Increased efforts are required to develop risk-informed and impact-based early warning systems, which can trigger life-saving early actions. This session focuses on advances in monitoring and impact-based forecasting of drought and rainfall-induced hazards. Heavy precipitation in catchments causes riverine floods or flash floods, erosion, sediment transport, debris flows, and shallow landslides, which may all result in catastrophic risks. Meteorological droughts (rainfall deficit) can lead to hydrological, agricultural, and socio-economic droughts, causing food insecurity and cross-sectoral impacts. For these rainfall-induced and drought-related hazards challenges exist regarding their temporal and spatial predictability. The rapid development of triggering rainfall events, scarce observations, and high variability and non-linearity of physical processes generate significant uncertainty. Also, the co-occurrence and compound effects of multiple hazards has to be understood. Droughts are insidious events, where the timing of the event in relation to the agricultural cycle is essential; thus, multi-timescale skilful forecasts are required. The substantial variability in societal exposure and the intricacies of socioeconomic vulnerability complicate the risk assessment. Valuable insights and best practices from the perspective of both knowledge producers and users will be presented. Contributions include: (1) Methods for translating forecasts into actionable impact-based information, such as risk modeling, inundation mapping, damage modeling, and impact modeling for the representation of societal vulnerability; (2) Action-oriented forecast verification and post-processing techniques to tailor forecasts for early action; (3) Monitoring and nowcasting of heavy precipitation events based on remote sensing to complement rain gauge networks; new direct and indirect observation techniques for the observation of rainfall-induced-hazards, and validation of forecasting approaches; (4) Short-range heavy precipitation forecasting (Numerical Weather Prediction), seamless forecasting strategies, and ensembles for the representation of uncertainties; development of integrated short-range hydro-meteorological forecasting chains and approaches for predicting rainfall-induced hazards in gauged and ungauged basins; (5) Understanding and modeling of surface water floods, flash floods, geomorphic processes, impacts, and their cascading effects, at appropriate space-time scales.
Novel monitoring and impact-based forecasting approaches for anticipatory action against drought and rainfall-induced hazards
Co-organized by NH14
Convener:
Marc van den Homberg
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Co-conveners:
Tim BuskerECSECS,
Olivier Payrastre,
Shinju Park,
Andrea Ficchì,
Stefan Schneiderbauer,
Marta GiambelliECSECS