Uncertainty Analysis of Flood Forecasting in Poorly Gauged Catchments

In catchments that are poorly monitored or in catchments that are not gauged, the degree of uncertainty in predicting flood risk is high. This is unfortunately a very common picture in Bulgaria. The presence of climate change and the uncertainty in the determination of key input parameters such as peak water discharge, Manning's roughness coefficient, etc. introduce a deep uncertainty in flood modelling.  Under these conditions, in the search for adaptive and reliable flood risk management strategies, uncertainty is quantified using the Monte Carlo method to generate probabilistic results and by analyzing it using Information-gap decision theory, a non-probabilistic method that is a quantified theory of robustness.