Challenges and opportunities in the harmonization of trigger models for Anticipatory Action; a multi-hazard and multi-agency perspective

Disaster risk financing has seen a transformative approach through Anticipatory Action (AA), designed to reduce shock and impact of multiple hazards on vulnerable population. The core of AA relies on pre-agreed triggering mechanisms, that are built around impact-based forecasts (IBF) and tailored to local contexts, determining when, where, and what interventions are required. While numerous humanitarian actors have adopted AA in the recent years, they often work in silos, employing varying definitions, methodologies, and processes, which complicates and reduces opportunities for collaboration. Additionally, the lack of standardization and transparency in trigger models limits comparability and potential for scaling efforts effectively. 

The ECHO-funded project, led by the Regional Anticipatory Action Working Group (RAAWG) secretariat addresses these challenges by fostering dialogue and coordination among regional actors in Southern Africa. Through stakeholder engagement and technical assessment, the project seeks to harmonize AA trigger methodologies, by developing an inventory of existing frameworks and co-designing a knowledge management platform to enhance information sharing and operational alignment.

Initial results highlight the diverse landscape of AA in the region. The project’s first phase assembled 43 anticipatory action frameworks spanning eight countries and seven hazards, uncovering a mix of hazard-based and impact-based triggers. Funding sources for these frameworks include multilateral mechanisms, pooled funds, and bilateral arrangements, reflecting the diversity of financial arrangements to support AA initiatives. Gaps were noted in accessing comprehensive technical details and past trigger activation data, which is now being addressed through targeted surveys and forms. Stakeholder interviews highlighted growing collaboration, but also the challenges that remain in navigating the various triggers and processes and accessing timely information through an integrated platform. A prototype knowledge management platform was developed and refined based on user feedback, aiming to improve transparency and coordination at both technical and operational levels.  

These characterizations and stakeholders’ insights highlight critical gaps, opportunities for harmonizing trigger methodologies, and pathways for cross-agency collaboration. Building on this work, future research will explore the global landscape of AA through systematic literature review, mapping the current frameworks, assessing the operational maturity and identifying challenges and opportunities for scaling up. These findings will provide a foundation to evaluate and align technical, operational and financial aspects of AA.