Posters virtual: Thu, 1 May, 14:00–15:45 | vPoster spot 2
Citizen science in marine biodiversity monitoring encounters several challenges such as obtaining unstructured data which may lead to underestimate species presence or introduce spatial bias. In addition to those inherent to the marine environment. To address these challenges, efforts must be directed towards (1) enhancing participant engagement to increase the volume of data collected, and (2) developing methods to standardize the unstructured data obtained.
As of December 2024th, over 260.000 observations have been recorded during the course of four years by more than 870 volunteer participants documenting over 2900 species, including some historical observations, in the Coastal region of Catalonia, located in the northeast of Spain. These observations have been reported and validated in the citizen science observatory MINKA (minka-sdg.org).
This presentation will highlight the lessons learnt through the past four years, the opportunities and the remaining challenges to address.
How to cite: Companys, B., Alvarez, A., Salvador, X., Liñan, S., and Piera, J.: Citizen Science in marine biodiversity unstructured monitoring , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8787, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8787, 2025.
Environmental communication is crucial in shaping the narrative around the aggravated issues like climate change, global warming, sea-level rise, air-pollution and pushing for impactful actions. With the burgeoning economy and rising population, the large democracy of India is facing a critical issue of air pollution in major cities, with Delhi consistently ranking first due to its persistently high air quality index (AQI) throughout the year. The Commission on Air Quality Management (CAQM) of India, a statutory government body, works diligently to improve the air quality of Delhi and the National Capital Region (NCR). In July 2022, in accordance with the directives of the Honourable Supreme Court of India, CAQM launched the CAQM policy to find a permanent solution to air pollution, aiming to develop an inclusive policy addressing all sectors contributing to and affected by pollution. This study aims to explore the ways in which environmental challenges, such as air pollution, are conveyed to both citizens and policy makers through environmental communication. Upon analysing 277 news articles from eight leading news agencies, including four newspapers and four news channels, over a six-month period prior to the emergence of the CAQM policy in 2022, it was observed that news coverage is heavily concentrated during the post-monsoon season (with 68% of the analysed news articles concentrated in October and November). This period in North India is prominently under focus due to 'stubble burning' activities mainly occurring in the states of Punjab and Haryana. Hence, a strong connection between the news articles and active number of fire locations has also been found. However, it was found that news articles do not proportionately reflect fluctuations in the Air Quality Index (AQI), for example, no news articles were noted on December 23rd and 24th 2022, despite AQI values reaching 524 and 522 respectively. Similarly, from January to March 2022, news coverage was minimal despite high AQI levels, indicating that coverage is more linked to periods of higher fire activity in Punjab and Haryana, rather than AQI levels in Delhi. We also attempted to find a possible connection between the issues raised in the news media during the period of our interest and the CAQM policy that was formed in April 2022. It is noticed that, while the CAQM policy aimed to improve air quality and, consequently, public health, media coverage paid relatively less attention to the health implications (barely 56 articles mentioning health or mortality). The recommendations for a new policy did rise but again from November 10th to December 5th, with 96 articles published during this period, suggesting a period-specific coverage. This indicates that media reporting focuses heavily on stubble burning, whereas the CAQM policy treats it as just another pollution source, without special emphasis. Hence, for our case study, it is noted that the media's coverage of environmental communication seems to be less comprehensive and lacks depth compared to the detailed measures outlined in CAQM policy addressing air pollution.
How to cite: Pandit, S., Govardhan, G., and Ghude, S.: Analysing the role of environmental communication with respect to CAQM policy on Delhi air quality, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11694, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11694, 2025.
Tea, Camellia sinensis (L.) Kuntze is a globally significant crop, with approximately 6.6 billion cups consumed daily, making it the second most consumed beverage after water. It supports millions of livelihoods and contributes significantly to regional economies, particularly in Africa. Despite its importance, monitoring tea plantations in the continent remains manual as there are no spatially-explicit maps, thereby hindering efficient quantification of forest and biodiversity changes associated with tea cultivation, for instance. Here, we present the first high-resolution map of tea plantations in Africa, developed using computer vision techniques integrated with high-resolution satellite imagery and ground-truth polygons. Our approach achieves unprecedented spatial accuracy in delineating the area under tea cultivation with an overall accuracy of 97%. This milestone lays a foundation for spatially-explicit monitoring of tea plantations, enabling applications such as yield estimation, pest and disease detection, protected area encroachment analysis, carbon stock assessments, biodiversity impacts investigations, and evaluation of climate-driven range shifts, among others.
How to cite: Oluoch, W. A., Drees, L., Wegner, J. D., and Wuepper, D.: Mapping Tea Plantations in Africa with Computer Vision, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11581, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11581, 2025.
The water engineering group of the University of Brescia is active in the Horizon Europe project LOESS (https://loess-project.eu/) since its start in June 2023, together with other nineteen European –of which two Italian– partners. The final goals of the project are to raise awareness on the importance of soil and of its functions, to increase soil literacy across Europe and to help developing innovative educational materials and practices.
To do so, we –together with the other two Italian partners– created an Italian Community of Practice (CoP) and engaged it in providing an overview of the current level of soil–related knowledge and teaching programmes and materials, in order to identify the gap between educational offer and needs amongst different levels of the society (from pupils to students to citizens). The Italian CoP, led by the University of Brescia, is composed of 60 members from both the higher education and the research community, as well as from the primary and secondary education levels (teachers and pupils), the productive sectors (farmers and spatial planners), the politics world (local administrators) and the civil society (NGOs and associations). The CoP, or various sub–groups of people from it, has been involved in multiple activities since the start of the project, and this contribution intends to report on them.
In March 2022 we launched the WormEx II experiment, an ongoing educational experiment and a citizen–based participatory research (CBPR) performed in the garden of the Liceo Copernico High School in Brescia, in view of attracting the students’ attention on the hydrological role played by macropores, by observing some aspects of earthworm digging activity.
On World Soil Day 2023 we –together with the other two Italian partners– performed a widespread infiltration experiment involving classes from 5 Primary Schools over the Italian territory, i.e. one in Lombardy, two in Emilia Romagna, one in Sicily and one in Sardinia. A total of 140 students and 7 teachers took part in the experimental phase, after which they all joined a virtual meeting where around 50 students (between 4 and 20 per school) volunteered in reporting the experiment result to the CoP, which had previously contributed in the design of the experiment itself.
Between November and December 2024 we organised and conducted three co–creation events on Augmented Reality applications for soil health education in two 3rd-year classes of a local High School in the province of Brescia. The activity produced 22 projects created with a commercial app–prototyping tool from an international project partner.
Finally on 5 December 2024 we –together with the other two Italian partners– organized and hosted a dissemination event about World Soil Day, with considerations regarding the links between soil, peace and sustainability. The public event involved two Primary School classes (one in Emilia Romagna and one in Sicily) that reported on a previously–held laboratory activity on the topic, as well as university students and professors.
These activities showed how much our society is interested in taking an active part in research if allowed.
How to cite: Peli, M., Barontini, S., and Grossi, G.: Experiences of citizen science and co-creation within the activities of the Italian chapter of the LOESS project, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18702, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18702, 2025.
Planktonic bacteria and archaea play a key role in river nutrient biogeochemical cycling; however, their respective community assembly and how to maintain their diversity are not well know in dammed rivers. Therefore, a seasonal survey of planktonic bacterial and archaeal community compositions and related environmental factors was conducted in 16 cascade reservoirs on the Wujiang River and the Pearl River in southwest China to understand the above mechanisms. The result showed that deterministic processes dominated bacterial and archaeal community assembly. Planktonic bacteria and archaea in dammed rivers had different biogeographic distributions, and water temperature was a key controlling factor. Water temperature can directly or indirectly affect the microbial diversity. Planktonic bacterial diversity increased with increasing water temperature, while archaea showed the opposite trend; the overall diversity of bacteria and archaea was no significant changes with changeable water temperature. Abundant microbes had a stronger distance-decay relationship than middle and rare ones, and the relationship was stronger in winter and spring than in summer and autumn. The different responses of planktonic bacterial and archaeal diversity to water temperature could be due to their different phylogenetic diversity. This ultimately maintained the stability of total microbial community diversity. This study reveals the different responses of planktonic bacteria and archaea to water temperature and perfects the theoretical framework for planktonic microbial biogeography in dammed rivers.
How to cite: Liu, N., Wang, B., and Yang, M.: The different responses of planktonic bacteria and archaea to water temperature maintain the stability of their community diversity in dammed rivers, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6325, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6325, 2025.
As a pioneering pan-European distributed research infrastructure, DANUBIUS-RI is unique to Europe and the international community, focused on interdisciplinary research on River-Sea systems. At a time of unprecedented environmental and climate driven change, it is critical we understand the influence of land-sea interactions on coastal and ocean areas, how these will change with the intensification of extreme events and seek sustainable climate adaptation solutions. DANUBIUS-RI is a trans-disciplinary research gateway, enabling land-sea researchers with access to data, expertise, training and key study sites, along with their associated local assets.
DANUBIUS-RI responds to the following major Research Priorities to assess:
- Water Quantity: water stores and flows across River-Sea continua for sustainable water resource management and mitigate against extreme events.
- Sediment Balance: sediment dynamics in source-to-sink systems, to support sustainable sediment management.
- Nutrients and Pollutants: independent and combined effects of nutrients and pollutants (in both water and sediments) at River-Sea System scales, to establish the critical thresholds needed for tracking progress towards good status.
- Climate Change: ongoing impacts of Climate Change, and improve adaptation measures within and across River-Sea Systems.
- Extreme Events: extreme event occurrence and impact severity on River-Sea Systems, for floods and droughts, to support cost-effective nature-based solution development, disaster mitigation, and management.
- Protecting and Restoring Ecosystems and Biodiversity: how changing River-Sea Systems affect future ecosystem service provision, and their sustainability. Understand the relationship between biodiversity and connectivity across River-Sea Systems and its response to multiple stressors and support climate adaptation.
- Digital Twin: and build high resolution, multi-dimensional digital representations of River-Sea Systems, that stakeholders.
Besides access to Open and FAIR Data, DANUBIUS_RI provides key interdisciplinary services encompassing in situ measurement, satellite EO observations, numerical modelling and management scenario development.
The Services are grouped in 7 major categories, working with you or on your behalf:
- Digital and non-digital data, including metadata, data and archived samples .
- Tools, methods and expert support, including access to facilities and equipment.
- Measurement and analytical support, including physical, chemical, biological, biogeochemical, ecotoxicological, hydromorphological, sedimentological, and bathymetric sampling and analyses.
- Diagnosis and Impact, through modelling and impact assessment analysesthat harness data from previous or expected results (diagnostic) or through forecasts and ‘what if’ scenarios (from models).
- Solution Development, connecting you with the right partners across wide-ranging scientific expertise to develop solutions for your specific challenges.
- Tests, Audit, Validation and Certification: We validate and quality assure outputs, and provide DANUBIUS Commons accreditation and Accredited Service Providers certification services.
- Build capacity through the design/co-design, development and delivery of training courses for companies, innovators, authorities and researchers in the four areas of expertise (Observation, Analysis, Modelling, and Impact), and partner with you to organize bespoke conferences and workshops to address River-Sea System challenges.
The Research Infrastructure, accepted on the ESFRI Roadmap in 2016, is expected to become an operational ERIC during 2025.
How to cite: Stanica, A., Tyler, A., Scarrott, R., and Consortium, D. R. I.: DANUBIUS-RI, The International Centre for Advanced Studies on River-Sea Systems: An RI for the river-sea challenges of the 21st Century , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11716, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11716, 2025.
The invasive alien, African giant snail, Lissachatina fulica, considered as a pest, poses a significant threat to ecosystems, human health and agriculture across tropical and subtropical regions. Therefore, in order to address the challenge posed by the presence of this animal outside its original habitat it is essential to to understand its current and potential future distribution. Thus, this study, which highlights the critical role of regional bioclimatic datasets in improving the predictive accuracy of species distribution models (SDMs) particularly for invasive species in ecosystems with complex orography or climate, takes advantage of global and regional bioclimatic datasets to model the future distribution of L. fulica in the Canary Islands, emphasizing the influence of the archipelago’s complex orography and unique microclimates.
Our approach integrates two distinct datasets as input of the SDM Maxent. First, we used the global distribution of L. fulica from GBif and a list of bioindicators taken from the WorldClim and Chelsa datasets to train the model, which allowed us to capture the environmental niche of the species under various climatic conditions. We then applied the BICI-ULL dataset, a high-resolution bioclimatic dataset specifically developed for the Canary Islands that accounts for the intricate topography and varied microclimates of the archipelago, providing an unprecedented resolution for regional analyses. This dataset allows us to perform our projections in two different future periods, mid- (2041-2060) and end-of-century (2081-2100) and under two scenarios for greenhouse gas concentration, namely the CMIP5 representative concentration pathway 4.5 and 8.5 (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5).
The results indicate that while the current distribution of L. fulica in the Canary Islands is limited to the wetter areas of the archipelago, namely western islands such as La Palma and El Hierro and the north of Tenerife, future projections under the CMIP5 RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios reveal notable changes. For both temporal periods and driven by warming temperatures and changing precipitation patterns, habitat suitability shows a greater shrinkage remaining only a small favorable area in the northern part of La Palma. However, future projections performed with the global datasets show opposite results, that is, a large number of high-suitability zones throughout the entire archipelago in which the probability of the presence of L. fulica is very high.
The use of BICI-ULL allowed us to identify future patterns in the high-suitability zones that would have been overestimated using global datasets. This underscores the need of incorporating region-specific data when modeling species distributions in topographically complex areas such as oceanic islands. The findings highlight the importance of developing regional datasets, like BICI-ULL, that can capture microclimatic variability. Besides, this approach serves as a model for addressing similar challenges in other biodiversity-rich but vulnerable regions, contributing to the broader understanding of invasive species dynamics.
How to cite: Barragan, R., Sosa-Guillén, P., Tondreau, P. S., Pérez, J. C., Expósito, F. J., and Díaz, J. P.: Evaluating the Importance of Region-Specific Bioclimatic Datasets in Projecting the Future Distribution of Lissachatina fulica in Complex Landscapes, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11483, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11483, 2025.
Climate change mitigation strategies face disruption from multiple sources: extreme climate events, socioeconomic crises, geopolitical conflicts, technological breakthroughs, as well as the abrupt transitions and disruptive actions entailed by achieving the stringent Paris Agreement goals. While these disruptive events can fundamentally alter long-term mitigation scenarios, the current literature does not sufficiently assess their implications. Existing long-term mitigation scenario narratives and modelling frameworks, using Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), lack systematic approaches to analyse their impacts. To address this gap, we introduce the Disruptive Events-Resilient Pathways (DERPs) framework, which provides structured narratives to systematically explore and assess the resilience of climate actions to the impacts of external disruptions and entailed abrupt transitions. To operationalise this framework, we employ multiple IAMs to analyse case studies of distinct disruptions: intensifying heatwaves and droughts affecting energy systems, and the rapid uptake of Direct Air Carbon Capture and Storage (DACCS) technology. Our analysis highlights the inherent limitations of IAMs in capturing the full complexity of disruptive events. We offer novel methodological approaches to overcome them. Our results provide insights into the interplay between the impacts of disruptive events and mitigation scenarios.
We introduce a conceptual framework, alongside qualitative narratives and use cases for validation, to guide the development of Disruptive Events-Resilient Pathways (DERPs). This framework systematically explores the impacts of disruptive events on mitigation and adaptation strategies, allowing to evaluate their resilience to such disruptions. Similar to the widely-adopted SSP scenario framework, which maps socioeconomic developments onto the extent of challenges to mitigation and adaptation (O’Neill et al., 2017), the DERPs framework comprises two dimensions, thereby enabling breaking the developed spectrum into four blocks of narratives, plus an intermediate narrative that reflects current trends. We further reflect on the connection between the DERP and SSP frameworks in the discussion section below.
The DERP dimensions and underlying narratives draw on concrete examples, to make the framework more comprehensive and comprehensible, but remain sufficiently generalisable to allow the framework to serve as a blueprint for conducting similar types of mitigation and adaptation analyses in the future. In determining the two dimensions of the DERP framework, we benefit from van Ginkel et al. (2020), who had proposed two dimensions for exploring how climate change tipping points can cause socioeconomic tipping points (SETPs). In the DERP framework, the focus shifts from climate change tipping points to disruptive events as the drivers of socioeconomic impacts, and on assessing societal resilience to these impacts. Accordingly, the two dimensions are defined as follows:
- climate action effectiveness: this refers to significant and deliberate change in the way societies and systems transition towards mitigating, or preparing for (i.e. adapting to), climate change
- resilience to socioeconomic impacts: this refers to the capacity to withstand unintended shifts in socioeconomic structures that may occur due to abrupt transitions or insufficient mitigation or adaptation failure, and the resulting climate change impacts.
How to cite: Al Khourdajie, A., Nikas, A., Frilingou, N., Mittal, S., van de Ven, D. J., Fragkos, P., McJeon, H., Byers, E., Keppo, I., Peters, G., McCollum, D., Zisarou, E., Hawkes, A., and Gambhir, A.: Navigating the unexpected: The impact of disruptive events on mitigation scenarios, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6022, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6022, 2025.
Severe weather events increasingly threaten the safety of mass gathering events (MGE), particularly open-air exhibitions and artistic performances. In 2015, Milano, Italy, hosted the World Expo from May to October. The exhibition was located 15 km away from Milano, covered 1.1 km2, and shaped as a long boulevard of 3 km length. Pools and waterways in and around the Expo area were elements of primary importance. During the 184 opening days, the attendance reached 21 mln visitors, with a daily average of 115,000 visitors. In 2017, the artists Christo and Jeanne-Claude created the temporary, site-specific artwork known as The Floating Piers, built in 2016 at Lake Iseo, 75 km from Milano, Italy. It was made up of 70,000 square meters of yellow fabric supported by a modular floating dock system. These walkable piers connected Monteisola Isle to the lake coast. The floating piers exhibitions attracted 1.2 mln visitors over its 16-day run, with peaks of more than 100,000 visitors per day.
This work describes how the regional weather service planned and operated a dedicated monitoring and forecast weather service to reduce the impacts of severe weather during these two MGEs, increasing safety conditions for the visitors. Finally, Arpa Lombardia will be engaged in the weather forecast assistance for the next Winter Olympic Games in 2026, hosted in Milano, Bormio, and Livigno.
How to cite: Cremonini, R., Minardi, G. P., Bechini, R., and Cazzuli, O.: Reducing the impact of severe weather on mass gathering events: the Lombardia, Italy, experience., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13485, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13485, 2025.
This study investigates the spatiotemporal characteristics of maximum temperatures and heat wave (HW) vulnerability across India under the context of global warming. Using high-resolution gridded surface air temperature (SAT) data (1951–2022) from the India Meteorological Department (IMD), three regions of maximum temperatures and distinct heat wave zones were identified, highlighting their divergence. Local radiative heating and anomalous wind flows from maximum temperature zones were identified as primary drivers of heat waves, with a notable increase in HW occurrences in southeast India post-1970, attributed to global warming. Machine Learning (ML) models, including Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), multiple linear regression, and support vector machines, were employed alongside CMIP6 climate models to predict maximum SAT for India (1981–2022). ANN outperformed other ML models with minimal biases and high accuracy, showcasing its capability to enhance HW predictability. Future projections (2023–2050) reveal a gradual rise on SAT during March–May, indicating heightened HW risks. Additionally, HW intensification during El Niño decay years was linked to anomalous anticyclonic circulations, reduced cloud cover, and enhanced shortwave radiation. This caused a rise in discomfort indices and extreme temperature hours, particularly in northwest and central India. Findings emphasize the critical role of ML techniques in improving HW forecasts and guiding adaptation strategies. These insights are vital for agriculture, health, urban planning, and disaster mitigation, equipping stakeholders to address escalating climate risks and societal impacts effectively
Keywords: Heat Waves (HW); Maximum Temperatures; Machine Learning (ML); Climate Change; Vulnerability Analysis
How to cite: Satyanarayana, Dr. G. C.: Assessing Heat Wave Vulnerability in India Using Machine Learning and Climate Model Insights, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15035, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15035, 2025.
This study presents the design and implementation of a comprehensive Hail Operational Aircraft Information Dashboard system. This system, which aims at user-friendliness and a customizable visualization platform, is a helpful tool for enhancing decision-making and optimizing cloud seeding operations for hail suppression. It leverages real-time and historical data, making it accessible and easy to coordinate operations with flight crews. The dashboard display system's key functionalities include real-time flight monitoring, which displays critical flight parameters such as flight duration, cloud seeding duration, and flight path for operational aircraft. The system also offers insightful data visualizations that cover weekly, monthly, and seasonal trends of hail suppression efforts, providing a wealth of information that supports the users with a comprehensive understanding of the operations. The dashboard system features a user-friendly frontend interface developed with ReactJS, a high-performance backend run by the FastAPI Python framework for efficient data handling and API development, and SQLAlchemy as the object-relational-mapper to store all flight and hail suppression data. Additionally, and as an innovative approach, this study explores the use of Large Language Models (LLMs) for text-to-SQL (TTS) conversion, allowing users to submit natural language queries about hail operations, which the LLM translates into SQL queries to retrieve relevant data. The dashboard visual system incorporates additional parameters for operational decisions, such as flight altitude, fuel consumption data, and seeding information. This system is expected to significantly enhance situational awareness for flight crews, providing them with a comprehensive view of the operations. Previously, these users relied on disparate sources of information and less integrated tools to manage their operations. This heightened awareness will help coordinate unit and flight crews to make better decisions and improve hail suppression efforts.
How to cite: Kumar, S., Tani, S., Paulitsch, H., and Schreck, T.: "AI-Integrated Operational Dashboard for Hail Defense Operational Systems", EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14032, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14032, 2025.
Understanding the hydrological impacts of Land use (LU) changes and climate variability is vital for effective water resource management in river basins. This study uses the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to assess hydrological processes in the Shakkar watershed, a sub-basin of the Narmada River in Madhya Pradesh, India. The research quantifies the effects of LU changes and climate variability on key hydrological components, such as water yield, surface runoff, evapotranspiration (ET), and base flow, utilizing high-resolution MSWEP v2.8 precipitation data corrected with quantile mapping (QM). A multi-objective calibration approach incorporating Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) and Relative Volume Error (RVE) ensures accurate model parameterization. Variability trends in rainfall and streamflow across three decades (1989-2019) were assessed using the Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator. This study aims to bridge critical gaps in understanding the interplay between climate and LU changes, providing insights into their cumulative and individual impacts on water resources. Anticipated outcomes include identifying areas within the watershed most vulnerable to hydrological changes and supporting the development of sustainable water management strategies. The findings are expected to guide regional water resource planning and improve resilience against climatic variability by demonstrating the utility of advanced modeling techniques and high-resolution datasets in watershed management.
How to cite: Gopalakrishnan Balamurgan, B., Rientjes, T., and Tügel, F.: The effects of Land use changes and climate variability on hydrological changes in the Shakkar watershed and supporting the development of sustainable water management strategies, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17037, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17037, 2025.
Climate change poses significant challenges to Small Island Developing States (SIDS) through heat extremes, hydrometeorological extremes and sea level rise. The societal impacts of these climate hazards are closely connected to both quantifiable and non-monetary loss and damage across multiple sectors and to presently or potentially insurable risks. One type of insurance that has been explored in many developing country contexts but is particularly sensitive to the recurrence frequency of extreme events is climate index insurance (analogous to parametric insurance), in which the contract is based on a geophysical index, rather than verified material losses.
This study explores the historical risk of heat and precipitation extreme events in the small Caribbean Island nation of St. Kitts and Nevis over the period of available record (1981-2024) and the projected frequency and severity of such events over the next 50 years (2025-2075), using historical analysis, model data and Monte Carlo statistical simulation methods. Observational data will include merged station/satellite data from the products of the Climate Hazards Group at University of Santa Barbara (CHIRPS, CHIRP and CHIRTS) and may include local station data. Climate model data will include output from CMIP6 runs of the NMME and Copernicus model suites. The Monte Carlo methods used for estimating extreme event frequencies are based on earlier research (Siebert and Ward 2011, Siebert 2016). As climate risks increase, theoretical index/parametric insurance premiums are expected to increase.
Since the frequency of threshold crossing extreme events is the primary basis for pricing index (parametric) insurance contracts, this study will explore the evolving price of relevant parametric insurance contracts for specified return liabilities (defined through recurrence interval). This project is being conducted by the company Climate Analytics and is funded by the UN Office for Project Services (UNOPS). This methodology may inform the quantification of a national loss and damage policy and plan, in coordination with multiple stakeholders in St. Kitts and Nevis and the Caribbean Climate Risk Insurance Facility (CCRIF).
How to cite: Siebert, A.: Potential Index Insurance Changes under Climate Change in St. Kitts and Nevis: A Case Study Using Monte Carlo methods, observational and GCM data, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-14530, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14530, 2025.
Humans’ attachment to the place where they live is widely recognized. Nevertheless, landscapes can be characterized by aspects that make their communities prone to natural hazards. When a disaster occurs, the relocation of the people involved can be necessary. Such a relocation, however, can be opposed by interested communities, given the place attachment (PA) to the environment at risk. For this reason, a clear understanding of this aspect is mandatory to better calibrate risk adaptation measures involving relocation. In this work, a systematic review of the role of PA in the management of relocation measures was carried out. The review followed the PRISMA protocol (Preferred Re-porting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses). The findings indicate that generally, strong PA is associated with a low propensity for relocation, regardless of risk perception or awareness levels. This low propensity is related mainly to the fact that the place of relocation cannot satisfy the symbolic needs associated with the place of origin. On the other hand, PA is often linked to a greater propensity to take care of the place in which people live. Therefore, it can lead to the realization of adaptive behaviors. From this perspective, among scholars, there is consensus that PA needs to be considered in the construction of strategies for natural hazard management involving relocation. In addition, the literature shows that there have also been attempts to develop attachments to new relocation sites. These attempts have had mixed results. Therefore, it is even more important to further investigate the role of PA as a nonstructural measure to improve the resilience of populations affected by natural disasters.
How to cite: Carone, M. T., Vennari, C., and Antronico, L.: Place attachment and relocation, a difficult combination, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6835, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6835, 2025.
The Water-Energy-Food (WEF) nexus has emerged as a critical framework for addressing resource interdependencies and building resilience against climate change impacts. Despite its growing prominence, significant knowledge gaps remain, particularly in quantifying resilience and integrating cross-sectoral dynamics into actionable policymaking. This review synthesizes existing literature on the WEF nexus, focusing on its evolution, current trends, and resilience frameworks. Employing meta-analysis, this study quantifies key trends in WEF nexus resilience research, identifying dominant methodologies, geographic patterns, and gaps in policy and practice.
The findings reveal a global emphasis on conceptual frameworks and modelling approaches, with limited application to localized contexts, especially in India. To bridge this gap, this study highlights the need for policy coherence analyses and system dynamics modelling to assess resilience of the WEF-nexus under various climate scenarios. Thus, providing actionable insights for researchers and policymakers, emphasizing the importance of integrated, scalable, and data-driven approaches to enhancing the resilience of WEF systems.
How to cite: Cheranda, T. M., Santhanam, H., and Murthy, I. K.: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Water-Energy-Food Nexus Resilience: Global Insights and Implications for India, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9262, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9262, 2025.
Climate change has led to the shrinkage of ice sheets and glaciers, contributing to sea level rise, particularly in regions like West Antarctica. Over the past several decades, this area has experienced one of the most pronounced increases in temperature and precipitation. Projections suggested increase in extreme precipitation by the end of the 21st century. Together with the expected deepening of the Amundsen Sea Low (ASL), these changes play a significant role in Antarctic ice sheet's mass in the future. This study aims to analyze a spatio-temporal precipitation variability and its extreme values in West Antarctica as a response to ASL characteristics. To analyze the relationships, we used a number of parameters describing ASL (average pressure field, the central pressure, the relative pressure at the center, longitude of the ASL, and the distance to the ASL center), and parameters for precipitation (daily totals and the 95th percentile) derived from the historical European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA5 reanalysis data. The study is focused on natural zones along the coast corresponding to glacial basins such as Getz Ice Shelf, Thwaites Glacier, Pine Island glaciers, and Abbot Ice Shelf. Relationships between precipitation and ASL characteristics were assessed using Spearman rank correlation coefficients in each grid cell of the studied domain. Overall, the highest 95th percentile values, approximately 35 mm, were observed along the western coast of the Antarctic Peninsula. These values decreased to 15 mm along the remaining coastline of West Antarctica and further to 5 mm over the continental areas. Extreme precipitation had well-detected seasonality, with maximum precipitation totals during the austral autumn/spring seasons. In average, extreme precipitation events covered approximately 4.7–4.9% of basin areas. Over the last 30 years, the tendencies of extreme precipitation intensified the observed spatial differences: the 95th percentile increased over more humid areas with a trend of 4 mm/decade and decreased in continental regions by 2 mm/decade. The meridional position of ASL impacts weather and precipitation over the region much more than changes in its latitudinal remoteness to the coast. The ASL movement towards the west caused decreased precipitation near the Amundsen Sea and increased over the Antarctic Peninsula. Extreme precipitation was more sensitive to changes in ASL location than total precipitation. This study will contribute to understanding the occurrence of extreme precipitation events under climate change.
How to cite: Pysarenko, L. and Pishniak, D.: Change in precipitation as a response to the Amundsen Sea Low characteristics in region of West Antarctica, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12275, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12275, 2025.
