To better understand the increasing human impact on the water cycle and the feedbacks between hydrology and society, the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) organised the scientific decade “Panta Rhei—Everything Flows: Change in hydrology and society” (2013-2022). Significant scientific advances have been achieved, for instance, a key finding is the need to use integrated approaches to assess the co-evolution of human-water systems in order to avoid unintended consequences of human interventions over long periods of time. In this respect, substantial progress has been made in leveraging new data sources on socio-economic aspects and human behaviour, e.g., through text mining of social media posts. Much has been learned about detecting hydrological changes and attributing them to their drivers, e.g., quantifying climate effects on floods. Also, much headway has been made in understanding and modelling coupled socio-hydrological systems through combining methods from the social and natural sciences; for example, feedbacks leading to phenomena such as the levee effect can be simulated by system dynamics models. In terms of supporting adaptive water management, progress has been made, e.g., in developing participatory governance approaches, although there is still much to be done. We recommend that the community takes a broader view of the hydrologic sciences, through broadening the understanding, the discipline and training activities, while at the same time pursuing synthesis by focusing on key themes, developing innovative approaches and finding sustainable solutions to the water problems of the world.

How to cite: Kreibich, H. and the IAHS Panta Rhei community: Panta Rhei: decade of progress in research on change in hydrology and society, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15991, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15991, 2025.

Flood adaptation measures, such as levees, flood-proofing structures, nature-based solutions, and flood insurance, are essential to cope with the growing flood risk caused by climate change and urban development in flood-prone areas. However, many communities in flood zones are inadequately protected because the implementation of adaptation measures is hindered by various constraints, including cost, limitations in institutional capacity, and societal inertia. When adaptation efforts fall short relative to the desired level due to a combination of constraints, it results in an ‘adaptation gap’ and eventually leads to ‘adaptation limits’—a point in time where additional adaptation is no longer feasible and the risk becomes ‘intolerable.’ While the emerging field of socio-hydrology has made progress in studying the adaptive feedbacks from society to environmental changes, a quantitative assessment of adaptation limits and gaps has not yet been conducted.

In this paper, we introduce a novel, risk-based framework to quantify how changes in risk and adaptation constraints might result in the spatial-temporal dynamics of adaptation gaps and, ultimately, adaptation limits. With hundreds of millions of people living in flood-prone areas, understanding how these constraints affect adaptation gaps and potential limits—and where and when these limits are reached—is crucial for quantitative risk assessments. This information is particularly helpful for efforts to build resilience in the most vulnerable communities, some of which may have already reached such limits. We discuss five main categories of constraints that limit adaptation efforts, ranging from technical constraints that prevent the government from implementing levees to socio-economic constraints (such as age and income) that limit flood adaptation by households.

We argue that, without overcoming these constraints, adaptation gaps will widen under climate change, exposing increasing populations to heightened flood risk. This may then require more radical actions including relocation, as risks become intolerable. We argue that quantitative flood risk assessments must consider constraints and adaptation gaps systematically, especially where they may lead to flood adaptation limits. Without assessing these dynamic relationships, flood managers may overestimate the efficacy of flood adaptation measures and underestimate the unequal distribution of flood risks.

Reference: Aerts, Jeroen C.J.H., Paul Bates, Wouter J. Botzen, Jens de Bruijn, Jim Hall, Bart van den Hurk, Heidi Kreibich, Bruno Merz, Sanne Muis, Jaroslav Mysiak, Eric Tate, and Frans Berkhout (2024) Exploring flood adaptation limits and gaps. Nature Water, doi-org.vu-nl.idm.oclc.org/10.1038/s44221-024-00274-x

How to cite: Aerts, J. C. J. H., Bates, P. D., Botzen, W., de Bruijn, J., Hall, J. W., van den Hurk, B., Kreibich, H., Merz, B., Muis, S., Mysiak, J., Tate, E., and Berkhout, F.: Exploring the limits and gaps of flood adaptation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9192, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9192, 2025.

There is concern that more frequent flooding around the world will accelerate the vicious cycle of poverty, particularly in developing countries. There is also hope that flood control as a climate adaptation measure will bring significant socioeconomic benefits in the long term, such as improving the livelihoods of the poor, but the effects have yet to be proven. Tokyo, one of the world's largest cities, experienced frequent flooding during the Edo period (1603-1868). Did Edo, as Tokyo was then called, have the same problems with flooding and poverty that we see in developing countries today? And how did they overcome them? In this study, we collected and integrated a wide range of historical records on past floods and poverty, which historians had previously studied separately, and quantitatively demonstrated the relationship between the earliest floods and poverty. We found that areas with large numbers of poor people were more vulnerable to flood damage. It also showed that flood control exacerbated inequalities during the Edo period, when there were significant technological and budgetary constraints, but that later, as flood control was strengthened, socioeconomic inequalities were reduced. This research is the first to demonstrate the long-term socioeconomic impacts of flood control, and it presents the long-term socioeconomic impacts of climate adaptation and disaster mitigation investments for developing countries that, like Tokyo in the past, face the problem of flooding and poverty. Based on the findings of this research, we would like to contribute to deepen the discussion of social hydrology regarding the impact of flood control on long-term socioeconomic development.

How to cite: Kawasaki, A. and Nakamura, R.: How did old Tokyo overcome floods and poverty?, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9474, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9474, 2025.

Ice-jam floods present a real risk for riverine communities in cold climate regions through their often-sudden but always potentially destructive nature. This fact makes the analysis of the driving factors for residents in adopting measures against ice-jam flood hazards in the city of Fort McMurray, Canada, very relevant. By employing a structured survey that integrates the Protection Motivation Theory and the Transtheoretical Model, we identify self-efficacy, threat experience appraisal, and perceived costs as some of the key drivers influencing protective behaviors. The results also call for stage-specific, tailored interventions in concert with variation in readiness to act. Our findings clearly indicate that to realize the hoped-for increase in the adoption rate, policy approaches have to be directed to address the cost barrier, develop self-efficacy through appropriate communication strategies, and consider the peculiarities of various community groups, such as renters and transient populations. By proposing public policies, this work demonstrates how these strategies can be utilized as inputs for quantitative modeling approaches, such as agent-based modeling, to evaluate their impact on community-wide flood risk management. This research underlines the importance of integrating behavioral insights with advanced quantitative modeling tools in designing and implementing better flood risk management strategies that promote more resilient communities.

How to cite: Ghoreishi, M., Bellows, B., and Lindenschmidt, K.-E.: Enhancing Community Resilience to Ice-Jam Floods: Insights from Socioeconomic and Psychological Factors in Fort McMurray, Canada, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12942, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12942, 2025.

Global water resilience is a critical concern for both nature and society in the face of increasing environmental and socio-economic pressures. Numerous studies have produced global maps highlighting a diversity of water-related risks. Yet, efforts to understand the cumulative nature of those risks and how that information can be used for decision-making remain crucial. This study aims to provide an exploratory global mapping of water resilience risks from a social-ecological systems perspective, identifying areas where the erosion of freshwater systems resilience is most under threat. Using a multilayer spatial analysis at the basin and sub-basin scales, we integrate diverse indicators to assess water resilience functions, as described in freshwater resilience frameworks by Falkenmark & Wang-Erlandsson (2021) and Rockström et al. (2014). We have grouped risks to water resilience according to their effects on the social-ecological systems of the basins, having also integrated novel indicators of resilience loss and tipping points of terrestrial and freshwater systems. Based on preliminary findings, our analysis identifies regions where cumulative water resilience risk is most pronounced, highlighting the balance between the number of indicators and the robustness of aggregation methods. Building on Huggins et al. (2022), we propose a typology of water resilience riskscapes to better address the multidimensional and social-ecological nature of resilience loss. We suggest this typology and methodological approach can be used as a foundation for targeted interventions that aim to enhance water resilience for both ecosystems and human communities. Further, we underscore the challenges that the multidimensional and social-ecological nature of the water resilience riskscapes pose for river basin organisations and the governing organisations responsible for responding to changing global dynamics and risks.

How to cite: Vesnovskii, P. and Moore, M.-L.: Mapping Global Water Resilience Risks for River Basin Governance, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18128, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18128, 2025.

Farmers in South Asia, home to a significant portion of the global population, rely heavily on agriculture for their livelihoods, with water resources playing a crucial role in sustaining this sector. Canal irrigation systems are integral to agricultural productivity in these regions, yet disparities in water distribution between upstream and downstream areas present significant farmer-level challenges for policy adaptation to achieve sustainable agricultural water management. This study assesses the socio-hydrological and agronomic dynamics of canal irrigation in a South Indian region, focusing on supply-demand interactions and their impact on crop choice.

We developed a coupled crop-hydraulic modeling framework that simulated crop water demands using AquaCrop and canal discharge using PCSWMM for two seasons—Kharif and Rabi—covering high-demand crops like paddy and low-demand crops like cotton. Crop water demand was calculated by integrating AquaCrop-derived requirements with geospatially mapped cultivated areas. Canal discharge volumes were monitored using 70 water level sensors, with data assimilated into the hydraulic model for calibration. Subsequently, the supply and demand volumes for both regions were compared, and the following results were derived.

Results revealed that upstream farmers receive approximately 70% more supply than their estimated demand. Therefore, they predominantly cultivate water-intensive crops like paddy and are reluctant to adapt to new methodologies. Conversely, downstream farmers, who receive 80% less water supply when compared to their demand, were willing to adapt to new agricultural methods. This could be attributed to the observation that downstream farmers prioritize risk mitigation over yield maximization. Overall, integrating socio-hydrological and agricultural approaches reveals downstream farmers as ideal candidates for initial policy implementation due to their readiness to adapt. Policies focusing on equitable water distribution, financial incentives for adaptive practices, and investments in water management infrastructure can enhance resilience and promote long-term overall regional agricultural sustainability.

How to cite: Gaddam, S. J., Prasad S., S., and Karumanchi, S. H.: Focus on Downstream: A Sociohydrological Approach to Improve Policy Adaptation for Farmers, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16687, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16687, 2025.

The Nexus approach plays a critical role in understanding complex system dynamics under climate change and supporting watershed management. As biodiversity is increasingly recognized as a key resource, the Food-Water-Biodiversity (FWB) Nexus has gained importance. However, scalable models that incorporate human activities and biodiversity are limited, particularly in the Republic of Korea. This study aims to develop an FWB Nexus assessment tool by integrating the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) with Agent-Based Model (ABM), referred to as SWAT-ABM, and demonstrate its application in the Yeongsan River Basin in Naju-si, Jeollanam-do. The SWAT model was first calibrated using streamflow and rice production data, while the ABM decision-making algorithm was developed through comparative and logical analysis. Biodiversity was assessed in ABM through exceedance probability results from each reach. ABM uses SWAT outputs, including rice and pea production, land use type, irrigation, and streamflow, to update land cover, crop type, and irrigation efficiency at the HRU level. Three FWB Nexus management scenarios, combined with SSP-1.26 and SSP-5.85, were tested from 2024 to 2050. The scenarios’ effectiveness and fairness based on FWB Nexus were compared based on the spatial and temporal distribution of rice production, irrigated water, and streamflow. Model performance was assessed using R², NSE, PBIAS, and KGE, with values of 0.58, 0.08, 77.3, and -0.18, respectively. Although there was high bias in estimates, the model still captured overall trends. Scenario results indicate that streamflow concentration increases under worsening climate change, exacerbating trade-offs within the FWB Nexus, particularly the imbalance of water resources during the farming season. The most effective management measure in a short- and mid-term were irrigation efficiency improvement compared to other two measures, although afforestation and crop conversion also contributed to enhancing synergies. This study demonstrates the potential of SWAT-ABM as a decision-making tool in watershed management considering the FWB Nexus, while highlighting challenges such as model performance, temporal resolution, and ABM complexity.

Keywords: FWB(Food-Water-Biodiversity) Nexus, SWAT, ABM (Agent-Based Model), Watershed management, Climate change

Acknowledgments: This paper was supported by Technology Development Project for Creation and Management of Ecosystem based Carbon Sinks (project number) through KEITI, Ministry of Environment, and the framework of international cooperation program managed by the National Research Foundation of Korea (No. 2021K2A9A1A02101519).

How to cite: Jeong, Y. and Lee, W.-K.: FWB (Food-Water-Biodiversity) Nexus Assessment in a Watershed Using SWAT-ABM: A case study of the Yeongsan-River Basin in the Republic of Korea, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19990, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19990, 2025.

This study contributes to the understanding of complex human-water interactions by examining how entrenched institutional arrangements and historical power dynamics shape the governance and access to water in different hydrological contexts.

The Jal Jeevan Mission (JJM) initiative focusing on universal household water supply in India supports decentralization of water governance. However, the sectoral reforms advocated in the late 90s, along with the demand-responsive approach (DRA), have been more limited than expected, with path dependency in institutional arrangements presenting significant challenges. Despite ongoing efforts toward decentralization, institutional inertia continues to impede substantial change. This research examines how entrenched social, political, and historical power dynamics shape water governance across three districts with distinct hydrological sources for water supply in Uttar Pradesh: Agra (surface water), Banda (mixed surface-groundwater), and Prayagraj (groundwater). The study draws on the hydro-social framework and new institutional economics (NIE) to explore how formal institutional structures (under JJM) are influenced by social and political power relations, affecting water governance. By analysing stakeholder interviews, government documents, and institutional arrangements, the research focuses on the social production of water, emphasizing how water access and control are constructed through various institutional processes. The findings contribute to a deeper understanding of how institutional frameworks shape the production and distribution of water.

How to cite: kumar, P.: Institutional Challenges and Social Production of Water in Rural Water Supply: A Hydrosocial Analysis of the Jal Jeevan Mission in India, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20566, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20566, 2025.

There is limited understanding of how to address the complex dynamics shaping the resilience of increasingly water-scarce cities, globally. This requires moving beyond managing water scarcity through infrastructural measures to understanding resilience as an outcome of complex interactions between social, ecological and technological system elements. By conceptualizing urban water systems as Social-Ecological-Technological Systems (SETS) and analysing their interactions from different stakeholder perspectives, we create a pluralistic, yet systematic, understanding of SETS interactions. We conducted a household survey (N=300) and expert interviews (N=19) in Amman, one of the world’s water scarcity hotspots, and analysed the data in three steps: 1) Inspired by frame analysis, we interpreted the SETS through the lens of its different actor groups and found that each group focuses on different system elements and interactions: Local experts focus on deficits of SETS elements and aim to increase available resources, while international experts emphasize the efficiency of SETS interactions. Households cope with deficient water supplies by mobilizing adaptive strategies. 2) We derived uncertainties resulting from these different (and unrecognized) stakeholder views, missing knowledge, and unpredictable system dynamics. 3) We identified and characterized new SETS interactions, which contributes to a growing typology of SETS aiming for better comparability across SETS. Our results have implications for resilience-oriented urban water management and governance in terms of what to manage (e.g., slow variables/feedbacks), how to manage by enhancing deeper levels of learning across stakeholder groups, and by whom. The latter requires a broadened participation in the process of of transforming the city's water system towards greater system resilience and sustainability.

How to cite: Krueger, E., Ma, Z., Kassab, G., and Schulte-Römer, N.: Reframing resilience-oriented urban water management: Learning from social-ecological-technological system interactions and uncertainties in a water scarce city, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4968, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4968, 2025.

Community-based management approaches in the Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene (WASH) sector have been widely implemented in low- and middle-income countries, particularly in rural areas, due to their cost-effectiveness and sustainability. Despite their popularity since the 1990s, the outcomes of such interventions have not always been successful. In the context of WASH, both community water facilities and household sanitation can be viewed as common-pool resources, which inherently face theoretical challenges in management due to externalities in collective governance. This research examines the interplay between collective water management and social capital, focusing on a community toilet development project in the urban slums of Bangladesh as a case study. While social capital is expected to play a pivotal role in community management, the mechanisms through which it fosters collective action remain largely unexplained. The study introduces a framework to delineate social capital through the lens of social norms, employing behavioral game theoretical perspectives. This framework aims to provide a more nuanced understanding of local value systems and underscores their importance in achieving sustainable resource management and good governance. The research builds on findings published in Sakamoto’s (2024) “The Role of Social Capital in Community Development: Insights from Behavioral Game Theory and Social Network Analysis” in the Journal of Sustainable Development.

How to cite: Sakamoto, M.: Social Capital and Collective Water Management: Social Norms Perspectives, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7398, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7398, 2025.

Sustainable management of water resources is one of the biggest challenges of our times particularly in terms of food security and ecosystem health (Molden, 2013, p.10). When already scarce nature of water resources is combined with the anthropogenic stress factors, water scarcity becomes one of the major threats for humanity and ecosystem. Old-fashioned command and control approaches in water resource management mostly dealt with providing sufficient amount of water to meet societal needs without concern on the ecosystem services. However, there needs to be a shift towards actions that can “work with nature” (Winz et al., 2009). In that sense, multi-sectoral approaches or water-energy-food nexus perspective supported with stakeholder engagement can unravel better before worse problems with dynamic systems approach. In this research, strategic water management problems in Konya Closed Basin are analyzed by using system dynamics approach and participatory methods from a water-food-ecosystem nexus perspective. Konya Closed Basin is an important agricultural production hub in Turkey, yet the region has been facing serious water scarcity problems in the past couple of decades. The Basin mostly relies on groundwater for irrigation; however, as a common pool resource, groundwater resources are hard to manage. Groundwater management challenges in the basin primarily include uncontrolled overuse of the resource, and unlicensed well drilling. On the other hand, surface water management brings additional challenges both for the water supply and ecosystem services and creates conflicts between the upstream and downstream users. Within the scope of this research, water resource systems are conceptualized in a holistic way and conflicts over water resources and conjoint use of surface water and groundwater resources are analyzed. The methodology is enhanced with stakeholder mapping and governance analysis. To understand the governance structure, one-to-one interviews were held with the key stakeholders and a participatory workshop is organized to develop a common understanding about how water management problems have emerged in the past, and how these problems potentially threat environmental and economic sustainability in the future. With the involvement of key stakeholders, a multi-sectoral dynamic simulation model is developed which covers the interactions between hydrologic, socio-economic and agricultural components of the systems. The model simulates the surface water allocation decisions of authorities in the basin and their impacts on the groundwater resources, agricultural production and land-use change. The reference behavior of the model shows that in the absence of effective policies, pressure on the water resources will remain due to the tendency to cultivate more water demanding crops. The model will provide a user-friendly interface which allows policy makers to test and propose alternative management policies to ensure long-term environmental sustainability of the basin without requiring any software knowledge.

Acknowledgement: This work was supported by OurMED PRIMA Program project funded by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation under grant agreement No. 2222. We gratefully acknowledge funding from TUBITAK 2224-A - Grant Program for Participation in Scientific Meetings Abroad.

References:

Molden, D., 2013. Water for food water for life: A comprehensive assessment of water management in agriculture. Routledge.

Winz, I., Brierley, G. and Trowsdale, S., 2009. The use of system dynamics simulation in water resources management. Water resources management, 23(7), pp.1301-1323.

How to cite: Bal, E., Saysel, A. K., and Daloğlu Çetinkaya, İ.: Participatory Dynamic Systems Approach to Facilitate Multisectorial Sustainable Water Management in Konya Closed Basin , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19124, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19124, 2025.

Climate change is affecting water availability in the Mediterranean. The agriculture sector, accounting for the largest share of water withdrawals, is particularly vulnerable to dry spells and droughts increasing the risks for the socio-economic development of Mediterranean rural communities. Despite being often disregarded, the use of Non-Conventional Waters (NCW) can represent a sustainable and effective way to increase water availability and support agricultural production. In Central Italy, a traditional NCW is water harvesting through Small Agricultural Reservoirs (SmARs), which are receiving renewed interest to support emergency irrigation of high value productions, like wine and olive oil. Within the AG-WaMED project (funded PRIMA S2), we analyse the barriers and drivers associated with the implementation and management of existing and new SmARs, considering hydrological, socio-economic, and governance aspects through a participatory approach in Val d’Orcia, Tuscany Region. A Living Lab was established following the Responsible Research and Innovation Roadmap© methodology to engage local stakeholders through 4 participatory workshops and interviews to assess the current challenges in the adoption of SmARs and to build a shared vision on their sustainable utilisation. In the first workshop, knowledge on the contextual biophysical, socio-economic and institutional conditions was co-created, highlighting data gaps, economic and normative issues, as well as a lack of collaboration between water management institutions. While the interest of local stakeholders on implementing SmARs is strong, normative, institutional and political barriers exist at higher institutional level, i.e., district and national, mostly associated with environmental protection. The second workshop served to present the preliminary results of the agro-hydrological and socio-economic modelling and to gain feedback on input data, scenarios building and on additional analysis to be conducted. The last two workshops led to the preparation of the final version of Integrated Watershed Management Plan synthesizing the evidence generated by the project  and identifying leverage points for the use of SmARs. Proposed actions included in the plan are promoting water sharing between farms and multipurpose use of SmARs’ water (e.g. fire extinction), the reuse of treated effluents from constructed wetlands as an additional irrigation NCW source and a clarification of each water management institution’s responsibilities. Through the Val d’Orcia case study, we demonstrated how conducting a multi-dimensional and participatory assessment of NCW is crucial to reveal the root causes of their limited adoption and identify systemic solutions for their sustainable uptake. 

This research was carried out within the AG-WaMED project, funded by the Partnership for Research and Innovation in the Mediterranean Area Programme (PRIMA), an Art.185 initiative supported and funded under Horizon 2020, the European Union’s Framework Programme for Research and Innovation, Grant Agreement Number No. [Italy: 391 del 20/10/2022, Egypt: 45878, Tunisia: 0005874-004-18-2022-3, Greece: ΓΓP21-0474657, Spain: PCI2022-132929, Algeria: N° 04/PRIMA_section 2/2021].

The content of this abstract reflects the views only of the authors, and the Commission cannot be held responsible for any use that may be made of the information contained therein.

Copyright Notice: The RRI Roadmap©TM methodology and its tools or portions of it are the ownership of XPRO Consulting Limited, Cyprus. All Rights Reserved.

How to cite: Forzini, E., Lucca, E., Villani, L., Castelli, G., Piemontese, L., Nicolas-Artero, C., Tobias, M., Dell'Angelo, J., Rulli, M. C., Pacetti, T., Caporali, E., and Bresci, E.: Assessing biophysical, socio-economic and governance conditions for a sustainable use of non-conventional water resources in a Mediterranean agricultural watershed, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13509, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13509, 2025.

In the last decades, water resource exploitation has become one of the most complex and challenging issues for managers and policy makers, that need to guarantee strategic development with a sustainable use of water resources. Climate, population density and the financial ability to invest in hydraulic infrastructures play a significant role in shaping water resources availability at country level. To ensure sustainable water management, it is, hence, fundamental to understand and reproduce how population and wealth dynamics affect and are affected by water availability, considering different climates and their potential future variability. In this framework, an agent-based socio-hydrological model has been proposed to simulate water exploitation in relation to climate, population and salary dynamics, considering the mutual interactions among these factors. The aim of the model is to explore how water availability is linked to long-term economic and population growth, with a particular focus on the consequences of investments to store surface water. Results highlight the strong mutual dependence of water availability with population density and salary dynamics. Additionally, the proposed socio-hydrological model enables also to identify steady scenarios, that starting from selected rainfall, population density and salary, ensure stable socio-economic conditions for long-term simulations.

How to cite: Cristiano, E., Atzori, C., Deidda, R., and Viola, F.: A socio-hydrological model to explore water resource exploitation in relation to population and salary dynamics, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3080, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3080, 2025.

Climate change presents a pressing challenge to global water availability resulting in increased variability in precipitation and increased temperatures, imposing more stress on existing water resources (IPCC, 2023). This variability poses a significant risk to economic, industrial, social stability and also impacts agricultural sectors reliant on water availability. This study introduces an innovative modeling approach by dynamically coupling the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) with the Positive Multi-Attribute Utility Programming (PMAUP) microeconomic model, providing a robust framework for examining the complex two-way feedback loops between hydrological changes and agricultural economic decisions. Applied to the Tormes catchment in Spain, this method demonstrates how integrated modeling can illuminate the interactions within Human-Water Systems (HWS) under various climate scenarios.

The methodology employs a dynamic interaction that begins with the PMAUP model, which acts as a responsive mechanism to climatic perturbations affecting water availability. In response to these changes and influenced by policy measures aimed at mitigating their impacts, socio-economic agents adapt their agricultural practices accordingly. The crop portfolio, reflective of these adaptive practices, is central to this methodological integration, serving as a crucial input for both the SWAT and PMAUP models.

The PMAUP model was calibrated using observed socio-economic data while the SWAT model was calibrated against observed streamflow data to capture hydrological dynamics accurately. Following calibration, CMIP6 climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) were input into SWAT to estimate key hydrological variables, especially water availability at the beginning of the irrigation season. This estimated water availability was then utilized by the PMAUP model to simulate agent’s adaptive responses. These updated land and water use decisions were subsequently fed back into the SWAT model to evaluate the hydrological impacts of these human decisions.

By simulating the immediate and cumulative impacts of agricultural decisions on water resources over time, this approach provides critical insights into the sustainability of water usage and the resilience of agricultural practices in response to climate variability. The dynamic coupling of SWAT and PMUAP models not only enhances the accuracy of predictions but also aids in developing adaptive strategies that are essential for maintaining balance in HWS. The actionable insights from this study serve as a vital resource for policymakers and stakeholders, offering a methodological blueprint that can be adapted to diverse geographical settings to address the global challenge of climate change.

How to cite: Hassan, O. G. B., Pérez Blanco, C. D., and González López, H.: A Novel Approach to Modeling Two-Way Feedbacks in Water Resource Management Under Climate Change, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18883, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18883, 2025.

Approximately 50% of the Republic of Ireland’s (ROI) rural population depends on unregulated private wells, which are susceptible to ingress of agricultural runoff and untreated domestic wastewater. As elevated national rates of Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) and other waterborne illnesses have been increasingly linked with well water exposure, promoting positive behavioural actions (e.g., periodic water testing) is vital to safeguarding rural public health. However, the absence of financially incentivised water quality testing necessitates household expenditure. Thus, analysing the role of environmental, cognitive and material factors in promoting and/or governing behavioural actions is critical.

Existing studies have assigned little attention on the impacts of conjectural, policy-based changes and inter-agent interactions (e.g., well users, government agencies). Development of empirically informed future scenarios, amalgamated with population-level data, may highlight top-down strategies conducive to favorable behaviours, leading to favourable outcomes. Accordingly, the authors adopted an agent-based modelling (ABM) approach to simulate and characterise well testing behaviours via national survey data i.e., a behavioural and legislative “sandbox”.

The ABM framework utilized a Deep Q-network, a reinforcement learning model, simulating agents' decisions in an environment reflecting typical Irish seasonal variations. EXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) was integrated into the ABM framework to provide transparent and interpretable insights into AI decision-making processes. ABMs were parameterized to simulate private groundwater well-testing behaviors and thereby assess interventions that encourage more frequent testing. Recursive Feature Elimination (RFE) with 10-fold cross-validation identified key features influencing behaviors, such as weather, self-efficacy (confidence), and penalization/reward structures. SHAP (Shapley Additive Explanations) values, a core XAI tool, further explained feature importance, enhancing the interpretability of the ABM and facilitating actionable policy insights.

Over 1,000 episodes of simulations with 561 agents were trained. Among 14 hypothetical scenarios evaluated, "Free Well Testing + Communication Campaign" was the most effective intervention, with 435 agents participating in testing and highest learning accuracy (77.23%). "Free Well Testing + Regulation" also performed well, with 433 agents and 77.11% accuracy, though with a high error value. "Free Well Testing" alone resulted in 430 agents participating, with high accuracy (76.67%) and low error. Findings demonstrate that free testing will lead to significantly increased testing frequency in Ireland (from 5% to >75%), with many residents testing multiple times a year.

Keywords: agent-based modeling, Deep Q-network (DQN), private well testing, private well owners, public health, reinforcement learning, risk communication, and explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI).

How to cite: Asghar, R., Mooney, S., O’Neill, E., and Hynds, P.: Using agent-based models and EXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) to simulate social behaviors and policy intervention scenarios: A case study of private well users in Ireland, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10274, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10274, 2025.