Impact of climate change on wildbeesand pollination service

Within the NCCS programme «Decision Support for Dealing with Climate Change in Switzerland» (NCCS-Impacts) actionable climate services for the environment, economy and society will be developed from 2023 to 2026. The aim of the project «Impacts of climate change on ecosystem services in Switzerland» is to describe the projected changes in ecosystem services and functions caused by climate change for the forest, agriculture and aquatic ecosystems.

As part of this broader initiative the EGU presentation will focus on the impact of climate change on wild-bees and pollination service in Switzerland up to 2074 as one of the most important ecosystem services and additionally related to other ecosystem services such as agricultural production. We will demonstrate how we model a high-resolution index of pollination service using a hierarchical framework at local scale considering species occurrence data from species distribution models, habitat indices related to floral resources and nesting habitat, pollination relevant species traits and pollination dependent crops. For future ESS projections we use the CH2018 climate scenarios that are based on socioeconomic mitigation pathways. Wild-bee monitoring data from the Agricultural species and habitats’ monitoring programme in Switzerland is used to validate the pollination service index. Preliminary results show that the impact of climate change on pollination service is strongly influenced by the pollination dependent crop, the region and pollination relevant species traits.