Leveraging digital innovation for drought resilience: Impact-based forecasting and early warning systems

Drought is among the most complex and impactful natural hazards, with profound consequences for ecosystems, agriculture, water resources, and human livelihoods. Addressing drought resilience requires a shift beyond simply predicting the occurrence and location of droughts toward understanding and managing associated risks, mitigating cascading effects such as wildfires and food insecurity, and strengthening adaptive capacity.

Digital technologies, including artificial intelligence and Digital Twins, offer transformative opportunities in this context. These tools enable the processing of extensive datasets, scenario simulation, and the generation of actionable insights to enhance early warning systems. Impact-based forecasting, supported by these innovations, facilitates proactive decision-making across sectors such as water management, agriculture, and disaster mitigation. Case studies from arid regions, including the Mediterranean, demonstrate the potential of these approaches to support timely and targeted interventions.

Despite the potential of digital technologies, significant challenges remain. Issues such as data governance, the establishment of global standards, ethical considerations, and equitable access to advanced tools are critical to ensuring effective and inclusive solutions. Addressing these challenges requires an integrated approach that aligns technological innovation with policy frameworks, governance structures, and societal priorities.

The integration of multi-hazard frameworks, exemplified by systems such as MedEWSa (www.medewsa.eu), highlights the importance of advanced forecasting tools in managing drought risks and their cascading effects. This approach contributes to building resilience in arid regions and supports global efforts to adapt to a changing climate.