Modelling future Antarctic climate and surface mass balance with RACMO2.4p1 (2015-2100)

We present the first results of future Antarctic climate simulations with the polar-adapted Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RACMO2.4p1). As part of the PolarRES project, two climate storylines are explored, examining the response of the Antarctic surface mass balance (SMB) to two plausible future climates with varying degree of Antarctic sea ice loss and changes to upper atmospheric circulation. For this RACMO2.4p1 is run on a 11 km horizontal grid forced with high emission scenario SSP3-7.0 simulations from CESM2 and MPI-ESM for the period 2015-2100. To evaluate the model performance using climate model data, we compare historical simulations (1985-2015) forced by CESM2 and MPI-ESM to those forced by ERA5. We examine shifts in Antarctic precipitation and SMB between the current and future climate, and relate those changes to changes in atmopsheric circulation, atmospheric moisture budget and presence of sea ice.