Development of a lifespan prediction model for river infrastructure using performance degradation curves

A large number of river infrastructure facilities in South Korea have been in operation for over 30 years since their completion, leading to increased aging of these structures. Aging infrastructure not only poses economic risks but also has the potential to threaten public safety. Managing the performance of these facilities through regular maintenance is a critical policy direction for preventing infrastructure-related accidents and promoting economic vitality. This study aims to develop a performance degradation prediction model for river infrastructure facilities, including levees and sluice gates, using safety grades as key indicators. Among the collected visual inspection data, only those with usable safety grades were selected for model development. Given that the structural components of these facilities exhibit diverse characteristics, performance degradation prediction models were applied to individual components to estimate their respective lifespans. The analysis focused primarily on culverts, which exhibited the highest number of defects among various components. The ultimate goal is to predict the overall lifespan of the facilities based on the performance degradation curves of their individual components. This current study provides a quantitative assessment of the impact of regular maintenance on extending the lifespan of river infrastructure facilities.