- 1INGV, Rome, Italy
- 2MARVE, Marine Archaeology Research Venice Equipe, Italy
- 3Istituto di Geologia Ambientale e Geoingegneria, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, CNR-IGAG, Rome
- 4Radboud Radio Lab, Department of Astrophysics/IMAPP, Radboud University, 6500GL, Nijmegen, The Netherlands;
- 5Lesia Observatoire de Paris, Université PSL, CNRS, Sorbonne Université, Université de Paris, 92195, Meudon, France;
- 6Center of Integrated Geomorphology for the Mediterranean Area (CGIAM), 85100 Potenza, Italy
The progressive increase of the global mean sea level due to the ongoing climate change is a major topic for safeguarding and developing coastal areas. However, the local sea level rise estimates may differ considerably from the global ones due to different subsidence/uplift rates.
In the framework of a major project investigating the relative sea level rise (RSLR) over several coastal areas of Italy, we present the results for the Venice Lagoon. This area is an exceptional case study since it has been severely exposed to repeated marine flooding throughout history and the subsidence rates are inhomogeneous across the entire Lagoon.
By using GNSS and InSAR data in the period 1996-2023 and 2017-2023, respectively, and assuming a constant subsidence rate, we estimated the Vertical Land Movements (VLM) in 11 key areas across the Lagoon for the years 2050, 2100 and 2150.
The results show that while Venice ancient city is almost stable, the three inlets where the MoSE (Modulo Sperimentale Elettromeccanico) barrier is placed, are undergoing up to 2.9 mm/yr of subsidence. The future sea level rise in the lagoon is then computed by adding the measured cumulated subsidence to the expected global sea level rise released in the 6th Assessment Report (AR6) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6; SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5). This procedure allowed us to evaluate the RSLR in each of the investigated areas in the years 2050, 2100, and 2150 AD. These values have been projected on accurate 1 m resolution Digital Surface Models derived from LiDAR data to realize flooding maps of each area.
By 2150, from 112 (SSP2.6) to 159 (SSP 8.5) km2 of land are exposed at risk of flooding depending on the considered emission scenario.
Finally, considering the highest historical extreme events of high water levels caused by the joint effects of astronomical tides, seiches, and atmospheric forcing, and the new RSLR at 2150, the water level may temporarily increase up to 3.47 m. With this value of SL, up to 65% of land may be flooded. In the lowest area, about 90% of the land will be covered by water (i.e. Chioggia area). This extreme scenario poses the question of the future safety of lowland areas in the entire Lagoon but also of the durability and effectiveness of the MoSE artificial barrier that protects the lagoon from high tides, SLR, and flooding.
How to cite: Trippanera, D., Anzidei, M., Tolomei, C., Alberti, T., Bosman, A., Brunori, C. A., Serpelloni, E., Vecchio, A., Falciano, A., and Deli, G.: Future sea-level rise scenarios: an example from the Venice Lagoon (Italy), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13617, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13617, 2025.
