Comprehensive Assessment of Thermospheric Models During Geomagnetic Storms at NASA/CCMC

In this study, we present the results of a comprehensive assessment of thermosphere models under geomagnetic storm conditions, defined by a geomagnetic index ap ≥ 80. This work builds upon Bruinsma et al. (2024, DOI: 10.1051/swsc/2024027), which evaluated the performance of empirical and physics-based thermosphere models during storm periods. Utilizing models hosted at NASA's Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC), we conduct an unbiased evaluation of their performance. Model simulations are analyzed across four storm phases—pre-storm, onset, recovery, and post-storm—relative to the time of peak ap. After applying a debiasing procedure based on the pre-storm phase, we compare the modeled neutral density data to high-fidelity observational datasets from TU Delft, derived from CHAMP, GOCE, GRACE, GRACE-FO, and SWARM-A satellites.

Key performance metrics, including mean density ratios, standard deviations, and correlation coefficients, are used to construct thermosphere model scorecards. These scorecards provide a valuable resource for users to identify the most suitable model for specific applications. The ultimate objective of this study is to establish a near-real-time scorecard for thermosphere model assessment at NASA/CCMC, employing consistent and standardized metrics.