx), which describes the marine forcing agents affecting the considered coastal sector.
Firstly, several variables were selected according to previous studies to construct the two matrices. Then, a specific weight factor (Wfi) was attributed to each variable, i.e. each one of the Physical Elements and Forcing Agents considered, according to their specific relevance/contribution to cliff erosion susceptibility. In the last step, the two matrices were interpolated to obtain the final Susceptibility Index (CSIx).
The approach was applied to different coastal sectors located along the southwestern coast of Italy, in the regions of Campania, Calabria and Sicilia. The different study sectors were selected since they differ in geological, geomorphological and forcing/dynamic settings.
The analysis demonstrated that 6% of the coastal sectors fell in the “Very Low” class of susceptibility (Class 1), 38% belonged to the “Low” class (Class 2), 28% to the “Medium” (Class 3), 22% to the “High” (Class 4) and the remaining 6% belonged to the “Very High” class (Class 5) of susceptibility.
The proposed index-based method, which was finally validated through the comparison of obtained results with recorded cliff erosion rates, is valid for classifying a diverse array of cliffed areas placed in both temperate and equatorial environments.
In addition, the method allows also to get useful information for appropriate spatial planning in areas that have not been anthropised yet and to prevent the development of infrastructure in areas of high susceptibility that can be identified as “hotspots” that require sound monitoring strategies and, at places, immediate protection actions.
How to cite: Tursi, M. F., Anfuso, G., Manno, G., Mattei, G., and Aucelli, P. P. C.: A multi-component approach to predict erosion susceptibility of rocky coasts: marine, terrestrial and climatic forcing. An application in Southern Italy, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-685, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-685, 2025.
Posters virtual: Mon, 28 Apr, 14:00–15:45 | vPoster spot 2
EGU25-14644 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS25
Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment in CZMA Areas: A Geospatial Framework Integrating Future Climate ProjectionsMon, 28 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST) | vP2.14
Coastal Zone Management Act (CZMA) areas in the United States are critical regions where coastal development and environmental conservation converge. Over 50 years, the CZMA has established a federal framework for state-level coastal management, fostering resilience to dynamic challenges. However, these regions increasingly face compounding risks from hazards such as sea-level rise, storm surges, and extreme precipitation, compounded by socio-economic vulnerabilities and geomorphological dynamics.
This study develops a geospatial framework for multi-hazard risk assessment in CZMA areas, integrating geomorphic and sedimentological characteristics with high-resolution datasets and socio-economic indicators to compute a detailed risk index. High-resolution datasets, including satellite-derived shoreline positions and wave and tidal records, are integrated with advanced geospatial and machine learning models, to enhance spatial and temporal projections. Future climate scenarios (2030, 2050, 2100) from CMIP6 datasets are used to assess long-term impacts of sea-level rise and extreme events, with scenario-based modeling addressing uncertainties across different emissions and socioeconomic pathways.
Preliminary findings reveal significant heterogeneity in risk distribution across CZMA areas, with low-elevation coastal plains, deltas, and lagoons identified as the most vulnerable due to geomorphic sensitivity and several challenges to protect them. Our comprehensive map highlights hotspots where erosion, flooding, and socio-economic disparities converge, enabling tailored adaptation strategies. This research bridges policy and science by integrating CZMA legal frameworks with geospatial and technological innovations, offering a scalable and transferable methodology for assessing and managing coastal multi-hazard risks globally.
How to cite: Poudel, S., Bista, S., and Talchabhadel, R.: Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment in CZMA Areas: A Geospatial Framework Integrating Future Climate Projections, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14644, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14644, 2025.
