Orals: Mon, 28 Apr | Room 3.16/17
New global challenges, such as the intense desire for development and climate change, can exacerbate water conflicts among stakeholders (at local, regional, national, and international levels). Discourses and narratives produced by the media, alongside objective factors, play a decisive role in shaping water interactions, a topic that has received less attention. The primary objective of this study is to examine the impact of media on transboundary water interactions. The use of media to advance the interests of states within a basin often strengthens the potential for water conflicts. Therefore, constructive changes in water diplomacy and conflict transformation require an understanding of the media's role in water cooperation and disputes. This understanding is essential for shaping the water policies of riparian countries.
How to cite: Mianabadi, H., Farzaneh, F., Andik, B., and Ghadimi, S.: The role of media in shaping the hydropolitical interactions in the transboundary basins, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20601, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20601, 2025.
The hydraulic mission, once considered a cornerstone of development in developed countries, is now largely viewed as outdated due to its environmental consequences. Despite these drawbacks, this approach persists as a socio-economic development strategy, particularly in the Global South, often intertwined with water nationalism and nation-state building. While political economy and geoeconomic perspectives explain the continued pursuit of the hydraulic mission, this paper proposes an additional interpretation. Specifically, certain dams constructed in upstream riparian states—often less developed and economically disadvantaged compared to their downstream counterparts—acquire symbolic significance, becoming potent emblems of national pride and fostering strong communal bonds. Analyzing these dams through a political sociology lens, we argue that these extraordinary infrastructures are perceived as a solution for countries grappling with a feeling of relative deprivation. This feeling is not merely objective; it is a historically constructed one, rooted in perceived injustices and inequitable resource distribution, and deeply embedded within the social structure. These social forces intertwine with transboundary water politics, wherein the hydraulic mission becomes an instrument for overcoming this perceived relative deprivation. This dynamic also manifests in the hydropolitical discourse of affected states, narratives of entitlement over the ownership of transboundary waters emerge. These narratives often claim that shared water resources have fueled the development of downstream states while upstream states have been unjustly deprived, and consequently, that upstream development through withholding and diverting transboundary water can achieve parity. This pattern can be observed in hydraulic infrastructures such as the Rogun Dam, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, and the Kamal-Khan Dam. These examples share similar characteristics: upstream states are typically less developed than their downstream states, have experienced historically coerced zero-sum cooperation, or a deficiency of development stemming from prolonged conflict. These dams often have unique features that make them exceptional, such as immense storage capacities that take decades to fill or deliberate water diversions that alter the river course. While prior analyses have acknowledged the subjective dimensions of the hydraulic mission, including identity, discourse and political values, a political sociology approach highlights the impact of relative deprivation as a driving force behind hydraulic mission. This feeling explains the politicization and securitization of water discourse, which frame the elimination of deprivation and the achievement of parity as essential. It also explains nation-state building and polarized identity formation. The specific characteristics and intentional impacts of these dams, serving as emblems of national pride and dignity, are also explained by the theory of relative deprivation. Furthermore, responses to relative deprivation can lead to transboundary water conflicts as incompatibilities emerge over resource control, endangering the water security and environmental stability of downstream states, and potentially leading to further political instability. Therefore, it is imperative to recognize, especially when upstream nations in a transboundary river basin are politically, socially and economically disadvantaged compared to downstream states, that the hydraulic mission should be understood not just in terms of socio-economic development, but also as a mechanism for addressing and alleviating a deeply ingrained feeling of relative deprivation.
How to cite: Mamasani, P., Jafari, M., Mianabadi, H., and Ghadimi, S.: A political sociology perspective on the hydraulic mission in the Global South, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19724, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19724, 2025.
Over the past five decades, the mismanagement of water resources and the overexploitation of surface and groundwater resources have accelerated a process of “anthropogenic drought” leading to “water bankruptcy”, with repercussions spanning environmental, socioeconomic, and political spheres. Perhaps the most significant shortcoming in Iran’s water management during this period has been the failure to establish effective water governance based on principles of sustainable development. This is in part due to over-reliance on a top-down technocratic approach within the governance system, as well as by reactive strategies rather than proactive ones, among other factors. Consequently, the country has witnessed a surge in socio-political conflicts over recent decades, manifesting in various forms and scales. Another underlying cause of this issue is the inefficiency of water resource management and systemic corruption that can limit the benefit of science-informed decisions and plans. This has led to the development of solutions that place disproportionate emphasis on technical aspects, while overlooking other critical factors such as socio-economic, organizational, institutional, legal, political, hydro-political, and environmental dimensions. Socioeconomic changes during this period, combined with other external factors like climate change, have placed additional pressures on policymaking for water resource management. For instance, efforts to achieve self-sufficiency in agricultural production in pursuit of food security have widened the gap between available renewable water resources and the demands required to meet such ambitious goals. These issues have even contributed to escalating hydro-political tensions between Iran and its neighboring countries over shared transboundary water resources. In summary, the issues arising from five decades of water governance and management can be attributed to inefficient policies driven by a lack of a holistic perspective on natural resources, top-down governance, systemic corruption, unresolved transboundary water-related challenges, the absence of an interdisciplinary approach and well-defined institutional mechanisms to address these interconnected water issues. Therefore, an effective solution to Iran’s water bankruptcy, is that policymaking must move toward institutional reforms that embrace dynamic, integrated perspectives considering the climate-water-food-energy nexus grounded on actionable science and polycentric stakeholder engagement.
Keyword: Integrated Water Resources Management, Sustainable Development, Water Governance, Water Bankruptcy.
How to cite: Rahimi, M., Jalali, M., Zolghadr-Asli, B., AghaKouchak, A., and Mirchi, A.: Water Governance and Policymaking in Iran Over the Last Half-Century: Inefficiencies and Shortcomings, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1308, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1308, 2025.
Climate change is anticipated to alter the frequency and intensity of climate extremes, with profound implications for vulnerable regions such as the Caspian Sea. This study investigates future changes in extreme precipitation events over the Caspian Sea, a region particularly sensitive to climatic shifts due to its geographical position and isolation from major oceans. Using bias-corrected precipitation data from the General Circulation Models- Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 and historical reference data from ERA5, this research applies advanced extreme value analysis to examine trends under two climate scenarios. The results reveal an increase in average precipitation from the historical period to the future period (1980-2100), highlighting the region’s vulnerability to climate change. Furthermore, the analysis projects a rise in the frequency and magnitude of extreme precipitation events, with more intense droughts and floods expected to emerge. Extreme value distributions fitted to the precipitation data confirm these findings, showing higher tail probabilities for extreme events under future scenarios. These changes underscore the need for climate adaptation strategies to mitigate potential socio-economic and ecological impacts. By providing a comprehensive evaluation of precipitation extremes and their future trends, this study contributes valuable insights into the expected hydrological changes in the Caspian Sea region, which can inform water resource management, disaster risk reduction, and climate policy.
How to cite: Olbert, I. A. and Moradian, S.: Future Extreme Precipitation Trends under Climate Change over the Caspian Sea , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17800, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17800, 2025.
This study examines the relationship between agricultural practices, land abandonment, and the generation of dust storms in the transboundary Tigris and Euphrates River Basin (TERB) from 2000 to 2021.
Problem Statement: Dust storms have emerged as a significant concern in the Middle East, driven by both droughts and anthropogenic activities, particularly in the context of land and water management. These dust storms inflict damage on infrastructure, diminish agricultural productivity, and pose considerable health risks within transboundary river basins. The objective of this study is to identify the underlying drivers of dust storm source generation, with a specific emphasis on the impact of farming patterns and land abandonment following the cropping season.
Methodology: The research integrates spatio-temporal maps that depict land susceptibility to dust storms with agricultural land-use change maps. For this, satellite data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) were utilized to identify sources of dust storms. Additionally, machine learning algorithms were employed, incorporating hydrological, topographical, and climatic variables to create dust storm susceptibility maps. Land use and land cover (LULC) data were categorized into bare ground, single cropping, double cropping, and other vegetative types. The study subsequently analyzed the correlations between dust storm sources, land susceptibility, and LULC, focusing on how agricultural practices and land abandonment contribute to the generation of dust storm sources.
Results and Discussion: The analysis indicated a significant correlation between highly susceptible land and an increase in bare ground. The majority of identified dust sources were located on bare ground. Areas designated for single cropping exhibited a higher susceptibility to dust storms compared to those allocated for double cropping. The findings also revealed that annual rainfall has a substantial impact on the percentage of bare ground and the prevalence of dust sources, often with a delay of one year. For example, increased rainfall in 2018 resulted in a decrease in bare ground and dust sources in 2019, while reduced rainfall in 2020 contributed to an increase in bare ground and dust sources in 2021. Although land abandonment following cropping demonstrated a significant potential for dust storm source generation, the conversion of bare ground to cropland effectively lowered dust storm susceptibility, suggesting an inverse relationship between cropping intensity and land vulnerability to dust storms. The results further illustrated that lands that alternate between cropping and fallow periods or are abandoned after cropping are more prone to wind erosion and dust generation.
Conclusion: This study underscores that climate variability and human activities, particularly agricultural practices and land abandonment, are the principal factors influencing dust storm source generation in the TERB. The research emphasizes the critical importance of maintaining year-round vegetation cover, particularly in double cropping systems, as a means of mitigating dust storms. The conclusion drawn from this study advocates for the implementation of sustainable land and water management practices to reduce vulnerability to dust storms, and it calls for further research to explore transboundary water and land management strategies aimed at mitigating the impacts of dust storms.
How to cite: Hashemi, H., Abdi, A. M., Naghibi, A., Zhao, P., Brogaard, S., Torabi Haghighi, A., and Mansourian, A.: From Cropland to Dust Source: Land Use Dynamics and Water Management in the Tigris-Euphrates River Basin, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4676, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4676, 2025.
53% of the world’s large lakes have shrunk and major rivers have been disappearing around the globe for the past 28 years, due to climate change and anthropogenic activities, causing global security issues. Currently, there are 2.3 billion people in water-stressed countries, 2.2 billion people without access to safe drinking water, 3.5 billion people without access to safely managed sanitation, and 2.2 billion people without handwashing facilities, as indicated in UN SDG statistics. These problems increase conflicts between neighboring states. The Pacific Institute’s annual Water Conflict Chronology report indicates (as cited in Forbes, August 23, 2023) that there were “347 instances of water-related armed conflict in 2023, compared to 231 in 2022”. Limited cooperation between countries has become a trigger mechanism for breaking out such conflicts. According to the UN Water Conference Press Release (2023), 60% of the freshwater flows in the transboundary rivers and lakes and approximately 3 million reside in these wetlands. However, approximately 60% of the basins sharing transboundary waters lack cooperative frameworks to share water states say scientists from the University of Missouri. Finally,UNDP report also states that half of the world’s transboundary waters still lack an operational cooperative arrangement and that there is an urgent need to support countries to develop the capacity to sustainably manage shared waters as the world approaches 2030. Hence, the Caspian Sea Basin has been growing exponentially since 2015 and has reached a record low level of water in the sea, threatening the region with similar socio-economic and security risks. Therefore, an urgency for improved cooperation has emerged as a need for a water diplomacy framework application and practice in the shared waters of the Caspian Sea Basin as well. M. Climes et al., (2019) define, “ Water diplomacy as an approach that enables a variety of stakeholders to assess ways to contribute to finding solutions for joint management of shared freshwater resources.” (Introduction sec.) Thus, the purpose of this article explores the ways the water diplomacy approach impacts the regional water security in the shared water basin amidst climate change in the Caspian Sea Basin. The author looks at five indicators of water diplomacy that impact foreign policy and water management in the Caspian Sea Basin: political, cooperative, preventive, integrative, and technical.
The research applies a qualitative approach. The interview questions will analyze the attitudes, opinions, and behaviors of actors such as politicians, governors, technical water experts, industries, and farmers on the Sea Basin coastlines. (small, medium, big) in Azerbaijan, Georgia (Kura River), and Russia (Volga River). In addition, desktop research will analyze the existing data and research, regulatory documents, and international conventions. The paper aims out how the five indicators political, cooperative, preventive, integrative, and technical have influenced the level of water in the transboundary rivers flowing through Georgia throughout time throughout the past 10 years. The findings will help to understand the key bottlenecks of the current cooperation in the Caspian Sea Basin and provide further recommendations for improving cooperation among the riparian countries in the basin.
How to cite: Baghirova, N. and Safarov, E.: Role of transboundary river cooperation in addressing the challenges of the water basin security., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20388, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20388, 2025.
The interplay between water and agriculture is central to transboundary regions' socio-economic stability and food security, especially under the intensifying impacts of climate change. This study focuses on the water-food-energy-environment (WEFE) nexus between Syria and Jordan in the transboundary Yarmouk River Basin, highlighting the challenges, opportunities, and cooperative strategies required to address a warming climate. Water resources in the Yarmouk River Rasin are critical to both countries as they contribute massively to agricultural production. However, climate variability, political instability, and unsustainable resource management have exacerbated water scarcity, threatening agricultural resilience and regional stability.
This study utilizes the Excel-based IGain4Gains nexus model alongside data on near-future (2025-2050) water resources, usage, and consumption to analyze WEFE synergies and trade-offs in the Yarmouk Basin. Three scenarios for river basin management are explored: business as usual, climate-intensified competition (focused on improving irrigation efficiency and expanding irrigated areas), and climate-resilient cooperation (emphasizing enhanced irrigation efficiency, maintaining current irrigated areas, and increasing transboundary water flows to Jordan). The scenario outputs were validated through stakeholder consultations, providing insights into sustainable transboundary cooperation pathways based on equitable nexus benefits and trade-offs between upstream and downstream users.
The findings highlight that climate-resilient cooperation is the most effective approach to mitigating risks and promoting stability. Key recommendations include implementing water-saving technologies like precision irrigation and wastewater reuse, alongside strengthening institutional frameworks for joint water governance. Advancing adaptation efforts requires regional and international collaboration through targeted funding, capacity building, and knowledge exchange, ensuring policies are aligned with climate-resilient priorities for sustainable resource management.
How to cite: Al-Zu’bi, M. and Amdar, N.: Navigating Syria-Jordan WEFE Nexus: Scenarios and Pathways for Sustainable Transboundary Cooperation in the Transboundary Yarmouk River Basin , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1945, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1945, 2025.
Upstream and regional regulation of the natural flow in the transboundary river basins can place certain parties at a disadvantage, resulting in socioeconomic and environmental challenges. These challenges can lead to asymmetric relationships and even geopolitical issues. The Aras River Basin, a transboundary river shared by Turkiye, Armenia, Iran, and Azerbaijan, has been affected by the regional water development under the DAP mega-project in Turkiye in recent years. To evaluate the impact of the implementation of this project on the Aras River Basin, the inflow to the Aras Dam, a dam located between Iran and Azerbaijan, and drought conditions in the basin were analyzed using the Pettitt test alongside drought indices like SPI, SPEI, and MSDI. Furthermore, to assess spatial/temporal changes in hydrometeorological variables, two non-parametric methods, including the modified Mann-Kendall method (MK3) and Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA), were applied. The results revealed a concerning trend in the Aras River Basin, characterized by decreasing inflow to the dam, no observable trend in precipitation, and rising temperatures. The Pettitt test identified a significant change point in 1995, after which the mean annual inflow to the dam dropped by approximately 800 million cubic meters (MCM), stabilizing around 3,700 MCM. A comparison of monthly mean values before and after this change point indicated that the greatest reduction occurred in May, the period of peak inflow to the dam. The analysis of drought indices further revealed that while precipitation deficits in the late 1990s significantly impacted inflows to the dam, the river has experienced drought conditions in recent years despite adequate precipitation. While climate change and global warming have influenced river flow in the Aras River Basin, the decline in annual mean inflow to the dam closely corresponds to the combined capacity of reservoirs operated by Turkiye after 1995. With the completion and operation of additional dams currently under construction or planned, the inflow to the Aras Dam is projected to decrease further, potentially falling below 1,500 MCM. The declining inflow to the Aras Dam could significantly impact the livelihoods of people in Iran and Azerbaijan living near the river, as well as for local communities. These impacts may lead to socio-economic and geopolitical challenges, like those observed in Syria and Iraq. Moreover, the reduced flow in the Aras River decreases inflow to the Caspian Sea, contributing to falling water levels, ecological degradation, and adverse impacts on regional economies and livelihoods.
How to cite: Sharifi Garmdareh, A. and Gohari, A.: The Role of the Turkish Water Project in Altering Water Availability in the Aras River Basin, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6415, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6415, 2025.
Water, energy, and food challenges in Central Asia are critical issues, particularly in transboundary river basins like the Amudarya river, where competing demands for limited water resources exacerbate environmental and socio-economic pressures. In Central Asia, e.g. Amudarya river is essential basin for sustainable agriculture in downstream countries like Uzbekistan, which faces significant threats from upstream development projects such as the construction of Rogun Dam in Tajikistan and Qosh Tepa canal in Afghanistan. These ongoing projects are anticipated to decrease water flow significantly, which could severely affect for irrigation systems, increasing energy demands for pumping, and place considerable pressure on agricultural productivity and socio-economic stability. The work presented here aims to integrate water and energy system models to explore water-energy interactions and find sustainable solutions under different scenarios for changes in climate, land, energy and water resources. We use IRENA Flextool for energy and couple it with CWatM and Open Global Glacier Model as hydrological and glacial models, respectively. The presentation will present the current phase of water and energy system analysis of the selected region in Central Asia as well as the current development of model integration. The modelling approach is guided by transboundary case studies from the Tajikistan and Uzbekistan region where transboundary water and energy resources management are characterized by potentially different priorities upstream and downstream countries. The energy system models looks at the operations for power production and is used for planning investments in technologies to support the energy transition in the regions. Hydropower operations are, and will be, strongly influenced by the water availability e.g. precipitations, glaciers, and specific river basins have been selected to assess their operations while integrating an increasing amount of variable renewable energy sources. The water demand, mainly driven by the agricultural activities in Uzbekistan, is dependent on the water available and released from the upstream, both affecting the hydropower production and the transboundary relations. The local and regional setting analysis provides the basis for scenario development on future climate land, energy and water. These water and energy management settings are discussed by examples from the region with the focus on the nexus between water, energy and land.
How to cite: Klöve, B., Louis, J.-N., Shukurov, E., Rafipour, M., Bamgboye, T., Abdurafikov, R., and Kiviluoma, J.: Analysis of water balance and energy system status in Central Asia for improved modelling in transboundary river basins , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4846, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4846, 2025.
Water security is essential for sustainable development in transboundary river basins, and increasing water scarcity puts pressure on transboundary cooperation and regional development, especially in arid and semi-arid areas. A linear model of science and policy relations and the absence of society in this interface are obstacles to addressing socio-ecological challenges. With a case study of the Central Asian region, this research explores how science-policy-society interactions can be improved to address water security in the transboundary basins. The study synthesizes previous research on water security and aims to identify barriers to science-policy-society interaction. The scientific literature raises the climate risks and the environmental aspects of water security, highlighting nature-based solutions and the need to account for ecosystem services. Policymakers are developing strategies and programs to ensure water security at the national level, mainly through technocentric policies that prioritize infrastructural solutions. The challenge is not only to bridge the gap between science and policy but also to involve society in this interface, which remains largely unexplored. Building community resilience at the local level is critical, as communities will face the consequences of water and climate inactions. Addressing communication and engagement gaps, improving the capacity of knowledge brokers and knowledge synthesisers, and co-producing water solutions are essential for sustainable and inclusive policies to address water security challenges at different levels. Not only political and socio-economic developments and climate variability in the region but also the interaction between science, policy and society will influence whether the countries of the Aral Sea basin can ensure water security in the region and build resilience or whether countries move towards securitising water resources for national interests.
How to cite: Assubayeva, A.: Science-policy-society interface for water security in Central Asia, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18642, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18642, 2025.
Managing transboundary water resources presents a complex challenge, shaped by diverse interests, governance structures, and socio-economic contexts across political and geographic boundaries. The contrasting conditions between Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan call for tailored, context-specific strategies rather than universal solutions. From 2023 to 2024, researchers conducted an extensive eleven-month stakeholder consultation across various sectors in both countries. This process engaged local, national, and regional partners and institutions to identify, analyze, and categorize stakeholders based on attributes such as power, interest, influence, gender, expectations, roles, sectoral backgrounds, and networks.
The study aimed to foster transboundary water collaboration and enhance decision-making in the Naryn and Kara Darya Basins, where shared water resources pose significant challenges. The findings underscore the need for a collaborative, inclusive, and participatory approach to effectively address these challenges. By emphasizing sustainable water governance and strengthening regional cooperation, the approach seeks to resolve historical frictions, build resilient partnerships, and ensure the equitable and sustainable management of shared water resources in Central Asia.
How to cite: Gafurov, Z., Al-Zu'bi, M., Kenjabaev, S., and Holmatov, B.: Fostering Collaboration for Transboundary Water Governance: Insights from Stakeholder Engagement in the Naryn and Kara Darya Basins, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18915, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18915, 2025.
Afghanistan contains an irrigated area of approximately 3 million ha, with the remainder consisting of rainfed regions. Agriculture, as the primary consumer of water resources, contributes significantly to the national GDP. The irrigated area undergoes variation from year to year, depending on the availability of water. To understand the variations in actual water consumption by the agriculture sector, it is vital to assess the long-term spatiotemporal variations in actual evapotranspiration (AET) across the country. This study assesses the long-term variation in AET (1983-2023) and its implications for water resource management under changing climate. Utilizing the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM) v4.1 dataset, this study investigates long-term AET trends and their relationship with precipitation. Employing statistical methods such as the Mann-Kendall trend test and Spearman's correlation, the study determines the relationship between AET and precipitation over time. The findings emphasize critical seasonal and spatial patterns, with regions such as the eastern and northeast parts of Afghanistan, AET has increased significantly over time, while in the southern and southwest regions, AET has declined, exacerbated by recurrent droughts. Furthermore, a decline in AET was observed in October in the Northern River Basin and in August in the Harrirod-Murghab River Basin, while an increase was noted in March and May in the Panj-Amu River Basin. Correlation analyses revealed intricate interactions between precipitation and AET, influenced by factors such as groundwater extraction and soil moisture dynamics. A positive correlation was identified between AET and precipitation in northeastern and central regions, while a negative correlation was observed in southwestern and southern areas. These findings provide a foundation for the development of sustainable water management strategies tailored to Afghanistan's distinct hydrological and climatic conditions, offering broader applications for arid and semi-arid regions facing similar challenges.
How to cite: Akhtar, F., Tischbein, B., Borgemeister, C., Azizi, A. H., and Awan, U. K.: Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Longterm Actual Evapotranspiration in Afghanistan, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9398, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9398, 2025.
Keywords: Climate change; CWATM; OGGM; Vakhsh River Basin, Aral Sea
This paper presents a coupled large-scale glacier and hydrological and water resources model for scenario-based analysis of possible river regime alteration under climate change. The proposed framework utilizes the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM) v1.5.3 and the large-scale Community Water Model (CWatM) V1.08. The coupled model integrates glacier dynamics, precipitation, temperature, and runoff to predict streamflow and water storage changes by 2100. The analysis focuses on the Vakhsh River Basin, a key tributary of the Amu Darya, one of Central Asia's most significant transboundary rivers. This basin encompasses the Pamir Mountains and the Fedchenko Glacier, the largest glacier in the world outside the polar regions. The Pamir Mountains provide water to the arid region extending to the Aral Sea and help mitigate seasonal water shortages by melting snow, glaciers, and permafrost. However, the impact of climate change on the Pamir cryosphere remains poorly understood due to a lack of measurements in the past several decades. Our findings underscore the importance of considering glacier dynamics in water resource management, especially under future climate extremes, and suggest strategies for sustainable management in glacier-fed basins. The uncertainties in glacier-sourced runoff associated with inaccurate precipitation inputs highlight the need for the continued attention and collaboration of glacier and hydrological modeling communities, emphasizing the urgency of this research. The study provides valuable insights into potential changes in inflow to the under-construction Rogun Dam in Tajikistan. The findings are expected to aid in addressing future operational conditions of existing reservoirs, such as Nurek and Sangtuda, located downstream of the Rogun Dam, and assess water availability for irrigation in downstream countries.
How to cite: Rafipour Langeroudi, M., Klöve, B., and Torabi Haghighi3, A.: Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources: Coupling Glacier and Hydrological Models for the Vakhsh River, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-689, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-689, 2025.
The Seawater transfer to Central Iran illustrates the challenges of balancing between industrial development and natural resource management. This water transfer project addresses water scarcity by providing a new water source, supporting industries, and boosting regional GDP through short-term gains like job creation and socioeconomic development. However, they introduce new constraints as the region becomes dependent on transferred water, and competition for limited water resources intensifies between industry and agriculture. Over time, this can cause environmental degradation, such as soil and water pollution, and pose risks to food security and rural livelihoods. These challenges highlight the importance of managing such projects focusing on long-term sustainability and equitable resource allocation to avoid economic and social instability in both the donor and recipient regions. The study examines the water, energy, and carbon footprints of seawater transfer to industrial and domestic sectors in Central Iran, assessing its environmental, operational, and sustainability impacts. Results indicate significant spatial heterogeneity in resource efficiency among regions. Iron and steel industries demonstrate larger water footprints than copper industries, highlighting disparities in water efficiency. Energy and carbon footprints (EF and CF) align strongly, with Sarcheshmeh exhibiting the highest EF (515,084.63 kWh) and CF (13.22 kg CO₂ eq), while Dar Alu exhibits the lowest values, emphasizing its energy efficiency. Sustainability assessments reveal that Dar Alu (0.94) achieves high efficiency, reliability, and minimal vulnerability, underscoring their strong alignment with long-term operational goals. In contrast, Golgohar (0.63) and ChadorMalu (0.60) scored lowest, indicating substantial environmental and operational challenges. Relocating industrial units, such as Golgohar and Chadormalu, to coastal areas could reduce WF by up to 50% compared to seawater transfer, as industrial relocation minimizes the energy-intensive pumping processes over long distances. This study underscores the need for tailored strategies to enhance the efficiency of water transfer systems and mitigate environmental impacts. Relocation of iron and steel industries, optimization of water and energy use in Golgohar, and sustainable practices for regions like ChadorMalu are recommended to achieve balanced socio-economic and environmental outcomes in the water-scarce areas of Central Iran.
How to cite: Gohari, A., Ghanbarian, M., and Akhavan Saraf, G.: Seawater Transfer and Sustainability challenges: Insights from Central Iran, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1824, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1824, 2025.
The water-energy-food nexus has emerged as a prominent area of study and application, highlighting the vital role these sectors play in human existence and the intricate and substantial challenges they encounter. Although the nexus concept is still evolving and has not been fully implemented in practice, it has inspired diverse approaches across various contexts. In the present study, Central Asia, a region where transboundary water issues are made extremely prominent and complex due to climate change, the historical evolution of basin characteristics, and the different interests of riparian countries, was selected as the research area. This study aims to assess nexus research in transboundary water from previously published research focusing on Central Asia, with the objective of characterising the efforts that have gone into understanding the intellectual and social structures (such as identification of patterns, hot topics, and themes of focus by various authors) as well as the evolution of the WEF nexus research domain in Central Asia. Using a meta-analysis and bibliometric analysis, the authors examined literature from 2011 to 2024, sourced from the Web of Science, Scopus databases, and media. Analytical tools such as the Bibliometrix, an RStudio package, Microsoft Excel, and VOS viewer were applied to interpret the data. This study contributes to the growing body of literature and ongoing discussions regarding how the WEF Nexus approaches in a transboundary context can represent an opportunity for reinforced collaboration regarding resource management
How to cite: Bamgboye, T. T., Rafipour Langeroud, M., and Shukurov, E.: Water Energy Food Nexus in Central Asia Transboundary River Basin: Evolution, Trends and Applications , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-204, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-204, 2025.
Water-Energy-Food Challenges in Central Asia: A Comparative Study of Solar and Fossil Fuel-Powered Irrigation Systems
Doctoral researcher Matin Rafipour Langeroudi, Doctoral researcher Taiwo Bamgboye University of Oulu
Water-related challenges in transboundary river basins are exacerbated by climate change, historical basin developments, and competing national interests. In Central Asia, the Amu Darya River, essential for agriculture in downstream countries like Uzbekistan, faces significant threats from upstream infrastructure projects such as the Rogun Dam in Tajikistan and the Qosh Tepa Canal in Afghanistan. These projects are expected to reduce downstream water flow by up to 30% and 15%, respectively, significantly impacting irrigation systems, increasing energy demands for pumping, and straining agricultural productivity and socio-economic stability. The aim of this research addresses the impacts of upstream developments on water availability and explores adaptive strategies for irrigation sustainability. A comparative analysis of solar-powered and fossil fuel-powered irrigation systems will be conducted to assess their efficiency, environmental impact, and economic feasibility. Environmental assessments will estimate greenhouse gas emissions, and cost-benefit analyses will evaluate energy efficiency and long-term viability. Key metrics, including energy consumption, water output, and operational costs, will be analyzed to identify trade-offs and propose sustainable solutions. The study’s findings aim to mitigate the impacts of reduced water availability by promoting renewable energy integration and adaptive irrigation practices. By addressing these challenges within the Water-Energy-Food (WEF) nexus, this research offers critical insights to guide policymakers and stakeholders in developing sustainable water resource management strategies, transitioning to cleaner energy systems, and enhancing agricultural resilience under the dual pressures of upstream developments and climate change.
Keywords: Amu Darya Basin, Upstream infrastructure projects, Water resource management, Irrigation systems, Agricultural productivity, Solar energy in agriculture, Fossil fuel-based pumping system, Transboundary water challenges, Rogun Dam impact, Qosh-Tepa canal, Water-Energy-Food nexus, Renewable energy solutions.
How to cite: Shukurov, E., Bamgboye, T., and Rafipour Langeroudi, M.: Water-Energy-Food Challenges in Central Asia: A Comparative Study of Solar and Fossil Fuel-Powered Irrigation Systems , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1109, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1109, 2025.
Monitoring glacier dynamics over the long term is crucial for calibrating hydrological models and validating future runoff projections in catchments. As sensitive indicators of climate change, glaciers are particularly critical in Central Asia, one of the driest continental regions in the northern hemisphere, where their retreat exacerbates water scarcity, ecological disruption, and geopolitical tensions. These glaciers are primarily concentrated in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, serving as vital water sources for agriculture in downstream countries. The Zarafshan and Amu Darya rivers extensively support agricultural activities in Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan, while the Syr Darya river sustains agriculture in Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. Any changes in water availability could accelerate water conflicts in the region. In the Ili Basin, glaciers located in China contribute to the flow of water feeding Lake Balkhash in Kazakhstan. A reduction in this flow could threaten the lake's future, raising concerns about a potential repeat of the Aral Sea crisis in the region. Consequently, the future of glaciers emerges as a key driver of transboundary water issues in Central Asia, highlighting the urgent need for cooperative management and sustainable strategies to mitigate these challenges. This study integrates Earth Observation Satellite (EOS) data and assimilated products to analyze glacier area changes across the Amu Darya, Syr Darya, and Ili River basins from 1970 to 2024, employing machine learning methods. A time-series analysis framework was adopted to enhance glacier detection, leveraging ERA-5 monthly snow cover dataset. Seasonal snow cover often obscures glacier detection and leads to overestimations. ERA-5 data were filtered for warm-season imagery and aggregated into annual averages to address this. Snow cover persisting through warm seasons at elevations above 2500 meters was identified as glacier associated. This methodology was validated through comparisons with high-resolution EOS imagery, confirming its accuracy in delineating glacier extents. Trend analysis using Mann-Kendall and Pettitt test revealed a gentle decreasing trend in glacier area, beginning in the late 1990s to early 2000s. During the study period, glacier area declined by 13% in the Amu Darya basin, 21% in the Ili basin, and 29% in the Syr Darya basin. Following this, air temperature records displayed a statistically significant increase, with mean temperature rising by 0.75 0C from 1996-1997. A negative correlation was observed between air temperature and glacier area, with coefficients of -0.44, -0.60 and -0.62 for the Amu Darya, Syr Darya, and Ili basins, respectively. Cross-correlation and R-squared analysis indicated that air temperature variability explained 31% of glacier area changes over short time horizons (e.g., one-year lag).
How to cite: Ahrari, A. and Torabi Haghighi, A.: Glacier Dynamics and Water Security in Central Asia: Insights from Earth Observation Satellites and Machine Learning, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2228, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2228, 2025.
In the Cuvelai-Cunene and Limpopo River Basins, rapid urbanization, climate change, and economic instability exacerbate existing water challenges, affecting ecosystems and communities reliant on agriculture and water resources. Both basins are particularly vulnerable to floods and droughts, with local communities’ livelihoods directly influenced by climate variability. Our research addresses these challenges through a participatory multi-criteria decision approach (MCDA) in order to assess vulnerability and risk for a customised management to enhance water security. Furthermore, it contributes to further develop research methods of MCDA risk assessment.
This work is part of the project “Co-Design of a Hydrometeorological Information System for Sustainable Water Resources Management in Southern Africa (Co-HYDIM-SA)”, under the Water Security in Africa (WASA) Programme, which aims to enhance water security across Southern Africa. The central component of the project is the development of a co-designed hydro-meteorological information system (CUVEWIS), which will provide reliable, tailored risk assessments to support decision-making, with a focus on hydrological forecasting and the management of hydrological extremes.
Our work package employs a comprehensive assessment framework based on three risk factors: hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. Our methodology integrates co-production of knowledge with stakeholder input to develop spatial risk and vulnerability maps, and actionable information to mitigate climate-driven water risks. Data sources include satellite imagery, socio-economic statistics, and local expertise to construct region-specific risk and vulnerability indicators. A multi-criteria decision-making approach refines these indicators and assesses stakeholder perspectives, reflecting local insights, demands and needs regarding risk and risk information use. This synthesis of diverse data and stakeholder input, incorporating a human component within measured and modelled datasets, supports the development of the hydro-meteorological information system through context-specific, adaptive, and integrated risk management.
This research aligns with the UN 2023 Water Conference’s call to accelerate Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) through strengthened cooperation and integrated water resource management. It supports SADC Regional Strategic Action Plan V’s themes on water resources management by identifying regional risk hotspots, generating context-specific data for CUVEWIS, and developing foundational tools for operational forecasting and climate adaptation. Our participatory approach not only enhances socio-hydrological understanding but also strengthens regional capacities for risk management and sustainable, climate-resilient water resource management. Furthermore, this work is a valuable contribution to the IAHS's new decade initiative HELPING, which highlights the co-production of knowledge with stakeholders as a cornerstone of hydrological research.
Key words: Risk assessment, vulnerability, flood, drought, multi-criteria decision approach.
Acknowledgement: The WASA programme in Germany was launched under the leadership of the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF), with the collaboration of six additional federal ministries and their respective institutions.
How to cite: Pamukçu Albers, P. and Evers, M.: Addressing Water Risks in southern Africa: A Participatory Multi-Criteria Approach for Flood and Drought Resilience, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1512, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1512, 2025.
Transboundary water resources management in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) faces numerous challenges due to competing water demands, climate variability, impact, lack of adaptive capacity and geopolitical dynamics. Effective governance and cooperation are essential for the sustainable management of shared water resources. This study examines how the Southern African Science Service Centre for Climate Change and Adaptive Land Management’s (SASSCAL) and Graduate Studies Programme in Integrated Water Resources Management (SGSP-IWRM) enhances collaborative governance and regional cooperation for transboundary water management in the SADC through targeted skills and capacity development. With financial support from Germany’s Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF), the SGSP-IWRM Programme provides a strategic platform for strengthening the water sector’ human skills’ capacities and fostering collaboration among the five SASSCAL countries (Angola, Botswana, Namibia, South Africa, Zambia). The study identifies critical technical knowledge, skills, and competencies provided by the SGSP programme which has strengthened collaboration for managing transboundary waters within the SASSCAL member states. It further highlights the impact of customised short courses for capacity enhancement of water resources management professionals and policymakers. This was intended to contribute to bridging professional skill gaps. The study underscores the role of skills and capacity development in enhancing the effectiveness of regional cooperation, ensuring equitable water distribution, and advancing integrated water resources management in the region. Ultimately, it advocates for a comprehensive approach to capacity development that aligns with the strategic goals of the SADC Water Protocol, ensuring long-term sustainability and peace in shared water systems.
How to cite: Dlamini, V., Mabuku, P., and Awofolu, O.: Strengthening collaborative governance and cooperation for transboundary water resources management in SADC through skills and capacity development. , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5471, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5471, 2025.
In data-scarce regions, environmental tracers emerge as a vital tool for characterising groundwater, especially where conventional monitoring methods are limited. This study employed hydrochemical techniques to characterise and develop a conceptual flow model for the Lusaka Aquifer, a crucial water source for the local population threatened by human activities and climate change.
Preliminary findings indicate that the primary hydrochemical facies within the aquifer are calcium-bicarbonate (Ca-〖HCO〗_3) and calcium-magnesium-bicarbonate (Ca-Mg-〖HCO〗_3). Strong correlations (R² > 0.5) exist between calcium and bicarbonate, magnesium, and bicarbonate, and Sodium and Chloride. Further, carbonate rock weathering, particularly the dissolution of calcite and dolomite, predominantly influences groundwater chemistry, albeit with indications of some anthropogenic influences. Hydrochemical signatures suggest a predominant migration path of water from dolomite to schist and limestone, with some samples suggesting origins from limestone. Isotope data comparing δ²H and δ¹⁸O values for groundwater and precipitation indicate a strong meteoric origin of groundwater recharge. Seasonal variations in precipitation isotope signatures, observed from January to April, further highlight the temporal dynamics of recharge. The groundwater samples were classified into four clusters using hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA), a multivariate statistical method, to identify distinct hydrochemical endmembers. Cluster 1 consisted of groundwater rich in bicarbonate, calcium, and magnesium, influenced by limestone and dolomite. Cluster 2 represented a mix of natural and urban influences, while Cluster 3 indicated high-quality recharge water characterised by calcite dissolution. Cluster 4 displayed a unique ionic composition, likely shaped by schist and potential contamination.
The subsequent phase of this study involves establishing a Mixing Cell Model (MCM) to elucidate the flow system and ascertain recharge water composition. This endeavour promises to enhance our understanding of the hydrogeological system, crucial for effective resource management and preservation.
Keywords: Hydrochemistry, groundwater, flow systems, Mixing Cell Model, HCA
How to cite: Lweendo, M. K., Benjamin Mapani, B., Bassukas, D., Adelabu, S., and Christoph Küells, C.: Hydrochemical Characterization of Flow Systems in the Lusaka Aquifer, Zambia, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6822, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6822, 2025.
Increased nutrient loads from agricultural land use have been associated with water quality deterioration. The Orange River catchment in South Africa faces water quality issues linked to nitrogen (N) leaching and Phosphorus (P) pollution. It is well established that land use changes from natural to anthropogenic purposes have an impact on water quality. An increase in the application of inorganic fertilizer due to the expansion of intensive agriculture and especially irrigation may contribute to water pollution. This research, therefore, presents the effect of land use change on water quality in the Lower Orange River Basin using the Riet_Modder River in the Free State, South Africa watershed. Historical GEMStat water quality data and multi-year LULC mapped from Landsat imagery were used for the analysis. Nutrient (NH4N, NOxN and DRP) concentrations and loads from 1990 to 2020 at the Riet-Modder River watershed were analysed for the trends and their correlation to various land cover classes. Main LULC changes included an eightfold increase in commercial irrigated land area, bare lands by 96%, subsistence lands by 81% and wetlands by -83%. Water quality data at the outlet point showed an increase in NH4N and DRP over the period of study, while NOxN decreased over the period. NH4N and NOxN loads were reduced, while DRP indicated an increase in all seasons. From the findings, the Riet-Modder River watershed is threatened by water quality deterioration associated with increased commercial irrigated lands, reduced wetlands, subsistence croplands and waste from urban centres. Nitrogen elements, especially (ammonia, ammonium) concentration and phosphorus concentrations, are on the rise, and the water sources in the area are classified as eutrophic. Phosphorus loads transported out of the watershed are also increasing, which will further deteriorate ambient water quality.
How to cite: Oyieyo, S., Bharati, L., and Borgermeister, C.: Impact of land use changes on water quality at lower Oranger River catchment, South Africa., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8800, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8800, 2025.
While the management of the Incomati River Basin (Eswatini, Mozambique and South Africa) reflects a positive example of sharing water across countries, the basin’s current transboundary water allocation framework requires updating to address emerging challenges such as increased demand and climate variability. Unfortunately, comprehensive basin-wide models to inform this update process are hard to come by. This study enhances a recently developed water allocation model for the Incomati Basin and incorporates stakeholder input from all riparian countries. Stakeholders collaboratively identified priorities, concerns, and potential benefits, leading to the development of alternative allocation scenarios. These scenarios address critical issues such as increasing minimum cross-border flows, aggregating system-wide minimum flows, and the addition of new reservoirs. The scenarios were assessed using key performance indicators, including demand deficits, environmental flow requirements, withdrawal ratios, and annual flow targets. This evaluation framework highlights the trade-offs and benefits associated with various management strategies. Results indicate that alternative water distribution strategies can enhance benefits for all stakeholders while improving environmental sustainability. Notably, the addition of new reservoirs demonstrated the greatest potential for maximizing water resource benefits compared to simply increasing transboundary flows without additional storage capacity. Further analysis provided insights into managing peak flows and drought conditions, emphasizing the role of tailored interventions to enhance system resilience. The findings suggest that INMACOM and riparian countries should consider adopting flexible allocation frameworks that integrate stakeholder input and emphasize sustainable practices. By prioritizing adaptive management, the basin can strengthen resilience to future challenges and foster long-term cooperation.
How to cite: van der Merwe, S., Etichia, M., Lautze, J., Velpuri, N., and Harou, J.: Water Sharing in the Incomati: Can we do it better?, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9633, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9633, 2025.
Technological advancements provide remote sensing (RS) data as a viable option for hydro-climate analysis. In Water resources management, it is important to establish the efficiency and effectiveness of application of the various data products especially in data scarce areas where reliability may contribute significantly to decision making. The study therefore aims to assess the effectiveness of remote sensing products in characterizing the hydro-climate of a data scarce area. In Notwane Sub-Catchment (NSC), the study analyses Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS-v2), Climate Research Unit (CRU), fifth generation of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Atmospheric Reanalysis (ERA5) and TERRACLIMATE monthly rainfall data from 1990- 2022 against ground-based gauge data using the Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) for assessing temporal dynamics (r), biasness (β) and variability (γ); and scatterplots were applied to compare the two datasets conformity and reliability. Spatio-temporal analysis was performed using the CUSUM and non-parametric Mann-Kendall (MK) test at α=0.05 level. KGE results averaged at 0.52 with r, β and γ at 0.67,1.00 and 0.81 respectively. Mann Kendall test picked some natural fluctuations consistent with CUSUM, of wet and dry seasons without any significant changes. CHIRPS-v2 overestimated low and underestimated high rainfall at 55% and 45% respectively. Two distinct wet and dry seasons were observed similar to the seasonality observed with gauge data. The study effectively characterised the spatio-temporal patterns of rainfall using remote sensing data and validated CHIRPS-v2 data as an alternative remote sensing product for data scarce areas. The study contribute knowledge to data scarce area on application of remote sensing data.
How to cite: Kerapetse, C. T., Ngongondo, C., Moosdorf, N., and Yankson, E.: Remote Sensing Data Efficacy for Hydro-Climate Characterisation of Rainfall in Data Scarce Areas: A Case of Notwane Sub-Catchment, Botswana, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10217, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10217, 2025.
Analysis of temporal variability of Okavango River discharge time series is important in revealing the hydrological processes and processes in a semi-arid system. The aim of analyzing the discharge patterns was to determine periodicities and temporal evolution of stream flow regime of the transboundary Okavango River system over a 90-year time series (1930 – 2020). Using the Daubechies wavelet transform for multiresolution decomposition, several significant periodicities at multiple temporal scales were identified. The analysis revealed dominant cycles across varying timescales; semi-annual (0.5 years), annual (1-year) and multiyear (8 and 10 years) cyclic patterns suggesting complex hydroclimatic influences from the upstream Angolan highlands. Cross-wavelet analysis between the river discharge and precipitation in the headwaters highlighted the evolution of the identified periodicities and their spatial coherence across the transboundary basin. Of particular significance was the discharge patterns which showed declining flows over time due to the absence of historically prevalent peak flows in recent decades. The findings provide vital insights which would enable better prediction of flow patterns to inform adaptive management strategies and sustainable use of the available water resources. With the growing hydroclimatic uncertainty in the region, the periodicities and temporal patterns provide a basis for improving resilience of water management systems.
How to cite: Tafila, O., Jomaa, S., Labat, D., Kumar, R., Moalafhi, D., Yankson, E., and Rode, M.: Multi-Scale Wavelet Analysis of Okavango River discharge patterns at the Mohembo station upstream the Okavango Delta, Botswana, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12264, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12264, 2025.
The SASSCAL Graduate Studies Programme in Integrated Water Resources Management (SGSP – IWRM) funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research, was established in 2021 by the Southern African Science Service Centre for Climate Change and Adaptive Land Management (SASSCAL), together with the Namibia University of Science and Technology (NUST), and the International Centre for Water Resources and Global Change (ICWRGC) at the Federal Institute of Hydrology (BfG) in Koblenz, Germany.
SGSP students will be awarded their degrees from NUST in 2025 where the programme is hosted. A special part of the SGSP program is the mobility program where students spend three to six months in Germany, hosted by a university/ institute to work closely with their German supervisor. The mobility program is organized by the ICWRGC and allows the students to widen their career development through quality-oriented knowledge exchange, training opportunities, research and networking. The mobility program further provides technical experience and exposure enhancement, in addition to facilitating the promotion of ‘international adaptability and cross- cultural sensitivity” desired in the global economy.
The presentation will highlight the process of establishing and implementing the scientific mobility program, focusing on the cooperation required for this program to help promote discussions among young and experienced, German and African researchers on current and future research themes and activities in Southern Africa given climate change. In specific, current and future climate challenges in Southern Africa that were defined in a workshop conducted throughout the students’ mobility program and range from food insecurity, to water scarcity and floods will be addressed. The presentation will further focus on the new research themes arising and how we can ensure that this research be translated into policy.
Additionally, the presentation will include the results of the in-person evaluation interviews conducted with the students to shed a light on the lessons learn from this cooperation. This is the basis needed for proper evaluation and assessment of the mobility program to ensure better cooperation for the launching of a second cohort.
How to cite: Hashweh, L. and Bharati, L.: Establishing the mobility program as part of the SASSCAL Graduate Studies Programme in Integrated Water Resources Management (SGSP – IWRM) , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3257, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3257, 2025.
Posters on site: Tue, 29 Apr, 10:45–12:30 | Hall A
The destruction of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station dam led to the complete disappearance of the Kakhovka reservoir. Many articles have been written about the consequences of this disaster, the future of the dam and the reservoir. The opinions of scientists are divided, some talk about the advisability of restoring the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station, others - about the preservation of the flora and fauna that formed on the site of the reservoir.
Among scientists, there is an opinion that the rise in groundwater levels in the reservoir area in March 2023 was caused by the influence of the Dnieper River. In this article, based on previous studies, an assumption is made about the discharge of the Sarmatian aquifer. This is confirmed by a significant decrease in the groundwater level on the lands of the left bank of the former Kakhovka reservoir.
The data for this study were obtained from hydrometeorological observations, Earth remote sensing systems. The article defines the main components of the water balance and the probable cause of the flooding of the territory of the former Kakhovka reservoir, presents studies of the influence of the former Kakhovka reservoir on the flooding of the lands of the left bank before and after the destruction of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station.
How to cite: Tsymbal, V., Buts, Y., Baubekova, A., Sharifi, A., and Torabi Haghighi, A.: The influence of reservoirs on land flooding using the exam ple of the former Kakhovka reservoir (Ukraine), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1789, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1789, 2025.
River flow regimes are significantly altered by anthropogenic regulation activities, such as dam reservoir and hydropower. Such activities modify river flow regime, integrating three primary attributes (magnitude, timing, and monthly variability). However, these impacts are different in diverse environments according to the climate and land use. This study aims to investigate such impacts in cold climate sub-Arctic and arid semi-arid examples. First, the post and pre impact periods are set based on the changing point resulted from Pettitt test. Then the long-term monthly average of flow in the two pre and post impact periods will be assessed for each station to illustrate the form of influences in monthly hydrographs. After that, the River Impact index (RI) is employed to investigate the level of flow regime alteration and address those flow attributes that are impacted differently in different cases. The RI index is quantified by developing the respective impact factors MIF (Magnitude Impact Factor), TIF (Timing Impact Factor) and VIF (Variation Impact Factor) where RI=MIF×(TIF+VIF). The preliminary results show that in arid and semi-arid cases with intensive agriculture and hydrosystem development (such as Karkheh and Sefidrud in Iran), magnitude has altered more than the other attributes, while, in sub-Arctic cases such as (Ob, Yukon, Mackenzie), river regulation mainly impacts the timing and variability. This can highlight the role of mid-basin tributaries which naturally regulate the magnitude of flow in the sub arctic watersheds where land use change is not significant, in contrast with the other cases in arid and semi-arid regions.
How to cite: Ghadimi, S. and Torabi Haghighi, A.: Comparative assessment of river flow regime alteration in diverse environment: cases from pan-Arctic and arid semi-arid regions, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1405, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1405, 2025.
Water bodies such as lakes and reservoirs are essential components of the hydrological cycle, providing water for agriculture, domestic use, industry, and supporting biodiversity and energy production. In India, especially in arid and semi-arid regions, these water bodies serve as vital lifelines by storing monsoon precipitation and ensuring year-round water availability. Despite their importance, the large-scale impact of drought on Indian water bodies has not been thoroughly explored. This study examines spatio-temporal variations in water area and quantifies the impacts of drought using remotely sensed data from Landsat satellites (4, 5, 7, and 8) and climate variables from 1990 to 2018. The results indicate that 35% of water bodies show significant declining trends, with average reductions of 10% in the long-term mean maximum area and 5% in the minimum area. The decline in water area is most pronounced during droughts, severely affecting small water bodies that shrink more rapidly than medium and large ones. Moreover, the duration of a 20% reduction in water area decreases by 1 month during drought periods. The findings reveal that combined monsoon and post-monsoon droughts have significantly impacted water areas, particularly in central and southern India. Therefore, the rapidly shrinking water bodies identified in this study can contribute to improved water resource management by enabling the development of an early warning system in India.
How to cite: Naik, M. N. and Mishra, V.: Impacts of drought on surface water storage in India, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15320, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15320, 2025.
As global water challenges intensify, governance frameworks are undergoing significant transformations, with a growing emphasis on managing water demand and rationalizing supply expectations. The expectations of water actors across diverse contexts and spatial scales shape their satisfaction with water supply and allocation rates, influencing governance outcomes. This dynamic, in turn, impacts their participation and ability to drive governance system reforms and influence overall outcomes.
Adopting a multidisciplinary approach, this study examines the interplay between these elements across various governance models. It highlights the role of exogenous factors—such as water availability, requirements, resources, capabilities, and political, socioeconomic, or psychological parameters—that shape objectives, cognition, decision-making processes, and adaptability.
The research underscores the critical importance of revising expectations to promote satisfaction, thereby fostering greater participation and refining governance outcomes. By exploring how the participation and consent of water demand and supply management actors can strengthen governance systems, this study provides actionable recommendations for fostering collaboration, aligning expectations, and improving satisfaction to support resilient water governance reforms.
Ultimately, this study aims to enhance governance structures in shared water basins affected by fragmented jurisdictional and spatial scales, where differentiated political-administrative mechanisms manage water resources, including supply and demand.
How to cite: Arjomandi, P., Seyedi, S., and Komendantova, N.: Dynamics of Expectations, (Dis)satisfaction, and Participation in Changing States of Water Governance Systems, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18614, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18614, 2025.
Posters virtual: Mon, 28 Apr, 14:00–15:45 | vPoster spot A
EGU25-20284 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS8
The role of media in shaping the hydropolitical interactions in the transboundary basinsMon, 28 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST) | vPA.2
New global challenges, such as the intense desire for development and climate change, can exacerbate water conflicts among stakeholders (at local, regional, national, and international levels). Material interests are often regarded as effective tools for resolving conflicts and fostering a spirit of cooperation among riparian countries in transboundary river basins. However, discourses and narratives produced by the media, alongside material factors, play a decisive role in shaping water interactions, a topic that has received less attention. The primary objective of this study is to examine the impact of media on transboundary water interactions. To achieve this goal, a systematic review of existing research across various databases was conducted, alongside an analysis of library resources on the influence of media on water interactions. The findings indicate that conflict is an inherent and natural feature of water systems, particularly in shared river basins. However, most media articles and reports tend to intensify water conflicts in shared basins, with limited coverage dedicated to pathways for cooperation that could bring riparian stakeholders together. The use of media to advance the interests of states within a basin often strengthens the potential for water conflicts. Therefore, constructive changes in water diplomacy and conflict transformation require an understanding of the media's role in water cooperation and disputes. This understanding is essential for shaping the water policies of riparian countries.
How to cite: farzaneh, F., Mianabadi, H., Andik, B., and Ghadimi, S.: The role of media in shaping the hydropolitical interactions in the transboundary basins, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20284, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20284, 2025.
Additional speakers
- Hojjat Mianabadi
- Kaveh Madani