Droughts in South East Europe (SEE): recent tendencies, existing tools and regional initiatives

A broad variety of research indicates that climate change has intensified and extended meteorological droughts across parts of Europe, with southern European regions experiencing particularly severe impacts (IPCC, 2012). The majority of SEE countries are experiencing an increase in drought severity and frequency according to a broad plethora of research. The most commonly used drought indicators by regional experts are meteorological drought indexes such as SPI, SPEI, and PDSI, as well as more specific parameters like the maximum seasonal dry spell (DS), SGI, specific discharge and SRI indexes, vegetation stress parameters. Impact-based assessments, including yield reduction, crop damage, and total economic loss, are also employed. In general, most results are coherent in their conclusions and indicate negative trends, showing an increase in aridity associated with both temperature increases and a lack of precipitation, except in some subregions in Croatia and Bulgaria.

The number of publications devoted to droughts varies greatly by year and country. The maximum publication activity on drought index dynamics was reached in the late 2010s. Over the last five years, there has been a shift to impact-based approaches by major crop types. Serbia, Slovenia, and Romania have had the highest number of publications focused on droughts across the SEE region during the last 15 years, covering all three types of droughts (meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological) not only by calculated indexes but also by impacts. The most underrepresented countries are Albania, North Macedonia, and Montenegro. In this overview, an average area under the “alert” class of CDI was calculated for each SEE country for 2012-2024 to illustrate the general picture. The country-scale signatures show major familiarity in drought-prone areas over the period. After the catastrophic drought in 2012, followed by a drop and plateau (until 2018), steady growth in the area under “alert” is observed, reaching 8-25% in 2023-2024.

To enhance the development and support of drought risk management tools and policies, DMCSEE was launched in 2009. Since 2010, regional bulletins have been issued on a monthly basis. To mitigate drought impacts and increase awareness, national drought monitors are urgently needed in the region due to the major role of agriculture and significant vulnerability. However, dynamically updated Drought Monitors and national Drought Early Warning Systems (EWS) are currently under development in Slovenia, Croatia, Serbia, and Romania. The operational stage has been achieved at the national level only in Croatia and partly in Romania and Slovenia. An AI-driven and impact-based EWS with medium-range lag time is a promising solution for dynamically updated platforms at the regional scale.