Spatial and temporal dynamics of a bark beetle-induced forest disturbance regime

The European Alps are currently considered among the ecoregions with the highest magnitude of average bark beetle disturbance per year. We present a disturbance regime characterization based on a unique database including more than 50,000 records of ground-based bark beetle disturbance observations in the Eastern Alps for the years 2020 to 2023. The dataset was used to extract precise temporal and spatial information on disturbance events in terms of sizes, distances, intensity and frequency. Disturbance events were modeled as spatial point processes based on scale dependency (landscape-regional) and their deviation from random distributions was assessed. Parameters typically used in forest disturbance models such as clustering degree, intensity slope and probability scale were retrieved. Additionally, above-ground biomass loss was estimated. The disturbance metrics and parameters can help for the correct parameterization of forest disturbance models, and thus supporting our capability of predicting future patterns of beetle dispersal and effects on carbon stocks in the alpine region and beyond.