- 1British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, United Kingdom (sarylo99@bas.ac.uk)
- 2University of Bristol, School of Geographical Sciences, United Kingdom (sarah.e.taylor@bristol.ac.uk)
- 3National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Leeds, United Kingdom
- 4University of Reading, United Kingdom
Understanding how key regional circulation features respond to future global warming is essential for projections of Antarctic Ice Sheet dynamics, and future global sea level rise. The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) influences the strength and location of the mid-latitude tropospheric westerly jet, which controls the transport of warm air and moisture towards the AIS. The Amundsen Sea Low (ASL), a permanent low-pressure system off the coast Antarctica affects regional wind patterns, precipitation and ocean circulation. These features can also impact the exchange of heat and carbon dioxide between the ocean and atmosphere, impacting sea ice extent and the stability of ice shelves. Under global warming scenarios, changes in these atmospheric features may significantly alter surface mass balance, surface melt, temperature and precipitation patterns over the AIS.
This study uses UK Earth System Model (UKESM) overshoot experiments that explore future emission increase, stabilization, and reduction simulations to investigate the interactions between atmospheric circulation features and the Antarctic cryosphere. These idealised simulations are forced only by CO2 concentrations and currently extend up to 650 years duration, allowing exploration of the response of the AIS to a range of global warming scenarios, and asses potential reversibility under future CO2 reduction.
This research utilises these simulations to identify trends in the SAM, ASL and westerly jets. Initial results show a deepening of the absolute pressure of the ASL, a poleward shift and strengthening of the westerly jet, with trends increasing and reversibility diminishing with higher global warming scenarios. These simulations are then used to identify any relationship between these features and trends in temperature, precipitation and surface melt over regions of the AIS and ice shelves, providing insights into the long-term stability of the AIS under varying climate scenarios.
How to cite: Taylor, S., Orr, A., Cornford, S., Bracegirdle, T., and Smith, R.: Exploring Antarctic Circulation-Ice Sheet Interactions in UKESM Climate Projections Through 2500 and Beyond, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16564, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16564, 2025.
