Navigating Syria-Jordan WEFE Nexus: Scenarios and Pathways for Sustainable Transboundary Cooperation in the Transboundary Yarmouk River Basin

The interplay between water and agriculture is central to transboundary regions' socio-economic stability and food security, especially under the intensifying impacts of climate change. This study focuses on the water-food-energy-environment (WEFE) nexus between Syria and Jordan in the transboundary Yarmouk River Basin, highlighting the challenges, opportunities, and cooperative strategies required to address a warming climate. Water resources in the Yarmouk River Rasin are critical to both countries as they contribute massively to agricultural production. However, climate variability, political instability, and unsustainable resource management have exacerbated water scarcity, threatening agricultural resilience and regional stability.

This study utilizes the Excel-based IGain4Gains nexus model alongside data on near-future (2025-2050) water resources, usage, and consumption to analyze WEFE synergies and trade-offs in the Yarmouk Basin. Three scenarios for river basin management are explored: business as usual, climate-intensified competition (focused on improving irrigation efficiency and expanding irrigated areas), and climate-resilient cooperation (emphasizing enhanced irrigation efficiency, maintaining current irrigated areas, and increasing transboundary water flows to Jordan). The scenario outputs were validated through stakeholder consultations, providing insights into sustainable transboundary cooperation pathways based on equitable nexus benefits and trade-offs between upstream and downstream users.

The findings highlight that climate-resilient cooperation is the most effective approach to mitigating risks and promoting stability. Key recommendations include implementing water-saving technologies like precision irrigation and wastewater reuse, alongside strengthening institutional frameworks for joint water governance. Advancing adaptation efforts requires regional and international collaboration through targeted funding, capacity building, and knowledge exchange, ensuring policies are aligned with climate-resilient priorities for sustainable resource management.