Mapping Global Water Resilience Risks for River Basin Governance

Global water resilience is a critical concern for both nature and society in the face of increasing environmental and socio-economic pressures. Numerous studies have produced global maps highlighting a diversity of water-related risks. Yet, efforts to understand the cumulative nature of those risks and how that information can be used for decision-making remain crucial. This study aims to provide an exploratory global mapping of water resilience risks from a social-ecological systems perspective, identifying areas where the erosion of freshwater systems resilience is most under threat. Using a multilayer spatial analysis at the basin and sub-basin scales, we integrate diverse indicators to assess water resilience functions, as described in freshwater resilience frameworks by Falkenmark & Wang-Erlandsson (2021) and Rockström et al. (2014). We have grouped risks to water resilience according to their effects on the social-ecological systems of the basins, having also integrated novel indicators of resilience loss and tipping points of terrestrial and freshwater systems. Based on preliminary findings, our analysis identifies regions where cumulative water resilience risk is most pronounced, highlighting the balance between the number of indicators and the robustness of aggregation methods. Building on Huggins et al. (2022), we propose a typology of water resilience riskscapes to better address the multidimensional and social-ecological nature of resilience loss. We suggest this typology and methodological approach can be used as a foundation for targeted interventions that aim to enhance water resilience for both ecosystems and human communities. Further, we underscore the challenges that the multidimensional and social-ecological nature of the water resilience riskscapes pose for river basin organisations and the governing organisations responsible for responding to changing global dynamics and risks.