System Dynamic Unveiled: Exploring Groundwater and Socio-economic ties in Senegal’s North littoral coastal aquifer

Groundwater resources play a critical role in socio-economic growth, providing vital support for agriculture, industry, and domestic needs. Yet, their sustainable management remains a global challenge due to the complex interdependencies between environmental and socio-economic factors. Traditional hydrogeological investigations, which primarily focus on pollutant sources identification and geochemical processes, often fail to address the dynamic feedback mechanisms, temporal changes, and non-linearities inherent to groundwater degradation. This research adopts a holistic approach – where a systems’ behavior emerges from the interactions of its parts – to unravel the intricate connections between groundwater systems and socio-economic development.

The study aims to identify the key drivers of groundwater degradation and their downstream impacts on socio-economic activities. A System Dynamic (SD) model was employed to capture the reciprocal interactions between hydrological, environmental, and socio-economic factors over time by integrating groundwater quality data (2005-2024), socio-economic indicators (e.g. population growth, urbanization) from the Senegalese National Agency of Statistics and Demography, and remote-sensing data (e.g. Land use changes) with a 10-year time step to reflect physical and chemical system changes. SD is a simulation-based methodology used to analyze and understand the behavior of complex systems over time. It relies on several key principles such as feedback loops, which are closed chains of cause-and-effect relationships where an output of a system influences its input.

The findings present a conceptual framework mapping the relationships between socio-economic and biophysical subsystems, emphasizing the direction and magnitude of change in groundwater resources. This approach highlights the cascading effects of unsustainable groundwater management on socio-economic stability and environmental health. Indeed, the heavy reliance of sectors such agriculture, urbanization, mining, and industry on water resources is expected to escalate demand intensifying withdrawal and causing groundwater depletion. This increases the risk of seawater intrusion aquifer degradation. Additionally, these sectors impact groundwater quality through pollution from inadequate sanitation, irrigation return fluxes, and industrial waste.

This research provides valuable insights for developing sustainable groundwater management strategies in Senegal and similar contexts worldwide. By addressing the feedback loops and interdependencies within groundwater systems, this interdisciplinary approach contributes to advancing water resource management and mitigating the challenges posed to groundwater degradation.