The effects of Land use changes and climate variability on hydrological changes in the Shakkar watershed and supporting the development of sustainable water management strategies

Understanding the hydrological impacts of  Land use (LU) changes and climate variability is vital for effective water resource management in river basins. This study uses the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to assess hydrological processes in the Shakkar watershed, a sub-basin of the Narmada River in Madhya Pradesh, India. The research quantifies the effects of LU changes and climate variability on key hydrological components, such as water yield, surface runoff, evapotranspiration (ET), and base flow, utilizing high-resolution MSWEP v2.8 precipitation data corrected with quantile mapping (QM). A multi-objective calibration approach incorporating Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) and Relative Volume Error (RVE) ensures accurate model parameterization. Variability trends in rainfall and streamflow across three decades (1989-2019) were assessed using the Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator. This study aims to bridge critical gaps in understanding the interplay between climate and LU changes, providing insights into their cumulative and individual impacts on water resources. Anticipated outcomes include identifying areas within the watershed most vulnerable to hydrological changes and supporting the development of sustainable water management strategies. The findings are expected to guide regional water resource planning and improve resilience against climatic variability by demonstrating the utility of advanced modeling techniques and high-resolution datasets in watershed management.