Addressing Water Risks in southern Africa: A Participatory Multi-Criteria Approach for Flood and Drought Resilience

In the Cuvelai-Cunene and Limpopo River Basins, rapid urbanization, climate change, and economic instability exacerbate existing water challenges, affecting ecosystems and communities reliant on agriculture and water resources. Both basins are particularly vulnerable to floods and droughts, with local communities’ livelihoods directly influenced by climate variability. Our research addresses these challenges through a participatory multi-criteria decision approach (MCDA) in order to assess vulnerability and risk for a customised management to enhance water security. Furthermore, it contributes to further develop research methods of MCDA risk assessment. 

This work is part of the project “Co-Design of a Hydrometeorological Information System for Sustainable Water Resources Management in Southern Africa (Co-HYDIM-SA)”, under the Water Security in Africa (WASA) Programme, which aims to enhance water security across Southern Africa. The central component of the project is the development of a co-designed hydro-meteorological information system (CUVEWIS), which will provide reliable, tailored risk assessments to support decision-making, with a focus on hydrological forecasting and the management of hydrological extremes.

Our work package employs a comprehensive assessment framework based on three risk factors: hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. Our methodology integrates co-production of knowledge with stakeholder input to develop spatial risk and vulnerability maps, and actionable information to mitigate climate-driven water risks. Data sources include satellite imagery, socio-economic statistics, and local expertise to construct region-specific risk and vulnerability indicators. A multi-criteria decision-making approach refines these indicators and assesses stakeholder perspectives, reflecting local insights, demands and needs regarding risk and risk information use. This synthesis of diverse data and stakeholder input, incorporating a human component within measured and modelled datasets, supports the development of the hydro-meteorological information system through context-specific, adaptive, and integrated risk management.

This research aligns with the UN 2023 Water Conference’s call to accelerate Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) through strengthened cooperation and integrated water resource management. It supports SADC Regional Strategic Action Plan V’s themes on water resources management by identifying regional risk hotspots, generating context-specific data for CUVEWIS, and developing foundational tools for operational forecasting and climate adaptation. Our participatory approach not only enhances socio-hydrological understanding but also strengthens regional capacities for risk management and sustainable, climate-resilient water resource management. Furthermore, this work is a valuable contribution to the IAHS's new decade initiative HELPING, which highlights the co-production of knowledge with stakeholders as a cornerstone of hydrological research.

Key words: Risk assessment, vulnerability, flood, drought, multi-criteria decision approach.

Acknowledgement: The WASA programme in Germany was launched under the leadership of the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF), with the collaboration of six additional federal ministries and their respective institutions.