Records of vegetation and environmental change during the Late Quaternary period are numerous and globally distributed, and provide information on actual climate changes and ecosystem responses that have no parallel in recent times. Plants have shown remarkably little macroevolution, and apparently few extinctions, over the past 105–106 years – despite the Earth experiencing alternating warm and cold periods, the latter punctuated by multiple episodes of rapid (decadal to centennial) climate change accompanied by almost equally rapid biome shifts. The persistence of tree taxa in both temperate and tropical regions through multiple climatic cycles indicates considerable resilience to large changes in climate. Phylogenetic niche conservatism has favoured geographic or topographic range shifts, rather than adaptive evolution, as the principal mode by which plants have responded to climate changes on the glacial-interglacial scale. Nevertheless, a pervasive feature of the palaeorecord is the frequent appearance of “novel” communities and disappearance of others: biomes may shift, but community composition is transient. Past vegetation changes also record the effects of atmospheric CO2 concentration on photosynthetic physiology: high CO2 favoured forests and low CO2 favoured C4-dominated grasslands, due to the positive effect of CO2 on the water use efficiency of C3 plant leaves.
This “palaeoperspective” has several, under-appreciated implications for nature conservation in the face of continuing climate change. (1) Novel ecosystems are normal; the preservation of existing assemblages is unlikely to succeed. (2) Rapid migration of plant species (including trees) is possible, likely facilitated by long-distance dispersal, and may be much faster than currently assumed. (3) Rising CO2 has likely been a primary cause of “woody thickening” in savannas, and will continue to promote the colonization of open vegetation by trees.
How to cite: Harrison, S. P. and Prentice, I. C.: Vegetation responses to climate change: lessons from the past 1 Ma of Earth history, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5079, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5079, 2025.
A synthesis of proxy studies from the terrestrial Arctic reveals conflicting patterns regarding the extent and timing of the Holocene summer temperature maximum. This is unexpected, as summer insolation—acting at the hemispheric scale—is generally assumed to be the primary driver. Regional differences have largely been attributed to proxy-related uncertainties.
In this study, we introduce a new quantitative proxy for terrestrial climate change by leveraging sedimentary ancient DNA (plant metabarcoding) from lake sediments. Our dataset spans 22 sites across Siberia, Alaska, and western Canada, covering the last 26,000 years. The reconstruction error is notably low (<1°C) compared to other proxies.
Our findings indicate that the temperature maximum across all records occurred around 10,000 years ago, with temperatures averaging 1.5°C above the late Holocene mean and approximately 4°C warmer than the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) average. While the large-scale trend generally aligns with summer insolation patterns, we observed strong regional variations, particularly in areas affected by shelf flooding. These regions were relatively warm during the glacial period compared to the Holocene, as the sites were situated more distant from the coasts.
Importantly, our sedimentary ancient DNA-based reconstructions are validated by transient simulations using an Earth System Model (ESM) with adjusting land-sea mask which show similar pattern.
How to cite: Herzschuh, U., Boehmer, T., Stoof-Leichsenring, K., Lisovski, S., Dallmeyer, A., and Kaufman, D.: Regional Contrasts in LGM to Holocene Warming Trends in the Terrestrial Arctic: Insights from Sedimentary Ancient DNA, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16593, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16593, 2025.
Mid-Pleistocene transition (MPT), a climate state underwent low temperature and dry condition, has been suggested as a candidate for a massive genomic bottleneck in African hominins ~0.9 million years ago (Ma). However, no sufficient evidence supports such attribution to climate deterioration for the human genetic bottleneck. Here, we use an agent-based model forced by realistic time-evolving climate conditions to investigate the population and genetic changes of African hominins. With our climate-driven model simulations, population collapses are found before and during the MPT due to reductions of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. The corresponding climate changes and vegetation loss enhance the difficulty of habitation for African hominins in northern and southern Africa. The regional extinctions create population refugia in eastern and southern Africa serving as possible genetic pools for the emergence of Homo sapiens. Furthermore, culture evolution may reinforce the expansion and dispersal of African hominins during the climate recoveries after MPT and to enhance the chance of admixture of African genetic information.
How to cite: Fang, S.-W., Sundaresan, A., Barbieri, C., Raia, P., Ruan, J., Vahdati, A., Zeller, E., Zollikofer, C., and Timmermann, A.: A Climate-Driven Human Genetic Bottleneck in Africa 900 Thousand-Years Ago, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3410, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3410, 2025.
Climate models are fundamental in shaping the narratives of the future impacts of humans on climate, yet their capacity to illuminate past climate impacts on humans remains largely unexplored. This study explores possibilities, challenges and limitations of using comprehensive Earth System Models to reconstruct the climatic niches of hominins during the Last Interglacial (LIG) and the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM).
Hominin niches are primarily shaped by temperature and precipitation patterns, incorporating archaeological and environmental constraints. While paleoclimate reconstructions are commonly used, they are sometimes complemented by climate models. Intermediate Complexity Models are widely applied for their efficiency but lack the resolution and detailed processes offered by Earth System Models (ESMs) or Regional Climate Models (RCMs). Despite their advantages, ESMs and RCMs are computationally expensive for long-term simulations. Moreover, most studies rely on a single climate model, which can introduce significant biases. Here we utilize six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project sixth phase (CMIP6) models to highlight these biases and examine differences in the climatic niche patterns over Europe during the Last Interglacial (LIG), and the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) compared to pre-industrial conditions.
LGM and LIG are the periods with contrasting background climates that humans have experienced. The models show good agreement in terms of mean climate but they tend to diverge during periods of higher variability (like LGM winters). The LIG climate had a larger temperature range with precipitation levels comparable to pre-industrial times over Europe. At the same time during the LGM, the temperature range was high, still, mean temperatures were subzero for half of the year with a similar amount of precipitation. While catabatic winds kept Europe colder during the LGM in the vicinity of the large Scandinavian Inland Ice Sheet, orbitally induced continental heating resulted in warmer LIG summers. However, Iberia and parts of Western Europe maintained moderate climate conditions during both periods. Although the CMIP6 suite of ESM models agrees with each other broadly, getting into specific aspects and regional characteristics can be ambiguous.
Our findings emphasize the need for multi-model approaches to elucidate biases and provide more robust insights into hominin climatic niches. Future research will explore regional variations across Europe, allowing a better understanding of past human-climate interactions.
How to cite: Chinnaswamy, D. K., Schwalb, A., and Wagner, S.: Climate Models and Hominin Niches: Insights from the Last Glacial Cycle, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17276, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17276, 2025.
The Himalayan region, renowned for its breathtaking landscapes, diverse ecosystems, vibrant communities, and rich cultural heritage, is facing significant challenges due to the ongoing impacts of global warming. The region is experiencing accelerated temperature increases and altered weather patterns that have profound implications for both the environment and the communities that depend on it, in both direct and indirect ways. This study examines how global warming and changing weather patterns affect the livelihoods of Himalayan communities, which are closely linked to natural resources and traditional practices. Key impacts include loss of agricultural productivity, including horticulture and agroforestry, reduced water availability due to glacial retreat, increased frequency and intensity of forest fires, and increased risk of natural disasters such as landslides and floods. Rising temperatures are leading to a retreat of glaciers and thus to a decline in the availability of fresh water, an important resource for agriculture and daily life. Changes in precipitation patterns, including altered monsoon cycles and more frequent extreme weather events, further exacerbate water scarcity and disrupt the traditional farming practices that have sustained these communities for generations. In addition, the loss of crop yields and the increase in natural disasters such as landslides, flash floods, etc., caused by volatile weather and unstable glacier melt, are endangering lives and infrastructure. These disasters disproportionately affect vulnerable populations, especially those living in remote areas where access to emergency services and resources is limited. In response to these challenges, Himalayan communities are adopting adaptation strategies such as changing cropping patterns, diversifying livelihoods and increasing migration to urban centres in search of alternative income opportunities. However, these coping mechanisms are often inadequate due to a lack of financial support, limited access to climate-resilient technologies and a lack of policy responsiveness to local needs. This study highlights the need to understand the interactions between climate change, environmental degradation, and socio-economic systems in the Himalayas.
How to cite: Sati, S. P. and Kumar, S.: Impacts of Global Warming on the Livelihoods of Himalayan Communities, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-397, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-397, 2025.
Implementing biodiversity and climate actions for endangered terrestrial vertebrates is hampered by a lack of high-precision habitat maps. Therefore, we developed a dataset by linking the suitable land-use types and elevation ranges of each endangered terrestrial vertebrate species and mapping these factors onto our recently developed global land use and land cover maps, we generated the distribution of global 1-km habitat suitability ranges distributions from 2020 to 2100 under varied climate warming scenarios for endangered terrestrial vertebrates (1,754 amphibians, 617 birds, 1,280 mammals, and 1,456 reptiles) and obtained the spatial evolution maps as compared to 2020 baseline. Validation of the 2020 data with actual observation data suggested that the HSR maps for 92% of amphibians, 94% of birds, 95% of mammals, and 91% of reptiles outperformed random distributions within IUCN's expert range maps and that the distribution of observation points closely aligned with species diversity maps. This dataset offers HSR maps for endangered terrestrial vertebrates and their spatial evolution under future warming scenarios, providing a solid basis for biodiversity conservation.
How to cite: Li, B., Cheng, C., Zhang, T., Mu, N., Li, Z., Yang, S., and Wu, X.: Global 1-km habitat distribution for endangered species and its spatial changes under future warming scenarios, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7855, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7855, 2025.
Increasing conservation efforts are required to avert biodiversity decline caused by climate and land use changes. In a recent study (Hari et al. 2024; preprint), we combined climate change scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP6.0) and land use change projections to assess their impact on future species distribution for a large number of mammals, birds and amphibians. Future projections of land use change were derived from the Land Use Harmonization dataset v2 (LUH2), which does not make any explicit assumptions about the area under protection in these scenarios.
Here, we extend the scope of our future biodiversity projections by adding an additional layer of different protected area (PA) scenarios. In the first conservation scenario, we fix the PAs based on the World Database on Protected Areas (WDPA), thereby assuming that PAs will remain the same in the future as it is today. In a second category of scenarios, we create land use scenarios compatible with the Global Biodiversity Framework’s “30 by 30” target based on the spatially optimized dataset by Jung et al. (2021) combined with LUH2.
We show that combining climate mitigation measures with sustainable land use is more beneficial for biodiversity than any PA scenario alone. However, PA expansion significantly reduces species loss, particularly in biodiversity hotspots. While any level of area-based conservation yields notable biodiversity benefits, the 30% PA target proves especially effective under high-emission scenarios, preventing up to 11.2% more land use-driven species loss in regions such as West, Central, East and South Africa compared to scenarios without PAs.
How to cite: Hari, C., Biber, M., Geldmann, J., Hickler, T., Koopmans, M., Negret, P., Reyer, C., Voskamp, A., Fischer, M., and Davin, É.: The respective role of climate mitigation, sustainable land use and area-based conservation to curb future biodiversity loss, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15791, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15791, 2025.
Niche theory suggests that two species with similar ecological roles can coexist only if they exhibit sufficient differentiation in resource use; otherwise, competitive exclusion may occur. The striped and brown hyena share similar niches, particularly in terms of diet and habitat preferences. Today, the brown hyena’s range is restricted to Southern Africa, while the striped hyena occupies a larger area from Kenya to India. Yet, fossil evidence suggests that these species could have occupied wider, potentially overlapping ranges historically. Brown hyena fossils have been found in Kenya and Ethiopia, while striped hyena fossils appear as far south as South Africa. To investigate the potential historical range shifts of both species during the last 120,000 years, we developed maximum entropy species distribution models (package megaSDM). We used occurrence data collated by the IUCN SSC Hyena Specialist group and HadCM3/ HadAM3H simulated climatic, bioclimatic and vegetation variables as predictors. Our results indicate that during the Last Glacial Maximum (~21,000BP), a potential corridor with high habitat suitability existed between their current ranges, suggesting that the striped hyena could have extended its range into southern Africa, supporting previous fossil findings. We found that habitat suitability for both species has declined over time, likely driven by changes in precipitation, temperature, and biome type. Both species show a preference for regions with relatively low annual precipitation (with 700 mm as a maximum threshold), moderate temperatures (12–18°C), and arid landscapes. These results imply that fluctuating Pleistocene climates, particularly cycles of wetter and drier conditions in East Africa, likely caused shifts in suitable habitats, contributing to the contraction of both species' ranges. Understanding these historical dynamics provides insights into the ecological and climatic factors that have shaped the current distributions of striped and brown hyenas, with implications for conservation and management in the context of future climate change.
How to cite: Virtuoso, F., Brouwer, L., van Langevelde, F., Dloniak, S., Hof, A., Jacobson, A., Ottenburghs, J., Weise, F., Werdelin, L., Westbury, M., and Broekhuis, F.: Using paleoclimatic range reconstructions to analyse historical space shifts of Striped and Brown Hyenas, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12467, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12467, 2025.
Grassland landscapes are important ecosystems in East Africa, providing habitat and grazing grounds for wildlife and livestock and supporting pastoralism, an essential part of the agricultural sector. Since future grassland availability directly affects the future mobility needs of pastoralists and wildlife, we aim to model changes in the distribution of key grassland species under climate change. We combine a global and regional climate model with a machine learning-based species distribution model to understand the impact of regional climate change on different key grass species. The application of a dynamical downscaling step allows us to capture the fine-scale effects of the region’s complex climate, its variability and future changes.
Under present-day climate conditions, the arid lowlands of eastern and northern Kenya seem favourable to all studied grassland species. However, future climate change under the high-emission scenario RCP8.5 is expected to alter the distribution and composition of grassland ecosystems. While C. ciliaris and D. milanjiana, show a slight overall increase in habitat suitability, species such as C. dactylon, C. plectostachyus and C. mezianus are projected to experience notable range contractions. The Turkana region, in particular, is expected to be severely impacted, with a near-complete absence of the studied species under the high-emission scenario. These negative effects are likely driven by increased precipitation and seasonal temperature, which create unfavourable conditions for many grass species. Elevated regions present less favourable conditions for some of the considered species under present-day climate conditions. However, the projected higher temperatures will possibly help some of the grasses to conquer these regions. With this study we tried to anticipate the currently still uncertain changes in grass species, key for wildlife and livestock of pastoralists, under climate change. Our results are valuable for assessing the economic potential of the region and the sustainable long-term planning, for example when designing livestock and wildlife corridors or highway crossings.
How to cite: González-Rojí, S. J., Messmer, M., Eckert, S., Torre-Marin Rando, A., Snethlage, M., Hurni, K., Beyerle, U., Hemp, A., Kibet, S., and Stocker, T. F.: Major distribution shifts are projected for key rangeland grasses under a high-emission scenario in East Africa at the end of the 21st century, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16386, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16386, 2025.
Anthropogenic climate change is altering the distribution of mycotoxigenic fungi, including Aspergillus flavus and Fusarium spp., which produce harmful mycotoxins like aflatoxins and fumonisins that can contaminate food and feed supplies. These shifts impact agriculture, food security, and food safety, as fungal life cycles depend on temperature, humidity, and rainfall. Using high-resolution ERA5-Land data (1950–2021), we have calculated a daily Aflatoxin Risk Index (ARI) to identify high-risk regions and temporal trends. Results show a significant increase in the days with ARI >0.50 in southern Europe, particularly in Spain, Greece, and Italy, with expansion into central and northern Europe in recent decades. Future work will employ EURO-CORDEX and CMIP6 projections to assess fungal biodiversity changes under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), addressing critical agricultural and health challenges posed by climate change.
How to cite: Raj, R., Rieder, H., Balkova, D., Battilani, P., and Leggieri, M. C.: Changes in the spatio-temporal distribution of climatic conditions suitable for mycotoxigenic fungal pathogens in Europe: Implications of Climate Change on Food Security, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16796, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16796, 2025.
Predictive biome distribution models allow us to investigate how ecosystem dynamics may respond to climate change. A key challenge lies in capturing vegetation’s dynamic response, as plants react individually to climate shifts, forming and dissolving biomes over time. Therefore, models that predict the response of biomes to climate change must adopt a physiology-based approach rather than basing themselves on the apparent climatic distributions of biomes as they exist today. BIOME4, a widely used equilibrium vegetation model developed in 1999, incorporates key components that enhance its ecological realism such as a mechanistic approach driven by climate variables, explicit modeling of plant functional types (PFTs), sensitivity to CO₂ effects and soil-climate interactions, and bioclimatic limits. However, the model has been limited by its computational constraints, running at a coarse resolution of 55 km and relying on legacy Fortran code which leads to compiling challenges and lack of modern GIS compatibility.
To address these issues, we implement BIOME4 in Julia, a high-performance and open-source computational language towards which a growing fraction of computational geoscientists are turning. In Julia, just-in-time compilation permits fast development while matching the speed of Fortran, and the use of a modern language allows interfacing with state-of-the-art GIS libraries. Moreover, Julia’s multiple dispatch allows for modularizing the model for future needs and Julia displays high expressivity, which means that it can represent a wide variety of ideas, making models developed in the language highly comprehensive. Thanks to the language improvements, our updated version allows for (1) full parallelization, reducing computation times on HPC systems, (2) improved scalability to handle global datasets at fine resolutions, and (3) enhanced maintainability and modularity for future adaptations.
Using the CHELSA global climate dataset, we demonstrate how our novel BIOME4 version enables new applications. We present predictions of biome distribution at fine resolutions, resolving biome belts along ambiguous elevational gradients in coarse-scale applications. By isolating the individual effects of environmental variables such as temperature, precipitation, and CO₂, we show how BIOME4 facilitates attribution studies on the sensitivity of vegetation to drivers of change and the mechanisms underlying biome shifts. We show that the model can be used to explore climate change impacts through CO₂ fertilization effects or to investigate how changes in net primary productivity (NPP) of PFTs translate into shifts in biome distributions. With access to a wide range of climate scenarios, we provide examples of how one can now use BIOME4 to predict how future climate and CO₂ levels might induce shifts in plant functional type and biome distributions.
This work underscores the value of BIOME4 and the importance of modernizing legacy models to harness advances in computational capabilities, ensuring their relevance in predicting vegetation dynamic responses to climate change.
How to cite: Lechartre, C., Boussange, V., Kaplan, J., Brun, P., and Zimmermann, N.: High-performance computing for mechanistic prediction of biome distribution, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4065, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4065, 2025.
Climate change is considered one of the major threats to species extinction. The impact of climate change on the distribution of Aconitum heterophyllum, an endangered species in the northwestern Himalayan state of Himachal Pradesh, remain largely unexplored. In this study, species occurrence data, bioclimatic variables and population distribution data were used to map the current and future distribution (2050 and 2070) of A. heterophyllum. The Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) based on Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) algorithm driven by climate data from the Global Circulation Model, HadGEM3-GC31-LL, which is statistically downscaled to 1 km spatial resolution was used for species distribution mapping. Here, we consider three future scenarios: Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) - SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585. The Bioclimatic variables (Bio 15), which is precipitation seasonality and elevation, were found to positively influence the distribution of A. heterophyllum in the studied locations. Precipitation seasonality ensures adequate water availability at cold and dry habitats. Also, higher elevations corresponded to high suitable habitats in the Himalaya. The SDM predicted a total suitable area of 1863.7 km2 A. heterophyllum in Himachal Pradesh. Under SSP126, which represents moderate development with minimal environmental degradation, the suitable habitat is projected to decrease by 51.28%by 2070. Under SSP245, which represents moderate development with more pronounced environmental degradation, the suitable habitat is predicted to decrease by 53.64%in the mean by 2070. Under SSP585, representing fossil-fuelled development and successful mitigation of environmental issues, the suitable habitat is predicted to decrease by 54.61% by 2070. Overall, the species is expected to loose 30.68–58.51% of its current habitat between 2050 to 2070, posing a significant extinction risk in the future. Based on the classified layers, the highly suitable areas were found to be overlaying within the Dhauladhar ranges, alpine regions of Pin Valley National Park, Killar ranges of Chamba, Great Himalayan National Park, Parvati glacier, Gramphu, Indrasan Peak and Inderkilla National Park. These regions were identified as areas for key conservation efforts and are crucial for implementing adaptive management strategies to enhance the protection and sustainable use of A. heterophyllum in Himachal Pradesh in the face of global climate change.
Keywords: Species Distribution Modelling, Northwestern Himalaya, Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, Climate change, Endangered
How to cite: Tomar, S., Tölle, M. H., Thakur, S., Kanwal, K. S., Bhatt, I. D., and Puri, S.: Habitat suitability modelling of endangered medicinal plant, Aconitum heterophyllum Wall. Ex Royle in the Western Himalaya, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1107, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1107, 2025.
The increasing relevance of climate change as a threat of species extinction is a pressing concern, as highlighted by the recent IUCN Red List assessment for amphibians. Based on the concept of the climate niche, i.e. conditions required for a stable population, recent studies have estimated the dramatic implications of different climate change scenarios on species. However, there is an ongoing discussion in the community which measures are best suited to quantify climate change impacts on extinction risk, given the available data.
In this study, we provide a consistent framework to evaluate three published measures on historical changes in extinction risk. The compared measures include a classical bioclimate envelope approach, an ensemble of species distribution models, and the average climate change within species' ranges. We train an advanced statistical model (random forest) to predict changes in extinction risk between 1980 and 2021 in 6,288 amphibian species. This analysis is controlled for factors such as geographical range area, human pressures, and other external threats.
We find that two measures based on the climate niche do not predict historical changes in risk, when other factors are controlled for. Also, we find that predictions of risk, based on average climate change, can be misleading when applied to future scenarios. These findings highlight the limitations and inherent uncertainties of predicting climate impact for a high number of species, given the standard datasets and tested methods.
How to cite: Sarnighausen, C., Kotz, M., and Vardag, S.: Measuring Climate Impact on Extinction Risk in Amphibians, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12281, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12281, 2025.
This study investigates the timing of abrupt disruptions to human populations resulting from extreme heat stress on a global scale. Utilizing data from 38 Global Climate Models (GCMs) under multiple Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs: 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5) within the CMIP6 framework, we project a suite of human thermal indices, including apparent temperature (indoor & outdoor), discomfort index, effective temperature, heat index, humidex, modified discomfort index, net effective temperature, simplified wet globe temperature, wet bulb globe temperature, and wind chill temperature, for both historical (1850-2024) and future (2024-2100) periods. Abrupt disruption is defined as a continuous period exceeding historical thresholds for at least five consecutive years.
Our analysis, conducted within Köppen-Geiger climate regions, reveals a concerning trend: the onset of abrupt disruption is projected to occur significantly earlier than previously anticipated across all SSPs. Even under the most optimistic mitigation scenario (SSP2.6), millions of people are projected to experience abrupt disruptions before 2050. By 2100, over 5% of the global population could be affected by these abrupt changes, with substantial regional variations.
Furthermore, our analysis incorporates population projections from SSPs to estimate the number of individuals impacted by these disruptions in each decade. Results indicate a substantial increase in the number of people exposed to extreme heat stress, with significant implications for human health, livelihoods, and societal stability.
These findings underscore the urgency of implementing robust adaptation strategies to mitigate the severe impacts of extreme heat on human populations. Such strategies should include investments in early warning systems, improved urban planning, and the development of heat-resilient infrastructure.
How to cite: Dubey, S. and Lahase, S.: Human Thermal Indices and the Risk of Abrupt Population Disruption, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12891, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12891, 2025.
Over the past two decades, numerous efforts have been made to conserve biodiversity. However, official assessments from the Convention on Biological Diversity indicate that none of the proposed biodiversity conservation targets have been fully achieved. These efforts have often prioritized expanding protected areas, while overlooking the critical importance of climate connectivity, which is essential for species adaptation to climate change. Despite the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework stressing the importance of enhancing ecosystem connectivity to mitigate climate impacts, it remains frequently overlooked in early protected area planning. This oversight is a widespread issue across many countries.To reverse this alarming situation, we call for the establishment of a network of terrestrial protected areas with broad climate connectivity to enhance the resilience of species to climate change. The terrestrial network should include wildlife corridors, rich refuges for rare and endangered species, a variety of ecosystems and areas from low to high elevations. A more effective network of climate-resilient terrestrial protected areas will contribute greatly to the achievement of biodiversity conservation targets from local to global scales in the future.
How to cite: Dang, H.: Protected areas desperately need climate connectivity, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18982, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18982, 2025.
Understanding the impacts of climate change on key economic sectors is essential for developing effective adaptation strategies. The tourism sector in Croatia, a country with diverse climatic regions, is particularly sensitive to changes in climate variables such as air temperature and precipitation. This study aims to analyze essential climate variables for the period 1961–2023 across different climatic regions of Croatia, including Varaždin (representing Northern Continental Croatia), LičkoLešće (Mountain region), and Mali Lošinj and Rijeka (Northern-Eastern Adriatic coastal areas).
In addition to linear trend and 5-year moving average analysis of climate variables for the period 1961-2023 a comparison between these variables was made for two 30-year standard climate periods: 1961-1990 and 1991-2020, respectively. A comparison of climate characteristics for cited two standard periods are compared with those for the period 2071-2100 using projection data of global climate models. Interpretation of the results is focused on their application to adaptation planning to mitigate impacts of global climate warming on touristic sector in Croatia.
The results emphasize the significance of shifting climate characteristics across these regions and their potential implications for tourism adaptation planning. By focusing on these changes, this study aims to support the development of robust strategies to mitigate the impacts of global warming on Croatia's tourism sector. Access to reliable climate data and projections is critical for ensuring the resilience and sustainability of this vital economic sector in the face of ongoing climate change.
Acknowledgment: This research was conducted in the scope of the research project COMMITMENT, financed by Institute for Tourism through Next Generation Fund (CroRis ID- 9574).
How to cite: Pandzic, K., Lkso, T., and Marković Vukadin, I.: Climate Study Insights for the Tourism Sector: Analysis of Selected Pilot Regions in Croatia, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11028, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11028, 2025.
The Late Quaternary period was characterized by the widespread extinction of over 50% of global megafaunal species, followed by a rapid decline in biodiversity. The relative roles of adverse climatic conditions and the emergence of modern humans in these extinctions remain unresolved due to the sparsity of palaeoecological evidence. Here we present a new spatially explicit dynamical model (ICCP Global Mammal Model, IGMM) that simulates climate-induced changes in habitat suitability and biomass distribution of more than 2000 terrestrial mammal species, incorporating dispersion, competition, and predation as functions of time and across the globe. Forced with transient climate simulations for the Late Quaternary period, the model reproduces well the observed global distribution of mammal population biomass and species richness. The glacial-interglacial transitions, with the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in particular, were marked by dramatic changes in habitat suitability of mammals, followed by global modulations in population biomass, species composition and biodiversity. The present model may help elucidate the climate-ecological interactions that contributed to the loss of megafauna in the Late Quaternary period, providing insights into the potential drivers of future biodiversity crisis.
How to cite: Venugopal, T., Timmermann, A., Raia, P., Ruan, J., Zeller, E., Castiglione, S., and Girardi, G.: Climate impacts on Late Quaternary megafauna: A global dynamical modelling approach, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7948, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7948, 2025.
Posters virtual: Fri, 2 May, 14:00–15:45 | vPoster spot 2
EGU25-9225 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS30
Decadal Climate Variability and Its Impact on Mangrove Ecosystems of the Southwestern Coast, IndiaFri, 02 May, 14:00–15:45 (CEST) | vP2.19
The mangrove ecosystem, a wetland forest found in tropical and subtropical coastal regions, is influenced by key factors such as tide height, salinity, precipitation, and temperature. This study focuses on understanding the impact of these factor’s decadal changes on three mangrove vegetation patches (Kozhikode, Ernakulam, and Kollam) on the southwestern coast of India. For this study, the recent past (2012-2022) rainfall and temperature data from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) and tide height data collected from INCOIS were used. Land surface temperature (LST) data based on MODIS and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) and Salinity Index (SI) based on Landsat 8 were extracted using Google Earth Engine. The average annual rainfall at Kozhikode, Ernakulam and Kollam are 2934 mm, 3082 mm and 2305 mm, respectively. The land surface temperature has an almost similar seasonal trend across all three mangrove sites, varying between 25 °C to 31 °C in different seasons. The annual average tide height is observed to be highest at Kozhikode (0.97 m) and lowest in Kollam (0.49 m), whereas the annual average SI is observed to be highest in Kochi (0.13) and lowest in Kozhikode (0.10).
Evaluating vegetation changes using the EVI is essential for assessing the system’s effectiveness in protecting coastal areas from floods and guiding the planning of restoration and protective measures. The correlation coefficient between EVI and other climate variables was used to understand its impact on vegetation. Salinity, monsoon rainfall and summer LST are observed to be negatively correlated with the EVI in all three study areas. In contrast, during the southwest monsoon season, the tide height and LST positively correlate with EVI. This study revealed that optimum rainfall, salinity, and LST conditions are favourable for its growth, beyond which it negatively impacts vegetation compared to the rise in the tide height.
How to cite: Sudesan, S., Singh, U., Shyamrao Wable, P., Sasidharan, S., and Kalpuzha Ashtamoorthy, S.: Decadal Climate Variability and Its Impact on Mangrove Ecosystems of the Southwestern Coast, India, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9225, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9225, 2025.
