Future Extreme Precipitation Trends under Climate Change over the Caspian Sea

Climate change is anticipated to alter the frequency and intensity of climate extremes, with profound implications for vulnerable regions such as the Caspian Sea. This study investigates future changes in extreme precipitation events over the Caspian Sea, a region particularly sensitive to climatic shifts due to its geographical position and isolation from major oceans. Using bias-corrected precipitation data from the General Circulation Models- Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 and historical reference data from ERA5, this research applies advanced extreme value analysis to examine trends under two climate scenarios. The results reveal an increase in average precipitation from the historical period to the future period (1980-2100), highlighting the region’s vulnerability to climate change. Furthermore, the analysis projects a rise in the frequency and magnitude of extreme precipitation events, with more intense droughts and floods expected to emerge. Extreme value distributions fitted to the precipitation data confirm these findings, showing higher tail probabilities for extreme events under future scenarios. These changes underscore the need for climate adaptation strategies to mitigate potential socio-economic and ecological impacts. By providing a comprehensive evaluation of precipitation extremes and their future trends, this study contributes valuable insights into the expected hydrological changes in the Caspian Sea region, which can inform water resource management, disaster risk reduction, and climate policy.