High-resolution Dynamical Projections and Uncertainty assessment of the Extreme Wave Climate for China's offshore under different global warming levels

Few studies have focused on the projected future changes in wave climate in the Chinese marginal seas. In this study, we investigate the projected changes of the extreme wave climate over the Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea, and East China Sea (BYE) under the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios from WAM wave model ensemble simulations with a resolution of 0.1 degree This is currently the highest-resolution wave projection dataset available for the study domain. The wind forcings for WAM are from high-resolution (0.22 degree) regional climate model (RCM) CCLM-MPIESM simulations. The multivariate bias-adjustment method based on the N-dimensional probability density function transform is used to correct the raw simulated significant wave height (SWH) and mean wave period (MWP). We investigated the projected changes in frequency, intensity and duration of extreme wave events under different warming levels. Uncertainty in projected changes of extreme wave has been analyzed and results show that model uncertainty is the dominant contribution to the total uncertainties of wave projections.