Tropical Teleconnections with Summer Temperature Anomalies in the Eastern Mediterranean

The warming trend in the Eastern Mediterranean summer is faster than the global average. Climate projections indicate that this accelerated summer warming will persist in the coming decades. As the region continues to warm, the likelihood of summer months with extreme temperatures will increase, posing significant societal challenges. Understanding the mechanisms driving summer temperatures in the region is crucial for improving regional climate projections and medium-range weather predictability. This study explores the potential link between the African Monsoon and Eastern Mediterranean summer temperatures. ERA5 reanalysis data, at 0.25° horizontal resolution, were analyzed to examine correlations between the two regions and identify possible connecting mechanisms. Additionally, simulations from the Large Ensemble Single Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (LESFMIP) were utilized to isolate potential explanations for the teleconnection. These simulations also demonstrate that this link exists on both decadal and monthly scales. A significant correlation was identified between Sahel Monsoon activity and Eastern Mediterranean summer temperatures. Wetter summer months in the Sahel were associated with warmer conditions in the Eastern Mediterranean. The dynamic patterns observed during warm summers in the Eastern Mediterranean resemble those during anomalously wet Sahel summers. A poleward shift of the Saharan Heat Low, linked to increased Sahel precipitation, appears to drive circulation changes associated with warmer Eastern Mediterranean summers. Several proposed mechanisms could explain this link, although their validity requires further investigation. Understanding this correlation could enhance regional climate change projections and improve medium-range predictions of extreme weather events in both the Sahel and the Eastern Mediterranean.