To better understand the increasing human impact on the water cycle and the feedbacks between hydrology and society, the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) organised the scientific decade “Panta Rhei—Everything Flows: Change in hydrology and society” (2013-2022). Significant scientific advances have been achieved, for instance, a key finding is the need to use integrated approaches to assess the co-evolution of human-water systems in order to avoid unintended consequences of human interventions over long periods of time. In this respect, substantial progress has been made in leveraging new data sources on socio-economic aspects and human behaviour, e.g., through text mining of social media posts. Much has been learned about detecting hydrological changes and attributing them to their drivers, e.g., quantifying climate effects on floods. Also, much headway has been made in understanding and modelling coupled socio-hydrological systems through combining methods from the social and natural sciences; for example, feedbacks leading to phenomena such as the levee effect can be simulated by system dynamics models. In terms of supporting adaptive water management, progress has been made, e.g., in developing participatory governance approaches, although there is still much to be done. We recommend that the community takes a broader view of the hydrologic sciences, through broadening the understanding, the discipline and training activities, while at the same time pursuing synthesis by focusing on key themes, developing innovative approaches and finding sustainable solutions to the water problems of the world.
How to cite: Kreibich, H. and the IAHS Panta Rhei community: Panta Rhei: decade of progress in research on change in hydrology and society, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15991, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15991, 2025.
Flood adaptation measures, such as levees, flood-proofing structures, nature-based solutions, and flood insurance, are essential to cope with the growing flood risk caused by climate change and urban development in flood-prone areas. However, many communities in flood zones are inadequately protected because the implementation of adaptation measures is hindered by various constraints, including cost, limitations in institutional capacity, and societal inertia. When adaptation efforts fall short relative to the desired level due to a combination of constraints, it results in an ‘adaptation gap’ and eventually leads to ‘adaptation limits’—a point in time where additional adaptation is no longer feasible and the risk becomes ‘intolerable.’ While the emerging field of socio-hydrology has made progress in studying the adaptive feedbacks from society to environmental changes, a quantitative assessment of adaptation limits and gaps has not yet been conducted.
In this paper, we introduce a novel, risk-based framework to quantify how changes in risk and adaptation constraints might result in the spatial-temporal dynamics of adaptation gaps and, ultimately, adaptation limits. With hundreds of millions of people living in flood-prone areas, understanding how these constraints affect adaptation gaps and potential limits—and where and when these limits are reached—is crucial for quantitative risk assessments. This information is particularly helpful for efforts to build resilience in the most vulnerable communities, some of which may have already reached such limits. We discuss five main categories of constraints that limit adaptation efforts, ranging from technical constraints that prevent the government from implementing levees to socio-economic constraints (such as age and income) that limit flood adaptation by households.
We argue that, without overcoming these constraints, adaptation gaps will widen under climate change, exposing increasing populations to heightened flood risk. This may then require more radical actions including relocation, as risks become intolerable. We argue that quantitative flood risk assessments must consider constraints and adaptation gaps systematically, especially where they may lead to flood adaptation limits. Without assessing these dynamic relationships, flood managers may overestimate the efficacy of flood adaptation measures and underestimate the unequal distribution of flood risks.
Reference: Aerts, Jeroen C.J.H., Paul Bates, Wouter J. Botzen, Jens de Bruijn, Jim Hall, Bart van den Hurk, Heidi Kreibich, Bruno Merz, Sanne Muis, Jaroslav Mysiak, Eric Tate, and Frans Berkhout (2024) Exploring flood adaptation limits and gaps. Nature Water, doi-org.vu-nl.idm.oclc.org/10.1038/s44221-024-00274-x
How to cite: Aerts, J. C. J. H., Bates, P. D., Botzen, W., de Bruijn, J., Hall, J. W., van den Hurk, B., Kreibich, H., Merz, B., Muis, S., Mysiak, J., Tate, E., and Berkhout, F.: Exploring the limits and gaps of flood adaptation, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9192, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9192, 2025.
There is concern that more frequent flooding around the world will accelerate the vicious cycle of poverty, particularly in developing countries. There is also hope that flood control as a climate adaptation measure will bring significant socioeconomic benefits in the long term, such as improving the livelihoods of the poor, but the effects have yet to be proven. Tokyo, one of the world's largest cities, experienced frequent flooding during the Edo period (1603-1868). Did Edo, as Tokyo was then called, have the same problems with flooding and poverty that we see in developing countries today? And how did they overcome them? In this study, we collected and integrated a wide range of historical records on past floods and poverty, which historians had previously studied separately, and quantitatively demonstrated the relationship between the earliest floods and poverty. We found that areas with large numbers of poor people were more vulnerable to flood damage. It also showed that flood control exacerbated inequalities during the Edo period, when there were significant technological and budgetary constraints, but that later, as flood control was strengthened, socioeconomic inequalities were reduced. This research is the first to demonstrate the long-term socioeconomic impacts of flood control, and it presents the long-term socioeconomic impacts of climate adaptation and disaster mitigation investments for developing countries that, like Tokyo in the past, face the problem of flooding and poverty. Based on the findings of this research, we would like to contribute to deepen the discussion of social hydrology regarding the impact of flood control on long-term socioeconomic development.
How to cite: Kawasaki, A. and Nakamura, R.: How did old Tokyo overcome floods and poverty?, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9474, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9474, 2025.
How to travel the fastest route from the Pacific Ocean to Tokyo, with air distance of 100 km?
Tone is the largest river in Japan, it supplies 37 million inhabitants of the Tokyo Metropolitan Area with water nowadays. Tone River was flowing towards Tokyo Bay more than 400 years ago, when engineers redirected it towards the Pacific Ocean, where the new river mouth was dislocated for 100 kilometers. It is not known what was the main reason for the diversion of the river. One hypothesis of historians, from the 19th century, is the defense of Tokyo (then Edo) from floods. Second one is raising of low river water levels for easier navigation on river routes from the Pacific Ocean to Tokyo, which attracted more attention in the 20th century.
We analyzed the second hypothesis for the main reason for Tone River diversion using the H08 hydrological model. We discussed what kind of knowledge we can obtain from the reconstruction of historical truths and how today's humanity can profit from the obtained knowledge. We successfully reconstructed the hydrological cycle of the Tone River, showing that the second assumption of historians about the main reason for diverting the river to raise its minimum levels is correct. The minimum levels of the Tone River increased significantly after its diversion. Because of this, the possibility of uninterrupted navigation of ships through the river waterways of the Pacific Ocean to Tokyo has been significantly increased. As a result of the increased navigability of ships, the possibilities of faster transportation of goods, cargo and commodity exchange increased the quality of social life that took place at the river ports.
This study presents the first distributed hydrological simulation confirming the claims raised by historians that the Tone River Eastward Diversion Project in Japan was conducted four centuries ago to increase low flows and subsequent travelling possibilities surrounding the Capitol Edo using inland navigation. We reconstructed six historical river maps and indirectly validated simulations with reachable ancient river ports via increased low-flow water levels.
The Tone River diversion project is used as a proof that small human engineering waterworks can greatly improve people's quality of life, without excessive destruction of natural flows. Learning from history should become a more important factor in challenging climate changes.
Our study is one of pioneering research in new discipline "History of Hydrology" (by Keith Beven), making a bridge between two disciplines. We believe that it will encourage broader scientific audience to engage in transdisciplinary hydrological and related studies by providing insights in historical engineering and scientific knowledge. There are a lot of present-day scientific efforts focused on projection, prediction and forecasting of near-future or far-future scenarios, yet historical studies are often sidelined. If only scientific community realizes that, sometimes at tipping points of climate, we can learn from past more than from future, then we believe that the historical cross-disciplinary insights will create abundant new approaches.
Keywords: Paleo-hydrological bridge; H08 global hydrological model; Tone River Eastward Diversion; 17th century; maps reconstruction; low flows; navigable paths;
How to cite: Trošelj, J. and Hanasaki, N.: Great steps forward can be made for improving quality of life with small human engineering waterworks and small destructions of natural flows, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19448, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19448, 2025.
Ice-jam floods present a real risk for riverine communities in cold climate regions through their often-sudden but always potentially destructive nature. This fact makes the analysis of the driving factors for residents in adopting measures against ice-jam flood hazards in the city of Fort McMurray, Canada, very relevant. By employing a structured survey that integrates the Protection Motivation Theory and the Transtheoretical Model, we identify self-efficacy, threat experience appraisal, and perceived costs as some of the key drivers influencing protective behaviors. The results also call for stage-specific, tailored interventions in concert with variation in readiness to act. Our findings clearly indicate that to realize the hoped-for increase in the adoption rate, policy approaches have to be directed to address the cost barrier, develop self-efficacy through appropriate communication strategies, and consider the peculiarities of various community groups, such as renters and transient populations. By proposing public policies, this work demonstrates how these strategies can be utilized as inputs for quantitative modeling approaches, such as agent-based modeling, to evaluate their impact on community-wide flood risk management. This research underlines the importance of integrating behavioral insights with advanced quantitative modeling tools in designing and implementing better flood risk management strategies that promote more resilient communities.
How to cite: Ghoreishi, M., Bellows, B., and Lindenschmidt, K.-E.: Enhancing Community Resilience to Ice-Jam Floods: Insights from Socioeconomic and Psychological Factors in Fort McMurray, Canada, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-12942, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-12942, 2025.
Global water resilience is a critical concern for both nature and society in the face of increasing environmental and socio-economic pressures. Numerous studies have produced global maps highlighting a diversity of water-related risks. Yet, efforts to understand the cumulative nature of those risks and how that information can be used for decision-making remain crucial. This study aims to provide an exploratory global mapping of water resilience risks from a social-ecological systems perspective, identifying areas where the erosion of freshwater systems resilience is most under threat. Using a multilayer spatial analysis at the basin and sub-basin scales, we integrate diverse indicators to assess water resilience functions, as described in freshwater resilience frameworks by Falkenmark & Wang-Erlandsson (2021) and Rockström et al. (2014). We have grouped risks to water resilience according to their effects on the social-ecological systems of the basins, having also integrated novel indicators of resilience loss and tipping points of terrestrial and freshwater systems. Based on preliminary findings, our analysis identifies regions where cumulative water resilience risk is most pronounced, highlighting the balance between the number of indicators and the robustness of aggregation methods. Building on Huggins et al. (2022), we propose a typology of water resilience riskscapes to better address the multidimensional and social-ecological nature of resilience loss. We suggest this typology and methodological approach can be used as a foundation for targeted interventions that aim to enhance water resilience for both ecosystems and human communities. Further, we underscore the challenges that the multidimensional and social-ecological nature of the water resilience riskscapes pose for river basin organisations and the governing organisations responsible for responding to changing global dynamics and risks.
How to cite: Vesnovskii, P. and Moore, M.-L.: Mapping Global Water Resilience Risks for River Basin Governance, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18128, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18128, 2025.
Farmers in South Asia, home to a significant portion of the global population, rely heavily on agriculture for their livelihoods, with water resources playing a crucial role in sustaining this sector. Canal irrigation systems are integral to agricultural productivity in these regions, yet disparities in water distribution between upstream and downstream areas present significant farmer-level challenges for policy adaptation to achieve sustainable agricultural water management. This study assesses the socio-hydrological and agronomic dynamics of canal irrigation in a South Indian region, focusing on supply-demand interactions and their impact on crop choice.
We developed a coupled crop-hydraulic modeling framework that simulated crop water demands using AquaCrop and canal discharge using PCSWMM for two seasons—Kharif and Rabi—covering high-demand crops like paddy and low-demand crops like cotton. Crop water demand was calculated by integrating AquaCrop-derived requirements with geospatially mapped cultivated areas. Canal discharge volumes were monitored using 70 water level sensors, with data assimilated into the hydraulic model for calibration. Subsequently, the supply and demand volumes for both regions were compared, and the following results were derived.
Results revealed that upstream farmers receive approximately 70% more supply than their estimated demand. Therefore, they predominantly cultivate water-intensive crops like paddy and are reluctant to adapt to new methodologies. Conversely, downstream farmers, who receive 80% less water supply when compared to their demand, were willing to adapt to new agricultural methods. This could be attributed to the observation that downstream farmers prioritize risk mitigation over yield maximization. Overall, integrating socio-hydrological and agricultural approaches reveals downstream farmers as ideal candidates for initial policy implementation due to their readiness to adapt. Policies focusing on equitable water distribution, financial incentives for adaptive practices, and investments in water management infrastructure can enhance resilience and promote long-term overall regional agricultural sustainability.
How to cite: Gaddam, S. J., Prasad S., S., and Karumanchi, S. H.: Focus on Downstream: A Sociohydrological Approach to Improve Policy Adaptation for Farmers, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16687, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16687, 2025.
The Nexus approach plays a critical role in understanding complex system dynamics under climate change and supporting watershed management. As biodiversity is increasingly recognized as a key resource, the Food-Water-Biodiversity (FWB) Nexus has gained importance. However, scalable models that incorporate human activities and biodiversity are limited, particularly in the Republic of Korea. This study aims to develop an FWB Nexus assessment tool by integrating the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) with Agent-Based Model (ABM), referred to as SWAT-ABM, and demonstrate its application in the Yeongsan River Basin in Naju-si, Jeollanam-do. The SWAT model was first calibrated using streamflow and rice production data, while the ABM decision-making algorithm was developed through comparative and logical analysis. Biodiversity was assessed in ABM through exceedance probability results from each reach. ABM uses SWAT outputs, including rice and pea production, land use type, irrigation, and streamflow, to update land cover, crop type, and irrigation efficiency at the HRU level. Three FWB Nexus management scenarios, combined with SSP-1.26 and SSP-5.85, were tested from 2024 to 2050. The scenarios’ effectiveness and fairness based on FWB Nexus were compared based on the spatial and temporal distribution of rice production, irrigated water, and streamflow. Model performance was assessed using R², NSE, PBIAS, and KGE, with values of 0.58, 0.08, 77.3, and -0.18, respectively. Although there was high bias in estimates, the model still captured overall trends. Scenario results indicate that streamflow concentration increases under worsening climate change, exacerbating trade-offs within the FWB Nexus, particularly the imbalance of water resources during the farming season. The most effective management measure in a short- and mid-term were irrigation efficiency improvement compared to other two measures, although afforestation and crop conversion also contributed to enhancing synergies. This study demonstrates the potential of SWAT-ABM as a decision-making tool in watershed management considering the FWB Nexus, while highlighting challenges such as model performance, temporal resolution, and ABM complexity.
Keywords: FWB(Food-Water-Biodiversity) Nexus, SWAT, ABM (Agent-Based Model), Watershed management, Climate change
Acknowledgments: This paper was supported by Technology Development Project for Creation and Management of Ecosystem based Carbon Sinks (project number) through KEITI, Ministry of Environment, and the framework of international cooperation program managed by the National Research Foundation of Korea (No. 2021K2A9A1A02101519).
How to cite: Jeong, Y. and Lee, W.-K.: FWB (Food-Water-Biodiversity) Nexus Assessment in a Watershed Using SWAT-ABM: A case study of the Yeongsan-River Basin in the Republic of Korea, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19990, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19990, 2025.
This study contributes to the understanding of complex human-water interactions by examining how entrenched institutional arrangements and historical power dynamics shape the governance and access to water in different hydrological contexts.
The Jal Jeevan Mission (JJM) initiative focusing on universal household water supply in India supports decentralization of water governance. However, the sectoral reforms advocated in the late 90s, along with the demand-responsive approach (DRA), have been more limited than expected, with path dependency in institutional arrangements presenting significant challenges. Despite ongoing efforts toward decentralization, institutional inertia continues to impede substantial change. This research examines how entrenched social, political, and historical power dynamics shape water governance across three districts with distinct hydrological sources for water supply in Uttar Pradesh: Agra (surface water), Banda (mixed surface-groundwater), and Prayagraj (groundwater). The study draws on the hydro-social framework and new institutional economics (NIE) to explore how formal institutional structures (under JJM) are influenced by social and political power relations, affecting water governance. By analysing stakeholder interviews, government documents, and institutional arrangements, the research focuses on the social production of water, emphasizing how water access and control are constructed through various institutional processes. The findings contribute to a deeper understanding of how institutional frameworks shape the production and distribution of water.
How to cite: kumar, P.: Institutional Challenges and Social Production of Water in Rural Water Supply: A Hydrosocial Analysis of the Jal Jeevan Mission in India, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20566, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20566, 2025.
There is limited understanding of how to address the complex dynamics shaping the resilience of increasingly water-scarce cities, globally. This requires moving beyond managing water scarcity through infrastructural measures to understanding resilience as an outcome of complex interactions between social, ecological and technological system elements. By conceptualizing urban water systems as Social-Ecological-Technological Systems (SETS) and analysing their interactions from different stakeholder perspectives, we create a pluralistic, yet systematic, understanding of SETS interactions. We conducted a household survey (N=300) and expert interviews (N=19) in Amman, one of the world’s water scarcity hotspots, and analysed the data in three steps: 1) Inspired by frame analysis, we interpreted the SETS through the lens of its different actor groups and found that each group focuses on different system elements and interactions: Local experts focus on deficits of SETS elements and aim to increase available resources, while international experts emphasize the efficiency of SETS interactions. Households cope with deficient water supplies by mobilizing adaptive strategies. 2) We derived uncertainties resulting from these different (and unrecognized) stakeholder views, missing knowledge, and unpredictable system dynamics. 3) We identified and characterized new SETS interactions, which contributes to a growing typology of SETS aiming for better comparability across SETS. Our results have implications for resilience-oriented urban water management and governance in terms of what to manage (e.g., slow variables/feedbacks), how to manage by enhancing deeper levels of learning across stakeholder groups, and by whom. The latter requires a broadened participation in the process of of transforming the city's water system towards greater system resilience and sustainability.
How to cite: Krueger, E., Ma, Z., Kassab, G., and Schulte-Römer, N.: Reframing resilience-oriented urban water management: Learning from social-ecological-technological system interactions and uncertainties in a water scarce city, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4968, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4968, 2025.
Community-based management approaches in the Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene (WASH) sector have been widely implemented in low- and middle-income countries, particularly in rural areas, due to their cost-effectiveness and sustainability. Despite their popularity since the 1990s, the outcomes of such interventions have not always been successful. In the context of WASH, both community water facilities and household sanitation can be viewed as common-pool resources, which inherently face theoretical challenges in management due to externalities in collective governance. This research examines the interplay between collective water management and social capital, focusing on a community toilet development project in the urban slums of Bangladesh as a case study. While social capital is expected to play a pivotal role in community management, the mechanisms through which it fosters collective action remain largely unexplained. The study introduces a framework to delineate social capital through the lens of social norms, employing behavioral game theoretical perspectives. This framework aims to provide a more nuanced understanding of local value systems and underscores their importance in achieving sustainable resource management and good governance. The research builds on findings published in Sakamoto’s (2024) “The Role of Social Capital in Community Development: Insights from Behavioral Game Theory and Social Network Analysis” in the Journal of Sustainable Development.
How to cite: Sakamoto, M.: Social Capital and Collective Water Management: Social Norms Perspectives, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7398, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7398, 2025.
Sustainable management of water resources is one of the biggest challenges of our times particularly in terms of food security and ecosystem health (Molden, 2013, p.10). When already scarce nature of water resources is combined with the anthropogenic stress factors, water scarcity becomes one of the major threats for humanity and ecosystem. Old-fashioned command and control approaches in water resource management mostly dealt with providing sufficient amount of water to meet societal needs without concern on the ecosystem services. However, there needs to be a shift towards actions that can “work with nature” (Winz et al., 2009). In that sense, multi-sectoral approaches or water-energy-food nexus perspective supported with stakeholder engagement can unravel better before worse problems with dynamic systems approach. In this research, strategic water management problems in Konya Closed Basin are analyzed by using system dynamics approach and participatory methods from a water-food-ecosystem nexus perspective. Konya Closed Basin is an important agricultural production hub in Turkey, yet the region has been facing serious water scarcity problems in the past couple of decades. The Basin mostly relies on groundwater for irrigation; however, as a common pool resource, groundwater resources are hard to manage. Groundwater management challenges in the basin primarily include uncontrolled overuse of the resource, and unlicensed well drilling. On the other hand, surface water management brings additional challenges both for the water supply and ecosystem services and creates conflicts between the upstream and downstream users. Within the scope of this research, water resource systems are conceptualized in a holistic way and conflicts over water resources and conjoint use of surface water and groundwater resources are analyzed. The methodology is enhanced with stakeholder mapping and governance analysis. To understand the governance structure, one-to-one interviews were held with the key stakeholders and a participatory workshop is organized to develop a common understanding about how water management problems have emerged in the past, and how these problems potentially threat environmental and economic sustainability in the future. With the involvement of key stakeholders, a multi-sectoral dynamic simulation model is developed which covers the interactions between hydrologic, socio-economic and agricultural components of the systems. The model simulates the surface water allocation decisions of authorities in the basin and their impacts on the groundwater resources, agricultural production and land-use change. The reference behavior of the model shows that in the absence of effective policies, pressure on the water resources will remain due to the tendency to cultivate more water demanding crops. The model will provide a user-friendly interface which allows policy makers to test and propose alternative management policies to ensure long-term environmental sustainability of the basin without requiring any software knowledge.
Acknowledgement: This work was supported by OurMED PRIMA Program project funded by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation under grant agreement No. 2222.
References:
Molden, D., 2013. Water for food water for life: A comprehensive assessment of water management in agriculture. Routledge.
Winz, I., Brierley, G. and Trowsdale, S., 2009. The use of system dynamics simulation in water resources management. Water resources management, 23(7), pp.1301-1323.
How to cite: Bal, E., Saysel, A. K., and Daloğlu Çetinkaya, İ.: Participatory Dynamic Systems Approach to Facilitate Multisectorial Sustainable Water Management in Konya Closed Basin , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19124, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19124, 2025.
Climate change is affecting water availability in the Mediterranean. The agriculture sector, accounting for the largest share of water withdrawals, is particularly vulnerable to dry spells and droughts increasing the risks for the socio-economic development of Mediterranean rural communities. Despite being often disregarded, the use of Non-Conventional Waters (NCW) can represent a sustainable and effective way to increase water availability and support agricultural production. In Central Italy, a traditional NCW is water harvesting through Small Agricultural Reservoirs (SmARs), which are receiving renewed interest to support emergency irrigation of high value productions, like wine and olive oil. Within the AG-WaMED project (funded PRIMA S2), we analyse the barriers and drivers associated with the implementation and management of existing and new SmARs, considering hydrological, socio-economic, and governance aspects through a participatory approach in Val d’Orcia, Tuscany Region. A Living Lab was established following the Responsible Research and Innovation Roadmap© methodology to engage local stakeholders through 4 participatory workshops and interviews to assess the current challenges in the adoption of SmARs and to build a shared vision on their sustainable utilisation. In the first workshop, knowledge on the contextual biophysical, socio-economic and institutional conditions was co-created, highlighting data gaps, economic and normative issues, as well as a lack of collaboration between water management institutions. While the interest of local stakeholders on implementing SmARs is strong, normative, institutional and political barriers exist at higher institutional level, i.e., district and national, mostly associated with environmental protection. The second workshop served to present the preliminary results of the agro-hydrological and socio-economic modelling and to gain feedback on input data, scenarios building and on additional analysis to be conducted. The last two workshops led to the preparation of the final version of Integrated Watershed Management Plan synthesizing the evidence generated by the project and identifying leverage points for the use of SmARs. Proposed actions included in the plan are promoting water sharing between farms and multipurpose use of SmARs’ water (e.g. fire extinction), the reuse of treated effluents from constructed wetlands as an additional irrigation NCW source and a clarification of each water management institution’s responsibilities. Through the Val d’Orcia case study, we demonstrated how conducting a multi-dimensional and participatory assessment of NCW is crucial to reveal the root causes of their limited adoption and identify systemic solutions for their sustainable uptake.
This research was carried out within the AG-WaMED project, funded by the Partnership for Research and Innovation in the Mediterranean Area Programme (PRIMA), an Art.185 initiative supported and funded under Horizon 2020, the European Union’s Framework Programme for Research and Innovation, Grant Agreement Number No. [Italy: 391 del 20/10/2022, Egypt: 45878, Tunisia: 0005874-004-18-2022-3, Greece: ΓΓP21-0474657, Spain: PCI2022-132929, Algeria: N° 04/PRIMA_section 2/2021].
The content of this abstract reflects the views only of the authors, and the Commission cannot be held responsible for any use that may be made of the information contained therein.
Copyright Notice: The RRI Roadmap©TM methodology and its tools or portions of it are the ownership of XPRO Consulting Limited, Cyprus. All Rights Reserved.
How to cite: Forzini, E., Lucca, E., Villani, L., Castelli, G., Piemontese, L., Nicolas-Artero, C., Tobias, M., Dell'Angelo, J., Rulli, M. C., Pacetti, T., Caporali, E., and Bresci, E.: Assessing biophysical, socio-economic and governance conditions for a sustainable use of non-conventional water resources in a Mediterranean agricultural watershed, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-13509, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13509, 2025.
Watersheds are commonly adopted as the primary unit for water management, yet this approach often fails to capture long-distance interactions—known as teleconnections—between coupled natural and human systems that extend beyond watershed boundaries. This study explores the cumulative impacts of water-dependent activities, such as coffee production and hydropower generation, in Colombia’s Magdalena-Cauca macro-basin, using the Watershed Topology Tool (WaTT), a newly developed topological tool based on the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) program. WaTT visualizes and quantifies hydrological processes, revealing water-related teleconnections across spatial and administrative boundaries. Our findings show that coffee production exerts impacts beyond direct production areas, as indicated by yield and Harvested Area Index analysis. For hydropower, energy consumption patterns mapped with cumulative data from Colombia’s Single Information System for Public Services (SUI) reveal intensified demand as the river passes urban centers, far from generation sites. These examples highlight the challenge of considering sector impacts that transcend typical water management units and the complex interplays between production zones, consumer regions, and their cumulative effects. Integrating teleconnections into water governance is crucial for recognizing distant interdependencies and incorporating them into planning. This multi-scale approach is essential for sustainable water management, particularly in regions facing complex socio-environmental challenges.
How to cite: Coleoni, C., Santos, T., Gonzalez, C., and Angarita, H.: Teleconnections in coffee and hydropower production in Colombia: An approach for expanding water management beyond watershed boundaries, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19708, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19708, 2025.
In the last decades, water resource exploitation has become one of the most complex and challenging issues for managers and policy makers, that need to guarantee strategic development with a sustainable use of water resources. Climate, population density and the financial ability to invest in hydraulic infrastructures play a significant role in shaping water resources availability at country level. To ensure sustainable water management, it is, hence, fundamental to understand and reproduce how population and wealth dynamics affect and are affected by water availability, considering different climates and their potential future variability. In this framework, an agent-based socio-hydrological model has been proposed to simulate water exploitation in relation to climate, population and salary dynamics, considering the mutual interactions among these factors. The aim of the model is to explore how water availability is linked to long-term economic and population growth, with a particular focus on the consequences of investments to store surface water. Results highlight the strong mutual dependence of water availability with population density and salary dynamics. Additionally, the proposed socio-hydrological model enables also to identify steady scenarios, that starting from selected rainfall, population density and salary, ensure stable socio-economic conditions for long-term simulations.
How to cite: Cristiano, E., Atzori, C., Deidda, R., and Viola, F.: A socio-hydrological model to explore water resource exploitation in relation to population and salary dynamics, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3080, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3080, 2025.
Climate change presents a pressing challenge to global water availability resulting in increased variability in precipitation and increased temperatures, imposing more stress on existing water resources (IPCC, 2023). This variability poses a significant risk to economic, industrial, social stability and also impacts agricultural sectors reliant on water availability. This study introduces an innovative modeling approach by dynamically coupling the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) with the Positive Multi-Attribute Utility Programming (PMAUP) microeconomic model, providing a robust framework for examining the complex two-way feedback loops between hydrological changes and agricultural economic decisions. Applied to the Tormes catchment in Spain, this method demonstrates how integrated modeling can illuminate the interactions within Human-Water Systems (HWS) under various climate scenarios.
The methodology employs a dynamic interaction that begins with the PMAUP model, which acts as a responsive mechanism to climatic perturbations affecting water availability. In response to these changes and influenced by policy measures aimed at mitigating their impacts, socio-economic agents adapt their agricultural practices accordingly. The crop portfolio, reflective of these adaptive practices, is central to this methodological integration, serving as a crucial input for both the SWAT and PMAUP models.
The PMAUP model was calibrated using observed socio-economic data while the SWAT model was calibrated against observed streamflow data to capture hydrological dynamics accurately. Following calibration, CMIP6 climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) were input into SWAT to estimate key hydrological variables, especially water availability at the beginning of the irrigation season. This estimated water availability was then utilized by the PMAUP model to simulate agent’s adaptive responses. These updated land and water use decisions were subsequently fed back into the SWAT model to evaluate the hydrological impacts of these human decisions.
By simulating the immediate and cumulative impacts of agricultural decisions on water resources over time, this approach provides critical insights into the sustainability of water usage and the resilience of agricultural practices in response to climate variability. The dynamic coupling of SWAT and PMUAP models not only enhances the accuracy of predictions but also aids in developing adaptive strategies that are essential for maintaining balance in HWS. The actionable insights from this study serve as a vital resource for policymakers and stakeholders, offering a methodological blueprint that can be adapted to diverse geographical settings to address the global challenge of climate change.
How to cite: Hassan, O. G. B., Pérez Blanco, C. D., and González López, H.: A Novel Approach to Modeling Two-Way Feedbacks in Water Resource Management Under Climate Change, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18883, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18883, 2025.
Approximately 50% of the Republic of Ireland’s (ROI) rural population depends on unregulated private wells, which are susceptible to ingress of agricultural runoff and untreated domestic wastewater. As elevated national rates of Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) and other waterborne illnesses have been increasingly linked with well water exposure, promoting positive behavioural actions (e.g., periodic water testing) is vital to safeguarding rural public health. However, the absence of financially incentivised water quality testing necessitates household expenditure. Thus, analysing the role of environmental, cognitive and material factors in promoting and/or governing behavioural actions is critical.
Existing studies have assigned little attention on the impacts of conjectural, policy-based changes and inter-agent interactions (e.g., well users, government agencies). Development of empirically informed future scenarios, amalgamated with population-level data, may highlight top-down strategies conducive to favorable behaviours, leading to favourable outcomes. Accordingly, the authors adopted an agent-based modelling (ABM) approach to simulate and characterise well testing behaviours via national survey data i.e., a behavioural and legislative “sandbox”.
The ABM framework utilized a Deep Q-network, a reinforcement learning model, simulating agents' decisions in an environment reflecting typical Irish seasonal variations. EXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) was integrated into the ABM framework to provide transparent and interpretable insights into AI decision-making processes. ABMs were parameterized to simulate private groundwater well-testing behaviors and thereby assess interventions that encourage more frequent testing. Recursive Feature Elimination (RFE) with 10-fold cross-validation identified key features influencing behaviors, such as weather, self-efficacy (confidence), and penalization/reward structures. SHAP (Shapley Additive Explanations) values, a core XAI tool, further explained feature importance, enhancing the interpretability of the ABM and facilitating actionable policy insights.
Over 1,000 episodes of simulations with 561 agents were trained. Among 14 hypothetical scenarios evaluated, "Free Well Testing + Communication Campaign" was the most effective intervention, with 435 agents participating in testing and highest learning accuracy (77.23%). "Free Well Testing + Regulation" also performed well, with 433 agents and 77.11% accuracy, though with a high error value. "Free Well Testing" alone resulted in 430 agents participating, with high accuracy (76.67%) and low error. Findings demonstrate that free testing will lead to significantly increased testing frequency in Ireland (from 5% to >75%), with many residents testing multiple times a year.
Keywords: agent-based modeling, Deep Q-network (DQN), private well testing, private well owners, public health, reinforcement learning, risk communication, and explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI).
How to cite: Asghar, R., Mooney, S., O’Neill, E., and Hynds, P.: Using agent-based models and EXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) to simulate social behaviors and policy intervention scenarios: A case study of private well users in Ireland, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10274, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10274, 2025.
Agent-based modelling (ABM) is becoming a widely explored method to investigate human-water systems given their ability to represent heterogeneous actors and their decisions. ABM is also a bottom-up approach that can simulate how individuals interact and co-adapt with the environment; this is beneficial for understanding the effects of humans' decisions when facing the risk of hazards and climate change. However, individuals also adapt to organisational measures or lack thereof. This, for example, has been shown with the safe-development paradox, where governments’ hazard management strategies can impact individual risk preparedness. Therefore, ABMs can assist as tools for testing policies for improving flood and drought management.
The implementation of hydrological hazard management in ABMs has not yet been systematically evaluated. In this work, we aim to synthesize current knowledge on how hydrological hazard management and non-individuals are implemented in ABMs by performing a systematic review using the ROSES Protocol. A total of 377 unique articles were screened, and 78 articles were included in a full-text analysis. Our findings show that hydrological hazard management strategies in ABMs vary; both structural measures, such as levee and reservoir construction, and non-structural measures, such as water quota and insurance strategies, are implemented. Yet, there is a focus on individual agents taking measures against hazards in ABMs. Non-individual hazard management is often included as static scenarios or agents with ad-hoc or rational decision-making.
Our study demonstrates that the simplicity of hazard management in these models could limit the ability of the ABMs as a policy tool since the implemented hazard management does not adapt to the dynamics of human-water systems. Involving stakeholders or implementing bounded-rational decision-making could be an important shift to further improve the explanatory power of ABMs for challenges in hydrological hazard management.
How to cite: Schück, F., Arheimer, B., Mazzoleni, M., and Brandimarte, L.: Modelling flood, droughts and humans: A systematic review of hydrological hazard management in agent-based models, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5975, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5975, 2025.
The present study introduces a methodology based on Socio-Hydrological Models Integrated with Agent-Based Models (SHABM) to identify and analyze potential water conflicts in the Longaví River Basin, Chile. This approach combines fieldwork to characterize user profiles, computational modeling, and simulations to explore interactions among water users, governance systems, and hydrological dynamics in a context of limited water resources.The Longaví River Basin is defined by a Mediterranean climate and a pluvial-nival regime that creates marked hydrological seasonality. These conditions, combined with significant agricultural dependency, generate tensions in water distribution. Addressing these conflicts requires tools that integrate technical, social, and environmental factors, which led to the development of the SHABM model.The SHABM model follows the ODD protocol (Overview, Design concepts, and Details) to ensure transparency and reproducibility. It models three main types of actors: the Water Board (WB), responsible for allocating volumetric water quotas; Canal Administrators (CA), who distribute water to users; and Farmers (F), who make individual decisions regarding water use. The model incorporates agent heterogeneity through variables such as personality, crop profitability, water use efficiency, and regulatory compliance.A key contribution of this study is the technological architecture, which uses a modular approach with Python for programming and MongoDB as a non-relational database management system. This architecture manages large data volumes, integrating geospatial, technical, and social information in real time. It also allows for adapting the model to different scenarios and basins, ensuring scalability and interoperability with other systems.Simulation scenarios were implemented under conditions of normal water availability, scarcity (-20%), and abundance (+20%), combined with different levels of institutional oversight (low, medium, high). Data sources included primary inputs, such as user surveys, and secondary inputs, including hydrological records from the Longaví River and crop characterizations.The results indicated that scenarios with low water availability and limited oversight promote conflict emergence, whereas stronger enforcement significantly reduces tensions. The model shows that behavioral patterns are influenced by agents’ personalities and the efficiencies of irrigation infrastructure and technologies.The SHABM model highlights critical areas in the basin where water distribution is most vulnerable to conflict. It also observes that self-serving agents are more likely to disregard distribution rules, amplifying inequalities among users.This study offers a replicable and scalable tool for analyzing socio-hydrological systems, supporting resource managers in exploring adaptive strategies and management scenarios. By integrating socio-hydrological models with ABM, the model captures detailed interactions between human and environmental factors. The technological architecture supports the modeling of complex systems and enhances result visualization and analysis, improving the understanding of patterns and decision-making processes.
Acknowledgments: ANID/FONDAP/1523A0001
How to cite: Lillo-Saavedra, M., Salgado-Vargas, M., Somos-Valenzuela, M., Rivera, D., Gonzalo-Martín, C., García-Pedrero, Á., Boumahdi, M., and Fernandez, A.: Sociohydrological Agent Besed Modeling Framework for Identifying and Addressing Water Conflicts, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-11238, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11238, 2025.
Groundwater resources play a critical role in socio-economic growth, providing vital support for agriculture, industry, and domestic needs. Yet, their sustainable management remains a global challenge due to the complex interdependencies between environmental and socio-economic factors. Traditional hydrogeological investigations, which primarily focus on pollutant sources identification and geochemical processes, often fail to address the dynamic feedback mechanisms, temporal changes, and non-linearities inherent to groundwater degradation. This research adopts a holistic approach – where a systems’ behavior emerges from the interactions of its parts – to unravel the intricate connections between groundwater systems and socio-economic development.
The study aims to identify the key drivers of groundwater degradation and their downstream impacts on socio-economic activities. A System Dynamic (SD) model was employed to capture the reciprocal interactions between hydrological, environmental, and socio-economic factors over time by integrating groundwater quality data (2005-2024), socio-economic indicators (e.g. population growth, urbanization) from the Senegalese National Agency of Statistics and Demography, and remote-sensing data (e.g. Land use changes) with a 10-year time step to reflect physical and chemical system changes. SD is a simulation-based methodology used to analyze and understand the behavior of complex systems over time. It relies on several key principles such as feedback loops, which are closed chains of cause-and-effect relationships where an output of a system influences its input.
The findings present a conceptual framework mapping the relationships between socio-economic and biophysical subsystems, emphasizing the direction and magnitude of change in groundwater resources. This approach highlights the cascading effects of unsustainable groundwater management on socio-economic stability and environmental health. Indeed, the heavy reliance of sectors such agriculture, urbanization, mining, and industry on water resources is expected to escalate demand intensifying withdrawal and causing groundwater depletion. This increases the risk of seawater intrusion aquifer degradation. Additionally, these sectors impact groundwater quality through pollution from inadequate sanitation, irrigation return fluxes, and industrial waste.
This research provides valuable insights for developing sustainable groundwater management strategies in Senegal and similar contexts worldwide. By addressing the feedback loops and interdependencies within groundwater systems, this interdisciplinary approach contributes to advancing water resource management and mitigating the challenges posed to groundwater degradation.
How to cite: Bassene, I., Stumpp, C., and Faye, S.: System Dynamic Unveiled: Exploring Groundwater and Socio-economic ties in Senegal’s North littoral coastal aquifer, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17765, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17765, 2025.
In this study, a new hierarchical sociohydrological model was developed to capture the complex interactions between society and hydrological processes in flood risk management in a multilayered approach. Conventional sociohydrological models tend to treat local communities as a single homogeneous group and do not adequately reflect actual socio-economic heterogeneity and dynamics among different social groups. This model divides society into multiple socio-economic groups (e.g., low-income, middle-income, and high-income groups) and explicitly considers population movement among these groups, flood damage experiences, and group-specific characteristics such as memory loss rates and preparedness awareness ratios. Furthermore, the impact of social interactions on flood risk management is modeled by introducing equations that capture population movement between groups inside and outside the region.
The site of application of this study is the city of San Mateo, Philippines. San Mateo is currently facing rapid urbanization and frequent flooding of the Marikina River. Through a questionnaire survey of local residents, this study determines key model parameters such as the flood memory loss rate, the ratio of preparedness/awareness, and the rate of migration between social groups and outside of the region. Based on these parameters, the study simulates the differences in flood damage and adaptive capacity to flood risk among the different groups, and quantitatively assesses the impact of changes in levee heights and flood experiences on each group.
This study provides a new tool to identify the impact of socio-economic heterogeneity in flood risk management and to assist in the design of realistic and equitable adaptation measures. The usage of a hierarchical model emphasizes the importance of risk assessment and policy making that takes into account social diversity, and demonstrates its applicability to the target site.
How to cite: Arase, N. and Nakamura, S.: Building a Hierarchical Sociohydrological Model for Flood-Induced Migration, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-8606, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-8606, 2025.
Tropical reservoirs serve a crucial role in the efficient management of water resources contributing to public supply, irrigation, and flow regulation. However, they often emerge as significant sources of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and social conflicts. These aquatic ecosystems are located in various Brazilian biomes, such as the Belo Monte Hydroelectric Plant (UHE), situated in the Amazon biome, and the Pedreira and Duas Pontes reservoirs, currently under construction in the Atlantic Forest biome. Each of these reservoirs reflects the complexity of interactions between environmental and social factors, requiring meticulous analysis in light of growing concerns about climate change.
The proposed research includes the collection and analysis of environmental and operational data related to these reservoirs, considering crucial variables such as flooded area, types of aquatic vegetation present, and local climatic data. A central focus of the study is to understand how social practices and land use in adjacent areas influence greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. To achieve this, a comprehensive analysis of agricultural and urban activities that may affect both the availability of organic matter and the decomposition dynamics in the reservoirs is conducted.
The methodology adopted utilizes a socio-hydrological approach, allowing for an in-depth investigation of the interrelationships between social and environmental factors. The research includes the application of the G-Res tool to calculate the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions resulting from management practices in the reservoirs. The aim is to understand the community's perceptions regarding water, conservation practices, and their correlations with GHG emissions, with the goal of providing practical recommendations that promote more efficient and sustainable water management.
The study aims to develop future solutions that address interconnected environmental and social issues, aligning with the goals of water sustainability in Brazil, minimizing GHG emissions, and encouraging sustainable practices; thereby contributing to the conservation of water resources and improving the quality of life for local communities.
Keywords: Tropical Reservoirs, Greenhouse Gases, Sustainable Water Management, Socio-Hydrological Approach, Tropical Biomes.
How to cite: Pileggi, F. and Mario Mendiondo, E.: Analysis of GHG Emissions in Tropical Reservoirs: A Socio-Hydrological Approach in Atlantic Rainforest and Amazon Biomes, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4343, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4343, 2025.
The interplay between human decision-making and hydrological processes shapes the resilience and vulnerability of coupled human-water systems. This study employs a socio-hydrological system dynamics model to investigate maladaptive feedbacks arising from competing short- and long-term adaptation strategies. To this end, we developed a synthetic model where agricultural expansion and ecological restoration vie for limited water resources under varying climate service scenarios. The model highlights how biases favouring short-term responses exacerbate hydrological vulnerabilities and hinder transformative adaptation, creating path dependencies that lock systems into unsustainable trajectories. By integrating variables that simulate decision-making under different typologies of climate services, we simulate scenarios that reveal the trade-offs between immediate economic gains and long-term system sustainability. Our work contributes to advancing hydro-social and socio-hydrological research by providing actionable insights into feedback dynamics, risk management, and governance strategies. It underscores the value of interdisciplinary approaches for understanding complex human-water interactions and designing adaptive water management policies that focus on long-term sustainability and resilience.
How to cite: Biella, R., Mazzoleni, M., Brandimarte, L., and Di Baldassarre, G.: Evaluating the Role of Climate Services in Maladaptive Lock-in Processes: A Socio-Hydrological Modelling Approach, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6122, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6122, 2025.
The Climate Collaboratorium adopts a novel, transdisciplinary approach to address the interplay of climate change, groundwater dynamics, and socioeconomic factors. By combining advanced groundwater modelling with participatory methods, this project intends to develop actionable strategies for sustainable water management for the Sorbian community in Rietschen, Görlitz. This innovative methodology emphasizes collaboration between researchers and the community, ensuring that scientific insights align with local needs and values.
Central to the project is the development of a state-of-the-art groundwater model, incorporating high-resolution spatial and temporal data, along with boundary conditions informed by literature, fieldwork, stakeholder inputs, and sensitivity analyses. This foundational model provides a baseline for understanding groundwater dynamics and serves as a platform for subsequent scenario simulations.
In the second phase, the model will be adapted to evaluate climate change impacts on groundwater resources, integrating regional climate projections and recharge scenarios. Through workshops, community members will co-create socioeconomic scenarios and identify adaptation priorities. These priorities will guide the integration of local economic development plans and social behaviors into the model. To enhance community engagement, innovative methods such as theatrical performances will translate complex scientific findings into accessible and relatable formats.
The final phase will simulate the complex interactions between climate impacts, land use changes, and socioeconomic behaviors under a range of scenarios. This approach enables the identification of key vulnerabilities and supports the development of robust, community-oriented adaptation strategies.
The results will not only benefit the community of Rietschen but also provide transferable insights for similar communities facing groundwater management challenges. Also, comparable studies are going to be applied in Canada, the UK, and the USA to demonstrate the applicability of this approach, highlighting its relevance in diverse sociocultural and environmental contexts.
How to cite: Hartmann, A., Agudelo Mendieta, T. S., and Chen, Z.: Climate Collaboratorium: A Transdisciplinary Approach to Modelling Groundwater Resources for Climate Adaptation in the Sorbian Community of Rietschen (Görlitz, Germany), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19327, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19327, 2025.
Sociohydrology is a field that focuses on coupled human water interactions, bringing about new methods and approaches of assessing and evaluating water-related risk and hazards. Memory has been established in this field as an important factor used to quantify and describe the dynamics of societal attitudes towards environmental challenges. Multiple methods and applications of memory have been published in the years following the field’s inception. With a potentially large amount of variation and nuance, it is important to organize and analyze trends and typologies of the different methods and approaches that have been used to evaluate memory within sociohydrological studies. In this literature review, we synthesize papers within the field of sociohydrology with three objectives: (1) to present the different methods and approaches adopted to assess memory in sociohydrological models, (2) identify possible associations between the different methods and approaches in regards to vulnerability and adaptive capacity, and (3), introduce a conceptual framework of methods and approaches for assessing memory in sociohydrological systems. By identifying the current trends, approaches, and applications of memory, this paper may assist in identifying potential research gaps and clarify future research directions in the nexus between memory and sociohydrological components.
How to cite: Delacruz, B., Dacosta Aboagye, P., Arase, N., and Nakamura, S.: A systematic review of methods and approaches for assessing risk memory in sociohydrology, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5331, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5331, 2025.
Urban drainage networks (UDNs), as one of the most pivotal infrastructures, provide the public with sanitary and safe living environments, primarily by mitigating water-related diseases and hazards. The layout of UDNs and their corresponding drainage area, known as sewersheds, are inevitably linked to the geometric shape of districts in a given urban area and the distribution of people within them. This relation is evident as UDNs expand to meet the increasing demand for drainage services driven by urban expansion. Recent studies have reported remarkable findings that scaling features emerge in the most mature UDN structures, as shown from natural river networks, i.e., their analogy in nature. Such findings are fascinating as they corroborate how self-organizing human unintentionally shape engineered drainage systems over time to exhibit emerging features similar to those of naturally created ones, beyond the influences of topographic conditions and initial engineering criteria for UDN design. Given these innovative outcomes, further interesting questions naturally arise: (1) Can diverse UDNs be organized into archetypes based on the gradients of their scaling features (including cases with a lack of scaling features)? (2) If so, what factors govern the differentiation among individual archetypes? To address the questions, this study analyzed ~200 sewersheds discharging into four major tributaries of the Han River in the megacity of Seoul (~16K people/km², ~605 km²), South Korea. The analyzed UDNs represent an average of ~60% of the total UDNs length across the four tributary watersheds. We identified three archetypes of Seoul’s UDNs based on Horton’s laws, which indicate scaling features and consistent patterns in rivers for the number, the mean length, and the mean drainage area of order-by-order stream: (Archetype I) UDNs satisfying all three of Horton’s laws as found from river networks; (Archetype II) UDNs adhering to Horton’s ratios but not all three laws; (Archetype III) UDNs exhibiting at least one insignificant Horton’s ratios. Particularly, we investigated the roles of topographic (e.g., mean slope, elevation), socio-economic (e.g., population density, fiscal self-reliance), and network structure (e.g., drainage density) conditions of each sewershed. Using publicly open data, we selected ~20 descriptive indicators with low correlations to represent the independent characteristics of network structure, topography, and socio-economic factors. Multigroup analysis and post-hoc tests were employed to identify significant differences among the archetypes. Our findings are expected to not only advance the understanding of UDN structures but also serve as a cornerstone for developing a framework that connects UDN vulnerability to extreme climate conditions through their scaling features.
How to cite: Kim, H. and Yang, S.: Scaling Laws and Archetypes of Urban Drainage Networks in the Megacity Seoul, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5427, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5427, 2025.
Urban rivers have emerged as valuable recreational spaces in Europe in recent years, particularly for bathing, in response to the growing need for cooling and nature-based outdoor activities in cities (Barton & Grant, 2012; Corburn, 2017). While river bathing improves urban livability and strengthens social connections, it remains largely prohibited in France, unlike in other European countries where this practice is seen as generating "social connectivity" (Wuijts, 2022; Kondolf & Pinto, 2017). This restriction has contributed to the rise of unsupervised bathing, which poses significant drowning risks (Sindall et al., 2022), especially in unregulated areas with strong currents. This research focuses on the Lyon metropolitan area (France), where accidental and intentional drownings present a critical public health concern and operational challenge for rescue teams, analyzed through a socio-hydrological lens to explore complex human-water interactions.
Addressing the issues of bathing and the associated risk of drowning in urban rivers requires an interdisciplinary approach, combining geography, epidemiology, hydrology, hydraulics, and experimental methods (Maghakian, 2023). This study emphasizes the importance of focusing on the local scale, to better capture the specific dynamics of drowning risks and develop targeted prevention strategies (World Health Organization, 2017). Two main axes structure the work: (1) an analysis of biophysical, social, and spatial factors influencing drowning risks, based on a comprehensive database of incidents and a survey on both current bathing practices and residents’ projections for river bathing by 2030; (2) the development of practical solutions designed for rescue teams, supported by the study of the accuracy of eyewitness testimonies and experimental drift tests using mannequins to model body trajectories. Through an interdisciplinary focus on the complex dynamics of urban rivers at a metropolitan level, this research provides practical recommendations for both risk understanding and management, enhancing prevention strategies and rescue operations.
Bibliography
Barton, H., Grant, M., 2013. Urban Planning for Healthy Cities. J Urban Health 90, 129–141. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11524-011-9649-3
Corburn, J., 2017. Urban Place and Health Equity: Critical Issues and Practices. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 14, 117. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph14020117
Kondolf, G.M., Pinto, P.J., 2017. The social connectivity of urban rivers. Geomorphology, Connectivity in Geomorphology from Binghamton 2016 277, 182–196. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2016.09.028
Maghakian, C., Navratil, O., Zanot, J.-M., Rivière, N., Honegger, A., 2024. Drowning incidents in urban rivers: An underestimated issue with future challenges in need of an interdisciplinary database to characterise its epidemiology. Environmental Challenges 14, 100822. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envc.2023.100822
Sindall, R., Mecrow, T., Queiroga, A.C., Boyer, C., Koon, W., Peden, A.E., 2022. Drowning risk and climate change: a state-of-the-art review. Injury Prevention 28, 185–191. https://doi.org/10.1136/injuryprev-2021-044486
Wuijts, S., Friederichs, L., Hin, J.A., Schets, F.M., Van Rijswick, H.F.M.W., Driessen, P.P.J., 2022. Governance conditions to overcome the challenges of realizing safe urban bathing water sites. International Journal of Water Resources Development 38, 554–578. https://doi.org/10.1080/07900627.2020.1755617
How to cite: Maghakian, C., Navratil, O., Rivière, N., and Honegger, A.: Urban River Bathing and Drowning: A Comprehensive Socio-Hydrological Challenge Through a Multidisciplinary Approach, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9883, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9883, 2025.
The objective of this study is to compare lithium (Li) concentrations in bottled natural mineral waters and tap water from urban water supplies in Catalonia (NE Spain) and to assess their potential relationships with environmental factors and human health. To achieve this, the chemical composition of 28 bottled mineral water brands marketed in Catalonia has been analyzed, and lithium concentrations in tap water provided by urban supply companies have been compiled.
The highest Li concentrations in bottled mineral waters were observed in the brands Malavella (1250 µg/L), San Narciso (1070 µg/L), and Vichy Catalan (1070 µg/L). These mineral waters originate from Caldes de Malavella (Girona) and are characterized by their thermal origin (58°C), natural carbonation, and high mineralization. Other brands with relatively high lithium concentrations include Aigua de Salenys (619 µg/L) and Aigua de Vilajuïga (570 µg/L). The lithium in these waters is derived from magmatic fractional crystallization and partial melting processes, which concentrate Li in muscovite minerals found in pegmatites and granites. During rock weathering and water-rock interactions, lithium, being highly soluble, is released and transported by water. In contrast, the median Li concentration among the remaining 25 brands of bottled water is 10 µg/L.
In relation to the lithium content of tap water supplied for urban consumption, the company that supplies the Metropolitan Area of Barcelona only controls it. This is because neither European directives nor Spanish regulations currently define a concentration limit for lithium in drinking water. The lithium concentrations of the tap water in the Barcelona Metropolitan Area range between <5 mg/L and 15 mg/L. since the main sources of water supply are river and reservoirs of surface waters.
Emerging research by health organizations has linked the natural occurrence of lithium in drinking water to potential health benefits, such as reduced suicide rates and improved mental health outcomes. However, concerns also exist regarding potential adverse effects, such as impacts on thyroid hormone levels and autism prevalence. This study aims to identify whether drinking water represents a significant dietary source of lithium and to contribute to improving epidemiological research on the health effects of Li. Additionally, the preliminary results provide a reference for the natural lithium background levels in aquatic environments. This baseline can help assess the anticipated impacts of anthropogenic lithium from the growing manufacture and recycling of lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles.
How to cite: Casas, A., Tapias, J. C. T., Folch, M., and Sendros, A.: Lithium in tap and bottled water in Catalonia (NE, Spain): Environmental and health issues, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-10734, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10734, 2025.
Where correctly installed and maintained, domestic wastewater treatment systems (DWWTSs) provide effective, environmentally sustainable wastewater disposal in rural and peri-urban areas. In contrast, poorly sited and/or mismanaged systems can contaminate private drinking water sources and public watercourses, posing a serious environmental health threat. Almost 30% of households in the Republic of Ireland (ROI) rely on DWWTSs, with systems often co-occurring with (unregulated) private domestic groundwater wells or adjoning surface water body margins. Dual reliance on decentralised, private drinking water sources and wastewater disposal in vulnerable catchments places a premium on voluntary system maintenance actions (e.g. desludging). However, despite recent introduction of mandatory, targeted system inspections and ancillary public engagement, system maintenance rates in the ROI remain low. Untreated domestic wastewater discharges pollute almost 10% of low status national water bodies and jeopardise private well water quality due to locally dense rural settlement patterns and historically poor DWWTS installation. The ROI currently reports elevates incidence rates of waterborne illnesses such as Shiga-toxin producing Escherichia coli (STEC), currently almost 10 ten times the EU mean and consistently linked with well water consumption. As such, mitigation of water contamination risk posed by DWWTSs via improved behaviour promotion represents a vital policy measure.
To this end, a national online survey (hosted by SurveyMonkey) was developed to identify and measure key cross-thematic precursors to household DWWTS maintenance measures. The survey considered both actual and conjectural reactions to household DWWTS inspection in addition to behaviour change (i.e., commencement vs. cessation of system maintenance). Preliminary analysis of approximately 500 survey responses found that 71% of Irish system users reported previous system desludging. However, of serviced systems reported to exceed 5 years in age (i.e. warranting ≥ 1 historical desludging events), 20.2% were infrequently desludged. Reported adoption and historical continuity of general system maintenance were both significantly associated with occupancy during system installation (p <0.001, respectively) and self-perceived confidence regarding system management (p <0.001, respectively). Adoption of system maintenance after previous inaction was significantly more likely where prior system issues were reported (p <0.001), highlighting a priori intangibility of system malfunction/contamination risk as a likely behavioural barrier. Subsequent analysis will seek to identify opportunities for optimal intervention strategies via predictive agent-based modelling (ABM) of system maintenance behaviours. Development of weights via respondent policy preferences and cited barriers will be used to inform policy-based scenarios for behaviour promotion and their potential impact on system maintenance behaviours. Adoption of artificial intelligence to delineate optimal interventions from a ‘legislative sandbox’ represents a novel contribution to behavioural research within the socio-hydrogeological paradigm. Resultant findings may help ‘unblock’ current knowledge impediments to mitigation of domestic wastewater-induced water contamination.
Keywords: behaviour change ∙ domestic wastewater ∙ environmental policy ∙ risk management ∙ socio-hydrology ∙ water contamination
How to cite: Mooney, S., Fox-Rogers, L., Asghar, R., and Hynds, P. H.: Establishing control points for promoting bottom-up management of domestic wastewater treatment systems in the Republic of Ireland: A national household survey and research agenda, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18203, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18203, 2025.
Posters virtual: Mon, 28 Apr, 14:00–15:45 | vPoster spot A
EGU25-15437 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS8
Advancing Collaborative Governance and Sustainable Water Management: Transdisciplinary Practices in SociohydrologyMon, 28 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST) | vPA.3
Sociohydrology, an interdisciplinary field exploring the dynamic interactions between human and water systems, has emerged as a critical area of study to address the growing complexity of water management challenges in the Anthropocene. Transdisciplinary practices in sociohydrology extend beyond traditional academic boundaries, integrating diverse knowledge systems, stakeholder perspectives, and real-world practices. These approaches bridge the gap between science and society, enabling the co-creation of solutions that are socially equitable, environmentally sustainable, and contextually relevant. This study explores the transformative potential of transdisciplinary approaches in sociohydrology, emphasizing collaborative governance, stakeholder engagement, and sustainable water management. Drawing on an extensive review of literature and following PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses), the research highlights diverse applications of transdisciplinary methodologies in water management, ranging from integrating citizen science frameworks to fostering adaptive strategies for climate resilience. Case studies spanning the Katari River Basin in Bolivia to community-led monitoring in Australia's Great Barrier Reef illustrate how integrating ecological, social, and economic dimensions can address complex hydrological challenges. These practices underscore the importance of co-producing knowledge among researchers, policymakers, and communities, thus bridging gaps between scientific inquiry and real-world implementation. By synthesizing insights from multi-scalar analyses, the paper offers a framework for designing adaptive, equitable, and sustainable water management strategies. The findings advocate for institutional reforms and capacity-building initiatives to strengthen collaborative governance and propose a roadmap for applying transdisciplinary methodologies to global water crises. This research contributes to the evolving discourse on sociohydrology, emphasizing the need for integrated systems thinking and participatory processes to achieve long-term water security.
How to cite: Kabir, Md. H.: Advancing Collaborative Governance and Sustainable Water Management: Transdisciplinary Practices in Sociohydrology, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-15437, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-15437, 2025.
EGU25-20733 | ECS | Posters virtual | VPS8
Exploring Endogeneity in Psychological Determinants of Community-Based Water Purification Technology AdoptionMon, 28 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST) | vPA.4
The adoption of community-based water purification technology in rural communities is strongly influenced by psychological factors, yet these factors often suffer from endogeneity, leading to biased estimations of their true impact. Our study investigates this critical issue, revealing that traditional estimation methods significantly underestimate the effects of key psychological determinants. Specifically, we found that perceived ease of access and descriptive norms, when treated as exogenous, were underestimated by 175% and 76%, respectively. This oversight highlights the importance of addressing endogeneity to accurately capture the relationship between psychological factors and adoption behavior. The endogenous nature of perceived benefits and descriptive norms highlights a crucial bidirectional relationship: as adoption increases, so do positive social norms and perceived benefits, creating a reinforcing cycle that further drives adoption within the community. Interventions that fail to consider this mutual reinforcement risk undervaluing key psychological factors, potentially undermining their effectiveness. We propose that cultural factors serve as instrumental variables (IVs) to mitigate endogeneity and offer a clearer pathway through which psychological factors influence behavior. For instance, cultural traits such as "work-luck" dynamics shape individuals' proactive or passive approaches to overcoming barriers to technology access. Similarly, generalized morality, which prioritizes communal welfare over individual gain, strengthens descriptive norms that promote widespread adoption. In collectivist societies, these norms hold significant influence, compelling individuals to adopt technologies to maintain social cohesion and uphold communal values.
Our study introduces a robust theoretical framework that integrates cultural factors into the analysis of technology adoption. By leveraging cultural traits, interventions can align more closely with community values, enhancing the likelihood of sustainable adoption. This approach not only provides deeper insights into the dynamics of technology adoption but also offers practical strategies for designing culturally sensitive interventions.
In conclusion, addressing the endogeneity of psychological factors through the lens of cultural influences provides a more accurate and comprehensive understanding of the adoption process. This study advocates for the incorporation of cultural contexts in intervention strategies, ensuring they resonate with the community’s intrinsic values and beliefs. Future research could expand on this dynamic by employing system dynamic models to further explore the bidirectional feedback between psychological factors and behavior, ultimately contributing to more effective and sustainable adoption of community-based water purification technologies.
How to cite: Raj, M., Pande, S., and Ramesh, M.: Exploring Endogeneity in Psychological Determinants of Community-Based Water Purification Technology Adoption, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20733, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20733, 2025.
EGU25-20066 | Posters virtual | VPS8
Enhancing Resilience in Human-Reservoir Systems with NLP and AI FrameworksMon, 28 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST) | vPA.5
The resilience of a large-scale water infrastructure system to cascading effects is
fundamentally dependent on the interdependencies of its components within the
infrastructure network. These interdependencies—which means that the states of
two or more infrastructure components are tightly interrelated through mechanisms
such as physical connection, geographical proximity, and information relay—can
cause a localized event to spread into a system-wide event. Of these, logical
interdependencies remain poorly understood. Little is known about how two
infrastructures affect the state of each other through human decisions and how such
logical connections can be detected and measured. In this study, we tackled this
gap by conducting an applied case study on the Lake Mendocino Reservoir in
California, USA. Crucially, our approach focuses on reservoir institutions (rules)
that structure human decisions around reservoir systems. Reservoir management
relies heavily on operational rules and regulations, but climate change demands
more adaptive and discretionary decision-making by operators. This may further
introduce logical interdependencies in a reservoir system. We develop a novel
framework that integrates Institutional Analysis using Large Language Models to
advance Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques and Bayesian Network
Modeling to systematically analyze and quantify risk associated with logical
interdependencies. We aim to improve decision-making and risk management in
reservoir operations. This research provides essential insights into enhancing the
resilience of water management infrastructures, particularly in the face of climate
change.
How to cite: Gautam, S., Yu, D. J., and Hoon Cheol, S.: Enhancing Resilience in Human-Reservoir Systems with NLP and AI Frameworks, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20066, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20066, 2025.
