Prediction of Adverse effects of Geomagnetic storms and Energetic Radiation (PAGER)

The Prediction of Adverse effects of Geomagnetic storms and Energetic Radiation (PAGER) project provides space weather predictions initiated from observations of the Sun, offering forecasts of radiation in space and its effects on satellite infrastructure. Real-time predictions enable the evaluation of surface charging and deep dielectric charging, critical for satellite operations. PAGER provides 1–4-day probabilistic forecasts of the ring current and radiation belt environments, allowing satellite operators to respond to significant threats effectively.

We present models of solar superstorms. We provide and rigorously evaluate probabilistic predictions, demonstrating how data assimilation can significantly improve forecasting accuracy. Leveraging the most advanced codes from the US and Europe, the project performs ensemble simulations and uncertainty quantifications. These innovations, including data assimilation and machine learning, not only enhance current predictive capabilities but also lay the groundwork for realistic modeling of extreme space weather events from the Sun to the Earth’s ionosphere allowing for the data to correct for missing physical processes.