Numerical modelling of stresses and deformation in the Eurasian tectonic plate through Bayesian inversion

We use a 2D mechanical model in the context of Bayesian inference to constrain the relative contribution of driving and resistive forces to observed stress directions and GNSS velocities in the Eurasia plate. Plate boundary tractions will be dependent on the relative velocity of the bounding plates. The finite element model includes major fault zones and viscoelastic geological provinces following Hasterok et al. (2022). Horizontal gravitational forces from lateral variations of gravitational potential energy are derived from the density model of Fullea et al. (2021). We use the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm to sample fault resistive shear tractions, viscosities, and magnitudes of horizontal gravitational forces, mantle convective tractions, and plate interaction tractions with adjacent plates. We discuss first results of marginal distributions of fault slip rates and rakes, vertical axis rotation rates, and horizontal stress magnitudes.