A Study on India’s Biospheric Carbon Sink Potential with Changing Climate

With the increasing concern about the anthropogenic emissions lead a globally changing climate, this is a study on the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) being absorbed by plants and ecosystems in India, focusing on a process called Gross Primary Productivity (GPP). About 30% of CO₂ emissions caused by human activity are absorbed by forests and other land areas. This research explores how regional land-use changes, climate, and weather conditions affect its GPP. The study uses FLUXCOM and climate model simulation from the recent past to the future to analyze both past and future CO₂ absorption trends in India, a country especially vulnerable to climate change. Recent data show that the ability of plants in India to absorb atmospheric CO₂ in the form of primary productivity (GPP) has increased. Recent past data from the FLUXCOM experiment shows the regional disparity in selected locations of India, with the Western Ghats region showing the highest increase in GPP in the recent past. While the historical data of CMIP models show an annual GPP growth of 2.37 gC per m² per year, the future projections under high emissions scenarios (SSP585 of CMIP6) suggest this could rise to about 6 gC per m² per year. However, this trend is not uniform across India. Areas like the Northeast, Indo-Gangetic Plains, and Western Ghats are seeing the most significant increases, while some southern regions show little or no growth in the future.

The study also looks at the changes in land use—such as forest loss or crop expansion concerning the spatial distribution of the GPP from the climate model simulations. It is seen that the climate models predict that more rainfall could further impact GPP trends. This research helps improve our understanding of how vulnerable regions like India's ecosystems are responding to climate change, and it emphasizes the need to use real-world data to make climate models more accurate for future predictions.