Orals: Fri, 2 May | Room 2.15
Seasonal streamflow forecasts are a chief tool that enables operators of water-energy systems to deal with uncertainty in future hydro-meteorological conditions. However, our understanding of the actual potential, or value, of streamflow forecasts remains myopic: this is because their value is typically assessed by considering metrics related to hydropower availability, thus overlooking the role played by hydropower dams within the power grid. With the aim of understanding how the value of streamflow forecasts penetrates through the power grid, we developed a coupled-water energy model that is subject to reservoir inflow forecasts with different levels of predictive performance. We implement the modelling framework on real-world case studies in Southeast Asia, where power supply largely relies on hydropower, coal, gas, and cross-border power trading. In particular, we evaluate the forecast value in terms of metrics selected from both reservoir and power systems, including available and dispatched hydropower, power production costs, CO2 emissions, and transmission line congestion. Through this framework, we demonstrate that streamflow forecasts can positively impact the operations of hydro-dominated power systems, especially during the transition from wet to dry seasons. Moreover, we show that the value largely varies with the specific metric of performance at hand as well as the level of operational integration between water and power systems.
How to cite: Galelli, S., Bunnak, P., Eldardiry, H., and Koh, R.: Evaluating Streamflow Forecasts in Hydro-Dominated Power Systems, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7232, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7232, 2025.
The pursuit for alternative water sources is crucial to face the increasingly frequent episodes of drought occurring around the world and to promote circular economy, especially in agriculture, one of the major source of water consumption worldwide. EU governance has recognised reclaimed wastewater (RWW) reuse in agriculture as the key strategy to reduce water sources pressure. Indeed, the new European Regulation 741/2020 on water reuse, come into force in 2023, aims to promote RWW reuse in agriculture. It outlines the minimum quality requirements for a safe water reuse and introduces a 'risk assessment' approach, based on “scientific evidence” , to establish additional requirements, especially for contaminants of emerging concern (CECs). The present study intend to conduct a preliminary evaluation of the possible implementation of the EU Regulation 741/2020 in a selected territory, for the irrigation of edible local crops, assessing the potential reuse of RWW for irrigation, from both the technical and economic points of view. The evaluation was based to the minimum requirements set by the Regulation. Furthermore, the risk assessment due to the presence of selected CECs in the RWW was also conducted. The study was carried in collaboration with) the local Water Service Utility, Acqua Pubblica Sabina (ApS). The strict conjunction with the water utility company provided the needs and issues of the final utilizer, which must be addressed, beside the scientific requirements, to make the RWW reuse technically feasible and sustainable. The selected area for the case study was the Rieti province, in the Lazio region (central Italy), a territory dedicated to agriculture activities with an important economic impact (e.g. olive trees, potatoes and maize).
The study was conducted in several phases. Firstly, the wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) located in the selected area were classified based upon the main characteristics (such as the treatment capacity, layout, produced water quality) and water quality produced with respect to the classes listed by the EU Regulation. Then, the nutrients and water demand of the crops grown in the same area were compared with the nutrients and water potentially available through the RWW from the WWTPs. Furthermore, a preliminary risk assessment was carried out considering only four selected CECs present in the RWW produced by the WWTPs. Combining the quality requirements set by EU Regulation and the results of the preliminary risk assessment, in the investigated territory, there are 17 WWTPs potentially suitable for the irrigation of maize, only 1 plant for potato and 8 plants for olive.
How to cite: Mangiagli, F., Di Marcantonio, C., Martelli, A., Altobelli, F., and Chiavola, A.: Techno-economic preliminary evaluation for the possible application of the EU Regulation on wastewater reuse in agriculture: a case-study, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19907, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19907, 2025.
The rapid proliferation of plastic-covered greenhouses (PCGs) in Morocco’s Souss-Massa region has significantly intensified groundwater depletion, posing severe risks to local water resources and threatening the sustainability of agricultural livelihoods. This study evaluates the evolving water demand driven by agricultural expansion and investigates the role of a desalination plant in mitigating groundwater overexploitation in the Chtouka plain. An integrated methodology combining remote sensing data, CropWat modeling, and field surveys provides a comprehensive assessment of current and future water needs. Landsat and Sentinel-2 satellite imagery spanning 1990 to 2023 was utilized to monitor the growth of PCGs, employing both object-oriented (OB) and pixel-based (PB) classification techniques. The analysis demonstrated that object-oriented classification yielded a high accuracy of 89.35% and a Cohen’s kappa coefficient of 0.78 in 2023, underscoring its effectiveness in mapping PCG expansion. The analysis revealed greenhouse areas of 11,468 hectares in 2015, 19,474 hectares in 2020, and 20,695 hectares in 2023. Projections based on the quadratic trend estimate the greenhouse area will reach approximately 31,658 hectares by 2050, with annual growth rates of 2.06% (2020–2025) and 1.90% (2025–2030), providing a solid foundation for understanding and planning future expansion. On the other hand, the CropWat model further estimated crop irrigation requirements (CIR) under current and future scenarios, emphasizing the vital role of the desalination plant in reducing reliance on groundwater resources. Initially designed to produce 275,000 m³/day, with 125,000 m³/day allocated for agricultural purposes, the plant currently supplies 200,000 m³/day, amounting to 48.62 million cubic meters (Mm³) annually for irrigation. By 2050, desalination output is projected to reach 80 Mm³/year, covering 60% of total crop irrigation requirements. However, as future demand is forecasted to rise to 73 Mm³/year, additional measures will be necessary to close the water deficit. To address the impending shortfall, the study advocates for the adoption of advanced irrigation techniques, the enforcement of stricter groundwater extraction regulations, and the expansion of desalination infrastructure. Additionally, promoting farmer education and training in sustainable water practices is emphasized as a vital component for long-term resource preservation and agricultural resilience.
Keywords : Sustainable water practices, Desalination plant, Crop irrigation requirement (CIR), Plastic-covered greenhouses (PCGs).
How to cite: Aglagal, C., Hssaisoune, M., El hafyani, M., and Bouchaou, L.: Advancing sustainable agricultural water management in agribusiness systems: a case study of the chtouka plain, morocco, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20185, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20185, 2025.
In a world facing the impact of climate change and increasing demands for water and food, the use of non-conventional water (NCW) resources - can contribute to addressing the water supply-demand gap. Such need is critical in the Mediterranean, a region where water scarcity increases the risk of water and land resources degradation. Yet, the adoption of NCW in the region remains limited. Supporting the implementation of NCW resources requires going beyond an assessment of what is technically feasible (i.e., attainable water yields) and shall include considerations for the social, economic and institutional conditions that stimulate or deter the uptake of these solutions. In this study, we present a methodological framework developed within the AG-WaMED PRIMA S2 project to unpack the multiple dimensions associated with the use, management and regulation of NCW. The methodology combines hydrological and socio-economic modelling, 4 participatory workshops, stakeholder interviews, and multi-level governance assessment.
Involving stakeholders is crucial to ensure the social acceptability of the proposed solutions and their successful implementation. In AG-WaMED, the participatory approach was based on the Responsible Research and Innovation (RRI) Roadmap©TM. The methodology is applied in four Mediterranean study areas (Living Labs, LL) in Italy, Spain, Egypt and a transboundary LL between Tunisia and Algeria.
Four workshops were held in each of the four LL. In the first one, the LL was established and the main challenges and solutions related to the NCW were assessed. Based on the outputs, specific models were developed and presented in the second participatory workshop to obtain feedback on potential further analyses. While technical aspects are important, most of the stakeholders’ concerns regard governance and legal aspects. Hence, we dedicated the third participatory workshop to the discussion of the draft of an integrated watershed management plan and improved it according to the feedback received. Finally, in the fourth workshop, we wrap up the activities and try to ensure their continuity in the future.
The whole approach is inspired and embedded into the RRI Roadmap©TM, which is an effective guide to frame the activities of such a complex project. Limitations and further improvements are also discussed. The lessons learned within the co-production approach applied in AG-WaMED project, framed in the RRI Roadmap, exemplifies how it is possible to actively involve stakeholders in sustainable water management.
This research was carried out within the AG-WaMED project, funded by the Partnership for Research and Innovation in the Mediterranean Area Programme (PRIMA), an Art.185 initiative supported and funded under Horizon 2020, the European Union’s Framework Programme for Research and Innovation, Grant Agreement Number No. [Italy: 391 del 20/10/2022, Egypt: 45878, Tunisia: 0005874-004-18-2022-3, Greece: ΓΓP21-0474657, Spain: PCI2022-132929, Algeria: N° 04/PRIMA_section 2/2021].
The content of this abstract reflects the views only of the authors, and the Commission cannot be held responsible for any use that may be made of the information contained therein.
Copyright Notice: The RRI Roadmap©TM methodology and its tools or portions of it are the ownership of XPRO Consulting Limited, Cyprus. All Rights Reserved.
How to cite: Bresci, E. and the AG-WaMED team: Managing unconventional water resources in the Mediterranean: insights from a participatory approach in four Living Labs, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16023, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16023, 2025.
Facing the escalation of extreme climate events, estuarine delta cities like Shanghai grapple with significant water supply challenges. This study employs system dynamics and dynamic adaptive policy pathways to assess Shanghai's water supply security risks and responsive strategies in 2022–2050, amidst extreme climate conditions. Utilizing data from 2000 to 2021, we constructed a system dynamics model to predict future water demand under various development modes. Focusing on the unusual 2022 drought in the Yangtze River Basin, we simulated 15 scenarios, including economy, population, water efficiency, and reservoir levels, to identify the extent and timing of potential water supply risks, then proposed pertinent dynamic adaptive strategies to address them. Our findings suggest that the 2022 drought significantly reduced Shanghai's water supply capacity, leading to a notable deficit. Under scenarios of accelerated economic growth, water supply security risks are heightened, with projections indicating a reduction of days of supply available to merely 33–67 days, and escalating water shortage amount to 592–896 million m3 by 2050. Short-to-medium-term recommendations include optimizing both local and transit water resources, strengthening emergency water reserves, enhancing water use efficiency, and maintaining stable reservoir water levels. For the long term, expanding water storage infrastructure and promoting integrated water resource management within the Yangtze River Delta is key to establishing a resilient and diversified water supply system, effectively mitigating future water security risks. This study provides a scientific basis and reference for the sustainable management of water resources in estuarine cities confronting normalized extreme climate conditions. It offers valuable insights for policymakers and actionable suggestions for urban planners.
How to cite: Fan, H., Cheng, H., Chen, W., Liu, R., Zhou, F., Hu, X., and Zhang, X.: Assessment and strategies for water supply security risks in the estuarine city Shanghai under normalized extreme climate conditions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18607, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18607, 2025.
In the dual context of global energy shortages and decarbonization, increasing the share of clean energy in the power supply is imperative. Hydropower, as a crucial component of renewable energy, often sees its significant potential for power generation during flood periods overlooked. This study aims to enhance the joint power generation of cascade hydropower stations under different typical flood scenarios. Firstly, a multi-scenario water level drawdown method is proposed, providing strong technical support for hydropower stations to utilize flood resources and generate more clean power. Then, typical flood scenarios are selected that take into account the relationship between the basin's flood characteristics and the critical flows specified in reservoir flood dispatch regulations. Further, a flood resource utilization scheduling framework is developed to investigate the joint power generation benefit of cascade hydropower stations adopting different credible forecast times under various operational periods. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) The multi-scenario water level drawdown method can timely lower the reservoir level to the flood control level. (2) Longer credible forecast times don’t always result in better performance, and the appropriate credible forecast time should be selected based on different inflow scenarios to maximize power generation. (3) Through the flood resource utilization scheduling framework, the joint power generation benefit of cascade hydropower stations has increased significantly for 7-1-1 (38.96*104kW·h), 8-3-1 (145.18*104kW·h) and 12-1-1 types flood (351.38*104kW·h).
How to cite: Chang, J., Jing, Z., Wang, X., and Meng, X.: The flood resource utilization of cascade hydropower stations based on the multi-scenario water level drawdown method, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14374, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14374, 2025.
Although crop drought insurances are quite developed and applied in rainfed crops, their extension to irrigated crops is still under development. Among the different options existing, index-based insurances appear as a promising alternative. However, their application in complex water resource systems is hindered by the fact that well-known indicators and indices do not guarantee a comprehensive evaluation of the state of the system. In this regard, Spanish river basins represent an exception, since all of them use systems of indicators and indices that summarize their status on a single metric that condenses meteorological, hydrological and hydrogeological variables. These indices, as well as their formulations, are published in the Water Resource Management Plans of all Spanish river basins, facilitating their reproduction. Despite some recent research has defined index insurance schemes based on them, their evaluation in a climate change context is still missing.
This study estimates the performance of several index-based insurance schemes for irrigated agriculture under a climate change context. To this end, hydroeconomic modelling is combined with a reproduction of the official Scarcity State Index (in Spanish Indice de Estado de Escasez, IES) in climate change scenarios. The Jucar river system in Spain is used as case study. In particular, insurances were built for the lower basin crops (citrus trees). Climate projections come from CMIP6 are employed to force a fully distributed eco-hydrological model to provide hydrological projections (TETIS) and crop modelling to infer future crop water needs (AQUACROP for herbaceous crops and FAO56 combined with a soil water balance model for citrus tree crops). Results from both models are then used to input the hydroeconomic model, which takes into account the current operating rules of the system. Afterwards, the results obtained by this model, together with the ones from the eco-hydrological model and the climate change projections, are combined to reproduce the IES. Finally, index insurance schemes are applied to estimate fair risk premiums, maximum compensations and deductible franchises that would be paid by and to farmers if insurances were purchased. Two insurance schemes were analysed: 1-year insurance characterized by a premium, a deductible franchise and an index trigger; and a 2-year multi-annual contract. The evaluation is done comparing the farmers’ economic balance without and with insurances, analysing the cumulative distribution of net benefits. This analysis, performed for all climate change scenarios, assess which insurance configuration and under which scenarios contribute to the economic adaptation of farmers to climate change.
Acknowledgements:
This study has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the GoNEXUS project (grant agreement No 101003722), and from the RETOUCH NEXUS project, under the European Union’s Horizon Europe research and innovation programme under grant agreement No. 101086522.
How to cite: Macian-Sorribes, H., Valenzuela-Mahecha, M. A., de León Pérez, D., Carricondo-Anton, J. M., Garcia-Prats, A., Frances-Garcia, F., and Pulido-Velazquez, M.: Estimating the potential of index-based insurances for irrigated agriculture in climate change adaptation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13068, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13068, 2025.
In this study, we introduce a novel stochastic exploratory modeling framework to investigate how scenarios conditioned on the Late Renaissance Megadrought and plausible climate changes yield high consequence impacts that propagate throughout California’s complex water system. California has experienced significant cycles of drought extremes over the last century but these extremes do not fully encompass the variability that exists in the paleo record. Moreover, climate change is projected to make California's drought extremes more severe and frequent. The ultimate impacts to system users will be shaped by how climate change co-evolves with natural climate variability and the system’s complex institutional framework that governs water deliveries throughout the state.
This study utilizes a stochastic weather generator, conditioned on tree-ring based weather regime dynamics, to develop a large ensemble of high-resolution, daily weather sequences that capture the extreme drought conditions associated with the Late Renaissance Megadrought (1550-1580 CE). Plausible regional climate changes are superimposed on the weather sequences and then used to force hydrologic models of twelve watersheds that drain into key system reservoirs. The resulting streamflow ensembles are used to force the California Food-Energy-Water System model (CALFEWS), which simulates water storage and conveyance throughout California, to create a stress testing framework that explores user vulnerabilities under megadrought and climate change conditions.
Our results demonstrate that persistent low inflows associated with the megadrought lead to critically low storages at key reservoirs, multi-year periods of curtailed water deliveries, and complete drawdowns of groundwater assets for junior and senior water rights holders. When plausible climate changes are considered, there is an increased frequency of reservoir levels hitting dead pool and complete curtailment of water deliveries. To our knowledge, this is the first stress testing framework that explores the asymmetries in risk faced by California’s two main water projects.
How to cite: Reed, P., Gupta, R., and Steinschneider, S.: Stress Testing California's Water System using an Exploratory Ensemble Analysis Conditioned on the Late Renaissance Megadrought and Climate Change, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2897, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2897, 2025.
Pune, near Mumbai, is India’s is 9th most populated city. As an emerging megacity, Pune is projected to grow from 7.4 to 11.4 million residents by 2050. At that time, a two-year drought under moderate climate change would lead to extraordinary water supply challenges, especially for the urban poor. Without policy interventions by mid-century, the low-income urban population will be unduly affected by water shortages as indicated by a water supply Gini coefficient exceeding 0.4. This inequity occurs as low-income households experience unaffordable water costs (10%-15% of income), and most receive <40 liters per capita per day, typically lasting for over >6 continuous months. Using a coupled human-natural systems model, we explored various measures aimed at alleviating this catastrophe. While many actions are shown to be ineffective, a comprehensive suite of supply-side and demand-side interventions can reduce inequity, cutting the future Gini coefficient in half, and reducing water expenditures from 15% to 5% of income. The single most effective action comes from a water-market structure that enables surrounding agricultural groundwater to be pumped and provided to the city during drought periods. However, further measures are needed to secure this expensive water for the urban poor, as it can be readily captured by wealthy urban households.
How to cite: Gorelick, S., Wang, A., Klassert, C., Karutz, R., Zhu, Y., Smilovic, M., Kahil, T., Burek, P., Zozmann, H., Klauer, B., Kueblboeck, K., Jain Figueroa, A., Wada, Y., and Naylor, R.: Inequities in Water Access: Challenges of an Emerging Indian Megacity, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3003, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3003, 2025.
The forecasting of future stormwater resources serves a pivotal role in gauging the potential effects of stormwater utilization on natural and societal systems. However, there has been limited research on the effect of climate change on future rainwater resources, particularly for large-scale water diversion projects. Based on global climate model data, future land use data and SCS-CN (soil conservation service curve number) model, this study proposed a calculation method of rainwater resources under different SSP scenarios in the future period, and carried out a case study on the cities in the receiving area of South-to-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP). The results show that there will be an increase in the amount of rainfall in the future compared to 2020.The most significant increase in rainwater resources occurs in urban reception areas of the Eastern Route Project (ERP). However, according to future projections, the quantity of rainwater resources in the study area decreases from south to north. The spatial distribution of rainwater resources demonstrates a nearly normal distribution in the eastern and western routes and a bimodal distribution in the Central Route Project (CRP). In the context of global climate change, the increase in rainfall resources in the CRP may be beneficial for the establishment and implementation of the SNWDP. This study can provide a reference for analysing the uncertainty of rainwater resources in the future period under climate change. It can also provide guidance for the construction and develop scheduling schemes of the SNWDP, a world-class water diversion project.
How to cite: Li, Y., Shao, W., Su, X., Liu, J., and Yang, Z.: Assessment of rainwater resources in urban areas of reception basins of South-to-North Water Diversion Project under climate change., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-157, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-157, 2025.
Buildings consume substantial volumes of water during their lifecycle, with the operating phase generally accounting for a significant proportion of total water consumption. Achieving net-zero water buildings is crucial for addressing water sustainability in the built environment. The design of net-zero water buildings is guided by three primary objectives: minimizing total water consumption, maximizing the use of alternative water sources, and reducing wastewater discharge while returning water to its original source. Despite growing interest in this concept, models and frameworks for assessing building water consumption patterns remain insufficient, particularly in addressing the influence of climate change scenarios. This study aims to develop a dynamic system model for building water management, integrating water consumption, alternative water solutions, and return water strategies. The model will also incorporate future climate scenarios to simulate water use under changing environmental conditions, supporting long-term planning and providing design strategies to help architects and engineers integrate net-zero water principles into building projects. The methodology follows a systematic approach. First, the building water model framework is established by identifying and defining key components and variables that influence water use. These elements include water sources (inputs), storage systems, demand patterns, wastewater outputs, and options for alternative and return water solutions, such as rainwater harvesting and greywater recycling. Second, climate scenario simulations are created to assess the impact of climate change on water demand and the availability of alternative water sources. Finally, a dynamic system model is developed using Vensim software to simulate various water use scenarios under different climatic conditions and operational strategies. The expected outcome of this research can serve as a practical tool for building designers, engineers, and decision-makers. The model will provide valuable insights into effective water resource management strategies and support the design of buildings that achieve net-zero water. By integrating dynamic system modeling with sustainable design practices, this research advances net-zero water buildings, paving the way for water-efficient and sustainable urban environments.
How to cite: Wei, C.-M. and Tung, C.-P.: Dynamic System Modeling for Achieving Net-Zero Water Building Design, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2994, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2994, 2025.
Increasing stress on water availability, driven by rising water demand and climate variability, presents a global challenge. By leveraging advanced ensemble streamflow forecasts and conjunctive management, reoperating existing dams with Forecast-Informed Reservoir Operations coupled with Managed Aquifer Recharge (FIRO-MAR) offers a cost-effective strategy to achieve long-term water sustainability. However, the inherent uncertainty in streamflow forecasts introduces associated risks, necessitating consideration of risk perception respective to the forecast uncertainties in real-world operation decisions. Here, we explore to what extent the value of forecasts in FIRO-MAR is sensitive to operators’ risk aversion levels, which can help us better identify specific risk aversion levels that limit the use of forecasts. We develop a multi-objective reservoir model integrated with downstream groundwater conjunctive use to support additional groundwater recharge purposes. We conduct historical (1975-2014) and future (2055-2099) simulations for 1183 flood control reservoirs worldwide with three reservoir operation schemes: a baseline operation, a MAR operation that incorporates conjunctive use, and a FIRO-MAR operation that further employs inflow forecasts. River discharge reforecasts from the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) are used to inform operation policies under varying drought risk aversion levels, represented by selected forecast ensemble quantiles. Our results reveal trade-offs between groundwater recharge and non-recharge objectives, such as hydropower generation, while highlighting synergies in water supply through conjunctive management. Under perfect forecasts, FIRO-MAR can boost the global potential of rechargeable water by approximately 14% compared to MAR alone. However, operational forecast uncertainties diminish these gains variably across regions, influenced by reservoir characteristics and background climate. Notably, forecasts prove to be more valuable for risk-averse operators, though this relationship is constrained by forecast skill and reservoir-specific factors such as inflow-to-storage ratios. Our findings elucidate how operators’ risk attitudes influence the strategic use of forecasts in supporting MAR, offering crucial insights for FIRO-MAR implementations.
How to cite: Chen, H. and He, X.: Impacts of Risk Aversion on Forecast-Informed Reservoir Operations for Managed Aquifer Recharge, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8634, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8634, 2025.
Ensuring safe and sustainable drinking water supplies is a global challenge, particularly in regions reliant on groundwater, where contamination risks are increasing due to human activities. In Estonia, groundwater provides most of the drinking water supply, yet contamination from agriculture, and industry poses significant risks. To address these challenges, frameworks aligned with the EU Water Framework Directive are needed to identify vulnerabilities for groundwater bodies and implement targeted risk management strategies.
Static protection zones have traditionally safeguarded groundwater, but dynamic, data-driven approaches better manage risks by understanding catchment areas and contamination pathways. This study introduces a comprehensive risk assessment methodology designed specifically for Estonia's hydrogeological conditions, focusing on contamination risks associated with drinking water abstraction areas.
Using hydrodynamic modeling (MODFLOW-6) and GIS tools, groundwater flow was calculated to 28-year period to identify catchment areas and link contamination sources with indicators and substances specified in regulations. Conceptual models were developed to help water operators describe the natural chemical composition of drinking water sources and the dynamic characteristics of catchment areas during risk assessments.
The methodology was validated across diverse hydrogeological settings in Estonia. Results show that integrating advanced modeling with stakeholder-driven tools significantly improves the accuracy of risk assessments compared to static approaches. This framework enables targeted management strategies to reduce contamination risks and effectively protect drinking water quality.
By aligning with EU water policies and providing user-friendly tools, this approach offers a scalable solution for similar groundwater challenges elsewhere. Empowering stakeholders ensures long-term water resource protection and sustainable governance.
How to cite: Hunt, M., Pärn, J., Osjamets, M., Kuusma, E., Raidla, V., Hints, L., and Marandi, A.: A Risk Assessment Approach to Drinking Water Safety: Integrating EU Water Policy Principles in Estonia, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9560, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9560, 2025.
This research builds on findings presented at AGU 2024, focusing on “Climate Change Adaptation with Low Impact Development Measures: Assessing the Performance and Cost-Effectiveness of Rainwater Harvesting Systems at Microscale in Barcelona.” It evaluates the effectiveness of Low Impact Development (LID) practices in stormwater management and ecosystem service provision, addressing critical knowledge gaps in life cycle impacts and economic feasibility.
The study aims to: a) compare environmental indicators, b) identify key factors influencing these indicators, c) propose management solutions to reduce environmental impacts using Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), and d) assess the economic benefits of LID practices in terms of reduced long-term revenue needs for stormwater management and lower operational and maintenance costs for current and future infrastructure.
The LCA method evaluates the ecological impacts of three LID strategies: a) Bio-Retention Cells, b) Rain Gardens, and c) Infiltration Trenches. Assessed impacts include global warming potential, ozone depletion, acidification, eutrophication, smog formation, resource depletion, ecotoxicity, and implications for human health. The analysis employs SimaPro software and the CML-IA baseline 3.01/EU25 model, with Monte Carlo analysis ensuring robust results.
This perspective underscores the need to integrate LID practices into urban planning to mitigate environmental impacts associated with stormwater runoff. By combining a life-cycle perspective with advanced analytical tools, it provides actionable insights for sustainable stormwater management and urban resilience. Preliminary findings suggest significant cost savings (15–80%) compared to conventional stormwater management approaches, primarily due to reduced grading, paving, and landscaping costs.
How to cite: Ramezankhani, A., Niakan, S., and D’Alessandro, F.: Evaluating the Environmental and Economic Benefits of Low Impact Development Practices: A Life Cycle Assessment Approach for Stormwater Management in Barcelona, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11673, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11673, 2025.
Fresh water is needed worldwide for agricultural and economic sectors, but also for nature. However, the water demand continues to increase due to economic growth, urbanization and increased food production, while water availability decreases. Thereby, weather extremes are expected to increase and occur more frequently. As a result, there is an increased mismatch between water demand and water supply. Historically, Dutch agricultural fields were drained to remove water in wet periods. Nowadays, drainage systems are increasingly being modified to controlled drainage with subirrigation (CDSI) systems to i) discharge water when needed and ii) retain water and iii) recharge water when possible. However, the implementation of CDSI on a local scale alters several water balance components. CDSI positively affects transpiration for crop growth, increases drainage to the surface water and increases downward seepage, i.e. groundwater recharge. However, CDSI also requires surface water, which is not infinitely available. It is, therefore, important for regional water management authorities to understand how the field scale measure CDSI propagates through the regional water system in order to estimate if sufficient surface water is available to scale up CDSI to other fields.
A system dynamics model (SDM) approach is used to get insight into the hydrological effects of upscaling CDSI. SDM’s are widely used to understand non-linear behavior of complex systems with feedback-driven components in order to make policy decisions for example. Our SDM is a simple, but comprehensive model based on four field experiments conducted in the Netherlands and a detailed calibrated Soil, Water, Atmosphere and Plant (SWAP) model. The results show that the SDM takes account of different feedback loops that determine the possibilities of upscaling CDSI. This includes an increase in drainage to the ditch, but at the same time, subirrigation lowers the ditch level, which in turn reduces drainage to the ditch. The results further show 3 CDSI possibilities: i) sufficient surface water is available to scale up CDSI to 20 % of the area, ii) sufficient surface water is available, but surface water levels decline when scaling up CDSI between 20 – 30 %, iii) insufficient surface water is available to scale up CDSI between 30 – 100 % as the surface water runs dry. In the latter case, hydrological characteristics (regional surface water inflow, regional weir height and minimal surface water level) can be adapted to increase the regional water availability and therefore allow further CDSI upscaling. We show that a SDM is a useful method for an initial design of how a local measure affects the regional water management, which gives the regional management authority insight in the hydrological effects of upscaling measures and therefore supports the conversations between policy makers and stakeholders (e.g. farmers).
How to cite: de Wit, J. A., van Huijgevoort, M., van Dam, J., and Bartholomeus, R.: System dynamics modelling as discussion support tool for upscaling subsurface irrigation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11677, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11677, 2025.
A large number of river infrastructure facilities in South Korea have been in operation for over 30 years since their completion, leading to increased aging of these structures. Aging infrastructure not only poses economic risks but also has the potential to threaten public safety. Managing the performance of these facilities through regular maintenance is a critical policy direction for preventing infrastructure-related accidents and promoting economic vitality. This study aims to develop a performance degradation prediction model for river infrastructure facilities, including levees and sluice gates, using safety grades as key indicators. Among the collected visual inspection data, only those with usable safety grades were selected for model development. Given that the structural components of these facilities exhibit diverse characteristics, performance degradation prediction models were applied to individual components to estimate their respective lifespans. The analysis focused primarily on culverts, which exhibited the highest number of defects among various components. The ultimate goal is to predict the overall lifespan of the facilities based on the performance degradation curves of their individual components. This current study provides a quantitative assessment of the impact of regular maintenance on extending the lifespan of river infrastructure facilities.
How to cite: Kim, S., Park, J., Lee, G., Jang, S., and Shin, J.-Y.: Development of a lifespan prediction model for river infrastructure using performance degradation curves, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14213, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14213, 2025.
Sustainable groundwater management is critical in semi-arid regions, where competing demands from agricultural, urban, and industrial sectors strain water resources. California and Catalonia share a Mediterranean climate, where the peak growing season coincides with the driest months, necessitating significant reliance on stored water for irrigating agriculture. Here, we examine the science-policy interface in groundwater management by comparing Catalonia, Spain, and California's Central Valley—regions possessing similar climatic pressures but having developed distinct regulatory frameworks under differing hydrogeological contexts.
California's Central Valley is characterized by a vast, deep sedimentary aquifer system that supports the largest agricultural economy in the United States. However, over-extraction has led to domestic and agricultural wells running dry, severe land subsidence, and widespread nitrate contamination. In contrast, Catalonia's aquifers are generally smaller, shallower, and are more susceptible to saltwater intrusion from the ocean.
In 2014, California passed the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA), representing a shift towards regulated groundwater use. However, the state’s complex water rights system—featuring separate allocation frameworks for groundwater and surface water—combined with the immense scale of the Central Valley Aquifer system, complicates the effective implementation of SGMA and its goal of sustainable groundwater management. Conversely, Catalonia, guided by the EU Water Framework Directive of 2000, has adopted an integrated approach to groundwater and surface water management within a unified framework that emphasizes public supply and sustainability.
We analyze the contrasting approaches of these two regions to explore what each can learn from the other’s management strategies. For California, Catalonia highlights the importance of treating groundwater and surface water as a single, interconnected resource within a unified regulatory framework. This demonstrates how conjunctive water regulation can improve long-term resource sustainability. Conversely, California’s extensive monitoring networks, basin characterization programs, and advancements in data collection offer valuable tools that could enhance Catalonia’s water management efforts. By focusing on these lessons, we aim to underscore how shared insights can inform more effective water governance in distinct hydrogeological and regulatory contexts.
This comparative analysis highlights the critical role of understanding the hydrogeological context in shaping blue diplomacy policies. It underscores the importance of interdisciplinary approaches, such as leveraging diplomatic tools and scientific expertise to address water security challenges and build resilience to climate extremes in semi-arid regions globally.
How to cite: Gomez-Cervantes, A., Yan, E., Scantlebury, L., Prentice, R., Ondris, K., Magee, B., van der Heijden, R., Grobowsky, K., Chavez, A., Archer, A., Dahlke, H., Harter, T., Yarnell, S., and Pinter, N.: Shared Challenges, Divergent Solutions: Groundwater Management in California and Catalonia, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14284, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14284, 2025.
Over the past decade about one-third of India's districts have experienced more than four droughts. Even large cities like Delhi and Mumbai experience severe water cuts (the most recent in May-June 2024). In rural areas, droughts cause temporary migration, with the most severe effects being felt by the socio-economically marginalised sections of the rural population. With around 55% of the population relying on agriculture, droughts pose a challenge to both water and food security. Moreover, they have significant economic repercussions, with India's GDP reducing by an estimated 2-5% over the past two decades.
There are ongoing efforts to reduce drought risk in India by enhancing storage capacity through new reservoirs, lift projects for domestic and irrigation use, and improved water management practices. However, challenges such as fluctuating seasonal water availability, governance and other socio-cultural issues impact their effectiveness. Traditional water management systems such as tank cascade systems in Telangana (Cheruvulu), traditional springs (Naula), step wells (Baoli) and village ponds (Pokkali) have evolved over centuries to address the diverse climatic, geographic, and socio-economic conditions across the Indian subcontinent. Recent research recognises the value of traditional water management systems and provides evidence on the increase in water access they bring locally. These systems are being revived in some rural areas with the support of local NGOs but there is a limited reach of these initiatives. The revival of decentralised traditional water management systems and their integration into wider centralised water management systems has a high untapped potential to improve overall system resilience by helping diversify water sources. However, there is a need to demonstrate how these two different scales and approaches to water management can be harmonised at the planning and operation stages, and understand the enablers and barriers to maximise synergies in each specific context.
This contribution will present the findings of interviews and participatory workshops with water managers and local communities in Telangana and Uttarakhand states, complemented with a literature review. The findings identify specific challenges related to drought management, the interface between existing centralised and traditional water management systems, and governance. Effective hybrid centralised-traditional water management systems are proposed as a multi-scale system solution to overcome these challenges. This research contributes to improve drought management practices, enhancing community resilience and contributing to sustainable water resource management in the study areas, with potential transferrable learnings for other regions.
How to cite: Momblanch, A., Singh, R., Sen, S., Jain, S. K., and Holman, I.: Reviving traditional water management systems to build resilience to drought in India, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18969, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18969, 2025.
The increasing frequency and duration of droughts due to climate change pose significant challenges to reservoir operators in maintaining a balance between water supply and demand. While ensuring water supply typically requires high reservoir levels to meet consumer demand throughout the year, other objectives such as flood control and maintaining ecological flows require careful management of water releases. Thus, operators need to optimize their operational schedule, which is a challenging task given the uncertainty of weather forecasts and catchment response to precipitation. In addition, this study investigates the application of ensemble optimization using the Northern Reservoir Group of the Ruhrverband in Germany as a case study. Using the RTC-Tools software, two variants of stochastic optimization are compared: cross-scenario optimization and tree-based optimization. A retrospective ensemble forecasting (i.e., hindcast) approach was used using the twelve years with the lowest total runoff from April to October, representing potential drought conditions. The evaluation is based on the operating ratio used by the Ruhrverband, which reflects the accuracy of reservoir control and is already used in practice, underlining the practical relevance of this study. The results show that both methods improve reservoir control under forecast uncertainty; however, tree-based optimization proves to be more suitable for practical application due to its ability to consider decisions at different time steps and its superior performance in ensuring reliable outflows and water supply. By emphasizing practical applicability, this work creates robust solutions in the face of uncertainty.
How to cite: Schimanski, J., Becker, B., Johnen, G., Netzel, F., and Becker, A.: Reservoir group operation under uncertainty: A Ruhr case study for low flow conditions with ensemble forecast optimization, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-21833, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-21833, 2025.
Due to the impact of global climate change and land use changes, the spatiotemporal distribution and water cycle processes of watershed water resources are affected. In order to sustainably manage watershed water resources, it is necessary to accurately assess the available water volume to meet the coordinated management of the watershed’s socio-economic subsystem and eco-environment subsystem. The amount of Bluewater resources (BW) is closely related to the amount of Greenwater resources (GW). BW is directly related to human consumption in the socio-economic subsystem, while GW is used to maintain the health of the ecosystem. A method called the integrated simulation-optimization modeling system (ISOMS) was developed to evaluate adaptive strategies for dealing with the combined effects of climate change and land-use changes. ISOMS not only predicts future hydrological trends under varying environmental conditions but also generates comprehensive risk management plans that incorporate different types of uncertainties, including random and fuzzy factors. The Copula function is introduced to handle the interaction between available BW and available GW. The results showed that: (i) uncertainties in the hydrologic system could result in alterations to the distribution of water resources; (ii) system benefits are, to some extent, affected by land use change and climate change; (iii) the shortage of BW is affected by the level of risk, and the joint risk increases, resulting in an increase in water scarcity; (iv) the planned annual agricultural water consumption is the highest, followed by domestic water consumption, and industrial water consumption is the lowest. Through the results of the model operation, the joint risk assessment and adaptive management of BW and GW in the East River Basin (ERB) under changing environments, as well as the BW allocation plan, are obtained to provide support for scientific and reasonable resource collaborative decision-making and promote the synchronized advancement of the socio-economic subsystem and ecoenvironment subsystem in the ERB.
How to cite: Li, Y.: An integrated simulation-optimization modeling approach for coupled risk management of blue water and green water under changing environmental conditions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1743, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1743, 2025.
The artificial division of administrate regions makes the same river flow through different administrative regions, and water conflicts appear when water resources are insufficient to meet the demands claimed by stakeholders along the transregional rivers. Transregional water resources allocation has become an important means to solve transregional water conflicts. The Rubinstein bargaining model has been successfully applied in solving water conflicts due to its ability to reflect the bargaining power of various stakeholders. However, the above mentioned Rubinstein bargaining model treats the discount factors of various stakeholders with a single fixed value, ignoring the impact of dynamic changes in the discount factor the uncertainty of water resources allocation results caused by the unavoidable incoming water forecast error, which may lead to the imbalance of water resources supply and demand in the actual water resources allocation. this paper proposes a multi-agent Rubinstein bargaining water resource allocation model that considers the forecast error based on the dynamic change of the discount factor. Firstly, This paper establishes a Rubinstein bargaining stochastic model considering the dynamic change of the discount factor and the error of the incoming water forecast; secondly, this paper analyzes the impact of the bargaining rounds, the degree of deviation, the adjustment coefficients on the discount factor, and carries out a comparative study on the Rubinstein bargaining model based on the dynamic and the fixed-value discount factor; Then, this paper investigates the uncertainty of various stakeholder allocation results and the response regularity to the total water resource uncertainty. Finally, seven administrative regions in the Ganjiang River Basin of China were selected as the research subjects. The results show the following: (a) compare with Rubinstein bargaining model based on fixed discount factor, the proposed model based on dynamic discount factor can advance the negotiation round, lower the negotiation, and better balance the economic and social development level among various stakeholders. (b) the water allocated to the seven regions has a normal distribution when inflow forecasting error obeys the normal distribution. (c) The mean and standard deviation of the allocation results have a good relationship with the mean and standard deviation of forecast water resource, thus aiding the stakeholders in making decisions and improving the practical value of the method.
How to cite: fu, J., ding, T., zheng, Y., and he, Z.: Water resources allocation in a transregional river based on a dynamic Rubinstein Bargaining Model, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9715, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9715, 2025.
Addressing techniques on water resources towards sustainability and resilient cities relies on mechanisms that create conditions to foster the initial natural conditions and reduce the gap between human development and environmental necessity. Blue-green infrastructure (BGI) has emerged as a transformative solution for water adaptation, offering ecological, social, and economic benefits over gray infrastructure. Inspirated by natural processes, BGI not only restores environmental equilibrium but also enhances its ecosystem services, such as flood mitigation, water quality improvement, and urban cooling. Adopting blue-green infrastructure not only restores the natural conditions for water resources but also allows the recovery of the natural capital assets – the stock of natural resources – and its ecosystem services. These natural capital’s assets provide ecosystem services that benefit humans and their wellbeing, such as cleaning water, climate regulation, carbon sequestration, pollination, and water availability. However, the comprehension of geospatial indicators and conditions that influence the ecosystem services is a handful knowledge that leads to the implementation of blue-green technologies for water resources management. In a global warming context, characterized by more frequent and severe extreme events, such as floods and droughts, more adaptative and resilient infrastructure for water resources management is required, allowing an interconnected solution that encompass several parts of the society pursuing sustainability and benefit to human and environment. Meanwhile, the advancement in machine learning is also a promising mechanism that can be applied to water resources to handle prominent problems, offering improved decision support systems and often outperforming traditional models. Furthermore, the machine learning algorithms have been successfully used for integrated management of river-reservoir systems and real-time control of sewer systems. Hence, this research aims to develop a machine learning model to assess the impact of various spatial indicators on water ecosystem services. Initially, a random forest analysis is being undertaken to measure the correlation between several spatial indicators (or drivers) and ecosystem services. Some of the spatial indicators are land use, biome, precipitation, evapotranspiration, urbanization, etc. The ecosystem services evaluated in this study are based on the Nature’s Contributions to People (NCP) 6 (water quantity and flow regulation) and 9 (hazard regulation), from Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES). This methodology will be applied to several continental basins worldwide, encompassing diverse conditions. Finally, this approach aims to quantify the influence of key drivers on water resources and guide decision-makers in adopting blue-green infrastructure. By doing so, it seeks to enhance ecosystem services, benefiting both society and the environment.
How to cite: Silva, G., Benso, M., Silva, P., Ballarin, A., Doubleday, N., Krol, M., Morellato, L. P., and Mendiondo, E.: Developing Blue-Green Infrastructure: Advantages and Challenges Through Natural Capital, Ecosystem Services, and Machine Learning, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12729, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12729, 2025.
An integrated framework was developed for supporting water resource allocation in arid inland river basin, focusing on the Heihe River Basin in northwest China. The research addresses the challenge of balancing food security and ecological sustainability under water scarcity. A multi-scale, multi-objective optimization model is proposed to improve water use efficiency and ecosystem resilience while maintaining agricultural productivity. Key components include ecological quality assessment using remote sensing, spatial evapotranspiration estimation, and crop planting structure optimization. The model integrates ecological, water, and food security objectives, showing significant improvements in crop suitability, irrigation efficiency, and downstream ecological health. Then, a decision support system (DSS) is developed to operationalize the framework, incorporating interval, fuzzy, and stochastic programming to address uncertainties and complexities in basin. The DSS provides practical water allocation solutions at regional, irrigation district, and farmland scales, promoting sustainable water use and ecological balance. This research offers a robust approach to managing water resources in arid regions, with implications for addressing climate change and ecological degradation. The findings are relevant for policymakers and stakeholders working toward sustainable development in water-scarce environments. This study contributes to advancements in hydrology, ecosystem science, and water resource management under global environmental change.
How to cite: Zhang, F. and Tang, P.: Decision support for optimal allocation of water resources in arid inland river basin, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10566, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10566, 2025.
Coastal aquifers, situated at the interface of oceanic and hydrologic systems, provide vital freshwater resources for over one billion people. However, these systems are increasingly stressed due to overexploitation, urbanization, and climate change, necessitating innovative solutions to address freshwater scarcity. Offshore freshened groundwater (OFG) represents a promising yet largely untapped resource, but its technological and economic feasibility remains uncertain. This study focuses on evaluating the feasibility of OFG utilization in EU COST Member countries, considering critical criteria such as water quality and treatment requirements, sustainability and resource longevity, infrastructure and logistics, availability of alternative water sources, and site-specific conditions. A comprehensive database was compiled, integrating OFG occurrences, desalination capacity, oil and gas infrastructure, and seafloor properties. An initial assessment was conducted to evaluate technical feasibility, focusing on the proximity of OFG reservoirs to treatment capacity and existing infrastructure. Key findings indicate that the Adriatic Sea offshore Rimini, Italy offers the highest feasibility for OFG utilization, due to the proximity to desalination facilities and existing offshore platforms. Other regions, including southern Spain and Belgium, warrant further exploration to determine their potential for sustainable OFG exploitation. This study provides a regional feasibility assessment and lays the groundwork for more detailed case studies. By addressing technological and logistical challenges, this research contributes to the broader effort to unlock OFG’s potential as a critical resource in water-stressed regions.
How to cite: Wazaz, H., Tschaikowski, J., Thomas, A. T., and Micallef, A.: Unlocking Offshore Freshened Groundwater Potential: Assessing Feasibility in EU COST Member Countries, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19701, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19701, 2025.
