HS5.1.7 | Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty for Planning Water Systems Adaptation to Global Change
PICO
Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty for Planning Water Systems Adaptation to Global Change
Convener: David GoldECSECS | Co-conveners: Matteo Giuliani, Jazmin Zatarain Salazar, Charles Rougé

Water scarcity and management under uncertain future conditions represent significant global challenges that necessitate adaptive, robust, and inclusive adaptation strategies. Climate change is causing increased frequency and severity of extreme weather events such as floods and droughts, making it difficult to predict and manage water resources since historical data is no longer a reliable guide for future conditions. Growing urban populations demand more water and can outpace water infrastructure development, leading to shortages and inequities in water distribution, often exacerbated by political, economic, and social factors that influence water governance. The pace of technological change in water treatment, distribution, and conservation can improve water systems, but it introduces uncertainty regarding their long-term viability and integration into existing systems.

Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) represents a promising approach to help decision-makers confront such a wide range of unpredictable and variable future conditions. Unlike traditional frameworks that depend on accurate predictions and precise probabilities, DMDU accepts that the future is inherently unpredictable, especially in complex systems like human water systems, and emphasizes adaptive planning that evolves with new information on water supply, demand, and ecosystem health. This session aims to gather scientists to discuss and exchange knowledge of existing and emerging approaches for supporting the design and implementation of adaptive and robust water management strategies under deep uncertainty. We welcome contributions focused on recent methodological advances, including uncertainty and sensitivity analysis, scenario generation techniques, robust optimization, and experiences related to real-world applications.

Water scarcity and management under uncertain future conditions represent significant global challenges that necessitate adaptive, robust, and inclusive adaptation strategies. Climate change is causing increased frequency and severity of extreme weather events such as floods and droughts, making it difficult to predict and manage water resources since historical data is no longer a reliable guide for future conditions. Growing urban populations demand more water and can outpace water infrastructure development, leading to shortages and inequities in water distribution, often exacerbated by political, economic, and social factors that influence water governance. The pace of technological change in water treatment, distribution, and conservation can improve water systems, but it introduces uncertainty regarding their long-term viability and integration into existing systems.

Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) represents a promising approach to help decision-makers confront such a wide range of unpredictable and variable future conditions. Unlike traditional frameworks that depend on accurate predictions and precise probabilities, DMDU accepts that the future is inherently unpredictable, especially in complex systems like human water systems, and emphasizes adaptive planning that evolves with new information on water supply, demand, and ecosystem health. This session aims to gather scientists to discuss and exchange knowledge of existing and emerging approaches for supporting the design and implementation of adaptive and robust water management strategies under deep uncertainty. We welcome contributions focused on recent methodological advances, including uncertainty and sensitivity analysis, scenario generation techniques, robust optimization, and experiences related to real-world applications.