Changes in the spatio-temporal distribution of climatic conditions suitable for mycotoxigenic fungal pathogens in Europe: Implications of Climate Change on Food Security

Anthropogenic climate change is altering the distribution of mycotoxigenic fungi, including Aspergillus flavus and Fusarium spp., which produce harmful mycotoxins like aflatoxins and fumonisins that can contaminate food and feed supplies. These shifts impact agriculture, food security, and food safety, as fungal life cycles depend on temperature, humidity, and rainfall. Using high-resolution ERA5-Land data (1950–2021), we have calculated a daily Aflatoxin Risk Index (ARI) to identify high-risk regions and temporal trends. Results show a significant increase in the days with ARI >0.50 in southern Europe, particularly in Spain, Greece, and Italy, with expansion into central and northern Europe in recent decades. Future work will employ EURO-CORDEX and CMIP6 projections to assess fungal biodiversity changes under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), addressing critical agricultural and health challenges posed by climate change.