Climate change, Air Quality, and Public Health: Integrating Science and Policy for Urban Resilience and Adaptation

This study examines the mortality burden associated with heat and cold temperatures, compounded by poor air quality, in two Italian cities. Using a generalized linear model with Poisson regression, we quantify the mortality risk attributable to heat/cold and the air pollutants PM10 and O3 over recent years, focusing on both the general population and the most vulnerable age group. To project future mortality trends up to 2050, a regional climate model coupled with a chemistry-transport model is applied under future climate and air quality scenarios.

The results highlight the critical need to consider the effects of air pollution alongside climate factors. Vulnerable populations, particularly the elderly, are shown to be more susceptible to both extreme temperatures and air pollution. Looking ahead, future mortality patterns will be influenced by two opposing effects: an increase in mortality due to more frequent and intense warm temperatures, particularly in scenarios of climate inaction, and a decrease in cold-related mortality.

The findings underscore the urgent need to integrate climate change mitigation with air quality management to reduce the combined health risks. Effective science transfer into timely and informed policy action is essential for bridging the gap between research findings and practical, actionable solutions.

Drawing on the literature and lessons learnt from several research projects and case studies (e.g., ForestNavigator, RETURN), we demonstrate that this gap between research findings and actionable solutions requires i) engaging local stakeholders (including government authorities, public health organizations, and communities) and ii) analysing the cognitive factors - such as awareness and risk perception - that can act as either barriers or enablers in shaping adaptive capacity and resilience at both the individual and community levels.

Increasing public awareness of the risks associated with temperature extremes and air pollution, and enhancing risk perception through knowledge transfer, will empower individuals and communities to adopt protective measures. In addition to encouraging behavioural shifts, fostering resilience and improving adaptive capacity, such awareness can drive policy changes, ultimately reducing the health burden of climate-related risks.