GLOBCOASTS_JRC: A Flexible Framework for Real-Time Coastal Risk Assessment Based on Waterline Changes

The estimation of the land-sea interface, or waterline, variability due to high energetic events - i.e. potentially inducing extreme coastal level and erosion- constitutes an important component for the comprehensive risk assessment of the global coastal zone. The large spatial scales and the requirement for real-time coastal risk assessment pose the need for timely forecasts of the key driving processes, in conjunction with the human stakes, exposed population, infrastructures and properties, at risk. Moreover, the interplay between the involved physical processes necessitates the inclusion of a large number of plausible scenarios, useful for the involved decision makers. We present a flexible and low computational-cost framework for the real-time estimation of the global waterline change and associated coastal risk. This framework utilizes satellite-derived probabilistic water level data for the global ocean, combined with state of the art wave and hydrological numerical data and up-to-date satellite observations of the waterline. This information is integrated with high spatial resolution exposure data, providing in real-time the assessment of the imminent risk at the global coastal zone. The outcome of the proposed approach may serve as an additional forecast tool for a first-pass risk assessment, facilitating both short-term and long-term risk mitigation studies.